May 21: E-Stories
RuAttacksUA CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies A&P UADef Matviychuk Raufoglu UKDef ISW Noel Borodin Kluge Rosenberg SatNightLive Lautman Yellen Nuland Darth Zurabishvili Buziazhvili TimesRad LenMer
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Protest in Brussels, Belgium, at the EU Parliament: the Georgian people have been asking Western countries to enstate sanctions and travel bans against any parliamentarian that has signed the Foreign Agents’ Bill. Hidden in the bill is an article which pertains to restricting the media. Present at the protest were Ukrainians and Chechens, and in Budapest, the Circassians also held a protest with the same message.
Alex Raufoglu: The U.S. Helsinki Commission will be plans to introduce ‘Georgia Sanctions’ legislation in the coming days, potentially targeting those responsible for the foreign-agents legislation (aka russian law) and the broader assault on democracy.
The bill will require the Secretary of State to report to Congress on improper political influence, kleptocracy, elite corruption, sanctions evasion and Russian intelligence assets within Georgia.
The bill also offers opportunities for Georgia to strengthen its trade, defense and cultural ties with the U.S. if it reverses course. This could be a defining moment for Georgia’s democratic future as its citizens try to stop a tool of authoritarian control.
May 19: Human chain in Tbilisi against Russian law on Foreign Influence. In August 1990, the Baltic states formed a human chain that stretched from Estonia to Latvia to express their desire for independence from the Soviet Union. Watching these images reminded me of the footage from that summer.
Stories we’re following…
Russian forces attack 13 communities in Sumy Oblast, injuring 1. Russian forces struck 13 communities in Ukraine's northeastern Sumy Oblast in 43 separate attacks throughout the day, injuring one person, the regional administration reported on May 19. At least 236 explosions were recorded.
Michael MacKay: the Russians launched a “double tap” airstrike on a recreational centre in Cherkas’ka Lozova because the United States and Germany shield their bases in the Russian Federation. Six people were killed and 28 more were injured.
We have seen double taps before in Mariupol, the Krasnador train station strike, and in other communities in Ukraine.
Combat Situation Update
Zelensky: Ukraine secures stronger positions in Kharkiv Oblast amid Russia's offensive. Zelensky also said that Ukraine successfully repels Russian assaults in Donetsk Oblast, including the area near the city of Chasiv Yar, which became one of the main strategic targets.
"Russia is amassing and redeploying forces to the Sumy border area. The task is similar to the operations in Kharkiv: stretch the Ukrainian line and force the AFU to redeploy reserve units from elsewhere. The overall situation at the front is quite complicated, and it will not get any easier in the near future," Maksym Zhorin, Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade reports.
ISW: Russian forces recently made confirmed advances within Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) and continued offensive operations in the area on May 19.
The Russian military has taken full control of the village of Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region of Ukraine and has taken up better positions there, Russia’s defence ministry said. The ministry said in a statement its forces had also been involved in fierce clashes in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region near Vovchansk, Starytsia and Hlyboke where it said they had repelled two counterattacks.
"Vovchansk is being destroyed. It is dangerous to stay here. There is constant shelling. A lot of stray dogs are running around. But we are here, we are working and we will win," a police officer reports from Vovchansk.
The central hospital in Vovchansk, which is occupied by Russian forces, exploded. Reportedly dozens of Russian soldiers were inside. The building got hit guided bombs, possibly JDAM/GLSDB. At 0:18 seconds you can see one bomb hitting the building.
Media: SBU drones strike airbase, oil refinery in Russia. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in conjunction with the country's new Unmanned Systems Forces, launched a drone attack on Russia's Kushchevskaya military airbase and Slavyansk oil refinery plant overnight, Ukrainska Pravda reported on May 19.
A Ukrainian rocket attack targeted a Russian military base in occupied Luhansk’s suburb of Yuvileine on Monday, according to regional governor Artem Lysohor. According to Lysohor, Luhansk’s residents said Russian forces had set up a military camp near civilian buildings in the village.
Bloomberg: Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure earlier this year disrupted 14% of the country’s oil refining capacity and drove up domestic fuel prices, but had minimal impact on electricity output.
Ukraine’s Navy says it destroyed Russian sea minesweeper Kovrovets overnight. The report refutes Moscow’s earlier claims of having repelled all strikes on occupied Crimea overnight.
Russian channels report that today an ATACMS missile attack was reportedly carried out on Project 22800 Karakurt class “Tsiklon” in the port of Sevastopol. As a result of the strike, the ship reportedly sunk and 6 servicemen were killed and 11 more were injured.
On May 19, Ukraine carried out massive strikes against Russian installations in occupied Crimea. The Black Sea strategy is to deny Russia the use of this peninsula and get them to move their forces east. The farther they go to seek refuge, the farther their missiles have to go and their supply lines are stretched. The Russians are devising an alternative route, however, the control over the Black Sea is something that Russia will fight to keep for geo-strategic and historical reasons. The battle for the Black Sea is a key strategic goal for Ukraine and its future security.
The Washington Post: “Ukraine’s 125th Territorial Defense Brigade…used reconnaissance drones to monitor, daily, how Moscow was steadily building up forces for a possible attack. But the morning it happened, May 10, the brigade lost all its video feeds due to Russian electronic jamming. Its Starlink devices…failed”
Behind the Lines
In German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD party, voices expressing support for Western troops to take part in the defense against Russian airstrikes in Ukraine.
"In the current military situation, I consider it necessary and responsible to deploy German anti-aircraft missile forces on NATO territory on the border with Ukraine in order to protect the airspace over Western Ukraine - for example, with the help of Patriot systems," SPD defense expert Joe Weingarten said in an interview.
Austrian construction company owner Otto Hirsch is touring occupied Luhansk with material aid, pleasing Russian diplomats and propagandists. Hirsch does not hide his humanitarian activities and speaks warmly of Russia. He and his wife have been making a significant contribution to the reconstruction of infrastructure in Donbass since 2015.
Polish PM: Warsaw to spend $2.5 billion to secure Russia, Belarus border. Poland plans to invest 10 billion zlotys ($2.55 billion) in strengthening its borders with Russia and Belarus to deter potential aggression, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on May 18, according to Bloomberg.
The chairman of the French Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Assembly demands that France change its doctrine, and no longer prohibits Ukraine from striking inside Russian territory.
"This change in doctrine is perfectly legitimate insofar as it puts an end to the unacceptable asymmetry between the situation of the aggressor and that of the aggressed. In the name of what can we deny the Ukrainians the right to respond blow for blow to the attacks of which they are victims?" he emphasized.
Maksym Borodin: Brazenly and on camera, the Russians kidnap orphans from the occupied territories of Ukraine and say that it is "for their good." Just imagine if any other country occupied a part of Russia and took out children from there. What would be the reaction of Russia?
As discussed here in E-Stories, Russia will have a labour issue; actually, it’s been dealing with this issue for quite some time. It is our assessment that one of the goals of the Kremlin’s nationalisation of foreign and state companies is to procure labour throught them. UK Defence Intelligence has now raised the issue of Russia’s labour shortage.
Meanwhile in Russia
Gazprom shares collapsed on the Moscow Exchange on Monday evening after it became known that the company would not pay dividends based on operating results in 2023.
Gazprom's quotes sank by 6% and fell to 145.03 rubles - the lowest since October 2023. Against the backdrop of the decision of the Russian government, the largest shareholder of the gas monopoly, to prepare a directive on the refusal of payments, Gazprom’s capitalization decreased by 144 billion rubles, or almost $1.6 billion, in just over an hour.
Gazprom de facto has nothing to pay dividends with: last year, for the first time in 25 years, the company ended with a net loss, and its size - 629 billion rubles - became a record in three decades of its history.
In Russia, basic military training classes have been launched at a Russian Orthodox Church. Students can enroll in “the courses” from the age of 12. The classes are taught by participants in the war with Ukraine and clergy, who give propaganda lectures “on the history of native land & patriotism”. Such actions take place with the blessing of the local archbishop.
Almost half of Russian regions in the first quarter of 2024 faced a drop in local budget revenues, and in four regions it became precipitous.
The leader in the rate of decline in revenues was the Tyumen region. In Russia's key gas production region, local treasury revenues fell by 34.4% after Gazprom was forced to cut production by a quarter and suffered its first annual loss in a quarter century. The Tyumen regional budget received less taxes on profits and property of businesses, indicate the Gaidar Institute.
Another gas region, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, where one of the world's largest Urengoy gas fields is located, recorded a 30.3% drop in revenues. The problem, as in the Tyumen region, was the lack of income tax.
Revenues to the budget of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) decreased by 33.9%: personal income tax collections, as well as the mineral extraction tax (MET) on natural diamonds, dropped. The Alrosa State Corporation, which is one-third owned by the government of the republic, at the end of last year reported a drop in profit by 15%, revenue by 9%, and also admitted problems with sales. Against the backdrop of sanctions, Alrosa’s reserves of unsold diamonds increased 1.6 times, and in order to support the company, the state will begin to buy precious stones from it for the first time since 2009.
Reuters: Xi Jinping isn’t known for effusive warmth, but the Chinese president hugged Putin twice at their meeting in Beijing. When they weren’t embracing, they were pledging a fresh partnership and casting the U.S. as a chaos-sowing Cold War hegemon. They also discussed a plan to ship gas from Russia to China, maybe even oil, an idea that was hatched in 2018, but which has taken on more significance now that its gas exports to Europe have collapsed and sanctions are rife.
The Insider—Russian intelligence agencies recruiting scientists and students:
Following a series of high-profile failures and mass expulsions of uniformed “diplomats,” Russian intelligence has turned to more subtle methods, including leveraging scientific organizations with international ties. One such espionage “front” is the National Research Institute for the Development of Communications (NIIRK), which is led by ex-SVR and FSB officers. In Europe and neighboring countries, the institute organizes numerous conferences and internships. Here, intelligence officers and pro-Kremlin propagandists, under the pretense of promoting good neighborly relations, spread the notion that the West is an enemy, and that prosperity lies in friendship with Russia. The main targets are promising students and young scientists, who are ultimately groomed for espionage activities.
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC Moscow: We hear a lot about Russia and China’s ‘no limits partnership.’ But judging from today’s Russian papers, limits exist. Here’s what the Russian press is saying about Putin’s visit to China.
At the UN on May 20, China accused the US of prolonging hostilities in Ukraine by supplying "deadly weapons". The deputy representative of the People's Republic of China stated this at the meeting of the UN Security Council dedicated to the supply of weapons to Ukraine. In response, the US emphasized that it will supply weapons to Ukraine until Russia withdraws its troops.
Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, held a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana, the Russian state news Tass agency reported on Monday. It said the ministers were meeting to discuss the implementation of Russian-Chinese agreements reached during Vladimir Putin’s state visit to China last week, and events in Iran, whose president and foreign minister were killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday.
Saturday Night Live: XIEMU. Don't worry about it! I have tried to wean my daughter off of ordering clothing from Shein, and thankfully she doesn’t order from Temu, which is the target of the Sat Night crew. Shein admitted there were labour abuses at its suppliers factories in 2022, after a Channel 4 investigation revealed that some Chinese workers making its clothes were paid as little as 3p per garment while working 18-hour days.
Allied Support
Ramstein summit held on May 20. The Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) occurred on May 20.
US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has said Russian forces will try to make further advances in the “weeks ahead” and try to carve out a “buffer zone” along the Ukrainian border.
“This is a hard and dangerous fight but Ukraine’s defenders are showing extraordinary courage and skill,” Austin said as he delivered the opening remarks at the 22nd Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group.
“And they are putting the capabilities that this contact group has provided to good use.”
Austin added that Putin’s new offensive in Kharkiv has added to the urgency of the west’s support for Ukraine, saying the US is delivering much needed assistance to Kyiv.
Austin said the US will continue to approve “substantial” security assistance packages to Ukraine, meaning a “steady flow” of aid will be given to Kyiv “week after week”.
On Tuesday, the US treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, will call Europe and the US to stand together against Russian aggression, including finding a way forward to unlock the value of frozen Russian sovereign assets to aid Ukraine. Excerpts of Yellen’s planned speech have been released:
And let me be clear: It is also critical for the security of the American and European people.
If we stand by as dictators violate territorial integrity and flout the international rules-based order, they have no reason to stop at their initial targets. They will keep going.
Nato allies should not fear that sending troops to Ukraine to train its soldiers would risk dragging the military alliance into war with Russia, Estonia’s prime minister Kaja Kalas said.
"There are countries who are training soldiers on the ground already, and they did so at their own risk. If training personnel were attacked by Russian forces it would not automatically trigger Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence clause," she added.
Spain will transfer a second batch of Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine. They will arrive at the end of June, along with ammunition of various types.
UK defense secretary calls Germany to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles. U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps on May 19 urged Berlin and other allies to send long-range missiles to Ukraine and to allow Kyiv to hit facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea.
Victoria Nuland says White House needs to change policy and give Ukraine “more help in hitting Russian bases.”
Ukraine to receive 100 missiles from UK in May, UK defense secretary says. London also sent Kyiv more than 30 pallets of parts, including anti-mine equipment, over a million rounds of small arms ammunition, 20 Viking armored amphibious vehicles, and over 4,000 items of military clothing.
Austria will allocate €5 million to Ukraine. It will be aimed at restoring Ukraine's energy infrastructure. "As a neutral country, Austria also has an obligation to stand on the side of humanity in this war," said Leonore Gewessler, Minister for Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology.
The “Basic” tankie. Russia has never invaded anyone ever. Russia become the world’s biggest country by peacefully defending itself in other people’s countries.
The “Russia was provoked tankie”. NATO caused this war. It did this by being seen as a better option to Russia’s neighbors than Russia is and then by actually being a better option to Russia’s neighbors than Russia is.
The “no to war no to nato” tankie. Opposes all forms of western imperialism, such as countries freely joining NATO. Appeases all forms of Russian imperialism, such as cities being flattened as they join Russia.
The “anti imperialist” tankie. In the name of anti imperialism, Russia must be given a veto over the foreign policy of its neighbors and control who their head of state is.
The “short skirt tankie”. Ukraine deserves to be invaded cos it was warned about flirting with other countries.
The “what about” tankie. Thinks US doing something is wrong except if Russia does it when it’s right.
The “academic tankie”. Pretends it is explaining Russia but is actually excusing it. Is unaware it sounds a lot like Kissinger.
The “anti fascist” tankie. Supports a homophobic, sexist, frequently antisemitic regime that likes and funds fascists.
The “fascist” tankie. Supports a homophobic, sexist, frequently antisemitic regime that likes and funds fascists.
The “traditional values” tankie. Likes Russia cos we represent traditional values like legalised wife beating and mass kidnap of children.
The “pro Hamas” tankie. Says you can’t go around grabbing pieces of land just cos your ancestors used to live there.
The “Pro business” tankie. Thinks being able to change international borders by force and the dismantling of the international rules based order is a good for long term economic growth.
The “defence contractors want this war” tankie. Thinks Russian defence contractors hope the war stops cos they’re ethical. Usually used to think the war wouldn’t happen in the first place.
The “this is a proxy war” tankie. Doesn’t know/care that North Korea and Iran are waging a proxy war against the USA to the last Russian
The “Ukrainians are forced to fight” tankie. Thinks as soon as the west stops arming Ukraine they and Russians will link arms and live happily ever after.
The “let’s respect Russia” tankie. Thinks we can respect Russia and make the problem go away. Doesn’t care that this means treating Russia’s neighbors with disrespect. Cannot square this circle. Wears flannel a lot.
The “this will cause nuclear war” tankie. Thinks Russia is not killing civilians, attacking civilian infra and is really nice. Also thinks Russia will kill every living thing on the planet if provoked. Aka Schrödinger’s tankie.
The “let’s negotiate” tankie. This deal, finally, is actually the one Russia will actually stick too. Hasn’t noticed that Russian said it won’t negotiate
The “appeasement tankie”. History teaches us this always works. Used to think the idea of the war was a hoax.
The “MAGA tankie”. Is genuine US patriot 2nd amendment protect south border won’t vote for Iosef Bidenovich. Oddly interested in Ruble’s exchange rate to $.
The “Brooklyn basement tankie”. Looks like less handsome Paul Giamatti. Knows everything. Has never been correct about anything. Doesn’t own soap.
The “Irish” tankie. Looks at Ukraine. Sees its large, nuclear-armed eastern neighbor that has violent, imperialist, brutal history of conquest and cultural oppression against it and decides “No parallels here, those are the good guys in this".
The “tech/crypto bro” tankie. Thinks western weapons won’t make any difference, sending them will also cause nuclear war and any strike on Crimea will lead to a holocaust. Actually thinks female Z head influencers may sleep with him.
The “we mustn’t escalate” tankie. Thinks west arming Ukraine is bad. North Korea arming Russia is ok. Will one day wonder where China got the idea invading Taiwan would be consequence free.
The “blogger” tankie. Granny spoke Russian to it once a week till it was 9. Read 2 chapters of War and Peace. Has deleted a lot of tweets made between Dec 21 and Feb 22.
The “CIA coup” tankie. Thinks Eastern Europeans can’t protest broken election promises themselves without American help while usually claiming to be anti racist. Believes one woman handing out biscuits is proof of this CIA plot.
The “genocide in the Donbas” tankie. We all want to see this one debate this point with Prigozhin who said it’s bullshit but sadly Prigozhin found out what air defense doing so we can’t.
The “Russia is fighting all of NATO” tankie. NATO is amazing and the only reason hasn’t won. NATO is also shit cos it lost to goat herders on technicals in Afghanistan.
The “NATO is an aggressive alliance” tankie. Russia had to invade to prevent NATO, which lacks the ammunition to invade Russia, from invading Russia even though it can’t.
The “pro Hamas tankie 2.0”. Says you have to let a nuclear power take over territory and remove the inhabitants to prevent nuclear war. Gets very angry, overloads and then reboots as the “what about tankie” when told about the irony of this.
Civil-GE: President Salome Zurabishvili said she vetoed the Foreign Agents’ law on May 18.
She said this law “by its essence ad spirit it’s Russian law which contradicts our Constitution and all European standard, and thus represents and obstacle to our European path.
“This veto is legally substantiated and will be submitted to Parliament today,” the President said.
She added: “This law cannot be improved and embellished, and it’s a very simple veto: this law has to be taken back.”
In an open letter the Trans-European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA), more than 120 European academics call on European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel, and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell to take concrete measures amid the developments around the foreign agents law “before it is too late.”
In particular, they recommend that EU leaders visit Tbilisi and reaffirm their support for the people who continue to protest against the law; send a clear message to the Georgian government that a large-scale pre-election observation mission will be organized in the country; suspend all direct budgetary support to Georgia and funding of government-led projects and instead explore other ways to support Georgia’s civil society; and propose targeted sanctions and travel bans against the leadership of Georgia’s ruling party.
A message of support from Oleksandra Matviychuk about Georgia: We need to support each other in this fight. Because only spreading freedom makes our world safer. Your fight is our fight.
CNN: ICC seeks arrest warrants for Hamas and Israeli leaders
The International Criminal Court is seeking arrest warrants for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity over the October 7 attacks on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the court’s chief prosecutor Karim Khan told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour in an exclusive interview on Monday.
Khan said the ICC is also seeking warrants for Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as two other top Hamas leaders — Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri, the leader of the Al Qassem Brigades and better known as Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader.
The warrants against the Israeli politicians mark the first time the ICC has targeted the top leader of a close ally of the United States. The decision puts Netanyahu in the company of the Russian President Vladimir Putin, for who the ICC issued an arrest warrant over Moscow’s war on Ukraine.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner and potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash in mountainous terrain near the Azerbaijan border.
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the 60-year-old foreign minister of the Islamic Republic who died in the helicopter crash alongside President Raisi, spent the last two decades as a diplomat and foreign policy advisor to senior officials of the regime.
Iran has declared five days of public mourning. The crash happened close to Iran's border with Azerbaijan, where Raisi had been meeting President Ilham Aliyev.
Putin has held a phone call with Iran’s interim president Mohammad Mokhber, with the two leaders declaring their “mutual intention to further strengthen Russian-Iranian interaction”, the Kremlin said. He will participate in the funeral ceremony of Iranian president Raisi the day after tomorrow.
CNN: The prosecution rested its case against Donald Trump with Michael Cohen wrapping up testimony. The defense is now calling witnesses. Mr. Cohen made the hush-money payment that underpins the case, and the defense targeted his credibility.
Reuters: Donald Trump’s lawyers at his New York criminal trial portrayed Michael Cohen as a liar and a Trump-hater who acted alone to pay off Stormy Daniels. Not so fast, legal experts say. They maintain that prosecutors largely backed up his testimony with hard evidence.
Reuters: Trump and Joe Biden agreed to face off in two debates, one hosted by CNN on June 27, the other by ABC on Sept. 10. Trump allies are laying the groundwork to contest a potential loss in November, and more foreign actors are working to influence this year’s elections, U.S. officials said.
Times Radio: The trial of nine suspects accused of plotting to overthrow the German government has begun in Stuttgart. The leaders of the far-right group is a 72-year-old self-styled aristocrat and a former AfD MP who was found with a bullet proof vest and night vision goggles. So who exactly are these people? And could the AfD's likely success in the upcoming European elections pose a real threat to German democracy?
This case promises to be wild. Please re-read this article from the Guardian that explains the basics and provides a little detail on the absolute craziness of this plot.
Please watch this panel at the Lennart Meri Conference, which was held from May 16-18 in Tallinn, Estonia. The exchanges were honest and informative.
Where to begin with all this insanity?
Horrified by the word salad spouted forth by that woman trying to say how perfectly honest and well meaning it is for them to accept these orphans. The poor children looked terrified and uncertain. This is just shameful.
Thanks for convincing your daughter not to buy Shein - it's all fast fashion crap (that could have health implications). You could try and really get her on board by quoting Vivienne Westwood: "Buy less. Choose well. Make it last". :) That's so hard to do these days and I know especially for teens (I have a 9 year old daughter and hoping to have some sway over her choices with my love of second hand clothes :) Naive at best?
I noticed Timothy Snyder was at the Estonia panel. Do you follow his Substack?
Adding that German story podcast episode to my list. Had to look up what a Tankie was. Darth Putin would be one of the only reasons I would ever get on Twitter aka X :)