May 20 : E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSit BehindLines InRussiaChina InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
2 killed, 23 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day. According to Ukraine's Air Force, Russia attacked with 273 drones overnight, including Iranian-designed Shahed-type suicide drones.
ISW: Russian forces conducted the largest single drone strike of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18 – in disregard of US President Donald Trump's calls for Russia to stop long-range strikes against Ukraine, particularly against Kyiv Oblast.
ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are innovating their long-range drone strike tactics in order to offset the effectiveness of Ukrainian mobile defense units and overwhelm the Ukrainian air defense umbrella.
President Zelensky became the first foreign leader to meet the newly inaugurated Pope Leo XIV on Sunday. Pope Leo and president Zelensky exchanged gifts: Zelensky gave Pope Leo an icon painted on a war-scarred artillery crate from Izium. He urged the Vatican to back Ukraine in the fight to bring home deported children taken by Russia. In his first public address after his enthronement, the Pope said, “The martyred Ukraine is finally awaiting negotiations for a just and lasting peace.”
Combat Situation
Russian forces failed to regain control of the border checkpoint between Sumy and Kursk regions. Soldiers from the Pentagon unit of the 225th Assault Regiment used kamikaze drones to strike Russian troops who attempted to break through on motorcycles and ATVs.
Russia lost 50,000 troops trying to take a Ukrainian town with 48 residents. Ten months of assaults. 170 attacks in one week. Still no breakthrough in Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are holding the line. Video: 100th Mech Bde, UAF.
Overnight in Dzhankoi, occupied Crimea: automatic gunfire, drone flybys, and explosions were reported. According to local sources, there were hits on the military airfield. The aftermath is being confirmed. The airfield hosts the 39th Helicopter Regiment and various aviation units.
Ukraine conducted strikes on a large concentration of Russian soldiers hiding out in a school building in Bolshesoldatsky district of Kursk region.
Russian tank losses in Ukraine — Syrskyi claims 1,159 'hit' since start of year. At the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia was estimated to have around 3,300 operational tanks.
Behind the Lines
Trump and Putin phone call: Julia Davis posts, “Right about now, Putin is probably telling Trump that in the year 862, the people of the city of Novgorod invited a Viking called Rurik to reign over them.”
During the phone call, Putin declined to endorse the proposed 30-day unconditional ceasefire, which US officials had said was the main aim of the call. He claimed Russia supported a halt to hostilities, but insisted it was necessary to “develop the most effective paths toward peace”.
Crucially, Putin repeated his long-standing refrain that the “root causes” of the war must be addressed - a reference to Russia’s maximalist demands that would undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty.
These demands include forcing Ukraine to “de-Nazify” and demilitarise, cutting back its armed forces, barring it from receiving western military support, and imposing sweeping limits on its sovereignty.”
Ya da Ya da Ya da—same old, same old. European defence trading saw a spike in volume today, and indicating they didn’t have any confidence in the claimed importance of the Trump-Putin call. Europe moves forward in increasing its defence capabilities.
Interim President Ilie Bolojan has signed into law the bill allowing the downing of drones that illegally enter Romania's airspace, as well as the law regulating military missions during peacetime.
Australia has started shipping 49 retired M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine — ABC News confirms. Despite U.S. approval, some American officials are privately frustrated, questioning the battlefield value of the aging vehicles.
The US and EU will ramp up sanctions on Russia if Putin refuses peace talks “in a spirit of good will,” says Treasury Sec. Scott Bessan to CBS News. Bessant admits past sanctions were ineffective, blaming Biden’s soft approach. Trump, he says, has made the stakes clear.
Austria is not ruling out joining a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, but it will depend on the mission’s mandate. This was stated by Austria’s Federal Defense Minister Claudia Tanner in an interview with Die Welt.
Finland will send €90M worth of heavy ammunition to Ukraine—funded by proceeds from frozen Russian assets. The deal, made with the EU, boosts both Ukraine’s defense and Finnish industry, says Defence Minister Häkkänen.
Russia detained the Greek oil tanker Green Admire near Gogland Island on Sunday. The ship had left Estonia’s Sillamäe port and was following a route agreed by Russia, Estonia, and Finland for safe navigation, according to Estonia’s Foreign Ministry.
Trump growing impatient with Russia, Finnish president says. "If you put it together, you could say that Zelensky is patient and President Trump is getting impatient, but in the right direction, which is towards Russia," Finnish President Alexander Stubb said after holding separate talks with both Trump and Zelensky this weekend.
At the Istanbul talks, Russia demanded Ukraine surrender non-occupied territories, abandon its sovereignty, alliances, arms industry, and Western weapons — Zelensky's top advisor Podolyak told Rzeczpospolita. He added the Russian delegation acted arrogantly, just like in 2022.
Meanwhile in Russia & China..
Atlantic Council Event: On Tuesday, May 20 at 11:30 a.m. ET, the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and Cyber Statecraft Initiative host a hybrid event launching the newest report in the Eurasia Center’s pathbreaking Russia Tomorrow series on Moscow’s cyber warfare capabilities and lessons learned from their execution in Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Putin’s address on May 18 was meant to instill fear in Europeans and the U.S. as they met in Rome to discuss Ukraine, its defence, and the steps to reach a ceasefire. Putin took advantage of the moment to threaten the West yet again.
“Do you want France to go to war with Russia? But that's what will happen. European countries will automatically be drawn into a military conflict with Russia. Do you want to go to war with Russia? You ask your readers, viewers, users of Internet resources. Do you want to?”
May 15—The Lavrov narrative in this clip compliments Putin’s message: Europe is mobilizing against Russia, with Ukraine serving as an invaluable instrument.
Russia reportedly failed to launch its RS-24 Yars ICBM during a planned test on May 19. No footage or confirmation has surfaced—suggesting the launch near Nizhny Tagil may have been aborted or failed mid-flight.
Sony has started blocking PlayStation Network accounts for Russians who registered them in Turkey, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine to bypass sanctions, iXBT.games reports . The wave of blockings took place from May 8 to May 13. Both accounts with and without a PlayStation Plus subscription were banned . Because of this, many lost access to their games and services, and in some cases, the consoles themselves were blocked. “Sony does not disclose the reasons for the blocking, they also refuse refund requests and generally do not make contact,” users note. At the same time, according to the PlayStation Hub community, accounts created before May 7 continue to work, regardless of the region.
Former Director of Binance Crypto Exchange in the CIS Arrested in Moscow. The Zamoskvoretsky Court of Moscow has sent Vladimir Smerkis, former director of the Binance crypto exchange in the CIS and co-founder of the Blum crypto game, to a pre-trial detention facility. The details of the case are not disclosed. According to Mash, it may be related to Smerkis's previous projects, on which clients lost at least $15 million. It is alleged that the entrepreneur deceived investors in the investment fund The Token Fond, which he created in 2017.
Mo—translation: the Kremlin decided to put someone else at the helm of the Binance Crypto Exchange.
The Lund University report provides detailed data on Russia's digital warfare infrastructure based on leaked documents from the notorious Social Design Agency (SDA), which works closely with the Kremlin. The report reveals the most sophisticated and large-scale information warfare operation since 2016: a €600 million-a-year campaign targeting Ukraine, the EU and the US.
Between January 2023 and April 2024, the SDA Center produces:
139,293 units of content;
10.29 billion global audience touchpoints;
57 million automatic and live comments;
1.6 million phone calls directed to Ukrainian subscribers.
SDA operates as a hybrid between a digital advertising agency and a military psychological operations unit, its campaigns crafted with marketing sophistication and espionage precision. SDA does not act independently, but coordinates its actions with other structures, such as "Dialogue" and "Structure", all within the propaganda network managed by Sergei Kiriyenko, which costs 600 million euros per year. Technical support is outsourced to companies such as Brand Analytics (social media monitoring) and Fasttrack/Masterbot (automation tools).
The SDA strategy is built around 3 pillars:
Content Factory—a massive, industrial system for producing articles, memes, videos and deepfakes, including augmented reality content.
Delivery Network—A coordinated system involving armies of bots, targeted ads, social media “sleeper groups” and cloned websites.
Psychological warfare - with an index for tracking emotional reactions in order to adapt and enhance the psychological impact.
The main objectives include:
Support for far-right entities such as AfD (Germany) and National Union (France);
Undermining the morale and leadership of the Ukrainian army;
Influence on Republican voters in the US and the 2024 elections;
Shaping narratives before the European Parliament elections.
Techniques:
localized and hyperlocalized messages (e.g. specific German regions);
Demographic segmentation (e.g. Russian diaspora, minorities);
Specific strategies for the TikTok, Telegram, Facebook platforms;
Real-world activation (protests, petitions, graffiti).
China’s new propaganda campaign to display combat potential and intimidate the United States. The video is being disseminated across Chinese proxy accounts on social media. The majority of China’s propaganda focuses on its technological feats, and natural beauty as well as cultural strengths. They’re trying to push the China Dream narrative. The video is AI-generated.
China’s first aerial mothership, Jiutian SS-UAV, is scheduled for its maiden flight in June. It can cruise at 15,000m high carrying over 100 small drones or 1,000 kg of missiles, with a range of 7,000km. Don’t worry, China’s military is peace-oriented from the start. We grow stronger to deter aggression, unlike the US, always attacking other nations.
The Assembly: How I Accidentally Became Part of China’s PR Campaign
By August, the four of us were among 70 students en route to China for the eight-day tour. Most of us had no idea what to expect. Upon landing, we were met by our tour guide, Frank—and a camera crew. Like others on the trip, I would soon be hounded by Chinese TV crews.
China has had strained relationships with several U.S. administrations, but student exchange programs have sometimes been a symbolic effort to open up the country. Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “50,000 initiative” seeks to bring that number of young Americans to his country by 2028. An article in Yibiao Magazine, a U.S. publication that focuses on human rights in China, said that at least five American student groups visited the country in January 2024, including students from Columbia University, table-tennis players from Virginia, and high school students from Iowa. The article said the motive for the group visits was to give students a positive view of the country.
Evan Osborne, an economics professor at Wright State University who co-wrote the article, told me, “People who are there are there to serve the interest of the Communist party—not willingly, or even knowingly, necessarily, but that’s why they are there.”
“There’s no genuine cultural exchange,” said Jeanette Tong, the other co-writer, who works at Citizen Power Initiatives for China, a pro-democracy group. “Everything has an agenda behind it.”
She said university students are seen as a good fit for such promotional tours: young, influenceable subjects, with deep pockets to fund these kinds of trips. Governments that host such exchanges are aiming for what she referred to as the “pebble effect.” One student comes back from their trip with a positive impression of the country and tells 10 friends. Each one tells 10 more. The impact is exponential.
Viktor Orbán’s alleged spies in Ukraine raised eyebrows—but the real worry is his decade-long meddling in the Balkans, backing destabilizing actors with cash, weapons and special police forces.
Thousands protest in Hungary against Russia-style 'foreign agent' bill.
Mass protests against the adoption of a law similar to the Russian one on "foreign agents" have begun in Hungary. On Sunday, May 18, about 10,000 people came out to rally in Budapest. They filled Lajos Kossuth Square in front of the parliament and chanted "We have had enough!" The demonstrators waved Hungarian and EU flags, and one of the posters read: "I want to live in a free Hungary, not in a dictatorship," AFP reports.
The bill, entitled “On Transparency in Public Life,” which would allow the government to restrict the work of the media and non-governmental organizations under the pretext of protecting the country’s sovereignty, was introduced to parliament by a representative of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party. The initiative proposes that the government would be able to blacklist organizations that receive foreign funding “for influencing public life,” closely monitor them, and demand that they be shut down. Moreover, such organizations would be prohibited from receiving donations in the form of 1% of the income tax that Hungarian citizens can use for social projects that are important to them. This source of funding is extremely important for non-profit organizations in the country.
In Europe
EU-UK deal expected today at first post-Brexit summit
Three texts are due to be signed later by Keir Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president António Costa.
The three documents are: 1) a security and defence agreement; 2) a joint statement setting out common views on global challenges, such as the war in Ukraine; and 3) a common understanding paper – the key text pointing the way to further agreements including a youth mobility deal and veterinary agreement.
An EU official said:
We have entered a new chapter in our relations with [the] UK – a neighbour, an ally and a global partner.
The negotiation process in the run-up to this summit went until the last minute. But negotiations took place always in good faith on both sides, and the result is very positive for both.
Mo: The British press is unrelenting: headlines in the Daily Express and the Daily Mail decried the loss of British sovereignty (“rule takers”). Leavers took to the airwaves early on Monday morning radio programmes rehashing the old Brexit arguments that being in any relationship with the EU would lead to a betrayal of the British public. They’re wrong. According to YouGov polling published in January, Britons now believe that leaving the EU was a mistake by almost two to one, or rather, only 30% still think leaving the EU was the right thing to do. Close to 50% want a working relationship with the EU, something they had been promised during the Brexit campaign.
Leader of the Tory Party, Kemi Badenoch, says she set five tests for Labour’s reset negotiation with the EU, and went on to say that Starmer has failed the tests. What else is the Tory leader supposed to say? They had years to get this over the line and didn’t deliver.
Kemi Badenoch’s five tests were that the deal should involve: “1) no backsliding on free movement or compulsory asylum transfers; 2) no new money paid to the EU; 3) no reduction in our fishing rights; 4) no rule taking, dynamic alignment or European Court jurisdiction; and 5) no compromise on the primacy of NATO as the cornerstone of European security.”
Will it mean that the UK will have to make compromises? Yes. It’s also true that the EU acts as a bloc, and has more economic heft than the EU. It’s also true that British businesses and the economy in general will benefit from the savings on the red tape, and increased market potential.
Tina McKenzie, policy chair of the Federation of Small Businesses, said while the deal “does not solve every challenge overnight”, it set a “very welcome new tone”. She said in a statement:
This agreement marks genuine progress by untangling the rules for small exporters of plant and animal products. If British goods can reach European markets with fewer setbacks, that marks real progress.
The CBI said in a statement the alignment on sanitary and phytosantiary (SPS) rules was “a significant win for business”.
The Food and Drink Federation was also pleased by the announcement of a much closer UK-EU trading relationship, saying it will have “clear benefits for consumers and businesses”.
And Kate Nicholls, chief executive of UKHospitality, the trade body for the hospitality industry, said the agreement was “positive news” for hospitality businesses and consumers. She welcomed in particular the commitment to co-operate further on a youth experience scheme.
Dhara Vyas, chief executive of Energy UK, which represents the industry, said in a statement: This agreement will remove barriers to growth, lowering energy prices, and clearing the way for a shared future powered by clean energy.
EU members have agreed in principle on a €150 billion fund (SAFE) to boost Europe's defense. The cash will be raised through joint borrowing and loaned to EU countries and others like Ukraine for defense projects and strengthening the arms industry.
The EU is set to propose to the G7 a reduction of the current $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil to $50. This move, part of the EU's 18th sanctions package, aims to further limit Russia's oil revenues. The proposal will be discussed among G7 finance ministers this week.
Romania Elections: Celebrations are slowly starting in Bucharest for Nicușor Dan who pulled ahead of George Simion in the presidential election.
The centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicuşor Dan, is set to win Romania’s pivotal presidential election with 99% of votes counted, according to official figures showing the pro-EU independent eight points clear of his far-right rival, George Simion.
The figures from Romania’s central election authority showed Dan, who had cast the second round vote as a battle between “a pro-western and an anti-western Romania”, on 54.2%, while Simion, a self-professed Trump admirer, had 45.8%.
Simion’s supporters had received messages on Sunday evening telling them to protest “if the fraud continues” and calling for a “national protest” on Monday “if they try to steal the victory of the Romanian people”.
This is a map showing the Romanian vote abroad. Green: Dan; Yellow: Simion
Reuters—Portugal Elections: Portugal's ruling centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) won a snap parliamentary election on Sunday but again fell short of the majority needed to end a long period of instability as the far-right Chega gained a record share of the vote.
Prime Minister Luis Montenegro said the election result was a vote of confidence in his party, but with votes from abroad still to be counted Chega could supplant the centre-left Socialists as the main opposition party, ending almost 40 years of dominance by the country's two major parties. Luís Montenegro promised supporters to "stimulate investment" and to "guarantee prosperity and social justice".
Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos announced his resignation after his party finished in second, and lost so many seats it ended up neck-and-neck with far-right Chega - a relatively newcomer.
The Socialists could even slip behind Chega if results from voters abroad, which take a few days to come in, mirror those in last year's election, when two out of the four seats went to Chega, and one to the Socialists.
Elections Poland—BBC News: Warsaw's liberal mayor Rafal Trzaskowski won a narrow victory in Poland's presidential election, according to an exit poll, but a second-round run-off with conservative historian Karol Nawrocki will be required to decide the country's next president.
The official results in Poland:
Rafał Trzaskowski 31.36%
Karol Nawrocki 29.54%Sławomir Mentzen 14.8%
Grzegorz Braun 6.34%
Szymon Hołownia 4.99%
Adrian Zandberg 4.86%
Magdalena Biejat 4.23%
Krzysztof Stanowski 1.24%
Joanna Senyszyn 1.09%
Marek Jakubiak 0.77%
Artur Bartoszewicz 0.49%
Maciej Maciak 0.19%
Marek Woch 0.09%
The response from the official France Diplomacy account on ‘X’:
(Context: the former owner of Telegram, Pavel Durov, intimated that France was interfering in the Romanian presidential election, which was held on Sunday. Durov stated that France had asked him to block certain accounts on Telegram. Durov was trying to deflect from the fact that the Romanian government had detected Russian interference in the vote process.)
Completely unfounded allegations are circulating on Telegram and Twitter regarding alleged French interference in the Romanian presidential election.
France categorically rejects these allegations and calls on everyone to exercise responsibility and respect for Romanian democracy.
The first round of the Romanian presidential elections last December was sovereignly annulled by the competent Romanian authorities following very real digital and financial interference from actors linked to Russia.
Subsequent investigations by Romanian authorities and the European Commission later confirmed the seriousness of these interferences, including regarding the manipulation of the TikTok algorithm.
In this context, the recent accusations against France are merely a diversionary maneuver from the real threats of interference targeting Romania. France calls on all Romanian political actors to exercise responsibility and defend democracy.
As a partner and friend, we recall that France has stood by Romania for its accession to the European Union, its reforms, its entry into Schengen, and its progress. For its security as well, for example, by sending our soldiers five days after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Lying about France, insulting it, is breaking this history.
In Other News
Republicans who control the House of Representatives will try to nudge Trump's sweeping tax bill toward passage this week, despite a running battle over spending cuts and tax breaks that threatens to shatter their fragile majority.
Former President Joe Biden has been diagnosed with an "aggressive form" of prostate cancer that has spread to his bones, his office said in a statement. Biden’s office said yesterday that the condition can be managed effectively. Find out more about Biden’s diagnosis here.
Finance leaders from the G7 democracies will strive for a show of unity when they meet this week on topics other than US tariffs, including economic security, Ukraine and artificial intelligence cooperation.
Fox Business: FBI Director Kash Patel says FBI leaving longtime headquarters. FBI Director Kash Patel announced plans to relocate 1,500 agents from the J. Edgar Hoover Building, aiming to decentralize operations and enhance workforce distribution across the country.
Bloomberg: EGA to Build US Aluminum Plant Touted by Trump Next Year. Emirates Global Aluminium will begin construction on a $4 billion aluminum smelter in Oklahoma in 2026, aiming to produce 600,000 tons annually, as Trump secures major Gulf-state investments to bypass tariffs.
President Trump’s rant against Walmart. His advisors must be getting calls for meetings. He’s also saying that Walmart should introduce price controls, which is something suggested by left-leaning governments in Europe as well as Russia and China. I’m sure he doesn’t see it this way.
US State Department: Rewards for Justice – Reward Offer for Information on Hizballah Financial Networks in the Tri-Border Area
The U.S. Department of State’s Rewards for Justice (RFJ) program, which is administered by the Diplomatic Security Service, has a standing reward offer of up to $10 million for information leading to the disruption of the financial mechanisms of the terrorist organization Hizballah. Under this reward offer, RFJ is requesting information on Hizballah Financial Networks in the Tri-Border Area (TBA) of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay.
In the TBA, Hizballah financiers and facilitators generate revenue for the terrorist organization through illicit activities such as money laundering; narcotics trafficking; charcoal and oil smuggling; illicit diamond trade; smuggling of items including bulk cash, cigarettes, and luxury goods; document forgery; and the counterfeiting of U.S. dollars. They also generate revenue from commercial activities across Latin America, including construction, import and export of goods, and real estate sales.
FBI chief, Kash Patel, announced that the agency would be leaving its historic digs: "I didn't know that I was going to do this, but I'm gonna announce it on your show anyway. This FBI is leaving the Hoover building, because this building is unsafe for our workforce." Note that renovating it seems out of the question.