May 14 Weekend Edition
ISW report, Poland, GLOBSEC statements, Budanov, more fires, $750m to Hungary?
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Here are some other stories we’re following…
Institute for the Study of War: In its May 13 report, the ISW has stated that Ukraine appears to have ‘won the Battle of Kharkiv.’ A spokesman for the Ukrainian General Staff quoted by AFP as saying that in the region, the "enemy's main efforts are focused on ensuring the withdrawal of its units from the city of Kharkiv".
Mariupol: president Zelensky has said "very difficult" negotiations are under way over the evacuation of wounded fighters from Mariupol in the south.
UK MoD: The fact that Russia has only succeeded in imposing a pro-Russian leadership in one Ukrainian city - Kherson - highlights the failure of Russia's invasion to make progress in terms of its political objectives in Ukraine.
South Ossetia will host a “referendum” on unification with Russia on July 17. The corresponding decree was signed by the President of the Republic Anatoly Bibilov.
The Spectator Index: Russia has suspended electricity supply to Finland.
Duma Deputy Oleg Morozov suggested that Poland should be the next to get invaded and "denazified" by Russia.
The G7 nations have stated they will never recognise borders re-drawn by Russian military action, after a multi-day meeting in Germany.
Lukoil is buying 411 gas stations and one factory in Russia from Shell. This is obviously what is going to happen to stranded Western companies in Russia.
El Pais: Hungary hints it needs 750 million euros to back embargo on Russian oil. Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Hungary could not back the EU proposal to ban all imports of Russian oil without a “solution” to the costs of adapting its energy supply and infrastructure. Hungary has effectively blocked the oil embargo so far.
Politico EU: GLOBSEC Statements that emerge from the meeting
Matti Maasikas, head of the EU delegation to Ukraine, on Brussels’ economic recovery assistance.
“At the lowest point, according to opinion polls, more than half of Ukrainians lost their jobs or were not able to work. And that means no taxes, that means no public services. Many public services are shut in Kyiv.”
“The EU is doing budget support for the government to function. All EU projects and programs have been repurposed to support Ukraine’s resilience.”
Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna’s perception of how leaders in the European Union have stepped up to support her country.
“I think there was some ambiguity at the beginning of the war, because it was a generally shocking issue that required a strong political transformation and strong political commitment from different EU leaders … But now we are well on track.”
“The sanctions are far from Ukrainian expectations, of course, and they are not leading to fast enough isolation of Russia as we would need to bring this war closer to an end, but we see strong leadership of the European Union.”
Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, chair of the parliamentary committee on integration of Ukraine to the EU
“We need everything starting from fighter jets, from air defense … we need tanks, we need artillery systems, multiple launch rocket systems, we need personal gear because unfortunately Russia has a lot … we cannot do this barehandedly.”
“It’s definitely coming in much bigger numbers right now and much faster than at the beginning … it’s not about disappointment, it’s about encouragement to do more and as urgently as possible.”
Sky News interview with Maj Gen Budanov
Maj Gen Budanov, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine was interviewed by Sky News.
Two key points: the war with Russia will reach a turning point by mid-August and end by the end of the year; as confirmed by Ukrainian intelligence, Putin has cancer, and that there is a coup underway in Moscow to replace him.
Budanov: “Defeat in Ukraine would lead to the removal of Russia's leader and the country's disintegration. "It will eventually lead to the change of leadership of the Russian Federation. This process has already been launched and they are moving into that way."
Dealing with Putin…
Posted by Teri Schulz: “Estonian Premier Kaja Kallas is exasperated that Vladimir Putin's phone line is so busy. "If you really want him to get the message that he's isolated," she says, boiling it down. "Don't. Call. Him." #LennartMeriConference
Tomorrow’s Sunday edition will include a post about ‘How to Deal with Putin’.
Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Call With Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu, May 13
Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby provided the following readout:
On May 13, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu for the first time since February 18. Secretary Austin urged an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication.
More unexplained cases of arson in Russia…
This should bring us well past 24 documented cases. Add to these ‘fires’ the ones that have been started at Russian armed forces recruitment centres. We’re following these stories.
Defense measures in the Balkans
Owing to Russia’s hybrid measures in the Balkans, this is good news.
Signs of dissent crushed…
Just ridiculous…
Not in Eurovision…but…
NYT: A Guide to Eurovision 2022
In just over an hour, the grand finale!
The Eurovision Song Contest started in 1956 as a friendly music competition between public service television broadcasters and has since grown into the world’s largest — and perhaps most eccentric — live music event.
This year, the competition takes place while there is a war in Europe; in February, the event’s organizers announced that Russia would be barred from competing, citing “the unprecedented crisis in Ukraine.”
We’re signing off…thanks for reading…
Scott & Mo