May 18: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Governor: Ukraine rescues 4 children from Russian-held territory of Kherson Oblast. The evacuated children are three brothers and a sister, aged from two to 12, according to Oleksandr Prokudin.
Russian attack on Kharkiv kills 3, injures 28. Russia struck the city of Kharkiv twice with aerial bombs on May 17, killing two and injuring 25 people, local authorities reported.
At least 5 injured in missile attack on Odesa. Ukraine's Air Force said that Russia had used three ballistic missiles in the attack, likely Iskander-M and three Kh-59/Kh-69 guided missiles.
United24: Russian troops have executed a person in a wheelchair near a hospital in Vovchansk, according to Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office. Authorities suspect the victim was trying to move away further from the medical facility, but was shot by the Russian forces.
I was waiting for verification on this story before publishing. There are actually no words to express how evil it is to kill someone in a wheelchair trying to get to safety. This stopped me in my tracks. The narratives of ‘negotiation’ are once again on the upswing. For example, an Italian politician that I used to respect believes Ukraine must surrender as it is the only path to peace. I’ll be sending her this photo.
May 17: Russia attacked Odesa region with 3 ballistic missiles and 3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles. All Kh-59/69 cruise missiles were destroyed, as well as 2 Zala recon drones, a Lancet kamikaze drone and 2 unidentified drone types. One person has died, and 8 wounded.
Ukrenergo: Russia launched attacks on 2 Ukrainian energy facilities overnight. Russian forces attacked two energy facilities in Ukraine with drones overnight on May 18, Ukraine's state-owned energy operator Ukrenergo reported.
Ukrenergo: Restrictions on energy supply for industrial users remain in effect due to power shortage. Limitations for industrial users will be applied from 7 p.m. to midnight local time on May 18, while restrictions for domestic users are not forecasted for the same day, according to Ukrenergo.
Me: the Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure is meant to coerce Ukraine into accepting the unacceptable: reduce production and economic capacity to reduce overall fighting capacity. The economy affects all aspects of offensive and defensive actions. The same could happen to Western economies if Russia should choose to attack our infrastructure through cyber and sabotage actions. Hence, why so many analysts and advisors are asking Western governments to increase resilience.
Washington Post: Ukrainian troops' Starlink connection suffered systemic failure amid Russian offensive. The drone feeds that soldiers relied on to keep track of Russian movements "completely disappeared," a Ukrainian soldier told the Washington Post.
Combat Situation Update
Starlink terminals were out of service for AFU soldiers on the day of the Russian offensive in Kharkiv, The Washington Post reports The publication reports that on the morning of May 10, communication with the drones "just disappeared," all video feeds were lost, and the unit commander said that "at some point we were left completely blind."
ISW: Northern Kharkiv: Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyptsi on May 17 and reportedly advanced near Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area.
Luhansk: Russian forces reportedly advanced northwest of Svatove and south of Kreminna on May 17.
Bakhmut: Russian forces continued assaults near Chasiv Yar on May 17 but did not make any confirmed advances.
Avdiivka: Geolocated footage published on May 15 and 16 shows that Russian forces marginally advanced along a windbreak southwest of Solovyove.
Donetsk City: Russian forces reportedly recently advanced west of Donetsk City. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced up to the western outskirts of Heorhiivka.
Kherson: Russian forces intensified assaults against Ukrainian positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on May 17.
The large-scale Ukrainian strikes (May16-17) against Russia summarised: Moscow reported a series of major drone attacks on three Russian regions and annexed Crimea early Friday morning, according to the Russian Min of Defence:
Russian air defenses downed more than 100 drones over the course of the attack, including 51 in Crimea, 44 in the Krasnodar Region, six in the Belgorod region, and one in the Kursk region.
Falling drone debris in Sevastopol reportedly hit a substation, causing part of the city to lose power; the authorities imposed rolling blackouts and canceled school while repairs are underway.
Multiple oil facilities were reportedly damaged in the Russian Black Sea cities of Novorossiysk and Tuapse, with several of them catching on fire.
Reuters: Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Tuapse refinery causes emergency shutdown. A source told Reuters that drones had struck the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) unit at the refinery but that the crude distillation unit (CDU) was not damaged.
A ‘fire’ occurred at the Novorossiysk substation "Kirillovskaya", as a result of which 26 thousand people were left without electricity, Novorossiysk Mayor Andrei Kravchenko reported in his telegram channel. Electricity is partially cut off in Tsemdolin, in the Primorsky and Central inner-city districts. There is no power supply in the area from Vasilyevka to Abrau-Durso.
Ukrainian drones hit military facilities in Russia, Crimea overnight. Ukrainian drones attacked several military facilities in Russia and in occupied Crimea overnight of May 17, Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing unnamed sources in special services. The operation was reportedly carried out by Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
Behind the Lines
NATO: “The world may be turning out to be a different place than we’d hoped, but NATO is turning out to be exactly what we need,” says SACEUR and U.S. European Command Commander Gen. Christopher Cavoli at an Atlantic Council event.
Putin is seeking to weaponise the threat of mass migration to divide and weaken Europe as supporters of Ukraine struggle to maintain unity to defeat Russia, Kaja Kallas, the Estonian prime minister said on Friday.
“What our adversaries know is migration is our vulnerability,” she said. “The aim is to make life really impossible in Ukraine so that there would be migration pressure to Europe, and this is what they are doing.”
She said Russia had already created the migration pressure through disruption in Syria and in Africa via the Wagner group.
“I think we have to understand that Russia is weaponising migration. Our adversaries are weaponising migration.
“They push the migrants over the border, and they create problems for the Europeans because they weaponise this since with human rights, you have to accept those people. And that is, of course, water to the mill of the far right.”
Supplies of aviation fuel from Belarus to Russia have sharply increased: it’s exported to Russian airports.
The Community of Railway Workers found out that there’s been a sharp increase in the production and export of aviation fuel from the Mazyr oil refinery to Russian airports over the last 10 days. The fuel is delivered by rail from Barbarau station (Mazyr district, Homiel region), which is located next to the Mazyr oil refinery, to fuel storage facilities at airports in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kursk and Petrozavodsk.
Currently, it’s known that aviation fuel is supplied from Mazyr refinery to: Vnukovo airport (VKO); Domodedovo airport (DME); Zhukovskiy airport (ZIA); Shilovo-3 oil pumping station; Pulkovo airport (LED); Kursk-Vostochny airport (URS); Petrozavodsk airport (PES).
The Community of Railway Workers notes that the largest volumes of aviation fuel are delivered to Shilovo-3, specifically to Shelukhovo railway station, where a loading rack designed to receive 36 tank cars is located. It supplies Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Zhukovskiy airports.
We recall that in early April, air defense units of the 147th and 1146th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiments were redeployed to Yelsk district to protect the Mazyr oil refinery. This measure was taken after the proposal to strike the refinery with drones. Now, given the unusual intensification of aviation fuel supplies to Russia, strengthening the security of the Mazyr oil refinery gets a new meaning.
Meanwhile in Russia
Reuters: A Russian court has ordered that UniCredit's (CRDI.MI), opens new tab assets, accounts, property and shares in subsidiary companies be seized as part of a lawsuit involving the Italian bank, according to court documents. The ruling by a St Petersburg arbitration court covers 462.7 million euros ($503.28 million) in securities, real estate and accounts belonging to UniCredit as well as 100% of shares in UniCredit Leasing and UniCredit Garant.
Putin said that Russia has no plans to capture Kharkiv and blames Ukraine for Russia’s attack on Kharkiv. Yes. That’s what he said.
"What is happening in the Kharkiv region is a fault of the Ukrainian authorities and a clear response to the shelling of the border regions in Russia." He also said that the 'Istanbul agreements' are the only basis for a possible negotiation process with Ukraine.
The largest importers of Russian coal - China, India and Turkey - sharply reduced their purchases in the first quarter of the year, Vedomosti writes , citing statistics from the Ministry of Energy. Exports to India and Turkey fell by half in the first three months compared with the same period last year, falling to 4.7 million tons and 4.1 million tons, respectively. China reduced purchases of Russian coal by 16%, to 12.9 million tons, and supplies from the Russian Federation to South Korea, Japan and Taiwan also decreased.
Julia Davis: Tempers flare as pundits and lawmakers discussed a proposal to vet potential public servants for homosexuality. State Duma member Vitaly Milonov floated his idea of striking homosexuals with ice picks, knives or sledgehammers.
Russia expelled the British defense attache in Moscow in a tit-for-tat move after London accused the Russian attache of being an “undeclared military intelligence officer.”
Russia claims explosion at St. Petersburg academy caused by World War Two ammunition. Russia's military reported on May 17 that a blast at the Budyonny Military Academy of the Signal Corps in St. Petersburg, which injured 7 servicemen, was caused by the accidental detonation of World War II-era ammunition.
VChV-OGPU: The S.M. Budyonny Military Academy of Communications in St. Petersburg has regularly been caught up in criminal chronicles.
In December 2013, a wall collapsed during renovations at the academy, crushing two workers from Tajikistan. One of them died in hospital from his injuries.
In 2018, it turned out that the collapsing facade of the academy posed a threat to cadets. At that time, the Committee for State Control, Use and Protection of Monuments of Architecture of St. Petersburg promised to fully restore the academy by 2023.
The building is an object of cultural heritage of regional significance ‘Nicholas Academy of the General Staff’. In 2023, several cadets died at the academy: three in March and one in August.
Russian authorities labeled the independent SOTA media outlet an “undesirable” organization, which puts staff and anyone who shares their reporting at risk of jail time.
Hungary vetoes Council of Europe resolution supporting Ukraine's peace formula. In a post on Facebook, Peter Szijjarto said that "other plans" had been proposed by others but were not being considered by the Council, and the exclusion of Russia from the body meant peace negotiations could not work. The minister did not specify which other plans he was referring to.
Allied Support
Britain has added three new designations to its North Korea sanctions list, relating its military programmes, and one to its Russia sanctions regime.
The government imposed asset freezes on Paekyangsan Shipping Co, Toplivo Bunkering Company, as well as Toplivo Bunkering company director Aleksey Mikhailovich Vorotnikov, a Russian national. It sanctioned Russian group Vostochnaya Stevedore Limited Liability Company, Reuters reported.
EU suspends 4 more Russian propaganda outlets. Voice of Europe, RIA Novosti, Izvestia, and Rossiyskaya Gazeta were recognized as such that spread and supported Russian propaganda and the war against Ukraine. (infograph: Artur Rehi)
Lithuania to supply Ukraine with 6 radars within German-led air defense initiative. The approximate date of the radars' arrival in Ukraine, as well as the amount of Lithuanian contribution, were not specified. As part of ongoing military support to Ukraine, Lithuania sent ammunition, anti-drone systems, UAVs, 100kW generators and folding beds.
The bill implies imposing fines on persons who don’t disclose arbitrarily demanded info on organizations (funding is already declared to the state and transparent) and even the personal information of employees protected by the personal data protection of the state.
Anna Gvarashvili: Ivanishvili’s wife shared this video on her official account in response to the protests in Georgia. It perpetuates the Kremlin theme that the Maidan Revolution is the reason behind Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Me: the ‘Ukrainisation’ of Georgia is a theme which is being widely used to discredit the protesters. The same theme (‘Ukrainisation’ and photos of Stepan Bandera) is also being used in the Philippines. In Georgia there’s an added feature: the protest is leading to a US-led revolution.
The G7 Working Group on Cyber Security, chaired by Italian National Cybersecurity Agency Director Bruno Frattasi, convened to discuss policies for countering and preventing cyber threats, particularly the interdependence between AI and cybersecurity. The meeting also addressed protecting democratic processes from cyber and disinformation threats, focusing on the upcoming European elections.
The aim is to take preventive measures to secure infrastructures and systems that could be vulnerable to attacks by malicious actors seeking to undermine the integrity of the elections. Implementing these preventive measures ensures a smooth and orderly electoral process. “The meeting addressed the risk of interference in the electoral process,” said Frattasi, adding that this issue was also analysed “from the perspective of disinformation used as a tool for manipulation and interference against Western democracies”.
Slovak PM Fico undergoes 2nd surgery, still in serious condition following assassination attempt. The Dennik N media outlet reported that none of the doctors personally attending to Fico have spoken publicly.
China announced "historic" steps to stabilize the crisis-hit property sector, allowing local governments to buy "some" apartments, relaxing mortgage rules and pledging to deliver unfinished homes.
AI videos are spreading fast in India as the election progresses, highlighting the growing threat of misinformation in the world's most populous nation. A World Economic Forum survey in January claimed the risk from misinformation in India is higher than the risk from infectious diseases or illicit economic activity.
New Caledonia's Pacific neighbors called for de-escalation and a return to dialogue between France and the island territory's political parties, after a third night of violent riots that have killed four people and led to hundreds of arrests.
US President Joe Biden and Republican rival Donald Trump agreed to face off in two debates on June 27 and Sept. 10, setting up the highest stakes moments yet of the race for the White House.
Meta's social media sites Facebook and Instagram will be investigated for potential breaches of EU online content rules relating to child safety, EU regulators said, a move that could lead to hefty fines.
French police in Rouen shot dead an armed man who set fire to a synagogue in the northwestern city. Police were called to the site because of smoke coming out of the building. The fire has been brought under control.
The Economist: A Russia-linked network uses AI to rewrite real news stories
In the 1980s the kgb had a well-worn method for pumping disinformation around the world. “We preferred to work on genuine documents,” recalled Oleg Kalugin, a former kgb general, “with some additions and changes.” That method has not changed greatly, but technology has accelerated the process. In early March a network of websites, dubbed CopyCop, began publishing stories in English and French on a range of contentious issues. They accused Israel of war crimes, amplified divisive political debates in America over slavery reparations and immigration and spread nonsensical stories about Polish mercenaries in Ukraine.
That is not unusual for Russian propaganda. What was new was that the stories had been taken from legitimate news outlets and modified using large language models, most likely one built by Openai, the American firm that operates Chatgpt. An investigation published on May 9th by Recorded Future, a threat-intelligence company, found that the articles had been translated and edited to add a partisan bias. In some cases the prompt—the instruction to the ai model—was still visible. These were not subtle. More than 90 French articles, for instance, were altered with the following instruction in English: “Please rewrite this article taking a conservative stance against the liberal policies of the Macron administration in favour of working-class French citizens.”
Another rewritten piece included evidence of its slant: “It is important to note that this article is written with the context provided by the text prompt. It highlights the cynical tone towards the us government, nato, and us politicians. It also emphasises the perception of Republicans, Trump, DeSantis, Russia, and rfk Jr as positive figures, while Democrats, Biden, the war in Ukraine, big corporations, and big pharma are portrayed negatively.”
Recorded Future says that the network has ties to dc Weekly, an established disinformation platform run by John Mark Dougan, an American citizen who fled to Russia in 2016. CopyCop had published more than 19,000 articles across 11 websites by the end of March 2024, many of them probably produced and posted automatically. In recent weeks, the network has “started garnering significant engagement by posting targeted, human-produced content”, it adds. One such story—a far-fetched claim that Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, had purchased King Charles’s house at Highgrove, in Gloucestershire—was viewed 250,000 times in 24 hours, and was later circulated by Russia’s embassy in South Africa.