May 12: E-Stories
InUkraine SitRep BehindLines Russia-China Europe US HumanSafari PolandElex ReactionPutin TrumpQatar Budanov RUPeace? Bruce Panyi Mutler Burton Weiss EPP Barrot Macron DanSimion CforCD Georgia
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
May 9th Premonition: I realise this is not very serious…but lots of fun nontheless.
Rubio to visit Turkey amid renewed push for Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to to Antalya, Turkey, for a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting from May 14–16, where he is expected to address the war in Ukraine and push for stronger Allied defense commitments.
Trump placing the blame on Ukraine once again. The terms of the conditions set by Russia are those that were presented in Turkey in March 2022, and were unacceptable to the Ukrainians.
Stories we’re following…
APF—Truce finished: Russia on Sunday launched a drone attack on Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine, injuring one person in the region surrounding the capital and damaging several private homes, Ukrainian officials said. The attack began around 2am this morning, with Russian forces launching 108 drones (including decoys) from multiple directions, Ukraine’s air force said.
Ukrainian air defence systems had shot down 60 drones launched across the eastern, northern, southern, and central regions of Ukraine as of 09.30am, the country’s air force said.
Seven residents of Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts were injured as a result of Russian attacks on 10 May. Russian troops attacked Kharkiv Oblast with 13 guided aerial bombs, a Lancet UAV and a FPV drone.
Russian forces launched a drone attack on Kyiv Oblast on the morning of 11 May, causing destruction in two districts near the Ukrainian capital. A man, around 71, was injured in a Russian strike on the Brovary district. He has suffered an acute stress reaction and is in shock.
Russian forces launched more than 360 attacks on 11 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past 24 hours.
Lithuania’s foreign minister, Kęstutis Budrys, has condemned Russia’s continuing attacks on Ukraine despite Vladimir Putin’s offer for talks on Thursday (for context: overnight, the Ukrainian air force said Russia attacked Ukraine with 108 drones).
“Putin’s answer to yet another ceasefire proposal: a swarm of 100 drones raining down on Ukraine overnight,” Budrys wrote in a post on X. “Putin is playing his usual game – wielding terror as leverage and stalling for time to avoid any real path to peace.”
Zmina Ukraine: Former Kherson Mayor Volodymyr Mykolayenko was kidnapped by russians in Apr 2022. He was meant to be exchanged but gave up his spot for a seriously ill fellow prisoner. russians refused to include him in exchange lists ever since. Currently, Volodymyr is being held illegally in inhumane conditions without medical care. russia is a terrorist state.
Combat Situation
On the Pokrovsk front, Russian armor tried to push through — but the 3rd National Guard Brigade “Spartan” and nearby units were ready. The tank lit up the sky in a fireball, and the crew didn’t make it out.
Russian sources report Ukrainian forces are trying to break through Tetkino, Kursk region, in small infantry groups without armoured vehicles.
Budanov on Russian naval capabilities: “We have completely blocked the Black Sea Fleet in the waters near the port of Novorossiysk,” said Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, commenting on the effectiveness of Magura sea drones. Naval drone operations became a central focus of the documentary "Sea Battle: The Drone Era" by Artem Shevchenko. The film covers the destruction of enemy ships, boats, and aircraft — including Mi-8 helicopters and Su-30 fighter jets.
The Times: The UK military is sending decoy models of air defence systems and tanks to Ukrainian troops, designed to deceive Russian forces into targeting fake weapons instead of real ones.
The decoys are part of a strategy to make it appear as though Ukraine has received more weapons from the UK than it actually has. The goal is to trick Russian forces into expending valuable resources on destroying cheap, printed models, rather than attacking real military equipment.
"We haven’t gifted a huge amount of these, so anything we can do to make the quantities look greater on the front line is advantageous to us," explained Squadron Leader Lowri Simner from the Royal Air Force.
US approves transfer of 125 long-range missiles, 100 Patriots from Germany to Ukraine, NYT reports. The American-made weapons cannot be exported, even by a country that owns them, without approval from the U.S. government.
Behind the Lines
Google has announced (via Android Headlines) the discovery of new Russian spyware called LostKeys, which is used by the ColdRiver hacker group linked to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). The software is designed to steal files and system data from Western organisations.
The Google Threat Intelligence Group (GTIG) reports that LostKeys is used in targeted ClickFix attacks, based on social engineering and beginning with a fake CAPTCHA. Victims are deceived into running malicious PowerShell scripts, allowing additional malware to be downloaded and executed. The primary aim is to install LostKeys, which functions like a digital vacuum cleaner, extracting files, directories and system information. Hackers also deploy other malware, particularly SPICA, to retrieve documents.
The ColdRiver Group has been active since 2017 and is known by other names such as Star Blizzard and Callisto Group. It has reportedly become more active in recent years, especially since Russia invaded Ukraine. The group specialises in cyber-espionage, targeting government and defence institutions, think tanks, politicians, journalists and non-governmental organisations.
Tim White: Russia state news agency's list of Putin's key points in his speech tonight, which began at 01:45 Moscow time.
Head of Ukraine's Presidential Office Andriy Yermak: First, 30 days of silence — then, the next steps. He emphasized that a ceasefire is the beginning of the path to ending the war and a real test of Russia’s willingness to stop the violence.
Predictable: Putin’s aide Ushakov says talks in Istanbul should be based on the 2022 proposals and the current “situation on the ground” — meaning Russia keeps occupied land. The 2022 Istanbul deal was a blueprint for Ukraine’s surrender. Not a basis for peace.
According to an investigation by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Sistema, Russia’s initial six-page draft agreement, presented on March 7, 2022, demanded Ukraine reduce its military to just 50,000 troops and surrender its ability to develop or deploy long-range missiles or other advanced weapons.
The draft also required Ukraine to recognize Russia’s control over Donetsk and Luhansk, reinvest in the war-torn regions under Russian terms, and de facto legalize Soviet and communist symbols.
"The Istanbul accords happened 30 days after the invasion, and the demands in Istanbul were fairly significant on a very weakened Ukraine," said Keith Kellogg, U.S. presidential envoy for Ukraine, during a March 6 discussion at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Michael Weiss: “This isn’t what was on the table: a 30-day ceasefire without conditions, starting Monday, as a prelude to serious peace talks. He wants to enter unserious peace talks with no ceasefire. Clearly a trap designed for Trump/Witkoff to see Russian flexibility where there is none.”
Spoxwoman US State Dept, Tammy Bruce: "We’ll judge Russia by actions, not words,". Indeed, given how many times Russia has broken its word, talk is cheap. Concrete steps are what matter.
The Guardian: 'There can be no dialogue while civilians are being bombed' - Macron. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has responded to Vladimir Putin’s proposal in a post on X this morning. He wrote:
In Kyiv and alongside President Trump, we made a clear proposal: an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday. President Zelenskyy committed without setting any condition. We now expect an equally clear response from Russia.
There can be no negotiations while weapons are speaking. There can be no dialogue if, at the same time, civilians are being bombed. A ceasefire is needed now, so that talks can begin. For peace.
Hungary has postponed consultations with the Ukrainian delegation on national minorities, originally set for May 12. The talks, expected to be the start of regular negotiations, were planned in Uzhhorod, where the Ukrainian team had already arrived.
Scabolz Panyi: This pro-Orbán propaganda account “Based Hungary” fantasizing about a Hungarian military occupation of Western Ukraine is followed, among others, by Hungary’s Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky.
“Operation Turul" Coming Soon.... Transcarpathia's Return to the Motherland.”
Fugitive Polish ex-deputy justice minister Marcin Romanowski’s Budapest hideout has been uncovered in this OSINT gem by M.Szwedek. Not only did Orbán grant Romanowski asylum—he’s also on the government payroll via The Centre (@alapjogokert), a state-funded conservative lobbying front.
DW: Russian billionaires are wealthier than ever with 15 Russian newcomers to the Forbes Rich List — despite sanctions over the war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Kim Jong Un says North Korea's involvement in Russia's war 'part of sacred mission.' "Our involvement in the war was justifiable, and this belongs to our sovereign rights," North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un said. "I regard this as part of the sacred mission we must execute for our brothers and comrades-in-arms."
Bloomberg: The US embassy in China said it received reports that American citizens are being subjected to “invasive medical testing” upon arrival in the country.
“We are looking into these reports,” the embassy in Beijing said in a response to a query by Bloomberg. “The U.S. Mission to China has no greater priority than the safety and security of U.S. citizens in China.”
A US citizen on a plane that arrived at Pudong International in Shanghai on May 2 told Bloomberg all foreign passport holders on the flight were corralled into an area after landing. A Chinese inspector scraped their tongues with a swab repeatedly, the person who was a former genetics researcher said, asking not to be identified for privacy reasons.
The passengers on the plane that was from the UK weren’t told why they were swabbed or what the samples would be used for, the person said.
Times Radio: “Putin’s war in Ukraine has been a disaster for Russians economy.” Russians economy has been hit by the fact that “no one is queuing up any more for Russia’s weapons because they have massively underperformed”, says economist Tim Ash.
Robert Zubrin: Aleksandr Dugin, Vladimir Putin, and Donald Trump
Aleksandr Dugin has been described as the Kremlin’s chief ideologue for his substantial influence on Russian politics, promoting nationalist and traditionalist themes and publishing extensively on Russia’s central role in world civilization. He is also a long-time supporter of Donald Trump, and in his new book, The Trump Revolution: A New Order of Great Powers, Dugin celebrates the election of America’s 47th president as the culmination of his life’s work.
In an earlier article in Skeptic, I called Dugin “a mystical high priest of Russian fascism who wants to bring about the end of the world,” but also noted that is he is a philosopher who specializes in the study and use of ideologies. In the 1990s, Dugin set himself the task of synthesizing a new ideology to replace the defunct communist movement as the foundation for the Kremlin’s international fifth column. For a while he played with the idea of uniting all antiliberal ideologies, including socialism, fascism, and ecologism, into a single allegedly profound “fourth political theory.”
Ultimately, however, Dugin was drawn toward the Third Reich’s National Socialism, which he found to be admirable. Dugin came to realize that the essence of Nazism was not its historical particulars, but Hitler’s key political insight, namely that there is no contradiction between nationalism and socialism. On the contrary, it is only by invoking the tribal instinct that a leader can arouse the passion needed to realize the full collectivist program, whose top priority is not the collectivization of property, but the eradication of individual reason and conscience through the collectivization of minds.
EUvsDisinfo: Russia tries to rewrite history and monopolise victory over Nazism. Don’t be deceived by the Kremlin's false accusations of Nazism to justify Russia's present day aggression.
In the EU…
The UK has delivered 8 RAVEN air defense systems to Ukraine, with 5 more awaiting shipment. Since deployment, RAVEN systems have launched over 400 ASRAAM missiles, mainly against Shahed drones.
Riho Terras of the EPP Group in the EU Parliament: “President Vučić’s attendance at Putin's military parade contradicts European Union values and shows support for Ukrainian genocide.”
Le Monde: "The Americans are now showing a very pronounced form of irritation with Russia's position. We have reached a point where we will no longer wait for an official response from Moscow to announce a ceasefire and the consequences it may have."
Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský has stated that while Ukraine and the international community are demanding that Russia stop the fighting, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin wants to continue the war he has unleashed.
Le Parisien: Macron has expressed support for the idea of deploying foreign troops in Ukraine and estimated the number of soldiers that could be deployed. Macron noted that deploying foreign troops to Ukraine is necessary to "stabilise the situation" after the cessation of hostilities with Russia.
"You must understand that authority does not depend on numbers. Today, the largest army in Europe is the Ukrainian army, with a million soldiers enlisted. No other army can gather that many people. The main thing is the presence of troops in Ukraine."
French FM Barrot: Europe wants a seat at the table — but only after a ceasefire. He says Europe's united call, backed by the U.S. and Ukraine, for an unconditional 30-day truce pushed Putin to take "a step in the right direction." Talks can't happen under fire — not after Bucha. Peace starts with silence.
Spiegel: Germany will not disclose its future arms transfers to Ukraine to maintain “strategic ambiguity”. This includes the will they/won’t they matter of Taurus cruise missiles, which Merz said he was willing to send pending consultation with allies. Whether rocket launchers, tanks, or air defense systems: The previous government posted information online on all weapons systems delivered to Ukraine. This practice is now largely over.
Merz was surprised by the agreement of positions with Trump, — Der Spiegel "We came to an unexpectedly high level of agreement in assessing what we should do now. USA is ready to continue negotiations with Europe."
The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, will attend the informal Nato foreign ministers meeting in Turkey between 14- 16 May to discuss ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“Looking towards the Nato summit in The Hague this June, the secretary will advance President Trump’s agenda of ensuring that our allies contribute their fair share to making Nato stronger and more effective,” the state department said in a statement.
Over 20k people are gathered on Sunday afternoon in Bucharest to show their support for Nicusor Dan and Romania's European path. The size of the crowd is still rapidly growing. Nicusor Dan is scheduled to address it in approximately 1.5h from now.
Alison Mutler: Romania’s Post-Election Foreign Policy in the Balance
A 38-year-old nationalist has won the first round of the closely watched presidential election re-run. George Simion has not yet taken power but is the favorite to become president and so take control of Romanian foreign policy.
Simion, who opposes military aid to Ukraine and who wears a MAGA red baseball cap during campaigning, won 41% in the first round on May 4, far more than opinion and exit polls predicted. He will face the pro-European mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan (21%), in the May 18 second round.
Dan, an independent, narrowly pipped the government candidate, Crin Antonescu, thanks to votes from the large diaspora. In the aftershock of the result, Romania’s Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu resigned, and Catalin Predoiu, the Liberal Interior Minister, was appointed interim premier. The Social Democrats also announced they were pulling out of the coalition, leaving a minority two-party administration. If Simion wins the runoff, it seems likely the Social Democrats and Simion’s AUR would form a government.
Simion seeks to reverse Romania’s help to Ukraine and is critical of the European Union. He has promised to name Georgescu as prime minister or appoint him to another position in high office.
Dan, a 55-year-old mathematician, has pledged to strengthen Romania’s ties with Europe and keep Romania on its pro-Western course. To win, he will need to convince his rivals’ voters to swing behind him and stir some interest among the 47% of Romanians who did not vote. The biggest winner from May 4 was apathy, which outstripped Simion’s share by 6%.
Simion’s overwhelming first-round win in a field of 11 was fueled by anger and claims that voters’ democratic rights had been trampled on. He used a sophisticated and grievance-laden social media campaign to appeal to those mostly rural voters disillusioned by worsening corruption and concerned that the prosperity in big cities was not mirrored in their lives.
With a Simion presidency, Romania risks losing its reputation as a predictable Western ally amidst a populist revolt against the liberal order that would align him with Viktor Orban in Hungary and Robert Fico in Slovakia.
It would unsettle investors, and a strategic change in its position toward Ukraine could undermine its neighbor’s war effort.
Simion has promised to “take back control” from Brussels, negotiate Romania’s EU budget contributions, and prioritize “Romania first” policies.
TVP: In this episode of On the Record, host Aaron Dahmen speaks with Aleks Szczerbiak, and Anna Wojciuk about the deeper conservative forces shaping politics across Europe - just weeks before the Polish presidential election.
Why Poland is the next test case. The vote is set to be a referendum on the country’s pro-EU governing coalition and will send a signal beyond Poland’s borders on whether Warsaw will continue its growing leadership within the European Union, or revert back to a path of Euroscepticism. Aaron Dahmen and his guests also analyze the impact of Donald Trump, NATO and EU skepticism, and how Poland's leading presidential candidates are pivoting further to the right as polling day nears.
The Guardian: Is Russia co-opting US far-right groups to attack western democracies?
A former Pentagon contractor works with secretive sections of US special forces, then ups and moves to Russia. He gets married, radicalizes and starts popping up on Telegram channels as the leader of a neo-Nazi terrorist group recruiting Americans.
While this sounds like something Tom Clancy would write, it is reality: Rinaldo Nazzaro, better known as the leader of the Base, once worked in drone targeting with the US Special Operations Command in Iraq and Afghanistan. Recently, the Guardian revealed allegations from inside the Base that he was long suspected of working with the FSB, one of Russia’s main intelligence services.
If true, the startling revelation about Nazzaro fits into the Kremlin’s well-documented global mission of co-opting far-right and criminal organizations to carry out attacks on western democracies.
That mission is very much alive and well.
“The Kremlin plays the long game and is highly invested in developing assets that can be used to wreak havoc in the west,” said Colin Clarke, a geopolitics expert and director of research at the Soufan Center who has closely followed Russia’s flurry of sabotage operations around the world. “Russian intelligence services are using far-right terror groups to their advantage.”
Georgia: Pro-MEGOBARI Act march in Tbilisi
In other news…
India has opened a gate on the Chenab River dam, letting water flow toward Pakistan — right as a fragile ceasefire holds. This comes after India suspended a key water treaty following the Kashmir attack. It's still unclear whether this move is routine or tied to the ceasefire.
An order was lifted on Saturday to confine around 160,000 people in Spain’s northeastern Catalonia region after a fire at an industrial estate caused a toxic cloud of chlorine over a wide area, the regional government said.
LBC: Passengers travelling to and from Stansted Airport are facing travel chaos following a power outage triggered by an IT meltdown. The IT glitch has caused widespread disruption at the Essex airport, with long delays expected and further disruption to flights. Over the past few months, the UK has been the victim of various grey zone attacks on electrical and transportation systems.
Eitan Fischberger: Qatar to Gift $400 Million Plane to President Trump
According to ABC News, the Trump administration is set to accept a luxury Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet—valued at around $400 million—from the Qatari royal family.
The plane will serve as Air Force One for Trump until just before he leaves office, after which ownership will transfer to his presidential library foundation.
Sources say this may be the most valuable gift ever given to the U.S. by a foreign government.
Attorney General Pam Bondi and Trump’s White House lawyer David Warrington concluded the arrangement is legally permissible.
Bondi—who herself was a registered foreign agent for Qatar—provided the legal memo approving the deal.
The DOJ and White House determined the gift does not constitute bribery, since it isn’t tied to any official act.
Bondi also argued it doesn’t violate the Constitution’s ban on foreign gifts because it’s being given to the U.S. Air Force and, later, a nonprofit.
Neither the White House, DOJ, nor the Qatari embassy responded to ABC’s requests for comment.
Experts note the aircraft’s $400 million price tag doesn’t include the additional security and communications upgrades needed for presidential transport.
CNN: India and Pakistan agreed to a halt in fighting Saturday after days of back-and-forth strikes. The two sides traded accusations of ceasefire violations within hours, as explosions rocked several parts of Kashmir, but both countries have called to maintain the truce.
CNN: Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is awaiting trial at The Hague for crimes against humanity, over a brutal war on drug dealers that killed possibly thousands of people, including many innocents and bystanders, with barely any kind of due process. None of this affects the 80-year-old’s eligibility for the role of mayor of Davao – a job he held, on and off, for two decades. Under Philippine election law, only a criminal conviction in a local court can keep a candidate off the ballot.