May 21: Sunday Stories
Day 452: Kharkiv Mariupol Belarus Dzharylhach St Pete's Zapo Kakhovka Zhilischnik Hungary Kazakhstan Vucic Assad FighterCoalition radars UK Leica China G7 A&Ps Nexta UKDef Rutte Davis Lavrov
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
The cities of Bakhmut and Marinka, in Donetsk Oblast, remain at the epicentre of hostilities. There are 12 active fronts along the line of contact. On the Bakhmut front, the Russian army attempted to advance on Bila Hora; on the Avdiivka front, the Russians advanced towards Novokalynove. In both cases, the Russian offensive operations were unsuccessful, as reported by General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 20 May
Russian forces conducted 3 missile strikes and 56 airstrikes, and deployed multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) to conduct more than 40 attacks, damaging civilian infrastructure.
Russian troops shelled 21 settlements in the Kharkiv region on May 20. This was announced by the head of the regional administration Oleg Sinegubov. The Kherson regional prosecutor's office reports that Russian troops shelled the city of Berislav at night. One of the shells hit a private house, a man and a woman died under the rubble.
'Powerful' explosions reported in Russian-occupied Mariupol. Three "powerful explosions" occurred in the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol in the evening of May 19, the exiled Mariupol City Council reported on Telegram. At 6am on May 20, explosions were reported in Mariupol once again. Russian anti-missile defence was active.
ISW: Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut likely eliminated threat of Russian encirclement. Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast in recent days have very likely eliminated the possibility of Russian encirclement in the area, even as Russia concentrates its reserves to the fight around the city, the Institute of the Study of War said in its latest update.
Defensive fortifications appeared on the border between Belarus and Ukraine. According to "Belarusian Gayun," "dragon's teeth" - concrete anti-tank gouges - were noticed 10 km from Gomel. In addition, not far from the place where the "dragon's teeth" were built, presumably fortifications are being built, the newspaper notes. At the exit from the village of Kalinino, they noticed special equipment.
Russia has deployed units of two special forces brigades of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the border areas of Kursk Oblast. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in this way, the Russian Federation is trying to consolidate part of the Ukrainian troops in the border areas and disperse them in critical areas of the contact line.
The Russian Federation is attacking Ukraine with missiles that it produced in the first quarter of 2023 - this is evidenced by the fragments of downed missiles, said the deputy chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, Skibitsky.
The Ukraine’s National Resistance Center announced on 19 May that units of the 3rd and 22nd Special Guards Brigades were deployed in the village of Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast of the Russian Federation, to prevent subversive activities of Ukrainian resistance and raise the morale of Russian troops.
National Resistance Center reports that the personal units of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov was recorded in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. "The occupiers transferred the Yug-Akhmat Motorised Rifle Battalion, which is subordinate to Kadyrov, to the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia"
In the occupied Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, the occupiers are intimidating Ukrainians with mobilisation, property seizure and eviction, thus encouraging them to obtain a Russian passport.
To speed up this process, the invaders are conducting demonstrative raids aimed at intimidating the local population with possible mobilisation and seizure of property. In particular, the occupiers conduct door-to-door and house-to-house visits, conduct a census and exert psychological pressure to force people to obtain passports.
Ombudsman: Ukrainians who took Russian passports under pressure will not be punished. Ukraine's authorities will not persecute people from occupied territories who took Russian passports under duress.
The BBC Russian Service drew attention to the announcements about the search for "guards" that were posted by some Moscow State Budgetary Institution "Zhilischnik" engaged in servicing residential buildings. Such vacancies, in particular, were published by Zhilischniki of Kuzminok and the Ryazan region. The "guards" are promised a salary of 170-240 thousand rubles, the status of a combat veteran, benefits, payments for children, and "preservation of the main workplace for two years." At the same time, work experience is not required, but it is indicated that it will be necessary to undergo training “for up to 2 months.”
Prigozhin claimed on Saturday to have full control of Bakhmut, in a video released and published on various Telegram channels. His declaration of triumph is a long rant about how Shoigu and Gerasimov were no help and Wagner mostly did it on their own. He also said that he will be giving the territory over to the regular Russian forces on May 25.
Ukraine’s military: Russia bringing airborne, motorized rifle units to Bakhmut. In addition to Wagner Group mercenaries, Russia is sending airborne and motorized rifle units to Bakhmut, Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Operational Command, reported on May 20. Capturing Bakhmut reportedly remains a top priority for Russia’s military.
Ukraine’s deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar said on Saturday the situation in Bakhmut was critical, with the Ukrainian troops maintaining a defence in the south-western part of the city.
“Heavy fighting in Bakhmut. The situation is critical,” she said on the Telegram messaging app. “As of now, our defenders control some industrial and infrastructure facilities in the area and the private sector.”
Hungary blocking EU sanctions over jailers of Russian dissident Kara-Murza. Hungary is now blocking EU sanctions on those deemed responsible for the jailing of Russian dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza a day after saying it would not support the 11th EU sanctions package against Russia over a bank dispute with Ukraine, EUobserver reported.
Investigation finds Russia evading sanctions through Kazakhstan. Despite Western sanctions intended to prevent the import of drones and other technology to Russia, sensitive electronics are still finding their way to the Russian military through companies recently established by Russians in Kazakhstan, an investigation by the OCCRP, German Der Spiegel, and Russian iStories found.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic spoke about attempts to organize a color revolution in the country. According to him, "special services from the east" warn about such a threat. As reported by RIA Novosti:
“I get data from various services, and our sister services from the East tell us that these are attempts at color revolutions and so on. And I tell them - I don’t know what they are trying, I only know that it’s disgusting to try to abuse the tragedy, the death of children, in order to become bigger, better and smarter for our people than they have ever been,” Vucic said at a rally in Pancevo.
Sullivan: US to join F-16 coalition, train pilots. The U.S. will train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jet fighters and cooperate with its allies to deliver the planes to Ukraine. The F-16 fighter jets, which Ukraine will receive from the allies, will be provided on the condition that they will not be used to attack Russia.
“All of the capabilities that the United States has proven to Ukraine come with the basic proposition that the United States is not enabling or supporting attacks on Russian territory. That will go for the support for the provision of F-16s by any party as well," he noted.
Denmark, Portugal join 'fighter jet' coalition. Denmark will train Ukrainian pilots on U.S.-built F-16 fighter jets and is open to discussions on their possible transfer, Acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said on May 19. Portugal has also agreed to train Ukrainian pilots and mechanics on Western-type combat aircraft, according to Ukraine's Foreign Ministry.
Norway will give Ukraine three radars to detect artillery and up to eight MLRS. “Today we confirm the delivery of long-range artillery and radars. Norway is providing three radars for locating Arthur artillery and up to eight long-range rocket launchers of the MLRS type,” Defense Minister Bjorn Arild Gram said.
The Russian response to the fighter coalition and possible supply of F-16s: Western countries will be running “colossal risks” if they supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, TASS news agency quoted Russian deputy foreign minister Alexander Grushko as saying on Saturday.
The U.K. and Norway signed a security partnership to prevent attacks against undersea infrastructure including gas pipeline and cables. Under the agreement, announced Thursday by the defense ministers of both countries, Britain and Norway are promising to exchange intelligence, counter mine threats and improve their ability to detect submarines from hostile nations.
“What we know is the Russians have a work program, they have a specific naval program designed to both look at and potentially sabotage or attack critical national infrastructure belonging to its adversaries,” Wallace said at a joint press conference with his Norwegian counterpart Bjørn Arild Gram.
Leica hasn’t left Russia: The German camera manufacturer Leica Camera AG announced its withdrawal from Russia shortly after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Afterwards, it turns out, Leica never made good on this commitment. The Insider has established that not only did Leica never leave the Russian market, but it also increased its range of imports to Russia. Leica capitalized on the lucrative “dual-purpose goods” market for optical equipment, suppling Russia with binoculars equipped with laser rangefinders and with night-vision rifle scopes.
G7 leaders condemn Russia 'brutal' war on Ukraine, calling for 'lasting peace'
The G7 has condemned Russia’s “brutal” war on its neighbour Ukraine “in the strongest possible terms”, calling it a “serious violation of international law”, in its final communique from this week’s summit. As part of the statement, the world leaders called for “just and lasting peace” and recommitted their intention to provide Ukraine with military, financial and humanitarian support. Here is the section on the war in Ukraine:
We once again condemn in the strongest possible terms the war of aggression by Russia against Ukraine, which constitutes a serious violation of international law, including the UN Charter.
Russia’s brutal war of aggression represents a threat to the whole world in breach of fundamental norms, rules and principles of the international community. We reaffirm our unwavering support for Ukraine for as long as it takes to bring a comprehensive, just and lasting peace.
We issued the G7 Leaders’ Statement on Ukraine, and with the clear intention and concrete actions set forth in it, we commit to intensifying our diplomatic, financial, humanitarian and military support for Ukraine, to increasing the costs to Russia and those supporting its war efforts, and to continuing to counter the negative impacts of the war on the rest of the world, particularly on the most vulnerable people.
President Biden will announce a $375m military aid package for Ukraine while in Hiroshima, Japan, where he is attending G7 summit, a US official has said. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said on Friday that the package would include artillery, ammunition and Himars rocket launchers, Reuters reported.
At the summit in Japan, president Zelensky met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “We discussed the first results of the visit to Germany. He thanked for the powerful defense assistance that Ukraine will receive from Germany. It is important to implement the points of the Ukrainian formula for peace,” the President of Ukraine said.
British prime minister Rishi Sunak has met President Zelensky at the G7 summit in Hiroshima after the Ukrainian president closed in on obtaining the F-16 fighter jets he wants to fight off Russia.
President Zelensky said he invited India to join Ukraine’s peace formula during his talks with prime minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Group of Seven (G7) summit on Saturday in Japan.
President Zelensky- Peace Formula. “We attract as many countries and leaders as possible for the sake of Ukraine. Defense. Long-term support programs for Ukraine. Finance and economy. First day in Hiroshima ahead of the G7 is very powerful. The second day will be even more powerful.”
G7 leaders vow that attempts to "weaponise" trade and supply chains will "fail and face consequences" in a Saturday statement seen as a thinly veiled warning to China over its economic practices, reports AFP.
President Biden will be meeting with president Zelensky in private at The Grand Prince Hotel, Hiroshima, at 14:15 today.
This is Russia’s reaction to the G7 Summit and all the other meetings president Zelensky has attended: meldown. From Julia Davis’s Russian Media Monitor:
Lavrov said today that decisions taken by the G7 at its summit in Japan were aimed at the “double containment” of Russia and China. Addressing a televised conference, Lavrov reiterated Russia’s claim that the West is using Ukraine as tool to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. Reuters reports that Lavrov said:
The task was set loudly and openly - to defeat Russia on the battlefield, but not to stop there, but to eliminate it as a geopolitical competitor,” Lavrov said.
Look at the decisions that are being discussed and adopted today in Hiroshima at G7 summit of the Seven, and which are aimed at the double containment of Russia and China.