May 2 Buonsera Up-date

Ukraine, Embargo, Gerasimov, Scholz and 'accidents'

May 02, 2022

Day 68 of Ukraine resistance. 100 civilians evacuated from Azovstal steelworks thanks to the mediation of UN, ICRC. It is expected to continue today. Russian missile strike destroyed a grain storage in Dnipro region. Russians are trying to advance towards Sloviansk in Donetsk reg

Catching up…

EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.

Here are some other stories we’re following…

The BBC- Ministers are discussing an embargo on Russian oil, but Hungary has made it clear it will block consensus. The EC might exempt Hungary and Slovakia considering how deeply they are dependent on Russian crude.

The Kyiv Independent- The Russian forces have destroyed the renowned Lysychansk Gymnasium in Luhansk. It was part of the Belgian architectural heritage of the region, and one of the top 100 schools in Ukraine.
Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reports on May 1 that Russia’s attempts to advance in Zaporizhzhia region have failed. Russian forces shelled civilian areas in Orikhove.
Ukraine identifies first suspect in Bucha massacre. Sergey Kolotsey, commander of a Russian National Guard unit allegedly killed four unarmed men on March 18 and tortured another civilian on March 29, according to Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova.
Olga Lautman- “Putin signed a law that bans information security tools "from unfriendly countries" and allows the FSB to access the websites of state institutions. The ban will take effect from the beginning of 2025.”
Michael MacKay- “23,800 Russian soldiers are "Cargo 200" (military code for bodies of dead soldiers transported from the battlefield) since Feb 24.”
DW- "I respect pacifism," said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a May Day rally, "but it must seem cynical to the citizens of Ukraine to be told to fight back against Putin's aggression without weapons."
Ivana Stradner- “The intensity of Information operations in the Balkans is growing and the fact that they mirror Russian info ops in Ukraine is telling. Similar patterns of the WWII narratives is omnipresent. Russia’s proxies are setting informational conditions for Moscow’s activities.”

As per RadioFreeEurope/ Radio Liberty, 22 ‘incidents’ have been reported in Russia since February 24. While some could be accidents, acts of sabotage by Russian or Ukrainian actors cannot be discounted.

In this latest ‘incident’, RIA Novosti reports that "[i]n Perm, two people died in an emergency at a gunpowder factory, one victim is in the hospital. The enterprise manufactures charges for Grad and Smerch multiple launch rocket systems and air defense systems."

Roman Motychak 🇺🇦 @motytchak

Grad and Smerch MLRS rockets producer is on fire itself today in russian city of Perm. 🤔 #ctrlZ op in action.

Olga Lautman 🇺🇦 @OlgaNYC1211

And another fire in Russia. This time in Mytishchi, Moscow oblast . Apparently a warehouse. Becoming a daily occurrence

Rumours…

We received confirmation of yesterday's explosion in Izyum near the Russian headquarters and Belgorod. The Head of Staff for the Russian forces General Gerasimov is rumoured to have been there to lead an attack on Slovyansk.

Michael Weiss 🌻🇺🇸🇮🇪 @michaeldweiss

Not independently verified but… Ukrainian military intelligence tells me Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the general staff, was “lightly injured” in an artillery strike in Izyum. Gerasimov was evacuated. Another general and “dozens of high staff officers were killed.”

Evacuating Mariupol

UN: An operation to evacuate civilians trapped in a steelworks in the southern city of Mariupol is under way.

Maria Avdeeva @maria_avdv

Evacuation of civilians from Mariupol Azovstal began. A first group of 100 evacuees on the way to Zaporizhzhia. It is hard to imagine what these women and children went through in those two months.

Illia Ponomarenko: How Russia killed 3 cities of my life

“Mom, you just have to get out,” I was saying into the phone, again and again.
“I’ve bought you a ticket, take the night train and come to Kyiv. It’s for your safety, just leave the town for some time. Nobody knows if the worst is to happen soon.”

Fighting Corruption…

This is one organisation that deserves to be bookmarked: the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project. They have also contributed significantly to reports with evidence from the Panama and Pandora Papers. Check out the Russian Asset Tracker on the site.