May 23: E-Stories
Day 454: Kupiansk Izium Dnipro ZNPP Bakhmut Belgorod IAEA RUFoodStamps RUbirth Georgia CNwheat Solovyov Crimea Belarus Brexit Sullivan A&P UKDef Finley Davis Perpetua Ilves Harris DiResta Cookman Baza
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
As of the evening of 22 May, Russian occupation forces are continuing to focus their main efforts on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka fronts. Fighting for the city of Bakhmut continues.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine report that Russian forces are on the defensive on the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fronts, but they continue to attack civilian infrastructure in frontline settlements.
Over the course of today, Ukrainian aircraft carried out eight airstrikes on areas where Russian military personnel and equipment were concentrated and two on Russian anti-aircraft missile systems.
Ukraine’s defence forces downed a Russian Mi-24 attack helicopter and a reconnaissance drone.
Governor: Russian troops hit Kupiansk, injuring 2 civilians. Russian forces struck Kupiansk in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv Oblast on May 22, wounding two women, according to Governor Oleh Syniehubov.
Russian May 22 attack on Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, injures child. Russian troops conducted a missile strike on Kharkiv Oblast's city of Izium on May 22, wounding a 10-year-old boy, reported Prosecutor General's Office. The Russian attack also damaged residential buildings, outbuildings, and an enterprise, the prosecutors wrote. Russian forces launched two Soviet-era S-300 missiles at Izium from Russia's Belgorod Region bordering Ukraine, reads the report.
At least 8 people were wounded and scores of buildings were damaged in a Russian air attack on Dnipropetrovsk region. “The Russian invaders attacked military and infrastructure facilities of the eastern outpost of Ukraine – the city of Dnipro,” Ukraine’s air force said on the Telegram messaging service. “The attack was carried out by 16 different types of missiles and 20 Shahed-136/131 strike drones,” the air force said, adding that air defences brought down 20 Russian drones and four cruise missiles.
Operators of the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine destroyed the modern Russian Ironia ("Irony") optical-electronic surveillance system, installed by the invaders in one of the operational areas. With the help of this complex, the Russians were collecting information about the actions of the Ukrainian Defence Forces and identifying equipment and personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Ukrenergo reconnects Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as 4 oblasts face partial blackouts. Ukraine's state energy operator Ukrenergo reported restoring the external power line to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, earlier damaged by Russian shelling.
Defense Ministry: Ukrainian forces still fighting in Bakhmut, Russia brings reinforcements. Ukrainian forces are still fighting in Bakhmut, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported. She noted that Russian forces are conducting a sweep of captured parts of Bakhmut, bringing in further reinforcements and supplies.
“[In Bakhmut] the enemy continues to lead offensive actions. Fighting for the city of Bakhmut continues,” the armed forces said, adding that over the past day Russian forces had “unsuccessfully tried to recover lost positions south of the [nearby] settlement of Ivanivske”. Russia had also carried out air strikes on Bakhmut.
ISW: Wagner depleted after taking Bakhmut, Ukraine threatens encirclement. Wagner Group mercenaries have likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut, but at the cost of depleting their capabilities for future military actions, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its assessment on May 21.
The Russian-imposed leader of the occupied Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin, has said that Russian forces have begun demining operations in Bakhmut. Tass quotes him appearing on the Rossiya-24 TV channel and saying: “There is a preliminary demining of the city. It is important for us to carry out a complete, thorough demining. This is a very painstaking and difficult work, given the scale of the hostilities that took place there.”
Ukraine's military intelligence confirms operation by Russian anti-government groups in Belgorod region. Armed Russian anti-government groups allegedly fighting on Ukraine's side have started a combat operation in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence Andrii Yusov told Suspilne news outlet on May 22.
Governor claims explosions in Russia's Belgorod Oblast. Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed that an explosive device was dropped from a drone on a community in the region. He said there were no casualties or damage. During the shelling of the Grayvoron administration building, an employee of the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the deputy head of the administration were injured, according to Mash.
According to the authorities of the region, on May 22, a “sabotage and reconnaissance group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine” entered the villages of the Graivoronsky district. The Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps took responsibility for the action.
Vyacheslav Gladkov, the Belgorod governor has introduced emergency counter-terrorism mesasures, according to this message on Telegram:
“In order to ensure the safety of citizens in the Belgorod Region, the legal regime of the counter-terrorist operation has been introduced today, which establishes special measures and temporary restrictions.
“Starting with the verification of documents proving their identity and ending with the suspension of the activities of hazardous industries and organisations that use explosive, radioactive, chemically and biologically hazardous substances.”
Russian media on Belgorod: The Kremlin media reported that "the Russian Armed Forces set up a trap for Ukrainian saboteurs in Belgorod Region - they were specially allowed to go as far as the Graivoron district in order to eliminate them there."
In the Bryansk region, the village of Solovyovka came under artillery fire "from the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine", said the head of the region Alexander Bogomaz. “There are no casualties. As a result of the shelling, one residential building was destroyed, and an outbuilding was damaged,» the report says.
Air Force: Air defense needs more systems to counter ballistic missiles. Ukraine’s air defense lacks sufficient means to protect the airspace against large-scale ballistic missile strikes, Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said in the wake of heavy attacks against Ukraine on May 21-22.
Intelligence chief tells Russian soldiers to surrender, says frontline situation will get worse. Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov addressed Russian soldiers in a video on May 22, urging them to surrender if they do not want to die because the situation on the battlefield is set to "get worse."
UK intelligence: Russia creates ‘elite’ ground attack aviation group for Ukraine operations. According to the U.K. Defense Ministry, the aviation group's formation highlights how Russia's Air Force has so far underperformed in conducting air strikes against Ukrainian targets.
The Washington Post is reporting that the IAEA is pushing for an agreement to safeguard Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia NPP ahead of any counteroffensive. The report comes after the plant lost external power today for the seventh time during the conflict. The Post says that the plan being pushed by director general of the IAEA Rafael Grossi has five main points:
According to two diplomats familiar with the negotiations, Grossi’s plan includes five principles: a ban on stationing heavy military equipment and military personnel at the plant; a ban on firing from and toward the plant, including a ban on attacking the personnel at the site; protection of all safety and security systems at the plant; protection of all external power lines; and monitoring of compliance of the above-mentioned principles.
In Kolodezny Lane in Moscow, in the building where the military registration and enlistment office is located, on the morning of May 22, a fire broke out. As TASS reported , the fire was located on the sixth floor of a six-story building, which, in addition to the joint military commissariat of the Preobrazhensky district, houses offices, a cafe and a spa. 15 fire brigades were sent to the scene.
Needy residents of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug will be given electronic "certificates" to pay for food at supermarkets. This was reported by the press service of X5 Retail Group (the owner of the brands of these stores). Due to the war unleashed by Russia in Ukraine, citizens of the Russian Federation experienced a new wave of falling real incomes and a surge in inflation. According to Rosstat, in 2022, real disposable income of the Russian population decreased by 1% after rising by 3.2% in 2021. The rise in prices last year reached 17.83% in annual terms.
The State Duma proposed to stimulate the birth rate in Russia with the help of certificates for the purchase of domestic cars, Izvestia writes . As planned by the deputies, the amount of the payment will be 1 million rubles, young families up to 30 years old after the birth of their first child will be able to use it.
Read the RFE/RL article here.
China refused to buy Russian wheat despite Putin's requests. In January-April, China imported 6 million tons of wheat, which is 60% more than a year earlier. But Russian deliveries amounted to only 30,000 tons, or a tiny 0.5% of imports, Bloomberg notes, citing Chinese customs data. Grain was not included in China's extensive "shopping list", although its purchases were discussed at a meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping in Moscow at the end of March.
Navalny's associates discovered in Sochi the secret villas of the wife of General Surovikin and the mistress of Vladimir Solovyov. The cost of such houses is half a billion rubles. Of particular interest to Navalny's associates was the owner of the fourth secret house, basketball player Svetlana Abrosimova. The authors of the investigation claim that Abrosimova is the mistress of propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, with whom she has two joint children (and a common personal driver). Abrosimova has an American passport, and her and Solovyov's daughters have American citizenship, like those born in the United States.
Media: Mistress of top Kremlin propagandist gave birth in US. Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov's mistress owns a villa next to members of the Russian military elite in the Black Sea resort of Sochi and gave birth to her children in the U.S., Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny's team reported on May 22.
Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, appears to have warned Washington that any strike on Crimea could be considered a strike on Russian territory by Nato after the US president, Joe Biden, said he would support training for Ukrainian pilots on US F-16 fighter jets.
“I would like to warn representatives of the administration against thoughtless judgments on Crimea, especially in terms of ‘blessing’ the Kyiv regime for air attacks on the peninsula. Let me remind you that strikes on this territory are considered by us as an attack on any other region of the Russian Federation. It is important that the United States is fully aware of the Russian response.”
Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of president of Ukraine, has said “Crimea is an indisputable and inseparable part of Ukraine. It was, it is and it will be. The liberation of Crimea using any military force and means is the only rational way to stop ‘Russian aggressions’ and bring the world back to international law. It is Ukraine’s direct obligation and necessity today”
NATO key members have preliminarily supported the idea of providing Ukraine with security guarantees prior to its membership based on the Kyiv Security Compact. The security agreement, based on a proposal known as the Kyiv Security Compact, is expected to be signed following the NATO summit. An Israeli-style security agreement for Ukraine would give priority to arms transfers and advanced technology, Polish President Andrzej Duda said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
NATO Parliamentary Assembly recognizes Russian crimes in Ukraine as genocide. The NATO Parliamentary Assembly (NATO PA) has unanimously recognized Russia's crimes against Ukraine as genocide, Yehor Cherniev, the head of Ukraine's delegation at the assembly, said on May 22.
The Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has accused Alexander Lukashenko of personally ordering the illegal transfer of Ukrainian orphans and suggested he may be guilty of war crimes. Tsikhanouskaya, who lives in exile in Vilnius, said “ample evidence” had been gathered indicating the “direct involvement” of Lukashenko and his regime in the deportation of Ukrainian children from territories occupied by Russia to Belarus.
Tsikanouskaya’s team estimates that at least 2,150 children will have been brought to Belarus by the end of May 2023. Some have been sent to the Dubrava camp in the Minsk region, which is said to be run by Belaruskali, a state-owned potash company and major source of revenue for the Lukashenko regime.
Hungary will oppose any sanctions related to cooperation with Russia in the field of nuclear energy, said Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó, who is taking part in a meeting with his colleagues from EU countries in Brussels. On May 22, the foreign ministers of the EU countries held a meeting at which they discussed, among other things, the eleventh package of sanctions against Russia. They did not come to any decisions, Szijjarto said.
The European Union slapped Meta with a record $1.3 billion privacy fine Monday and ordered it to stop transferring users’ personal information across the Atlantic by October, the latest salvo in a decadelong case sparked by U.S. cybersnooping fears. The company said “there is no immediate disruption to Facebook in Europe.” The decision applies to user data like names, email and IP addresses, messages, viewing history, geolocation data and other information that Meta — and other tech giants like Google — use for targeted online ads.
Greece faces new national elections as early as June 25, with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis confirming Monday he would not try to build a coalition government — despite having dominated the ballot hours earlier by the most decisive margin in half a century. New Democracy has 40.79% and 146 seats, five short of a majority, winning in 58 of the country’s 59 constituencies. Syriza got 20.07% and 71 seats, while Pasok came in third at 11.46%. Turnout was 61%.
On May 18, a trilateral document was signed in the city of Xi'an in the PRC, which provides for the next steps on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway construction project. On September 14, 2022, within the framework of the SCO summit held in Samarkand, an agreement on cooperation on the construction of the Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China railway was signed. The railway would bypass Moscow.
Liz Cookman in Ukraine on Belgorod attacks
I spoke with @legion_svoboda to confirm the operation to “liberate” Russia’s Belgorod. They said they’re working independently of Ukraine and have taken three villages so far and are now fighting for Grayvoron.
[Video: They claim to be the Free Russia Legion fighters. Russian milbloggers are saying they are Ukrainian. It is claimed that the speaker in the video is Igor Ogordniychuk with the callsign "White Cook".]
They claim the surprise left Russian troops “fleeing in panic”.“If the Russian miltary is weak, we may get Belgorod itself,” Ilya Ponomarev told me. “If they are able to regroup, we can hold. If they redirect significant forces, we may retreat. The situation is developing.”
The Belgorod operation has “symbolic significance and the hope that is being spread among Russian elites and diaspora cannot be overestimated.”
The CIA starts a new in-your-face recruiting method for Russians- interview with Alex Finley
On the battlefield in Ukraine a Russian soldier signals surrender, in a video released by a Ukrainian battalion. Off the battlefield, the CIA is openly recruiting Russian defectors and dissidents with a video of its own.
The agency shared it on a newly announced Telegram channel called Securely Contacting the CIA. As of Wednesday, it had more than 11,000 subscribers.
"I think it's about time that the U.S. stepped up and actually started doing something so overt and in Putin's face. They have been messing with us for years and years," said Alex Finley, former CIA officer. Finley is an expert on Russian intelligence operations. And she sees a psychological effect at play.
SCRIPPS NEWS SASHA INGBER: Are these really efforts to recruit Russians or is this just meant to rattle Russian leadership?
FINLEY: I think this is an attempt at both, to destabilize internally inside Russia... then everybody is really just questioning everybody else around them. And that's when you get this sort of prisoner's dilemma where that destabilization and support for Putin really starts to unravel and fall apart. But then again, if you get somebody and actually recruit them — that's just gravy on top.
Finley says some Russians frustrated with the war are likely to come forward. And even if Russia's intelligence services flood the CIA with false information — something is learned.
In a cautionary note, another retired spy told Scripps News, on the condition of anonymity, that this modern form of recruiting could endanger informants, since no part of the internet is truly secure.
As for Russia, its Foreign Ministry spokesperson told a Russia news outlet it was "a very convenient resource for tracking those who apply."
