May 22: E-Stories
Day 453: Donetsk Kharkiv Berdyansk Mospino Voronezh Bakhmut Wagner Zabaykalye PutinBunker Pope EU G7 Rheinmetall Sandu Italy A&Ps Whithorn UKDef ISW DeepState Vadym Sumlenny Danylov Davis DarthPutin
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Officials: Russian shellings kill 5, injure 13 in 4 different oblasts. Russian shellings killed five civilians and injured four between May 19 and May 20 in the Kherson, Kharkiv, and Donetsk oblasts, officials report.
“As a result of a night strike, the [Ukrainian] Defense Forces successfully hit the headquarters of one of the occupying units in the city of Berdyansk. The losses of the enemy are being specified,” the Strategic Communications Department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a statement.
The Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian ammunition depot located in the territory of the Mospino airfield in occupied Donetsk oblast. The Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile defense system, which was responsible for the defense of the airfield area, was destroyed near Mospino at an earlier date.
In Voronezh, 500km from Moscow, a fire broke out in the area of a powerplant. Water and electricity were affected, leaving some parts of the city without services.
One person died and three more were injured of varying severity in the occupied Tokmak in the north of the Zaporozhye region as a result of the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Interfax reports citing emergency services. During the shelling, the city was de-energized, two transformers in the electrical network, an electrical substation near the school and a cafe building were damaged.
As reported by 3rd Assault Brigade, the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has advanced another 700 metres on the outskirts of Bakhmut. "[We are] confidently moving forward, successfully repelling the attacks of the enemy," the message reads.
Ukraine’s military: Russia bringing airborne, motorized rifle units to Bakhmut. In addition to Wagner Group mercenaries, Russia is sending airborne and motorized rifle units to Bakhmut, Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Operational Command, reported on May 20. Capturing Bakhmut reportedly remains a top priority for Russia’s military.
This is Bakhmut. This is what Prigozhin said he won on Saturday, and what he is leaving the Russian forces when Wagner leaves on May 25. From Hiroshima, president Zelensky said that Bakhmut is still not entirely under Russian control. “There are no buildings in Bakhmut. They destroyed everything, For today, it is only in our hearts.”
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed on 21 May that "[t]he enemy keeps concentrating its main efforts on conducting offensive actions on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mariinka fronts.”
Why would Prigozhin claim to have “won” Bakhmut? As per usual, all Russian communications come in support of an on-going or future operation. In this case, it was essential to claim Russian victory on Saturday as Zelensky met with world leaders, hijacking the news cycle, and for Putin to use it. Russian aligned accounts on were quick to amplify Prigozhin’s statements across most social media platforms. What was lost in the communication was that Prigozhin’s irregular army would be leaving Bakhmut in the hands of the Russian regular army on May 25.
The Wagner PMC has announced that beginning May 25th they will begin to withdraw their Forces from Eastern Ukraine in order for them to be deployed to other “hotspots” across the world including Sudan and Syria; their previous positions in Ukraine specifically across the Bakhmut Front will be replaced by soldiers and equipment from the Russian Ground Forces.
When the regular Russian troops lose Bakhmut, it will be Shoigu and Gerasimov’s loss, not his. Besides this, the Russian leader can finally say he’s won something and decorate a few servicemen, as reported by TASS.
The wives and mothers of soldiers from Khakassia and Altai republics published a video appeal to Putin, complaining that Veterany mercenaries, where their men are serving, were not keeping track of casualties among the mobilised personnel and dif not support them on the front lines. The Russian Ministry of Defence will incorporate the Veterany mercenaries into their structure. Russian soldiers from Veterany are operating in Bakhmut.
The Russian arms industry is currently capable of producing up to 67 missiles per month. Russia has likely used up its missile stockpiles but has successfully established a production line for fresh munitions.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who met President Zelensky for the first time on the sidelines of the G7, has said he is planning to provide Ukraine with mine-removing equipment and ambulances. Yoon added that South Korea would “carefully review” a list of some non-lethal weapons requested by Zelenskiy.
Vadym Vietrov: 3D model of Putin's bunker in Gelendzhik in Russia. The underground complex of the Russian criminal, wanted by the international court, has several exits. The drawings date back to early 2010 which indicate that Putin was already hatching war plans and "preparing for the worst".
Pope Francis appoints Cardinal Zuppi to lead peace mission in Ukraine. In a significant move aimed at resolving the ongoing war, Pope Francis has entrusted Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna and President of the Italian Bishops' Conference, to lead a peace mission in Ukraine.
EU leader promises to take on companies that help Russia violate sanctions. The EU's new package of sanctions against Russia will target more than 90 companies that help Moscow evade sanctions, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a May 20 interview with German publication ZDF.
The EU will provide Ukraine with a support package for 2023 up to 18 billion euros in the form of soft loans, 6 billion have already been paid out.
Rheinmetall wants joint enterprise with Ukraine to produce armored vehicles. German automotive and defense manufacturer Rheinmetall wants to work jointly with Ukrainian state defense contractor Ukroboronprom to manufacture Fuchs armored personnel carriers, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger told German publication Bild.
President Maida Sandu has accused Russia of seeking to sabotage its European integration by fuelling anti-government protests and propaganda. Moscow denies meddling in Moldova’s affairs. At the rally organised by her government, Sandu pledged that Moldova would become an EU member by 2030, and said:
Moldova does not want to be blackmailed by the Kremlin.
We don’t want to be on the outskirts of Europe anymore.
G7: Ukraine Peace Formula
President Zelensky has proposed a peace conference for July, and released the following statement on his offical Telegram channel:
Our world is vast, but we are all in it together. And this is our shared cause – peace.
Ukraine proposed its Peace Formula to the world. As long as Russian invaders remain on our land, no one will sit down at the negotiating table with Russia. The colonizer must get out. And the world has enough power to force Russia to restore peace step by step.
We have developed the Peace Formula in a way that ensures each of its points is backed by UN resolutions. And in a way that everyone in the world can choose the track they can contribute to. From Japan to the Arab countries, from Europe to Latin America, we find support for our Formula. And we continue this work.
Soon - 500 days of a full-scale war, it will be in July. And this is a symbolic period of time, a good month to put together a peace formula summit - a world majority summit. A summit of all who respect honesty and want to end this war. I invite you to join the joint efforts,” the President of Ukraine said during the G7 summit at the working session “Towards a peaceful, stable and prosperous world.”
G7 statements about China
Now, President Biden stresses the joint decision by the G7 nations to "derisk and diversify" from the Beijing government.
"We are not looking to decouple, we are looking to de-risk and diversify," he told reporters.
The president stressed the importance of not being dependent on Chinese supply chains, resisting economic coercion and countering "harmful practices that hurt our workers. It means protecting a narrow set of advance technologies critical for our national security," he added.
"Those elements are all agreed on by the G7."
Russian reaction to latest developments at G7 Summit
PS. They’re really pissed.
Russia’s foreign ministry has dismissed the G7 summit in Japan’s Hiroshima as a “politicised” event that it said had pumped out anti-Russian and anti-Chinese statements.
In a statement posted on Telegram, the Russian Foreign Ministry, headed by Lavrov, said that the G7 had “irreversibly deteriorated” and that the forum had become “an ‘incubator’ where, under the leadership of the Anglo-Saxons, destructive initiatives that undermine global stability are prepared”.
The Russian Foreign Ministry, in the same statement, accused the G7 of “flirting” with non-Western states in an effort to stymie the development of their ties with Moscow and Beijing.
It said it was convinced though that the forum was incapable of reflecting the interests of the Asia-Pacific region, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa or Latin America.
Kazakhstan Has Become a Pathway for the Supply of Russia’s War Machine. Here’s How It Works.—OCCRP
Read the story here.
Serhii Danylov, Sociological study of the occupied regions
Serhii Danylov:
- The Russians invested a lot of different, contradicting narratives, just to spam the discussion;
- One of the most massively produced Russian narratives: "it is the Ukrainians who shell you", this is 3/4 of all Russia-produced rumours;Serhii Danylov further on the sociological studies of the liberated territories, how they lived under the Russians:
- It was very hard for people to wait for the liberation, they did not know how long they need to carry on;
- Amid blackouts radio was most available media;Serhii Danylov: it was incredibly important to provide occupied territories with info on the Russian losses. Respondents said:
- We searched for KIA info daily. Just to find a number of the Russian KIA. 1st thing every morning. Never thought this would make me so happy.Serhii Danylov: people looked for different safety models for communication. Some cut any contacts, talking only to relatives. Language was a very important factor. Some started to talk to the Russians only in Ukrainian. This was a way of resistance, claiming the space.
Serhii Danylov: in a town Zelenivka there was an older male who started to walk through public spaces and loudly talked Ukrainian, and urged there others to talk only Ukrainian. This was a way to claim the occupied territories as Ukrainian.
Serhii Danylov: a dilemma came if the locals should take the Russian "humanitarian help" or "pensions" or not. Many locals took it, seeing it as a way to take Russian resources. Some pensioners took all the "pensions" from the Russians and transferred money to Ukrainian army.
Serhii Danylov: the Russians created artificially situations humiliating people, like throwing food on soil, or creating a crowd. The Russians loved to film all such cases when people were humiliated while receiving "humanitarian aid", to present Ukrainians as poor ones.
Serhii Danylov: not all collaborators betrayed Ukrainians to the Russians, even if these UKR harshly criticised the collaborators. But the collaborators were those who invested most energy in spreading RU narratives and trying to distort reality, turning into RU agents.
Serhii Danylov: the Russians tried to set the rules of the RusskiyMir:
- In one case, every morning, the Russians came to the local market and loudly said: "Good morning, you Russian people! This is Russian land forever!" - this triggered people a lot.Serhii Danylov: I don't mention here kidnapping, rape, execution, most people know this. But there was another way to pressure people: for example, by houses searches the Russias added more trauma: they deliberately broke furniture, massively defecated in the rooms, etc.
Serhii Danylov: the largest gap is now between those who collaborated and those who not. The problem: there were many actions which are seen as collaboration, but they are clearly beyond any crime: for example trade with the Russians, or consuming food or alcohol together.
Serhii Danylov: these cases cannot be prosecuted, but the locals who rejected any contacts with the Russians, see this as an unfair lack of consequences.
Serhii Danylov: when we asked the locals, if there were any resistance, most said: "no". But we realised that the locals call only armed fight "resistance". And there were a lot of resistance cases, including removal of the Russian flags, or vocal conflicts with the RU.
Serhii Danylov: a very important way to resist was not to accept the Russians' rules. For example: a granny goes to the street which the Russians blocked. The Russians say: "it is forbidden". The granny: "It is my land, I go where I want to go".
Serhii Danylov: In Zelenivka the locals created an underground school for kids. The parents went regularly to a place where they had mobile network and received tasks from the school in the free territory. They did not let kids to go to a Russian school.
Serhii Danylov: The resistance has mostly female face. The Russians did not expect that women have so much importance and influence in Ukraine. Ukrainian women organised a lot of info collection and analysis, civilian women googled+learned all the types of the RU equipment.
A representative of a local administration: Several months of occupation demonstrated, that our self-governance reforms in the local communes which took place since 2014 helped a lot. The occupation took us all the basic rights. But the community network remained.
A representative of a local administration: this was an argument of the local commune's head towards the Russians: "I cannot do this and that, the locals will not listen to me". The Russians did not understand it: "You are the head of the village, you may just give an order".
A representative of a local administration: the Russians could not understand how the society works here, they believed that people are not different from the Russians. They installed a pro-RU advertising board, but regularly there appeared a graffiti "Putin is a d*ckhead".
A representative of a local administration: our kids visited Ukrainian online schools. We paid with Hryvnya in digital payments. We created a parallel underground independent society, Ukraine continued to exist in these forms, it was extremely important, this parallel life.
A representative of a local administration: the Russian collaborators say: "don't support liberation. If Ukraine liberates this town, (the Russians) will shell it. You don't want to live a liberated town close to a frontline. Under occupation you don't have shelling."