May 11: E-Stories
InUkraine PuSpeech SitRep TVP BehindLines Russia-China Europe CoalitionWilling Greenland IndiaPakistan Miller CNConsumers RUedu Kosmos482 Vietnam Koshkina Slovakia Denmark Orban Patel
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Coalition of the Willing
President Zelensky: After the conclusion of the summit in Kyiv, we all spoke with president Trump. It was a good conversation — positive and concrete. I am grateful to President Trump. We share a common view: an immediate, full, and unconditional ceasefire is needed for at least 30 days. We propose it begin on Monday, May 12.
We are waiting for Russia’s response. This proposal has been on the table since the talks in Saudi Arabia, when it was first put forward by the United States. Once the ceasefire begins, there will be the best moment for diplomacy. Ukraine is ready for meetings and negotiations in any format.
Max Seddon—Putin’s late night speech: “Putin has invited Ukraine to peace talks in Istanbul this coming Thursday, May 15. This sounds like a way to act like the lack of a peace process is Ukraine's fault – after the US criticized Russian intransigence and Russia rejected a Ukraine-led 30-day ceasefire proposal.” See the next section for more info.
Stories we’re following…
Three more Ukrainian children aged 12 to 16 have been brought back from the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast. Among those rescued is a boy who was only nine years old when his hometown was occupied.
"He was not afraid to defend his pro-Ukrainian stance, despite being bullied by his peers at school with the support of his teachers. The FSB visited his family, threatening to take him away from his mother. However, the boy remained steadfast, refusing to participate in militarised events or sing the Russian national anthem," Prokudin said.
On Saturday morning, local officials in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region said Russian shelling over the past day killed three residents and injured four more. Another civilian man died on the spot on Saturday as a Russian drone struck the southern city of Kherson, according to regional governor Oleksandr Prokudin. An Associated Press tally, based on reports from Ukrainian authorities, found at least 117 civilians have been killed and more than 1,000 injured in Russian aerial attacks since Ukraine announced on 11 March its willingness for a ceasefire.
Macron on Putin’s offer for Ukraine talks: “A first step, but not enough.” Adding that Putin’s looking for a way out — but also just trying to buy time. Trump is over the moon, of course.
Gary Kasparov: Putin is openly calling what he thinks is Trump's bluff. The White House demanded an unconditional ceasefire, or there would be arms to Ukraine and greater sanctions on Russia. Putin responds with more delays and BS. So, is America all bark and no bite? Russia calls the tune?
Kyiv Independent: 'The enemy is right here' — how Ukrainians living under Russian occupation defied Putin's 'Victory Day'
Editor’s Note: The identities of Yellow Ribbon activists who live in Russian-occupied territory have been withheld for security reasons.
"When my child hears about May 9 they almost scream, and so do I," an activist with the Ukrainian Yellow Ribbon civil resistance group currently living in the Russian-occupied town of Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, tells the Kyiv Independent.
"Every week at school, from the very beginning of the semester, my kid has to do something about May 9,'"
"We have learnt all the songs, the Soviet uniform is already lying at home because we were forced to buy it, and every third homework assignment for six months has been about it," they added.
Combat Situation
No new information about the frontlines is available.
TVP: As Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian assaults, we bring you dramatic footage from the “Tsunami” Tank Regiment – an assault brigade of Ukraine’s National Police – showing a coordinated tank fire, as well as precision drone strikes on Russian hideouts. In the Donetsk region, Russian sabotage groups have adopted a new infiltration tactic involving combat divers.
The well-known drone unit “Gostri Kartuzy” from Ukraine’s National Guard identified and eliminated three divers attempting to breach Ukrainian defense lines. As modern warfare continues to evolve in Ukraine, join us on Military Mind for updates and more footage straight from the battlefield.
Behind the Lines
AFP: US and China meet in 'important step' towards de-escalating trade war.
Senior US and Chinese officials were meeting in Geneva Saturday in what Chinese state media described as an "important step" towards resolving the trade war sparked by President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were holding talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, in the first such negotiations between the world's two largest economies since Trump slapped steep new levies on China last month and Beijing's robust retaliation.
"The contact in Switzerland is an important step in promoting the resolution of the issue," a commentary published by China's state news agency Xinhua said.
It provided no further details on the progress of closed-door discussions, which began mid-morning Saturday and were due to continue on Sunday.
The talks were being held at the residence of the Swiss ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, a discrete villa with sky blue shutters near a large parc on the left bank of Lake Geneva.
CNN: Pentagon considers shifting Greenland to US Northern Command, sparking concerns over Trump’s ambitions for the territory.
On its face, the idea of putting Greenland under NORTHCOM authority makes some logical sense given it is part of the North American continent, though politically and culturally, it is associated with Europe and is a semiautonomous territory of Denmark. Some of the discussions pre-date Trump’s return to office this year, the sources said.
Still, several US officials expressed wariness about the move because of Trump’s repeated insistence that the US “needs” Greenland and his refusal to rule out military action to obtain it.
“We need Greenland very badly,” Trump said. “Greenland is a very small amount of people, which we’ll take care of, and we’ll cherish them, and all of that. But we need that for international security.”
Putting Greenland under US Northern Command would at least symbolically split Greenland from Denmark, which would still be overseen by US European Command. Danish officials are concerned about the message that could send suggesting that Greenland is not a part of Denmark, one of the sources familiar with the deliberations said.
For US NORTHCOM, though, Greenland is an important vantage point for any potential enemy craft coming from that direction towards the United States. The unclassified version of the US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment mentioned Greenland four times, within the context of adversaries like China and Russia seeking to expand their influence there.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
The Kosmos-482 spacecraft, launched by the Soviet Union in 1972 for Venus exploration, crashed into the Indian Ocean on 10 May. The spacecraft is reported to have entered the dense layers of the atmosphere at 09:24 Moscow time, 560 km west of the Middle Andaman island, before crashing into the ocean west of the Indonesian capital of Jakarta. "The Kosmos-482 spacecraft has ceased to exist, having left orbit and crashed into the Indian Ocean," Russia said.
Reuters: Kim Jong Un says North Korea's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war is "justified" and a sovereign act in defense of a "brother nation". He warned of military action if U.S. "provocations against Russia" continue.
Putin has attended a working lunch with the leader of Vietman’s Communist party, Tô Lâm, in Moscow on Saturday.
Witkoff’s Interpreter—much more than the eye meets: NBC reports that, shockingly, during his latest Moscow pilgrimage Witkoff met with Putin and his two negotiators alone and without his own interpreter, relying - in breach of protocol - on a locally present one. Witkoff believes that the intepreter, Natalia Koshkina, was cleared by the US Embassy. In the video below, Witkoff on his meetings with Putin.
Christo Grozev: So what embassy is the interpreter from? Obviously there's no Russian embassy in Moscow (unless Witkoff thinks so), so a logical conclusion is that he was assured she was, hm, sent by or approved by the US embassy? Anyway, let's look at who she is.
She apparently is the government appointed interpreter for key Russian political figures, such as Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev.
More worryingly, she's also apparently the interpreter for the head of Russia's foreign intelligence agency, Naryshkin.
Natalia Koshkina: born 1991. Currently she works as second secretary of the Russian MFA's linguistics department..but a few years ago she worked as third secretary of the Russian mission to NATO in Brussels.. almost certainly not am interpreter job.
Leaked social insurance records show that in addition to being employed by the MFA, she is also working for the holding company of RT, the Kremlin's propaganda mouthpiece. So the question is: did Witkoff really think she was sent by the US embassy? Or did, maybe worse, the UA embassy in Moscow endorse her as a "neutral" interpreter for a negotiation where lives of hundreds of thousands of people - plus the security of half the world - were at stake?
Meduza: Russia is preparing to roll out its reactionary 'family studies' curriculum to schools nationwide.
Schooling in Russia continues to grow more politicized. On the one hand, there’s a strong emphasis on patriotism: in the Education Ministry’s “patriotic” lesson series, Important Conversations, the curriculum focuses on “love for the motherland"; in some schools, children write letters to soldiers, learn to march, and even operate drones. On the other hand, schools are giving increasing attention to family values and “traditional" upbringing. With new restrictions on "childfree propaganda," large families with numerous children are now presented as a national ideal.
In the 2024–2025 academic year, some regions began piloting a new subject called “family studies,” and starting next year, it’s set to be introduced nationwide. The course aims to prepare boys to become Russia’s future warriors and “defenders,” while its messages for girls are focused on family and motherhood.
CNN: China has spent billions developing military tech. Conflict between India and Pakistan could be its first major test.
The escalating conflict between India and Pakistan could be offering the world a first real glimpse into how advanced Chinese military technology performs against proven Western hardware – and Chinese defense stocks are already surging.
Shares of China’s AVIC Chengdu Aircraft rose 40% this week, as Pakistan claimed it used AVIC-produced J-10C fighter jets to shoot down Indian combat aircraft – including the advanced French-made Rafale – during an aerial battle on Wednesday.
Still, as Pakistan’s primary arms supplier, China is likely watching intently to find out how its weapon systems have and potentially will perform in real combat.
NPR: Chinese consumers are spending less amid trade war and economic headwinds.
China's plan is to try to offset the tariffs and shrink external demand for its products by pumping up domestic demand. This week, it rolled out a major stimulus package that includes more subsidies to encourage consumer spending.
"With a 1% to 2% increase in Chinese households' consumption as a share of GDP, these can more than offset the impact of the tariffs imposed by President Trump," argues David Daokui Li, an economist at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
But Chinese consumers' wallets are not so easily pried open. China's economy was facing stiff headwinds even before Trump’s tariffs.
China's GDP growth has slowed. The property sector, which accounts for 70% of China's household wealth, suffered a jarring correction. Youth unemployment has remained stubbornly high.
There are signs of belt-tightening abound on Chinese city streets, where diners pack restaurants offering 40 cent breakfasts, and stores hold flash sales and wage price wars with competitors.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has said he will seek to block the REPowerEU plan, which provides for the EU's rejection of Russian gas and other energy resources from the country.
"If it takes all 27 countries to agree, we will use our veto power on the ban on imports of all types of energy resources," Fico said during a meeting with Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 9 May.
"If they decide to vote by majority instead of unanimously, then the great powers will simply make the decisions themselves," Fico said.
In the EU…
European leaders on a joint visit to Kyiv have issued an ultimatum to Putin: sign up to an unconditional ceasefire by Monday, or face increased sanctions and weapons transfers to Ukraine. The leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Poland, together with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, made a joint phone call to Donald Trump prior to making the announcement. It was the first time the leaders of the four European nations (France, the UK, Germany and Poland) hadmade a joint visit to Ukraine. “We are clear the bloodshed must end. Russia must stop its illegal invasion,” the leaders said in a joint statement.
Zelensky told reporters that the ceasefire should cover air, sea and land, and said that if Moscow refused, it would face new sanctions, including the strengthening of punitive measures targeting its energy and banking sectors. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying on Friday that Russia supported the implementation of a 30-day ceasefire, but only with due consideration of “nuances”.
Ukrainska Pravda: Türkiye is prepared to participate in monitoring compliance with a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
During the online meeting, Hakan Fidan reaffirmed Türkiye’s commitment to Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty, expressing Ankara's support for an unconditional ceasefire.
He reiterated that Ankara stands firmly in favour of establishing an unconditional ceasefire in the ongoing conflict and is committed to supporting efforts to achieve this.
"Fidan also expressed Türkiye's readiness to fulfill its responsibilities in monitoring a ceasefire if one is established for the conflict, which is now in its fourth year," the statement said.
“The idea of a buffer zone is dead” — no official proposals were made, and a 15 km pullback risks losing Kherson, Kharkiv, and Sumy, Zelensky said at a press conference. “If our troops aren’t in Kherson — there won’t be a Kherson. We’ve seen this before in 2014,” he stressed. Germany's Merz comments on Taurus missiles for Ukraine and confirms that future arms supplies will be classified.
No extra conditions — Russia must come to the table for a 30-day ceasefire, said Macron and Starmer. Otherwise, new sanctions will follow. Merz added Germany will continue financial support and help push peace talks. The US and partners are ready to help monitor the ceasefire.
Starmer also said UK experts and EU partners were working to “boost Ukraine’s economy” in a bid to support the invaded country’s stability long-term. Speaking at the ‘coalition of the willing’ meeting in Kyiv on Saturday, the UK prime minister said “securing Ukraine’s future for the longer term” had been discussed, with measures including the resumption of flights to Ukraine.
EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen backed a proposed unconditional 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine and said that the EU is ready to impose further biting sanctions on Russia in the event of a breach of a ceasefire. “The ball is now in Russia’s court. We stand ready to maintain strong pressure on Russia and impose further biting sanctions in the event of a breach of a ceasefire,” said von der Leyen.
Denmark will allocate nearly €830M to Ukraine’s defense industry under the "Danish model," as announced by its Defense Ministry. It's unclear whether this is new aid or part of the EU's package announced yesterday, funded by frozen Russian assets, with Denmark mentioned by PM Shmyhal in that context.
Trump sends message to Putin and Zelensky: “To both sides — end this war. Russia and Ukraine are losing around 5,000 people each week. This senseless war must stop. That’s my message to both leaders.”
EU has alternative plans if Hungary vetoes Ukraine's accession, Kallas says. "We have a plan B and a plan C. But our focus is plan A, the essence of which is to get everyone's support" for Ukraine's accession, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said.
Orban's Hungary launches an unprecedented hate campaign against Ukraine and the EU. In Hungary, it looks as if the authorities have adopted the "two-minute hate campaigns" from George Orwell's dystopian novel "1984" – with the only difference being that in Hungary, instead of two minutes a day, they last around the clock. Their core idea: an apocalypse is threatening Hungary from the east, namely Ukraine, and in the west, "Brussels" is pulling the strings.
OC Media: Georgian officials slam EU over candidate meeting snub. According to IPN, when asked why Georgia was not invited to join the meeting, Germany’s Ambassador to Georgia, Peter Fischer, cited the EU’s decision in June 2024 to ‘suspend high-level contacts with the Georgian government until it resolves the current crisis’.
At the time, the ruling Georgian Dream party had just passed its foreign agent law. It has since won a parliamentary election disputed by the opposition and has announced its intent to freeze its EU membership bid.
‘I hope that Georgia, as a country, with all its citizens, will return to the right path. We hope, but it depends on Georgia. And what is Georgia? Georgia is the Georgian people, and when joining the European Union, not only the government becomes a member, not only the parliament becomes a member, not only the business sector, but everyone’, Fischer said.
In other news…
India, Pakistan agree to 'full and immediate ceasefire,' Trump says. The announcement follows mounting fears that the two nuclear-armed countries were on the brink of engaging in another full-scale war.
Overnight diplomacy: US President Donald Trump made the surprise ceasefire announcement on social media, saying it came after a night of talks mediated by Washington. An Indian source downplayed US involvement, while a Pakistani official praised Washington’s role in the talks.
Stephen Miller says the White House is looking into suspending habeas corpus, which protects people from unlawful detentions: "A lot of it depends on whether the courts do the right thing or not."
“Well the Constitution is clear that the privilege of the writ of Habeas Corpus can be suspended at a time of invasion. So it is an option that we are actively looking at.” - Stephen Miller
Ken Dilanian: There is concern that Kash Patel is not taking his FBI Director role seriously. His intelligence briefing went from 5 days a week to 2 days a week because wasn't showing up on time. When he does attend, his briefers find it hard to hold his attention. He's been traveling around the country on FBI jets, spotted at hockey games and UFC fights with celebrities.