May 16: E-Stories
Day 447: Bakhmut Zapo Kherson Luhansk Sakharov RUbanks RUairlines POR MOL Ze-Macron-Sunak EU NATO UATerritorialDefence A&P Danilov UKDef Lee Derminzhi Keating ICDSTallinn Bielieskov RUSI LennartMeri
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, has said that the advance of the UAF on the Bakhmut front is the first success of the offensive in the defence of Bakhmut. Hanna Maliar, Deputy Minister of Defence, has noted that heavy fighting continues in the city; the occupiers are bringing in airborne assault units to the outskirts. Col Gen Syrskyi added:
The last few days have shown that we can move forward and destroy the enemy even in such extremely difficult conditions.
We are fighting with fewer resources than the enemy. At the same time, we are able to destroy their plans. This is thanks to our soldiers, who are fighting the aggressor, overcoming the highest limits of human capabilities.
However, this is only a partial success. And this is how it should be perceived. The operation to defend Bakhmut continues. All decisions necessary for defence have been made.
There are approximately 152,000 Russian servicemembers stationed in occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, Andriy Chernyak, a representative of Ukraine's military intelligence, said on May 15.
"The adversary understands that they have absolutely no strength left for any active offensive actions. The only task before them is to maintain the positions they currently have. There is absolutely no question of any further offensive," Chernyak said.
The Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posted a video showing the destruction of a 2S4 Tyulpan self-propelled heavy mortar, reports the Naval Forces of Ukraine on Telegram. The Ukrainian soldiers revealed that the occupiers were trying to "get out of sight" of the Ukrainian troops.
The occupiers in Luhansk and Russian propagandists have reported strikes in the area of the bus station on the morning of 15 May. They are also claiming that a former aviation academy for navigators has been hit, reports Luhansk collaborator Rodion Miroshnik on Telegram.
A drone has attacked a storage point containing military equipment near the village of Polevye Novoselki in the Suzemka district, Bryansk Oblast, and another UAV has damaged a police car in Khoromnoye., reports Baza.
As a result of an explosion in the center of Lugansk, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the annexed LPR, Igor Kornet, was injured. This is reported by TASS and RIA Novosti, citing sources.
ISW: Russian air campaign likely aims to degrade Ukraine’s counteroffensive capability. Russia’s recent drone and missile strikes likely aim to disrupt Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations, the Institute for the Study of War wrote in its May 14 report.
According to the UK Defence Intelligence update, the Russian leadership is increasingly concerned that the Russian air defence system is unable to intercept drones that attack targets on the territory of the country. (see below)
Russia spent 2tn roubles (£21bn/$26bn) on defence in January and February alone, a 282% jump on the same period a year ago, data on the budget portal showed, illustrating the spiralling costs for Moscow of its conflict in Ukraine, Reuters reports. Russia’s budget deficit stood at 3.4tn roubles for January to April, compared with a 1.2-trillion-rouble surplus in 2022, as Moscow has spent heavily and energy revenues have dropped. In January-February 2023, national defence spending was 36.2% of the total budget expenditure, nearly double the amount spent on social policy and almost four times more than spending on the “national economy”.
Russian officials were banned from leaving their posts during the war in Ukraine under the threat of criminal cases, informed sources told Important Stories. The Kremlin has imposed a tacit ban after many senior officials expressed a desire to leave, said a source close to the presidential administration. “If everyone leaves, control will be lost,” he explained the logic of power.
“I am aware of at least two cases when governors tried to leave their posts, but in the UVP (the internal policy department of the AP. - TMT ) they were not just banned, but hinted at criminal cases,” said the former FSB officer.
Russia claims downing Storm Shadow missile for the first time. Russian Defense Ministry said for the first time that Russian troops had intercepted a Storm Shadow long-range missile supplied to Ukraine by the U.K., Reuters reported on May 15.
The United States is seeing more indications that Russia and Iran are expanding an unprecedented defense partnership that will help Moscow prolong its war in Ukraine as well as pose a threat to Iran’s neighbors, Reuters reports. As part of the cooperation, Iran is providing Russia with one-way attack drones, including more than 400 since august, US national security adviser John Kirby said at a news briefing.
SOTA subscribers reported that the building of the Sakharov Center, where human rights activists were evicted from in April, is now pasted over with propaganda symbols "Z". The last evening of the Sakharov Center took place on 16 April. It was closed with an exhibition dedicated to Elena Bonner.
Russian banks face problems when trying to open accounts in “friendly” countries in order to establish trade bypassing the dollar, euro and other world currencies. In order to break through the "financial blockade" imposed by Western countries, the Central Bank allowed small banks holding a "basic" license to open correspondent accounts abroad for foreign exchange transactions. And although the easing has been in effect for 8 months, only 20 banks out of more than a hundred holders of a "basic" license were able to establish correspondent relations with foreign "colleagues".
Russian airlines are facing growing problems in aircraft maintenance amid sanctions that have cut off civil aviation from spare parts and software updates. Since the spring of 2022, air carriers have been requiring personnel not to enter equipment defects in flight logs (TLB), as a result of which aircraft often fly out of order, Proekt writes, citing Aeroflot and Nordwind employees. In particular, senior flight attendants of Aeroflot were forbidden to write down problems with equipment without the consent of the flight commander.
Portugal is considering granting citizenship to two Russian oligarchs linked to Putin, Alexander Smuzikov and Alexander Kaplan; this process began in 2020, reports Observador, the Portuguese news outlet. Both businessmen hold Comunidade Israelita do Porto (CIP) certificates and are awaiting citizenship under Sephardic Jews law. Smuzikov, who is ranked 143rd in Forbes' ranking of Russia's wealthiest people, became rich primarily through the sale of TNK-BP, and Kaplan served as Vice President for Refining and Trading at TNK-BP.
Reuters: UK to provide Ukraine with 'hundreds' of long-range attack drones. The U.K. will provide Ukraine with "hundreds" of attack drones that have a range of over 200 kilometers, Reuters reported on May 15.
France to provide dozens of armored vehicles and light tanks to Ukraine. France will train and equip several Ukrainian battalions with dozens of armored vehicles and light tanks, including AMX-10RC, according to the Joint Declaration released by the countries after the leadership meeting on May 14.
President Zelensky and President Macron adopted a joint declaration in which, among other things, Paris expresses support for Ukraine's move towards NATO membership, as reported by European Pravda.
"France fully supports the Ukraine-NATO Commission as a platform for further strengthening and expanding the current cooperation to help Ukraine move towards the Euro-Atlantic family in accordance with the Bucharest Declaration".
General Staff: Norway to train around 3,200 Ukrainian soldiers in 2023. Norway's Armed Forces will train roughly 3,200 Ukrainian soldiers in 2023, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on May 14. The training will take place both in Norway and abroad.
The EU’s 27 member states are discussing plans to blacklist several Chinese companies for their role in supplying Russia with goods banned under western sanctions. The proposal is part of a wider set of measures to clamp down on countries in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Middle East believed to be helping Russia dodge western sanctions.
[The EU proposal was] basically a warning that we’re serious about our sanctions, that we could ban these goods from going to a third country, if there is clear evidence that this is a circumvention of time of sanctions and [there are] deliveries to Russia”.
President Zelensky met with Prime Minister Sunak with Ukraine's Nato membership on agenda. Britain announced on Monday that it will send hundreds of new long-range attack drones with a range of over 200km to Ukraine. Sunak said in a statement
“This is a crucial moment in Ukraine’s resistance to a terrible war of aggression they did not choose or provoke. They need the sustained support of the international community to defend against the barrage of unrelenting and indiscriminate attacks that have been their daily reality for over a year. We must not let them down.”
Nato’s secretary general has said he expects the alliance to agree a “multi-year programme” to assist Ukraine in its desire to join the organisation, and that there was no “meaning in discussing when and how Ukraine can become a member of the alliance” unless it prevails in the war “as a sovereign independent nation in Europe”. The NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg, was speaking to reporters at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit.
Top Chinese envoy to visit Ukraine, Russia to discuss 'political settlemen'. A top Chinese envoy is set to visit Ukraine, Russia, and several other European countries in a trip that Beijing said is geared toward the "political settlement" of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine.
Ex-employee of the American diplomatic mission Robert Shonov was detained in Vladivostok, he was accused of secret cooperation with a foreign state or organization. Shonov was detained in Vladivostok. He was interrogated, after which he was charged under Art. 275.1 of the Criminal Code. Shonov faces up to eight years in prison.
Mykola Bielieskov, Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Forces: The War So Far and Future Prospects—RUSI
The revamped Territorial Defence Forces (TDF) of Ukraine, as a separate branch of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, function in accordance with the law ‘On fundamentals of national resistance’ enacted in July 2021. This law envisioned that the TDF might be engaged in both specific rear area protection functions and ‘timely response [actions] while taking measures to defend territories and populace at certain locations’, which allows for quite a broad interpretation. The TDF military component consists of TDF Command, regional headquarters and brigades/battalions for each region/district. Estimates produced prior to 24 February 2022 suggested the TDF would be able to engage as many as 130,000 people (25 brigades of 150 battalions) in mass national resistance in the case of all-out war with Russia. [continue reading]
The deployment of the TDF in the first month of all-out war made it possible to implement mass national resistance and inflict maximum losses of men/equipment on the enemy