May 14: Justin Moorehead, Russia's interest in Ireland

Thread published on May 10, 2023

Justin Moorehead, Why is Russia interested in Ireland?

Let's recap on events. Four officials of the Russian embassy in Ireland were expelled, Russia planned to expand its embassy in Ireland, Russian warships are frequently sighted off the Irish coast, Irish MEPs have been listed as Russian propagandists and the Ditch website has been accused of links to Russia.

This can all be explained away quite easily as paranoia. The war in Ukraine is being exploited by a scaremongering centrist dad dominated media, an unpopular Irish government blame shifting Russia, and Fellas like myself pedaling Russian conspiracy theories. Paddy Cosgrave would approve 👍.

That explanation doesn't really stack up with the facts though. Russia is busy committing genocide in Ukraine so Ireland should be the least of Russia’s worries. Instead Russia has been creating non-stop drama in Ireland and Russia clearly has interests in Ireland. Why?

To get a better sense of Ireland's relevance during a major war in Europe, let's start with a quote from Winston Churchill's WWII victory address 👇.

Churchill was referencing the role Ireland played in keeping the supply lifeline open between the UK and the US. Neutral Ireland refused the allies the use of its ports during WWII, thereby reducing options for the allies and increasing their losses in the battle of the Atlantic.

But that was then and this is now. Is a WWII analogy relevant today in terms of Ireland's importance? It probably depends on the scenario. Russia will be aware that millions of American troops passed through Ireland during the war on terror.

It's in Russia's interest to keep Ireland out of NATO and so it is in Russia's interest to have an Irish government in power that is dedicated to strict Irish neutrality. The current government is not dedicated to neutrality. Paddy knows a party that might be though 👇

Most importantly it would suit Russia if Ireland remained neutral because of the data cables running under the Atlantic, connecting North America with Europe. RTE referred to the cables running through Ireland as part of "the busiest telecommunications data route in the world".

In the event of conflict between Russia and NATO, Russia can target strategically important maritime assets in neutral Irish territory without having to worry about Irish retaliation. Ireland is the ideal target.

Ireland has to start thinking about its defence on a grander scale. Russia has no incentive to target Ireland or its assets other than using Ireland as a means to disrupt NATO, the US, EU or GB. Neutral Belgium for example was used by the NAZIs as an easy way to target France in World War II.

Still not convinced though? Ireland is an isolated island on the edge of Europe. There is nothing here except pubs, GAA pitches, churches, farms, bogs and cows. There is nothing in Ireland that would interest the Russians. Right? 🤔

Ireland is actually a hub for the biggest multinational companies on the planet. Some of those multinational companies, including their activity in Ireland, are tagged as "systemically important" to both the US and EU economies.

Why would those companies interest the Kremlin though? Russia could use Ireland as a base to easily target, infiltrate or corrupt companies that are systemically important to both the US and EU. This holds value both in peacetime and during a time of war. Paddy agrees 👇

Companies don't have to be large to hold value for the Kremlin. The Kremlin can use its useful Irish idiots to infiltrate or influence small organizations that might be the next big thing. The story below from an Examiner article is not an example 😉

Irish 's MEP's in the European Parliament are famous around the world at this stage; grifting for authoritarian regimes. There are many Irish citizens gaining a notorious reputation. Russia will always try to exploit and grow a network of useful Irish idiots.

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https://twitter.com/Justinhead1982/status/1619506616549937152?s=20

I've highlighted in previous threads that there is evidence that some of the Kremlin's useful Irish ideots are now acting independently of the Kremlin and the Russian embassy in Dublin or acting with minimal instruction. The tactics/strategy they use are unmistakably Russian influenced.

For Russia to manage all the useful Irish ideots, to infiltrate and build networks in multinational companies based in Ireland, to gather/process all the intel would require a large staff in the Russian embassy. That is probably why they wanted a large expansion at the embassy.

And lastly, the Kremlin might not have a concrete strategy in Ireland. The Kremlin and their Russian Z followers in Ireland are aimless zombies. Just look at their directionless strategy in Ukraine. They're there because sowing chaos and destruction is all they know. They have no reason why.

Ultimately, we cannot know for sure the Russian strategy in Ireland. Russia and it's useful Irish ideots only hint at their true intentions through their actions. This 🧵 only serves to draw your attention to some of the likely explanations but the 🧵 should be treated as speculative.

The good news is that the Irish government is starting to tackle the threat from Russia and Chinese regime influence. The unprecedented comments in the Dail by An Tanaiste, Micheal Martin, were not perfect and he has received some criticism for them but its important that he spoke openly