May 17: E-Stories

Day 448: Kyiv Donetsk Kramatorsk Bakhmut F16 KhantyMansi Crimea ISIS Bryansk BlackSea WHO Macron Schroeder Kniazev CIA Firtash A&P iStories Avdeeva UKDef Schmitt Gvaramia Ilves Fukuyama Jamala CoE

May 17, 2023

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

Crimea.Realities, a project of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, launched an interactive map showing 233 active and frozen military facilities in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula occupied by Russia since 2014.

Stories we’re following…

Ukraine has said it has neutralised the Kremlin’s most potent hypersonic weapon, shooting down six out of six Kinzhal missiles launched at Kyiv during a sweeping and “exceptionally intense” night-time attack. Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, claimed Kyiv’s defenders shot down 18 out of 18 Russian rockets and drones.

Several explosions in Kyiv as Russia launches air strikes overnight May 16, 3 injured. Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko reported that a missile's debris fell on the zoo's territory in Kyiv's Shevchenkivskyi district. Emergency services are on their way, Klitschko said.

Air strike of “exceptional intensity” hits Kyiv on May 16. Russia launched an overnight air strike of “exceptional intensity” on Kyiv, according to the Kyiv City Military Administration. The administration defined exceptional intensity as the “maximum number of missile attacks in the shortest time span.”

At least seven people have been killed and five others injured as a result of a Russian attack on Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, reports Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, on Telegram.

At midnight, the russians launched a missile attack on Kramatorsk - 3 high-rise buildings and a boiler house were damaged, — reported the head of Donetsk Regional Military Administration, Pavlo Kyrylenko.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, visited the troops near Bakhmut and thanked them for their counteroffensive actions during the last three days, completely disorienting the Russians, reports Syrskyi on Telegram. According to Syrskyi, the defenders of Bakhmut use the "active defence" principle, thus destroying the Russian plans, who still have "more resources".

Ukrainian forces have taken back about 20 square km (7.5 square miles) of territory from Russian forces around the eastern city of Bakhmut in recent days, Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on Tuesday.

Official: Ukraine wants 40-50 F-16 fighter jets. Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, has said that Ukraine wants between 40 and 50 F-16 fighter jets, Politico reported on May 16.

A UAV has dropped three rounds of ammunition on the building of the Border Service of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia in Kursk Oblast, injuring five border guards, Russian Telegram channels report.

In Russia, an explosion occurred on a gas pipeline in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug [a type of federal subject of the Russian Federation – ed.], people were injured, reports RIA Novosti.

Russia’s defence ministry claims it scrambled a fighter jet on Monday to prevent French and German patrol aircraft from entering its airspace over the Baltic Sea after it detected them flying towards Russia, Reuters reports.

The crash of two military planes and two helicopters in the Bryansk region on Saturday, the largest loss of aircraft in a single day since the start of the war, came under military censorship in the state-controlled media. Federal TV channels ignored the incident near the border with Ukraine, which resulted in the death of all crews. The plot about the fall of aircraft was not included in any of the 19 news releases shown over the past two days by Channel One, Rossiya-1 and NTV, Layout notes.

Russia's FSB recruits former ISIS militants to be agents in Ukraine. Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has been recruiting former ISIS fighters over the years as their "agents" in countries like Ukraine, independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported on May 16.

In the year the war with Ukraine began, 45,100 people entered postgraduate studies at Russian universities. This is 1.5 times more than in 2021 and a record for the last 10 years, according to an analysis by the HSE Institute for Statistical Research and Data Economics, Vedomosti reports.

In occupied Crimea, Russian secret forces conduct enhanced inspections at railway and bus stations, primarily inspecting Crimean Tatars, reports of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of the evening of 15 May. In the Zaporizhzhia terrorities occupied by the Russian forces, persons who agree to collaborate with the occupiers are invited to renounce their Ukrainian citizenship for a Russian citizenship in writing.

In the schools of occupied Crimea, the celebrations of the "farwell bell" [a traditional celebration for graduating students, usually involving all students of the school – ed.] were cancelled for most students, reports Serhii Aksionov, the Russian-appointed "head" of the occupied peninsula, on Telegram.

The tourist business in Crimea is on the verge of collapse due to the refusal of Russians to stay on the peninsula in connection with the impending counteroffensive of Ukraine. According to Boris Zelinsky, head of the Russian Union of Tourism in Crimea, the local tourist industry is preparing an appeal to the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation and to the relevant ministries so that they provide him with support.

The economic forecast for Ukraine turns out to be very positive. After a drop of around 29% last year, the economy is projected to grow by 0.6% this year and 4.0% in 2024," according to EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni, who presented the data.

Gentiloni stated that the economy of Ukraine, attacked by Russia, has shown "the immense shock, but also the tremendous resilience." However, the forecast for Ukraine "is subject to all the caveats you would expect in the current wartime situation," the European Commission acknowledges in its spring report.

UN aid chief, Martin Griffiths, said on Monday that efforts will continue in the coming days to extend a deal allowing the safe Black Sea export of Ukraine grain, a pact Moscow has threatened to quit on 18 May over obstacles to its grain and fertiliser exports, Reuters reports.

EU Commission President, von der Leyen, will step up calls for a special tribunal to try Russia for the crime of aggression. Speaking ahead of a summit of European leaders in Iceland, Von der Leyen said “accountability of Russia for the crime of aggression” would be a big topic. Earlier this week, she promised to “strongly support the creation of a dedicated tribunal to bring Russia’s crime of aggression to trial”.

The Summit of the Council of Europe, hosted in Iceland, kicks off today.

The World Health Organization’s European office decided to close a specialised office in Moscow and move its functions to Denmark, AFP reports. The move, which was decided during a virtual session held today, follows calls from members last year to shut the office over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Pentagon confirms 31 Abrams tanks delivery to Germany, training of Ukrainian troops to begin soon. The U.S. has delivered 31 Abrams tanks to Grafenwoehr, in Germany, where training of Ukrainian forces will begin in the next few weeks, Pentagon spokesperson General Patrick Ryder said during a press briefing on May 15.

President Macron has announced the transfer of missiles to Ukraine with a range that "allows Ukraine to resist", in an interview with French TF1. "We are not at war with Russia; we are helping Ukraine resist the Russian invader. This means that we are not supplying weapons that could end up on Russian soil or attack Russia," he said.

Following France's declaration that they're training Ukrainian pilots on Mirage 2000s, the UK and Netherlands have announced an ‘international coalition’ to help Ukraine with F-16 jets.

The wife of the German ex-chancellor Gerhard Schröder, Soyeon Schröder-Kim, has been sacked from her role as a trade representative for a German state-owned business agency over her attendance at a Victory Day reception at the Russian embassy in Berlin. Leaked photographs revealed Schröder and his spouse were at a reception at the Russian embassy in Berlin on 9 May, drawing further criticism for the disgraced former Social Democrat head of government.

Supreme Court head detained for accepting $3 million bribe. Ukraine’s Supreme Court Chairman Vsevolod Kniaziev was detained after being caught receiving a bribe of about $3 million, Ukrainian media outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported on May 15, citing sources in law enforcement. “This is the biggest-ever case” implicating the judiciary, said the head of Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), Semen Kryvonos. Anti-corruption officials say Ukrainian billionaire Kostiantyn Zhevago had offered the bribe to court officials, with a law firm acting as intermediary.

Up-date: A plenary meeting of Ukraine’s supreme court voted no-confidence in the court’s head on Tuesday after he was detained by anti-corruption authorities as part of a $2.7m bribery investigation, the biggest in Ukraine’s history.

The US CIA launched an online campaign to recruit Russians who are dissatisfied with the war against Ukraine and the Kremlin's policies. The agency launched a telegram channel and posted posts and videos in it with calls for cooperation. "Are you a military officer? Do you work in the field of intelligence, diplomacy, science, high technology, or do you deal with people who do this? Do you have information about the economy or the top leadership of the Russian Federation? Contact us, ”says one of the publications.

SBU: Firtash, top associates accused of embezzling millions of hryvnias worth of state gas. Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash and some of his top business associates have been informed that they are suspected of embezzling millions worth of state gas, Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported on May 15.

On May 12, the detainees were charged in Arizona District Court with violating U.S. sanctions on Russian airlines that the U.S. imposed after Russia invaded Ukraine. FBI agents broke into an apartment on the 41st floor of an elite residential complex in Miami. The apartment, bought 10 years ago for $1.65 million, is owned by MIC-USA LLC, owned by two Russian businessmen, Oleg Patsulya and Agunda Makeeva. The defendants began fulfilling orders for the supply of spare parts, including an expensive braking system for a Boeing 737, for three Russian airlines, according to court documents.

Read the Foreign Policy article here.

Francis Fukuyama, Georgian Nightmare, American Purpose

The Georgian government is quietly shifting its support to Moscow–despite public protestations otherwise. Francis Fukuyama's latest.

I recently returned from a visit to the Republic of Georgia. I was there to teach one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses, and also to participate in an alumni event for the Fisher Family Summer Fellows program (formerly the Draper Hills program) at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. We have accumulated well over a hundred Georgian graduates of our various leadership programs over the years, and it was wonderful to return to the country after the long Covid interlude. The host for both events was the Economic Policy Research Center, a think tank in Tbilisi run by the indomitable Nino Evgenidze who has been a staunch supporter of a democratic and European Georgia for many years.
The visit occurred at a critical moment in Georgia’s history. The country is slowly but surely being sucked into Moscow’s orbit, a process that has accelerated since the invasion of Ukraine in February of last year. In contrast to Ukraine, which before the war was plagued with half a dozen oligarchs, Georgia has only one, a gentleman named Bidzina Ivanishvili, who was briefly prime minister in 2012-13 and who since then has been controlling the country through the Georgian Dream party that he founded. He rarely appears publicly, but has put loyalists like his dentist and bodyguard in positions of supreme power. [continue reading]

Read The Guardian article here.

Programming note…

May is the month of conferences around the world. The G7 meeting in Hiroshima, Japan on May 19-21, and the Summit of the Council of Europe starts today. To tune into the proceedings of the Summit of the Council of Europe, the link is here to the Council of Europe live portal.