May 18: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews Mutler Brink
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces struck a passenger bus near Bilopillia with a Lancet drone. At least 9 people killed, 4 injured. Rescue operations are ongoing. An entire family – a father, mother and daughter – was killed in a Russian attack on an evacuation bus in Sumy Oblast. President Zelensky posted:
"There are currently seven wounded people in hospitals following a Russian drone strike on an ordinary passenger bus. The victims have suffered burns, fractures and blast injuries...
... Early reports indicate that the Russians killed a family: father, mother and daughter were killed in the attack. My condolences to all the families and loved ones. All the deceased were civilians. And the Russians could not have failed to understand what kind of vehicle they were targeting. This was a deliberate killing of civilians."
UK Foreign Secretary reacts to Russia’s strike on a bus near Bilopillia: “Appalled by Russia’s attack, just hours after talks in Turkey. If Putin is serious about peace, Russia must agree to a full and immediate ceasefire — as Ukraine has.”
Ukraine brings back bodies of 909 fallen soldiers. The bodies of soldiers were recovered from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts as well as from morgues in Russia.
Combat Situation
Explosions rock occupied Crimea as drone attack reportedly sets Russian ammo depot on fire. A fire broke out at an ammunition depot in the village of Perevalne in Russian-occupied Crimea following a series of explosions during a drone attack on the morning of May 16, the Crimean Wind Telegram channel reported, citing local residents.
Confirmed: SBU drones hit Russian 126th Brigade depots near Perevalne, Crimea, with drones — destroying equipment, weapons, and fuel.
Ukrainian forces took out another D-30 howitzer that was shelling 12 km deep into Sumy region. Recon spotted the camouflaged gun, and STRIX strike team finished the job.
Multiple explosions reported in Dzhankoi, occupied Crimea — blasts heard across different parts of the city. Heavy outgoing fire, possibly air defense systems in action, according to local reports.
The UK MOD has spent £35M on 30,000 FPV drones since July 2024—mainly for Ukraine. The information was disclosed in response to a series of parliamentary questions posed by Ben Obese-Jecty, regarding the procurement and development of FPV drones.
Behind the Lines
Russia, Ukraine agree on 1,000-for-1,000 POW exchange in Istanbul, Umerov says. "We know the date, but we're not going to say it yet," Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said.
Russia sentences Australian fighting for Ukraine to 13 years in prison in sham trial. The so-called Supreme Court of the Russian-controlled Luhansk Oblast found Jenkins guilty under Russian criminal law for participating in armed conflict as a mercenary.
FT: Putin rejected a 22-point peace plan prepared by the US, Europe, and Ukraine, which was meant to be presented by Steve Witkoff, reports Financial Times.
In parallel to a brutal war along a 1,000km front, Russia and Ukraine are locked in a titanic diplomatic battle to persuade Donald Trump that the other is the real impediment to peace.
So Vladimir Putin took a big risk over the last week, slow rolling US negotiators over a peace proposal, according to officials familiar with the discussions, then refusing to turn up for talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Turkey that he himself had publicly initiated.
So far, the Russian leader’s refusal to engage on terms set by others has been met with little resistance — and certainly not enough to compel concessions or alter the course of his war.
Trump on Zelensky but not Putin (of course): Trump, when asked if Putin is an obstacle to peace: “I had a rough talk with Zelensky. He’s not making it easy — never had the cards.”
Bloomberg: Trump says “nothing happens” on Ukraine until he meets Putin. While Europe pushes for sanctions after failed talks, Trump stalls, leaving allies guessing — again. No pressure on the Kremlin.
US senators have urged Congress to pass sanctions against Russia after the 16 May ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Türkiye, failed to make significant progress.
Democrat Richard Blumenthal and Republican Lindsey Graham stated that the US Senate should adopt sanctions against Russia.
Blumenthal noted that "Putin will continue stonewalling and slow-walking ceasefire efforts till his economy is hit hard – isolating it on a financial island," urging a vote on the sanctions bill.
Graham, who attended a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Türkiye during the week of 16 May, called for the bill’s adoption and criticised Putin’s decision not to participate in negotiations with Ukraine, stating that Russia’s tactics must no longer be tolerated.
Moscow questions Kyiv's authority, says Ukraine's choice of signatory key to any peace deal. "For Russia, the most important and principal matter when signing documents between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations is the identity of the person authorized to sign on behalf of Ukraine," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
Orban claims Ukraine is running a “coordinated, funded smear campaign” against Hungary — and demands NATO respond. He calls it “unprecedented” that a country seeking to join NATO would target a member state. Says Kyiv has “gone too far” and blames Ukrainian intelligence.
Russia Spreading New False Claims About Tensions on the Ukraine-Hungary Border – Center for Countering.
Disinformation Russian propaganda, amid ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve the war, has intensified its disinformation campaign by falsely claiming an alleged escalation along the Ukraine-Hungary border. Propagandists are spreading fake reports about the alleged downing of Ukrainian drones and claims that Hungarian military forces are deploying combat equipment and aircraft to the border with Ukraine. The Center verified the claims with the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine and confirmed that the situation on the Ukraine-Hungary border remains calm, with no incidents recorded.
Polish PM Tusk blames Russian hackers for cyberattacks ahead of presidential election. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the cyberattacks hit the website of his Civic Platform party, as well as those of its coalition partners, the Left and the Polish People’s Party (PSL).
Bridget Brink: I was U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. I resigned because of Trump's foreign policy. | Opinion
I respect the president’s right and responsibility to determine U.S. foreign policy ― with proper checks and balances by U.S. Congress. It is the role of America’s Foreign Service to execute that policy. Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia.
As such, I could no longer in good faith carry out the administration’s policy and felt it was my duty to step down. After nearly three decades serving our country, I resigned as our ambassador to Ukraine.
I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity. I believe that the only way to secure U.S. interests is to stand up for democracies and to stand against autocrats. Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement. And history has taught us time and again that appeasement does not lead to safety, security or prosperity. It leads to more war and suffering.
Why does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine matter to the United States?
It matters because how we handle this war will speak volumes to our friends as well as our foes. If we allow Putin to redraw borders by force, he won’t stop with Ukraine. Taken at his word, Putin’s ambition is to resurrect an imperial past ― and he can’t do that without threatening the security of our NATO allies.
And if Putin succeeds, it sends signals to China that will undermine the security balance in Asia and throughout the world. That will have profound implications for America’s safety, security, and prosperity.
Julia Cournoyer, Chatham House: Securing the space-based assets of NATO members from cyberattacks (research paper)
The increased dependence on space-based assets for both military and civilian functions has turned these critical systems into a potential target for cyberattacks. NATO’s deterrence capability relies on these assets, such as satellites, for secure communication, navigation, intelligence and early warning systems.
Protecting space-based assets requires a coordinated and proactive cybersecurity strategy. This paper proposes a three-tiered framework – based on mitigation, adaptation and resilience – for strengthening NATO’s space cybersecurity approach.
As defence commitments among NATO allies shift, ensuring the long-term stability of space security cooperation within the alliance will be critical for sustaining collective deterrence and operational resilience.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Russian economic growth slowing down, Rosstat reports. Russia's economy is experiencing a sharp slowdown in growth, according to a report released by the governmental statistics agency Rosstat on May 16. GDP only grew by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025 – a notable decline from 4.5% growth in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year.
Reuters: Putin to host first Russia-Arab summit in October, Russian agencies report
Putin has invited all leaders and the secretary general of the Arab League for the first Russia-Arab summit on October 15, Russia's news agencies reported on Saturday, citing a statement from the Kremlin.
"I am confident that this meeting will contribute to the further strengthening of mutually beneficial, multifaceted cooperation between our countries and will help in finding ways to ensure peace, security, and stability in the Middle East and North Africa," Interfax agency cited Putin as saying in the statement.
The Cipher Brief—Nvidia China Play? – Nvidia is shopping for a site for a research and development center in Shanghai, Reuters reported Friday, evidently to work around U.S. curbs on advanced chip exports. The news outlet said the U.S. chipmaker began its search in early 2025 and is looking at locations in Shanghai's Minhang and Xuhui districts. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited China last month and met senior Chinese officials, including Vice Premier He Lifeng and Shanghai's mayor Gong Zheng.
Huang has said China is critical to Nvidia's growth – but the U.S. has placed new restrictions on China-bound shipments of Nvidia H20 chips, the only AI chip the company can sell legally in China. Reuters reported earlier this month that Nvidia plans to release a downgraded version of the H20 chip for China in the next two months, hoping to boost sales against market share lost to Chinese rivals such as Huawei. China generated $17 billion in revenue for Nvidia in the fiscal year ending January 26, accounting for 13% of the company's total sales, Reuters reported.
Szabolcs Panyi: Orbán’s anti-gay, pro-family “conservatism” is a smokescreen. He pays US right-wing pundits to push this image—distracting from shady China and Russia deals that also enrich his own family. It’s all so Trump & co leave him alone. MAGA fans still don’t get they’re being played.
The Cipher Brief: ARCTIC FEARS – Speaking of China-Russia collaboration in distant domains, The Cipher Brief takes a deep-dive look at what those two nations – and the U.S. – are up to when it comes to competition in the Arctic.
“The U.S. strategy is best characterized as monitor and respond,” Joshua Tallis, Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses, told us. “For years, we’ve had a perspective strategically on the Arctic that says we will watch what happens. We will develop the capabilities and the capacity to respond as needed, but it’s not a priority theater. I think most Arctic experts expect that that will have to change.” He warned that a war over the Arctic region was not beyond the realm of possibility. Fascinating stuff. You can read more here.
Putin signs decree easing Russian citizenship process for residents of occupied Abkhazia, South Ossetia. According to the decree, all adult "citizens" of Abkhazia and South Ossetia who held that status as of Aug. 26, 2008, the day Russia recognized the territories as "independent," are now eligible to apply for Russian citizenship through an expedited process.
In Europe…
Polish PM Tusk has suggested, following a conversation with US President Donald Trump, that "very difficult days" may lie ahead. Tusk noted that Russia has demanded that no US representatives be present at the negotiations and described Russia’s conditions as unacceptable "not only for Ukraine, but for all of us". He stressed that European politicians will continue working towards peace in Ukraine. Tusk added that the main task will be to maintain unity between Europe and the United States on this issue. "We make no secret of the fact that Russia’s position is hard to describe as constructive. There are likely to be very difficult days ahead of us," he said.
Kaja Kallas: “Everyone wants peace – except Russia. Sanctions and political isolation are essential to keep up the pressure on Russia. That’s why unity matters more than ever.”
The 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia may include restrictions on banks from non-EU countries that support the Russian defence industry and army, in addition to Russian banks.
Banks of third countries that cooperate with companies involved in supporting the Russian defence industry and army may be included in the 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia, the source told European Pravda.
An EU official told European Pravda that the 18th package of sanctions against Russia was expected to include restrictive measures targeting Russian banks as well as banks in third countries that support Russia's military machine.
Italy is ramping up support for Ukraine, pulling 400 M113 armored vehicles out of storage and including them in its 11th military aid package. The M113s have been phased out and replaced by Dardo IFVs.
Helgisin Sanomat: Swedish diplomat suspected of espionage is dead
A Swedish diplomat suspected of espionage has died, reports Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet , among others. According to the newspaper, he was found dead on the night between Thursday and Friday. It was previously reported that the top diplomat suspected of espionage has worked in several embassies around the world.
The Swedish security police, Säpo, neither confirms nor denies Aftonbladet's information about his death.
According to Aftonbladet, information about the diplomat's death was shared internally within the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Swedish public broadcaster SVT reported earlier this week that, according to information it has received, the suspicion of espionage against the diplomat and the sudden resignation of the Swedish Prime Minister's security advisor are related.
Reuters: French crypto bosses have reacted with fear and anger after a series of violent kidnappings. While some have stepped up security and are considering bodyguards, others are calling for the right to bear arms, a tougher crackdown on crime plus deregulation to keep the crypto paper trail more anonymous.
On Tuesday, a masked gang tried to abduct the daughter of Pierre Noizat, the CEO of the French crypto firm Paymium, from a street in Paris in broad daylight. It was at least the third such attack in recent months.
In January, the co-founder of French crypto company Ledger and his wife were kidnapped, while in May the father of a crypto company head was snatched. All were rescued but both men lost a finger.
Hint: the top 10 stolen cars are ALL Italian.
Romanians will go to the polls today to choose between the Trump-brand candidate George Simion and pro-European independent Nicușor Dan. The last Europe Elects poll puts Dan is ahead of Simion. Both candidates support the end of Russia's war on Ukraine, but Dan wants Romania to continue supporting Ukraine, while Simion wishes Romania to stop aid going to Ukraine among other things. Simion’s campaign has also run into legal issues, which you can read about below.
A Romanian bank has blocked far right AUR party’s bank accounts for repeated failure of proving the origin of big sums of money.
Libra Bank has blocked AUR's accounts, along with the accounts of three companies in which the party's first vice-president, Marius Lulea, is associated, Economedia reports, citing government sources. Bank officials say they made the decision to block the respective accounts in the context in which Marius Lulea did not declare the source of his wealth. Furthermore, Libra Bank has notified the National Office for the Prevention of Money Laundering regarding " suspicious transactions" carried out by AUR.
France24: Poland goes to the polls on Sunday for the first round of presidential elections. In a country that borders Ukraine and plays a key role in Western support to Kyiv, the stakes are high. So, the authorities say, is the level of attempted Russian meddling. From stoking a migrant crisis on the eastern border, to disinformation, cyberattacks and arson, Poland's government believes it is currently the most targeted country in the EU for Russian destabilisation efforts. Our correspondent Gulliver Cragg reports.
ISD Investigation: How Russia Today is evading sanctions and spreading pro-Kremlin propaganda in Italy
Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has restricted access to the Kremlin-funded broadcaster RT (formerly Russia Today) in the bloc. However, research has consistently shown that RT and other sanctioned Russian outlets have been actively circumventing these restrictions for years through networks of proxy websites and spin-off outlets targeting European countries. ISD found that pro-Kremlin operations in Italy have increasingly combined on- and offline components, maximising their reach and effectively breaching EU sanctions on the “transmission or distribution by any means” of RT content.
Analysts found pro-Kremlin accounts promoting pro-Russian propaganda films and posters across Italy. These accounts are part of a network that includes Italian ‘independent journalists’ reporting from Russian-occupied Ukraine, former anti-lockdown groups, and both Italian and Russian officials. Content with this network reached almost two million users over the 60-day period from 1 January to 1 March 2025.
In other news…
NYT: U.S. Credit Receives Downgrade From Moody’s as Trump Pushes Costly Tax Cuts. The downgrade, to one notch below the highest triple-A rating, amounted to a political and economic repudiation of Washington.
Madi Kapparov: “The official reason is the increasing debt load. The real list of reasons is longer which should also include Trump, the recent panic on the bond market, and China's political resilience in the face of US pressure.”
AFP: Trump family hotel project in Serbia in doubt after forgery probe
Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners signed a 99-year land deal with the Serbian government last year to redevelop the former Yugoslav Army Headquarters, just months after its designation as a "cultural asset" was removed.
No work has yet started at the site, which has not been rebuilt since it was bombed several times in 1999 during the NATO air campaign that ended the war in Kosovo.
But on Tuesday, the prosecutor's office said it had opened an investigation into whether the document used by the government to revoke the building's protected status was forged.
The head of Serbia's Institute for the Protection of Cultural Monuments, Goran Vasic, was arrested on suspicion of "forgery of an official document" and admitted the charge in court.
Trump's special representative Steve Witkoff: "If Trump brings Iran and the Arab nations together, the Middle East could outpace the EU economically." He adds, "The Gulf is highly undervalued. Europe is dysfunctional. A united Gulf could overtake Europe."
Mo: I guess the rule of law, and respect for human rights means nothing to some of Trump’s advisors, not to mention that the EU is a stable geopolitical space.
It makes one wonder if authorities in the Trump administration don’t consider EU members as allies, but as a geopolitical entity to degrade. Is the US going to use the Middle East to destabilise the EU? This is not something I would normally write in clear, but there have been too many anti-EU statements from particular Trump administration officials to ignore.
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Use of Alien Enemies Act for Deportations
The Trump administration will not be allowed to deport a group of Venezuelan detainees under an 18th century wartime law while the matter is litigated in the courts, the Supreme Court said.
The Cipher Brief: WHAT WILL 20,000 NATIONAL GUARD TROOPS DO AT THE BORDER? – The Department of Homeland Security said Friday that it has requested that the Pentagon deploy 20,000 National Guard troops to help with the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal migrants.
Stars and Stripes reported that it wasn’t clear what those Guard troops would do. There are already more than 10,000 military forces — including active-duty soldiers and Marines and National Guard forces — stationed along the border to aid the U.S. Border Patrol, which has the authority to make arrests, Stars and Stripes reported. They include infantry forces with Stryker combat vehicles, troops that fly drones and helicopters, logisticians and engineering forces. However, the administration’s effort to declare a long stretch of borderland a restricted U.S. military zone was set back this week when a federal judge in New Mexico dismissed trespassing charges against dozens of migrants captured in that territory because federal attorneys could not prove that the migrants understood they were entering a restricted zone.
Homeland Security has reported a sharp decrease in illegal border crossings. Last month, 8,000 migrants were arrested crossing the border illegally, down from 128,000 arrests in April 2024.
WSJ: DHS Is Considering Reality Show Where Immigrants Compete for Citizenship
Department spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin said she had spoken to the producer of the proposed television reality show and that consideration of the idea was ongoing.
The pitch for the proposed citizenship-competition show comes from Rob Worsoff, a producer and writer whose credits include the “Duck Dynasty” reality show. Worsoff, who emigrated from Canada, told The Wall Street Journal that the show is meant to be hopeful and a celebration of what it means to be an American citizen.
“This isn’t ‘The Hunger Games’ for immigrants,” Worsoff said. Immigrants already in the system would compete in various contests including potentially on American history and science. Worsoff stressed that losing contestants wouldn’t face deportation. “This is not, ‘Hey, if you lose, we are shipping you out on a boat out of the country,’” he said.
In a 36-page slide deck reviewed by the Journal, Worsoff’s team outlines a reality-style TV show where, in one-hour episodes, immigrants compete to prove they are the most American. In one challenge set in San Francisco, for example, immigrants would compete in a gold rush competition where they are sent into a mine to retrieve the most gold. In another episode, contestants would be divided into teams and placed on an auto assembly line in Detroit to reassemble the chassis of a model T.
The Toronto Star news outlet produced a special on the Canadian federal election, which Mark Carney and former PM Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party won handily. It featured an interactive map to check the results in real time and perform searches.
