May 14: Sunday Stories
Day 445: Luhansk 4RUplanes Khmelnytsky Lyman Khromove Kinzhal Prigozhin passports Pernod G7 Ze-Rome BEL 2.7Bln GoldenPass HUN flyGeorgia Turkey A&Ps CDS KyivIndie MacKay UKDef Noel Kenyon Mikhelidze
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
As a result of the morning shelling of Luhansk, rockets hit the old building of the Lugansk Academy of Internal Affairs, according to the RT channel. Since 2015, the military of the self-proclaimed LPR has been stationed there.
The Russian air force lost 4 planes on Saturday: "Two Mi-8s, one Su-35 and one Su-34 were shot down in Bryansk region. We will avenge everyone, we will kill everyone".
Russian forces have increased the intensity of shelling on the positions of Ukrainian Defense Forces and rear objects in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts.
Explosions reported in Khmelnytsky Oblast: Western Ukraine’s Khmelnytsky Oblast Military Administration reported that explosions were heard in the region in the early hours of May 13.
The Russian military focuses on offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions. Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repulsed over 44 Russian attacks in different directions. Heavy battles are fought for Bakhmut and Maryinka.
Ukrainian counterattacks in the Khromove and Ivanove areas are aimed at reducing pressure on their logistics routes passing along the 0506 and 0504 highways, and are not attempts to surround Russian troops in Bakhmut.
Last week, Russia attempted to destroy the US-made MIM-104 Patriot air defence system in Ukraine using a hypersonic Kinzhal missile, reports CNN. An official said the Ukrainian military fired several missiles using the Patriot system at different angles to intercept a Russian missile, demonstrating how quickly they learned to use the new equipment. US officials believe that the Russians detected signals from the Patriot system, which allowed them to target the system with a hypersonic Kinzhal missile.
Ukrainian troops are advancing in two directions in the eastern city of Bakhmut but the situation in the city centre is more complicated, deputy defence minister Hanna Malyar said. “The enemy is not able to take control of the city,” Malyar wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
Prigozhin has repeated his claim, first made yesterday, that Russian Defense Ministry troops surrendered their positions on the outskirts of Bakhmut, in the Donetsk region, allowing Ukraine’s Armed Forces to occupy important tactical heights. Meduza reports:
According to Prigozhin, Defense Ministry troops stopped blocking the road leading out of Bakhmut to the Ukrainian army’s rear position, in the city of Chasiv Yar. “Only today did the enemy fully liberate the Chasiv Yar–Bakhmut road, which we were blocking, in what was called the ‘encirclement of Bakhmut.’ Now the enemy will be able to use this road, first of all, and second, they took tactical heights, from which Bakhmut is in full view,” said Prigozhin.
An explosion occurred in Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia region, as reported by RIA Novosti. Power went out around 9:50 p.m. local time in the Mikroraion quarter of Melitopol. The sound of an explosion was heard shortly afterwards.
More than 600 tons of explosives, used in the preparation of artillery ammunition, were transported from missile and ammunition depot of the Armed Forces of Belarus (Bronnaya Gora), to the ammunition depot of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of Russia in Kotluban city, Russia. This suggests that they have been moved to be refurbished.
Ukrainians who refuse to obtain Russian passports in the occupied town of Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, are subject to salary reductions of 30% as a form of punishment.
Russian recruitment issues: The sale and purchase of military exonerations in order to evade the army should be considered high treason and punished with terms up to life imprisonment, said State Duma deputy Maxim Ivanov. He is going to develop a corresponding bill. The cost of a military exoneration on the black market in Moscow has doubled to half a million rubles, Baza wrote. At the military registration and enlistment offices accept only euros as payment, one of them said.
Read the article here.
In the first four months of 2023, Russian military courts heard 1,053 felony cases under the Criminal Code’s article against “unauthorized abandonment of a military unit,” which can carry a punishment of up to 10 years in prison. That’s more cases than in the entirety of 2022 (when courts heard 1,001 such cases), reports Mediazona.
Major French alcohol seller to cease operations in Russia. The French company Pernod Ricard, one of the world's top alcohol sellers, announced on May 12 that it would cease operations in Russia.
Russian authorities will launch construction of a village outside Moscow for conservative-minded Americans and Canadians next year, the state-run RIA Novosti reported Thursday. Timur Beslangurov, a migration lawyer at Moscow’s VISTA Foreign Business Support, claimed that “around 200 families” wish to emigrate to Russia for “ideological reasons.”
Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko says Kyiv’s backers understand that a counteroffensive “may not result in the complete eviction of Russian troops and the definitive defeat of Russia in all occupied areas”. “We have to be ready for the war to continue into next year - or it could end this year,” Musiyenko told Ukrainian NV Radio. “It all depends on how the battles develop. We can’t guarantee how the counter-offensive will develop.”
IAEA chief to present agreement on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant to UN. Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi will present an agreement to the UN Security Council aimed at protecting the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Reuters reported on May 12.
G7 increase help to Ukraine to $44 billion. Financial chiefs from the G7 counties – the U.S., the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan – expanded help for Ukraine to $44 billion in 2023 and early 2024.
President Mattarella: “It is an honour to have you here in Rome,” president Sergio Mattarella told Zelenskiy, in remarks aired on Italian television. “I asked to meet you again after our conversation of years ago, although in this different condition, we are fully at your side,” Mattarella said.
During his visit to Rome, Ukrainian President Zelensky has urged Italian politicians and public figures to visit Ukraine to better understand why it continues to stand up to evil the way it does.
"Right now, I want to invite all Italian political leaders, all of your public figures, to come visit our country, to talk to people – regular people. I think if you see for yourselves what is happening, and the havoc one person – Putin – has wreaked, I think you will all understand once and for all why we are standing up to this evil the way we are. We are just fighting for our lives," Zelensky said.
Important decisions have been made by Ukraine and Italy to protect the Ukrainian skies. "Today, we discussed our cooperation, specifically, security and military cooperation. There are very important decisions regarding protection of our skies," Zelensky said without providing any more details.
President Zelensky and Pope Francis held a 40-minute conversation in the Vatican. Pope Francis presented President Zelenskyy with a small sculpture of an olive branch, a symbol of peace. Instead, the Ukrainian president presented the Pope with an icon of the Madonna painted on the remains of a bulletproof vest. In an interview on Porta a Porta with Bruno Vespa and a group of Italian journalists, Zelensky revealed that he asked Pope Francis to intervene in bringing back the Ukrainian children who were kidnapped and taken to Russia.
Belgium will use €92m ($100Mln) it has received in taxes on frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, its government said on Friday, Reuters reports. Half of the amount will be used to deliver military goods such as armoured vehicles, weapons and munition. The other half is earmarked for humanitarian support, the future reconstruction of Ukraine and strengthening Belgium’s diplomatic presence in the country, the government said.
Germany to announce biggest package of weapons support for Ukraine, Der Spiegel reports. 2.7 billion EURO worth of Marder, Leopard 1, Gepard, surveillance drones, IRIS-T, other armored vehicles plus ammunition.
Cyprus and Malta annul dozens of ‘golden passports’ belonging to Russian nationals sanctioned by E.U. Der Spiegel reports that, in response to a request by European Parliament member Moritz Kerner, Cyprus annulled nine “golden passports” issued to Russian nationals who have been sanctioned, as well as another 34 passports belonging to their relations. Malta revoked two sanctioned Russian nationals’ citizenship.
Hungary’s FM, Péter Szijjártó, said that due to Ukraine's inclusion of the Hungarian OTP Bank in the list of war sponsors, Budapest "will find it very difficult" to agree with the EU on new sanctions against Russia, reports Euronews.
Ukraine’s National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption announced it had included OTP Bank – the largest Hungarian bank – in the list of war sponsors due to the position of the bank's management to continue operations in the Russian Federation and the de-facto recognition of the so-called "Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.
What do Hungarians think? An IDEA survey shows that only 10 percent of Fidesz voters hold Russia responsible for the war against Ukraine. In contrast, 36 percent blame Ukraine, and 25 percent believe the U.S. is to blame. However, ordinary Hungarians hold a different view, with the majority blaming Russia (40 percent) and only 17 percent blaming Ukraine for the aggression against it.
Airlines Azimuth and Georgia Airways plan to resume direct flights between Russia and Georgia by late May, reports Russian state broadcaster RBC. The flights will be made by Superjet aircraft, which Azimuth operates, because they are leased by Russian companies and are not subject sanctions prohibiting servicing them at foreign airports, an RBC source emphasized. Another Russian carrier, Red Wings, which also has Superjets in its fleet, has already requested permission to fly to Georgia.
Celso Amorim, Lula da Silva's special foreign policy advisor, laid out Brazil's peace proposal to president Zelensky. No details were revealed, but in his comment to GLOBO, the Brazilian envoy called on sides for a compromise. "It won't be easy to reach a confluence. It will be necessary for both sides to come to the conclusion that the cost of war is greater than the cost of certain concessions," Amorim said.
Iran’s authoritarian club: Iran's idea to create an international club of countries against which sanctions have been imposed is "curious," Dmitry Medvedev, said on Friday. In an interview with Expert the day before, he suggested forming an "anti-sanctions club", which, according to Jalali, in addition to Russia and Iran, could include about 20 more states.
Elections in Turkey today
President Erdogan now faces an intense battle in Sunday's elections against opposition rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Polls show Kılıçdaroğlu has a chance as many Turks are frustrated with Erdoğan, whose unorthodox economic and monetary policies have led the country to plummeting living standards, catastrophic inflation and a collapse in the lira.
Also, many are unhappy with the government's response to the February earthquake, which killed more than 50,000 people and left millions homeless.
If neither candidate wins the first round, the second round will be held on 28 May. Whoever wins will face the difficult task of rebuilding the economy.
CDS Daily Brief, Ukrainian refugees
According to the UNHCR, there're 8.2 million Ukrainian refugees, and 5 million of them are registered for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe.
With 2.6 million Ukrainian refugees registered in the neighboring countries, Poland is the ultimate champion (1.5 million), followed by Czechia (0.5 million), Slovakia (114 thousand), and Moldova (107 thousand).
Germany (1 million) is leading among non-neighboring nations, followed by the U.K. (202 thousand) and Spain (174 thousand).
Russia's war of aggression and other conflicts to date have contributed to a one-fifth increase in internally displaced people, reaching the 71.1 million mark, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. Russia's war caused the displacement of 16.9 million people - "the highest figure ever recorded for any country."
Programming note…
Episode #7 is dedicated to Russian private military companies, how they operate, and the role they play in Russia's war against Ukraine. Anastasiia is joined by the Kyiv Independent reporter Igor Kossov.