May 19: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines InRussia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
On the night of May 17–18, Ukraine's air defense shot down 88 Shahed drones, while 128 decoy UAVs were neutralized with no impact. One Russian drone remains airborne. In total, Russia launched 273.
Russia launched an artillery attack on a building of the railway station and adjacent streets in the Tsentralnyi district in Kherson.
Russia launches record 273-drone attack on Ukraine ahead of planned Trump-Putin call. Ukraine's Air Force said it intercepted 88 drones, while 128 others vanished from radars, likely used as decoys to overwhelm air defenses. The assault involved coordinated use of electronic warfare units, mobile fire teams, and anti-aircraft systems.
Russians attacked a garbage truck and posted the video to brag about it. The video is posted here today because it demonstrates that the Russian forces have the capabilities for targeted precision strikes, and purposefully chose to hit civilians.
Russian drone attack in Kyiv Oblast kills 1, injures 3 and kills 1, injures 8 people in Donetsk Oblast.. An overnight Russian drone strike in Kyiv Oblast killed one person and injured three more, Governor Mykola Kalashnyk reported on May 18.
Serhii Kyslytsia, a member of Ukraine’s delegation at Istanbul, stated that the Russian representatives, led by Vladimir Medinsky, behaved aggressively and issued direct threats to the Ukrainian side.
"There was a chilling moment when the Russians are reported to have threatened their interlocutors like gangsters.
‘Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones,’ Mednisky said. Russia is prepared to fight forever."
Sky News noted that this situation holds personal significance for Kyslytsia, whose nephew, Maks, was killed in 2022 fighting Russian forces shortly after the start of Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine.
The news outlet reported that the Russian side showed no willingness for constructive dialogue, instead demanding the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces from four temporarily occupied regions and two additional regions, without conditions.
Like Andrew says…
Combat Situation
The Ukrainian military is building a new defensive line in Donetsk region. The line includes anti-tank trenches, dragon’s teeth, and barbed wire obstacles, according to the General Staff.
The UK Ministry of Defence has reported minor tactical successes by Russian forces in Donetsk Oblast over the past month, particularly near the city of Kostiantynivka.
UK Defence Intelligence notes that over the past month, Russian forces have made increased tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast, particularly near Kostiantynivka, which is adjacent to the large urban areas of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
"Russia is carrying out attacks in three areas: Chasiv Yar (12 km to the north-east), Toretsk (15 km to the south-east) and to the east of Pokrovsk along the H-32 highway [now marked T0504 on the map – ed]."
Despite Russian claims of capturing the front line village of Bahatyr, Ukrainian soldiers from Ukraine's 33rd Mechanized Brigade showed the situation on the ground. It still holds presence in the village despite all claims.
Russia keeps trying to cross the Dnipro — several attempts every day to sneak in assault or recon-sabotage groups, according to Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesman for the Southern Defense Forces.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian ammunition depot in occupied Crimea, source says. The depot, located near a key highway between Simferopol and Alushta, reportedly housed military equipment, ammunition, and fuel storage facilities. Local residents reportedly described thick smoke over the military compound.
France’s new laser rifle silently melts electronics at 500 meters — and Ukrainian infantry could really use it Built for stealth and sabotage, the HELMA-LP laser gun disables tech targets at range.
Denmark has announced a new $600 million military aid package for Ukraine, which will include self-propelled artillery, artillery ammunition (via the Czech initiative), and equipment for Ukraine’s Air Force, according to the Danish Ministry of Defense.
Russia has upgraded its Shahed drones, making them harder to shoot down. They’re now faster (200+ km/h), fly up to 3 km high, can dive at 400 km/h, resist GPS jamming, and carry 90 kg warheads instead of 50.
The UK will form a guard to protect power stations, airports and telecommunications facilities from attacks by enemy states and terrorists, the government's Strategic Defence Review (SDR) for the UK says, The Times reports . The unit will consist of several thousand volunteers. Among other things, they will protect nuclear power plants and coastal communications hubs with internet cables that connect the UK to the rest of the world.
War Translated: German startup Stark has unveiled the OWE-V "Virtus" kamikaze drone, designed with combat experience from Ukraine in mind. It features vertical takeoff and landing, autonomous targeting, a range of up to 100 km, speeds up to 250 km/h, a 5 kg payload, and can operate even without a connection. The video was shared by the Aeronavty group.
Russia’s playing the intimidation game again — planning a “training-combat” launch of a Yars ICBM on the night of May 19, according to Ukraine’s intel. The move is aimed at pressuring Ukraine, the EU, and NATO. The missile, with a mock warhead, will be launched from Sverdlovsk region and can fly over 10,000 km.
Col. Gen. Mordvichev said Russia will invade more Eastern European countries and Ukraine is just the beginning. Putin appointed him Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces. Known among the rank-and-file as General 200 for his ruthless disregard for soldiers' lives.
Mo: on the part of the Russians, this is a nice piece of psychological warfare since it is meant (perhaps) to instill fear or discourage NATO member states and their support for Ukraine and their own rearmament. Going back to ancient times, the prelude to warfare included declarations of assured defeat, and intimidation—for example, beating drums to scare the enemy and make their forces seem much larger and more powerful than they actually were. The Romans were very good at this sort of thing.
Behind the Lines
Trump will be speaking with president Zelensky, Putin and NATO member leaders today. The Kremlin confirms the call has been scheduled.
President Zelensky and his top aides met in Rome with US Vice President JD Vance, the first meeting between the two men since their blow-up in the White House in February.
Zelensky called it a “good meeting.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio was also present. Photos show them all smiles, quite a difference from the Oval Office.
“We discussed the negotiations in Istanbul, where the Russians sent a low-level delegation with no decision-making authority,” Zelensky said. “I reaffirmed Ukraine’s readiness for real diplomacy and stressed the importance of a full and unconditional ceasefire as soon as possible.”
“We also touched on the need for sanctions against Russia, bilateral trade, defense cooperation, the situation on the battlefield, and the future exchange of prisoners. Pressure on Russia must continue until it is ready to stop the war. And, of course, we discussed our joint steps to achieve a just and sustainable peace.”
Macron believes Trump will "react to Putin's cynicism" in the face of Russia's rejection of ceasefire proposals. He emphasized that Trump, claiming to be aiming for peace, will respond to Putin's disregard for negotiations, after recent talks in Istanbul.
According to a poll by the Rating Group, 74% Ukrainians support a 30-day ceasefire without conditions but they are skeptical the talks will bring peace soon. Most think Ukraine should continue showing openness to negotiations.
Military expert and former SBU officer Ivan Stupak predicts Russia may not return to the negotiating table until October, as they have the upper hand on the frontlines. With a summer offensive being prepared, talks are unlikely before a potential economic collapse later this year.
In the meantime, Putin extends Russia’s national defense plan by 2 years — now in effect until 2027, per official decree. This comes shortly after he signed a law enforcing mandatory one-year military conscription.
U.S. Sec. of State Marco Rubio says the Vatican could host peace talks between Ukraine and Russia — but stops short of calling it a mediator. “It’s not a mediator, but a place both sides might feel comfortable turning to,” he noted. On Face the Nation, Rubio added that Trump would like to meet with Putin as soon as possible — the time and place are being decided. He warned that the U.S. Congress is prepared to impose new sanctions on Russia if there is no progress in negotiations.
Mo: Translation—The U.S. doesn’t want the Vatican to step on its toes in any way. Both the US and Russia are now engaged in stalling tactics as Rubio also reiterated that Russia would be presenting their ‘proposals’.
In an interview last night, Putin said that the goal of the so-called "SVO" is to fix the "crisis," ensure long-term peace, and protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians—a narrative that has evolved over 3 years. He has not moved one iota from his initial position.
The only way Russia will stop their attacks on Ukraine is if it decides to do so on its own—either because the state collapses or is under extreme existential threat and needs to control the fallout.
Rheinmetall plans to team up with Lockheed Martin to mass-produce missiles in Europe — including for Patriot air defense systems.
CEO Armin Papperger says U.S. plants can’t meet demand fast enough: “Sometimes you wait 10 years for delivery.”
Plans include ATACMS, GMLRS, Hellfire, JAGM, and PAC-3. Production could hit 10,000 units/year by 2027.
President Zelensky met with Canadian PM Mark Carney in Rome. They spoke about Canadian support for Ukraine and current efforts to stop the war. Zelensky said that they ha discussed sanctions in detail, including secondary, energy, and those targeting the Russian shadow fleet.
“We talked about defense cooperation and the development of the coalition of willing countries. Grateful for the invitation to attend the G7 meeting. Looking forward to welcoming the Prime Minister to Ukraine!”
Russia sentences Australian fighting for Ukraine to 13 years in prison in sham trial. The so-called Supreme Court of the Russian-controlled Luhansk Oblast found Jenkins guilty under Russian criminal law for participating in armed conflict as a mercenary.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
After EU threats of crackdown on Russian oil transports, and uncertainty around how Trump will react when he finally gets dissed by Putin on Ukraine, Russia has stepped up its Baltic military escorts of the shadow fleet transporting oil.
“Russia has begun measures to deter interdiction by Western nations and to increase its ability rapidly respond to any further attempts to staunch the flow of oil from its shores.”
Moscow Times Russian Service: Rosstat has stopped publishing detailed demographic data amid a continuing decline in the birth rate, which, despite calls from officials, set a minimum in the country's modern history in 2025.
From the monthly report on "natural population movement", which Rosstat published on Friday , figures for the last reporting month on the number of births and deaths, monthly data on the number of marriages and divorces were removed, and all statistics by region have completely disappeared (earlier, figures were published separately for each subject), demographer Alexei Raksha noted.
CEPA: Ex-Russian central banker Viktor Gerashchenko, who died last week, helped build a global shadow banking network used by the KGB and its successor entities starting at the end of the 1950s.
The importance of the former head of both the Soviet and Russian central banks to his native Russia may be judged from his nickname of Hercules (in Russian, Gerakl, reminiscent of his shortened name), the foremost hero of the Ancient Greeks.
A professional banker from a family of the Soviet elite — his father was the first deputy chief of the Soviet State Bank under Stalin — Gerashchenko managed to lead the central bank four times. A former Soviet dignitary, who once was a member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, he built a successful career in new Russia as it adjusted to the unfamiliar world of free markets.
During the Cold War, working in this field meant working abroad, providing some of the most sensitive services to the regime in Moscow — from selling natural resources to the West and buying grain there to funding friendly Communist parties and “independence movements” around the world.
To carry out these operations, the Soviet Union maintained a large network of state-owned foreign banks (known as sovzagranbanki) spanning cities from London to Singapore, and Tehran to Paris and Zurich. The oldest and most prominent of these was the Moscow Narodny Bank in London, opened in 1919 after the Soviet government nationalized a pre-revolutionary Russian bank.
Gerashenko was appointed a director at the London bank in 1965 when he was 28 years old. By then, six years had passed since Soviet foreign banks had received a new mandate: to conduct operations that would be untraceable by American financial authorities — “to make Soviet dollar transactions impenetrable for the US government,” as one senior Russian banker told us.
Mo—fun fact: the same offshore banking and payment system was introduced in covert action programmes by Bill Casey, former director of the CIA, in the early years of the Reagan administration. The goal was to find alternative funding channels to circumvent congressional restrictions that had been placed by the Hughes-Ryan Amendment for emolients to the Contras. Casey was a lawyer and had worked on Wall Street prior to joining the CIA. That being said, there may have been other attempts during the First and Second World Wars to get funds and materiel to European allies.
Military Times: CIA: China is waging a ‘quiet kind of cold war’ against US
China is waging a “quiet kind of cold war” against the United States, using all its resources to try to replace America as the leading power in the world, a top CIA expert on Asia said Friday.
Beijing doesn't want to go to war, he said, but the current communist government, under President Xi Jingping, is subtly working on multiple fronts to undermine the U.S. in ways that are different than the more well-publicized activities being employed by Russia.
"I would argue ... that what they're waging against us is fundamentally a cold war — a cold war not like we saw during THE Cold War (between the U.S. and the Soviet Union) but a cold war by definition," Michael Collins, deputy assistant director of the CIA's East Asia mission center, said at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado.
There is concern over China’s pervasive efforts to steal business secrets and details about high-tech research being conducted in the U.S. The Chinese military is expanding and being modernized and the U.S., as well as other nations, have complained about China’s construction of military outposts on islands in the South China Sea.
"I would argue that it's the Crimea of the East," Collins said, referring to Russia's brash annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, which was condemned throughout the West.
On Wednesday, FBI Director Christopher Wray said China, from a counterintelligence perspective, represents the broadest and most significant threat America faces. He said the FBI has economic espionage investigations in all 50 states that can be traced back to China.
"The volume of it. The pervasiveness of it. The significance of it is something that I think this country cannot underestimate," Wray said.
Lettre said China also is pursuing advances in cyber, artificial intelligence, engineering and technology, counter-space, anti-satellite capabilities and hypersonic glide weapons. Army Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told a congressional committee earlier this year that China is developing long-range cruise missiles — some capable of reaching supersonic speeds.
"The Pentagon has noted that the Chinese have already pursued a test program that has had 20 times more tests than the U.S. has," Lettre said.
In the EU…
European dignitaries gathered in Rome for Pope Leo’s ascension: president Zelensky and First Lady Olena Zelenska are seated next to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Also in attendance: European Parliament head Roberta Metsola and Spain’s King Felipe and Queen Letizia.
Pope Leo XIV held his first private audience as Catholic leader on Sunday with president Zelensky, after highlighting the hopes for peace for a "martyred Ukraine".
Romania at the Polls: Romanians are voting in a pivotal presidential run-off that could radically alter their country’s strategic alignment and economic prospects, as diaspora voters in the EU also cast their ballots in a European electoral “super Sunday”. Recent polls show that the candidates are neck and neck.
ROMANIA INITIAL RESULTS: as of 9pm May 18, Nicusor Dan is leading with 54.9%, to Georgia Simion’s 45.1%. The turnout was 65%, which is an increase from the first round. The full election round up will be published on May 19, along with the full results of the elections in Poland and Portugal.
Reuters: Poles voted on Sunday in a presidential election that will decide whether Warsaw follows the pro-European path set by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, or take a step towards bringing back the nationalist admirers of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump's return to power has energised eurosceptics across Europe, and Sunday's ballot will be the sternest test of Tusk's pro-European vision since he came to power in 2023, ousting the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Polls opened across Portugal on Sunday as millions of voters started casting their ballots in a third parliamentary election in as many years, though many are bracing for more uncertainty as the vote is unlikely to deliver a stable government.
Sunday's ballot was called just one year into the centre-right minority government's term after Prime Minister Luis Montenegro failed to win parliament's confidence in March in a vote he himself proposed when the opposition questioned his integrity over the dealings of his family's consultancy firm.
Rand Report on AI-Generated Content:
The emergence of ubiquitous, powerful generative AI poses a potential national security threat in terms of the risk of misuse by U.S. adversaries (in particular, for social media manipulation) that the U.S. government and broader technology and policy community should proactively address now. Although the authors focus on China and its People's Liberation Army as an illustrative example of the potential threat, a variety of actors could use generative AI for social media manipulation, including technically sophisticated nonstate actors (domestic as well as foreign). The capabilities and threats discussed in this Perspective are likely also relevant to other actors, such as Russia and Iran, that have already engaged in social media manipulation.
Mo: the greatest threat on social media platforms, and by extension the welfare of our political health, will come from the manipulation of visual and audio content. We simply will not know what is real and what isn’t, and this video demonstrates that it is now possible to do so.
That being said, the use of manipulated visual and audio content will be included in a wider offensive by malign actors: it won’t be used on its own because it can be debunked by official sources.
For example, deepfakes could be disseminated on social media with images of an enemy invasion force followed by a black out of the communications networks and electrical grid of the defending nation. Citizens wouldn’t know if the invasion were real or not since they would have no way of verifying it. Deepfakes could be used persistently for a few months prior to a large-scale attack against a country’s leadership to sow discontent or to incite protests against them.
Cyber offensives are not just strikes against public or private entities: they can incorporate many forms of online manipulated content.
Turkish President Erdogan announced the discovery of a new gas field in the Black Sea, Hurriyet reports . According to the head of state, this is the Goktepe-3 well, which has natural gas reserves of 75 billion cubic meters. "A new gas field has been discovered at the Goktepe-3 well in the Black Sea. Its volume is 75 billion cubic meters, and its economic value is $30 billion. These reserves will be able to provide our households with gas for about three and a half years," Erdogan said.
EU prepares sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet, German FM says. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Germany and its allies are responding to hybrid threats in the Baltic region with increased patrols and renewed pressure on Russia's covert shipping operations.
Belgium announced that it is ready to transfer 20 Cerber air defense systems to Ukraine as well as:
About 100 armored ambulances and Unimog transport vehicles; 5 unmanned marine vessels; drones, helmets, medical equipment; portable drone detection systems, night vision goggles; protective clothing against chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats; more than 16,000 weapons and cannons; 20 modernized Cerberus-type anti-aircraft missile systems; 1 Leopard battle tank with a modernized gun turret for testing.
Chancellor Merz emphasized that Europe is not considering troop deployments to Ukraine at this stage. The priority remains achieving an unconditional ceasefire and addressing violence. Discussions are now focused on defining the framework for peace talks and potential security guarantees for Ukraine.
President Zelensky and his Swiss counterpart Karin Keller-Sutter have discussed a ceasefire and the need to increase pressure on Russia during a meeting in Rome.
During their meeting, the leaders discussed a ceasefire, continued support for Ukraine, the need to increase pressure on Russia, humanitarian mine clearance, the implementation of school meals projects in Ukrainian schools and food security.
"The president of Ukraine emphasised the importance of coordinating efforts with the United States, maintaining unity and jointly pressuring Russia to achieve at least the first step toward ending the war – a full and unconditional ceasefire," the press service reported.
Special attention was given to continued assistance to Ukraine, particularly funding the participation of Swiss companies in reconstruction.
AFP: UK to strike new deal with EU in coming days: PM's office
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to sign a new deal with the EU seeking to reset ties after Brexit, his office said Saturday ahead of landmark talks.
"This week, the prime minister will strike yet another deal that will deliver in the national interest of this country," Downing Street said in a statement, also pointing to recent trade deals with the United States and India.
Starmer will welcome EU bosses Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa as well as top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas for Monday's talks at the storied Lancaster House venue in London.
"The prime minister will set out how a strengthened, forward-looking partnership with the European Union will deliver for working people and lead to more money in pockets," the statement said.
Australian PM Albanese played down prospects of securing a breakthrough on a free trade agreement with the EU, when he meets with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Rome. Australia in October 2023 rejected EU proposals for a free trade agreement that the two sides negotiated since 2018 - a move that was expected to foreclose prospects of a deal for several years.
Australia, Canada, New Zealand: “Reaffirming the importance of international rules, norms and standards, we call on Russia to end its illegal invasion and work constructively towards a just and lasting peace for the people of Ukraine.”
DFRLab: One cut too many for Moldova’s democracy
After the January 2025 suspension, Kremlin-aligned actors wasted no time. USAID’s withdrawal was repackaged as “proof” of Western meddling, followed by a flood of near-identical posts claiming the agency funded “troll factories” and helped President Maia Sandu rig the 2024 elections. Anonymous Telegram channels, Kremlin-controlled media, and Moldova’s pro-Russian voices (think Dodon, Shor) worked in sync. The Russia-linked operation, Pravda network, was there to amplify the false claims. Then it jumped kind of offline: fake messages, posing as Moldova’s tax service, urged people to redirect their income tax to the ruling party, blaming the USAID cuts.
Why does it matter?
The USAID withdrawal didn’t just leave a funding gap; it created an opening. One that pro-Kremlin forces are exploiting to shake confidence in Moldova’s democracy, cast doubt on past and future elections, and frame Western support as foreign interference. In 2024, during both the presidential election and the EU referendum in Moldova, the scale and aggressiveness of foreign interference we witnessed was unprecedented.
And yet, Moldovans pushed back. The vote held. The mandate for Europe stood.
But this fight isn’t over. With the 2025 parliamentary elections ahead, I keep asking myself: Who will write Moldova’s next chapter – its people, or those who manipulate from outside?
Eurovision Song Contest: Austria was favoured going into Saturday night’s finale, and it did not disappoint. JJ’s performed the song, “Wasted Love” in operatic tones. The second placed winner was Israel with Yuval Raphael’s performance of “New Day Will Rise”.
Both funny and scary—Opposites Day—shows how Russian disinformation works.
In other news…
Two dead after Mexican Navy training ship strikes Brooklyn Bridge, NYC mayor says. At least two people were killed when the Mexican Navy sailing ship Cuauhtémoc struck the Brooklyn Bridge Saturday night, according to New York City Mayor Eric Adams. “At this time, of the 277 on board, 19 sustained injuries, 2 of which remain in critical condition and 2 more have sadly passed away from their injuries,” Adams wrote on X. The two individuals who died fell from one of the ship’s masts, a law enforcement official told CNN. They were pronounced dead after being taken to a nearby hospital, the official said.
Follow up on yesterday’s story about the down-grading of US economy from triple A status. Trump reacts with his usual subtly.
Michael Weiss: Explains why the U.S. went along with the European ceasefire fandango. They made Putin an offer. He rejected it. So now rather than penalize him, they keep on making him offers to reject.
