May 23: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
"Allies are afraid of escalation with Russia, so they do not shoot down missiles launched by Russia at Ukraine. I personally conveyed signals to the Polish side, the United States and other countries that we are ready to sign all the papers: that if they shoot down Russian missiles over our country, they will not be held responsible if it falls and something explodes, etc. But everyone is afraid of 'escalation'," Zelenskyi stated during an interview.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 3, injure 19 over past day. Russia targeted a total of 10 Ukrainian oblasts — Chernihiv, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson. Casualties were reported in the latter four regions.
Authorities say Russian guided munitions attack on Kharkiv injures at least 12, including 16-year-old boy. Russian troops attacked the city of Kharkiv with guided munition on May 22, injuring at least 10 people, according to preliminary information by the local authorities.
Ukraine World: Kharkiv needs air defence. The 820th day of the war. Russia intensifies its shelling of Kharkiv. Today alone, air raid sirens have been heard in the city for more than 10 hours. They are still ongoing. Rescuers are working with the consequences of today's shelling. The world cannot stand aside.
Governor: Russia trying to storm Luhansk Oblast's Bilohorivka, situation 'really difficult.' Russian troops have been trying to storm the village of Bilohorivka in Luhansk region, for three days, but the situation is under Ukraine's control, Governor Artem Lysohor told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's (RFE/RL) on May 22.
Chasiv Yar...It is Bakhmut, and many other Ukrainian cities, all over again. Bomb, destroy, kill, occupy. A proven recipe.
Police: Russian forces shooting civilians in Vovchansk. Speaking on air to KYIV24 on May 22, Oleksii Kharkivskyi, the town's police chief, said there had been "several" incidents and investigations were "ongoing."
May 23: one of the two overhead lines that feeds the Zaporizhzia Nuclear Power Plant has switched off. If the latter fails, another blackout will occur. Energoatom clarified that in the event of a failure of this line at the NPP, another complete blackout will occur, which is a serious violation of the conditions of safe operation and threatens the development of an accident.
Olga and I had a chat with Olena Halushka, co-founder of the International Centre for Ukrainian Victory and member of the board at the Anti-Corruptionl Action Centre in Ukraine. This is just a little clip from our chat, which covered news from the frontlines and behind the frontlines, issues surrounding Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure, and what Ukraine needs to win this war. We also touch on what it means to be under Russian occupation—this part is for those who are still saying that Ukraine should cede territory and accept a Russian ‘peace’ plan.
Combat Situation Update
President Zelensky on May 22: Today I spoke with General Syrsky about the situation at the front. The report of the Chief Commander was in the morning and just recently. The directions of the main battles have not changed. First of all, it is Pokrovske and other Donetsk directions. Also the Kupiansk direction in Kharkiv region. The entire border area is now receiving maximum attention, not only in the Kharkiv region, but also in the Sumy region. (Video of Vovchansk)
Russian troops in Vovchansk got stuck in street battles after minor successes during the offensive in the north of the Kharkiv region and suffered heavy losses, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi reports. "Currently, the enemy is transferring reserves from various directions, trying to support active assault actions, but without success," he adds.
Russian forces inside the Vovchansk district court. It is high likely that Ukraine has taken up defense behind the Vovcha river which creates a natural barrier. A part north of the river is still disputed.
Ukrainian troops at the front near Kharkiv report a decrease in the shortage of shells. With a $61 billion aid package belatedly approved by Congress last month, Ukraine's gunners say the crippling shortages are starting to ease.
10 Ukrainian military personnel have completed training in the Netherlands to maintain F-16 fighter aircraft. The Netherlands has pledged to make at least 24 F-16s available to Ukraine. These must also be maintained.
Ukrainian forces shoot down another Russian Su-25 aircraft. This is the fifth Russian Su-25 jet that Ukraine has reportedly shot down this month.
Defence of Ukraine: The russian Black Sea Fleet lost a warship again! As a result of the attack on May 19, Ukrainian defenders hit a "Cyclone" Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette. There is no place for russian scrap metal in Ukrainian Crimea!
Russian media: Oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai damaged after drone attack. A unit of an oil refinery in the Russian town of Slavyansk-on-Kuban was damaged in a drone attack, the Russian state-owned media RIA Novosti claimed on May 20, citing a source in the operating company.
Information emerged about the consequences of yesterday's missile attack on occupied Luhansk.
According to the usually well informed channel Dos'ye Shpiona, a building -used as a command post for the Russian Southern Group of Forces- beloning to the 'Ministry of Internal Affairs of the so-called LPR' was struck with SCALP-EG missiles. Reportedly 13 military personnel would have been killed and another 26 were wounded. Two unrelated sources also claim that the commander of the Southern Military District, Colonel General Gennady Anashkin, was wounded.
The purge in Russia continues. Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and Head of the Main Communications Directorate, Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin, was detained. He is accused of receiving a bribe on an especially large scale and faces up to 15 years in prison.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticized alleged plans for a "no-fly zone" in western Ukraine, warning it could drag Germany and NATO into direct conflict with Russia. His comments, made in Karlsruhe, were in response to a ten-page paper by former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen and the Ukrainian government. The paper proposes closer ties between Ukraine and NATO, including an air defense shield along Ukraine's western border to protect against Russian missiles and drones. Scholz labeled these plans as "dangerous talk from warmongers".
UK Defence: Russia has signed a decree for military conscription in the occupied area of Zaporizhzhia. With Russian casualties currently estimated to be 913 a day, the Kremlin are seeking any way to recruit more personnel and to avoid unpopular domestic mobilisation.
Official: Poland weighs shooting down Russian missiles near border. "This issue is being considered from a legal and technical point of view, but there are no decisions in this matter," Polish Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Pawel Wronski said.
"Congress got Ukraine the equipment, but Congress did not put restriction on the use of these weapons. It is Jake Sullivan and your administration putting restrictions on them," Head of the Foreign Affairs Committee Michael McCaul said to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Behind the Lines
THE RUSSIAN border guard is said to have removed the buoys marking the channel from Estonian waters in Narvajoe in the morning. News agency BNS and Estonian Broadcasting Corporation ERR report on the matter, The Narva River runs along the border between Estonia and Russia. According to Estonian Public Radio, Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stated at a press conference that it is a border incident and the matter is being investigated.
Swedish commander: Putin aims to control Baltic Sea, has his eye on Gotland Island. Russian President Vladimir Putin may be seeking dominance over the Baltic Sea and has his sights on the island of Gotland, Micael Byden, Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, said in an interview with RND published on May 21.
Norway has further restricted entrance of Russian citizens into its country. Restrictions will come into effect on May 29 and will apply to all those arriving in Norway for tourist purposes and other non-essential travel. Only a few exceptions remain.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs warned that any unilateral attempt by Russia to alter Baltic Sea borders would provoke a reaction. This follows Russia's announcement of plans to redefine its maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland, claiming new internal waters in the Gulf of Finland and near key coastal areas. The proposed changes involve adjusting geographical coordinates in these regions.
Russia launched counterspace weapon into orbit, US says. Wood described the move as "troubling." Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Pat Ryder separately said on May 21 the U.S. was monitoring the situation and had a "responsibility to be ready to protect and defend… the space domain."
Nine people arrested in Poland over alleged Russian sabotage plot. The Polish government arrested nine people from a Russian spy ring in connection to alleged sabotage plots, Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Polish media outlet TVN24.
It is “likely” that Russia was involved in the fire that recently destroyed Warsaw’s largest shopping centre, says Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. However, he added that investigations are still ongoing.
At a press conference on Tuesday afternoon, at which he was discussing the formation of a new commission to investigate Russian influence in Poland, Tusk said Russian operatives could have been involved in the fire that earlier this month destroyed the Marywilska 44 shopping centre.
“We are examining the threads – they are quite likely – that the Russian services had something to do with the Marywilska fire,” said Tusk. But he added that “proceedings are ongoing” and full information would be provided when the investigation reached a conclusion.
Warsaw shopping mall last week is already blamed on Russia and now Copenhagen's Novo Nordisk headquarters, the largest company in Europe is in flames.
According to a new investigation by The Wall Street Journal, European investigators believe that the Russian authorities are involved in a rising number of attempts to sabotage strategic infrastructure, but officials struggle with Europe’s high evidence standards and the legal challenges of prosecuting suspects. Specifically, sources told the WSJ that investigators suspect Russia of using civilians and commercial vessels to survey and possibly attack railways and maritime facilities such as undersea connections, offshore energy facilities, transport networks, and military installations.
Dr Ben Schmitt: Suddeutsche Zeitung reports that a cache of explosives and detonators was found *deliberately buried* just hundreds of meters from a section of the NATO oil/refined products pipeline network southwest of Heidelberg, Germany. Investigators have not attributed the incident yet, but it comes at a time of increasing concern about Russian responsibility for a wide range of critical infrastructure attacks across Europe.
Russia is jamming the GPS systems in Romania in the regions neighboring the Black Sea, right near the NATO base.
Stealing property in occupied Ukraine: Moscow-appointed officials in occupied Ukraine have declared more than 13,000 apartments and private homes to be “abandoned properties” and plan to confiscate them for the state, according to a new report by Novaya Gazeta Europe. Additionally, the average number of homes pro-Russian officials are claiming each month has skyrocketed from 234 in the first year of Russia’s invasion to roughly 1,500 homes now.
Politico: the EU is aiming to start formal accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova as soon as June 25 (the date of a European Council summit). There was a delay in talks owing to Hungarian opposition, but that has now been dealt with. Kyiv has been engaged in intensive bilateral discussions with Budapest to address those concerns, which have been laid out in an 11-point document, according to the diplomats.
FT: “Today I can reveal that we have evidence that Russia and China are collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine,” UK defence secretary Grant Shapps told a defence conference in London on Wednesday.
The defence secretary said new US and British intelligence showed “lethal aid is now or will be flowing from China to Russia and into Ukraine”, which Shapps said was “a significant development”.
His comments appeared to indicate that China had potentially pivoted to directly supporting Russia’s military in Ukraine, though he gave no details or evidence.
Even as Chinese companies have emerged as Russia’s key conduit for crucial components the Kremlin needs to sustain its defence industry, Beijing has largely shied away from helping Moscow’s war machine directly.
The US has warned China of consequences, which could include secondary sanctions, if its companies support the Russian war effort.
54 delegations IAEA conference call to punish Russia for jeopardizing global nuclear security. Fifty-four delegations supported Ukraine's statement that Russia is jeopardizing global nuclear and radiation security at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Conference on Nuclear Security in Vienna on May 22, the Energy Ministry reported.
Meanwhile in Russia
RBC—Important: Russian courts have received the right to use American property in Russia to compensate for damage from the seizure of Russian assets in the United States, according to a decree by President Vladimir Putin.
We are talking about movable and immovable property of the United States, American companies and citizens located on the territory of Russia, as well as securities owned by them, shares in the authorized capital of Russian companies and other property rights of the United States and Americans in Russia.
As follows from the decree, the Russian holder of rights to property represented by the state or the Central Bank, in the event of confiscation of this property in the United States, has the right to apply to the court with a request to establish the fact of “unjustified deprivation of his rights to property” in the United States. If the court agrees with the application, it requests a list of US property in Russia from the government Commission for the Control of Foreign Investments.
ISW: The Kremlin appears to be developing a system to legalize the status of Russia's so-called “compatriots abroad,” likely as part of its efforts to set information conditions to justify further aggression and hybrid operations abroad as “protecting” Russia's compatriots.
The European Union has approved the transfer to Ukraine of the proceeds from Russia's frozen assets, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic Jan Lipavský reports. "Up to €3B only this year, 90% goes for Ukraine's military. Russia must pay for its war damages," he said.
Me: the West and its governments should absolutely no qualms about using seized Russian assets ALL OF THEM…EVERY SINGLE EURO.
Julia Davis: Meanwhile in Russia: former State Duma member Elena Panina suggested Moscow should support rival clans in Iran and ensure that pro-Russian politicians come to power. Vladimir Solovyov had to resort to gestures to stop Panina from revealing too much.
Russian delegation in North Korea. According to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, these military ties are increasingly a "two-way street," in which North Korea provides Russia with military equipment to use in Ukraine.
Putin has appointed another former Economic Development Ministry official to a senior Defense Ministry position. Oleg Savelyev is the first deputy named to serve under Russia’s new defense minister, Andrey Belousov. Savelyev replaces Colonel General Yuri Sadovenko, a longtime close colleague of Sergey Shoigu, Belousov’s predecessor.
Russia’s government is temporarily lifting its export ban on gasoline, effective between May 20 and June 30, 2024. Officials say the measure is necessary to desaturate Russia’s automotive fuel market, prevent slowdowns at refineries, and free up ports by shipping away undelivered fuel that’s been taking up space.
China sanctions 12 US military companies over Taiwan, war in Ukraine. China sanctioned 12 American military companies and 10 defense executives on May 22 in response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and sanctions against Chinese firms the U.S. has accused of aiding Russia in its war against Ukraine.
The EU is preparing to tighten sanctions against Belarus to close a loophole that allowed Russia to import luxury cars and other Western goods banned by previous sanctions. The new curbs currently discussed aim to minimise the risk of circumvention.
Allied Support
The European Union has approved the transfer to Ukraine of the proceeds from Russia's frozen assets, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic Jan Lipavský reports. "Up to €3B only this year, 90% goes for Ukraine's military. Russia must pay for its war damages," he said.
Media: US to announce $275 million in additional military aid for Ukraine. The U.S. government will announce an additional $275 million in ammunition and artillery for Ukraine in the coming days, two U.S. officials told the Associated Press (AP) on the condition of anonymity.
Sweden plans to allocate $7 billion in military aid to Ukraine between 2024-2026. "Sweden will increase the support, as the framework amounts to 75 billion Swedish krona in military support for the years 2024–2026, which is 25 billion Swedish krona ($2.3 billion) per year," according to the statement.
Speaker Johnson says Ukrainians should be allowed to fight war as 'they see fit.' "(Ukraine needs) to be able to fight back. And I think us trying to micromanage the effort there is not a good policy for us," said U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson.
The UK is sending a £150 million military aid package to Ukraine to enhance its air and sea defenses. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps announced that the package includes £70 million worth of air defense radars, decoys, and electronic warfare systems. Additionally, £80 million will be allocated for small boats, reconnaissance drones, and uncrewed surface vessels.
Zelensky aims to attend next month’s D-Day commemoration in France followed by the G7 meeting in Italy. He is expected to use this trip to call, as he has in recent interviews, for more military support from the West and ask for NATO to shoot down Russian missiles like the United States and United Kingdom did when Iran attacked Israel.
Soldiers from all over the world have fought alongside the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The infograph displays the number who have sacrifice their lives for Ukraine, and where they come from.
May 21: German Foreign Minister Baerbock in Kyiv in surprise visit. Upon her arrival, Baerbock underscored Ukraine's need for air defenses to help repel Russian aerial attacks. "That's why, together with Defense Minister (Boris) Pistorius, I launched a global initiative for more air defense. Almost a billion euros have now been raised to provide additional support for the Ukrainian air defense forces, and we are working intensively to ensure that there is even more," she said.
"Almost €1 billion has now been raised to provide additional support for the Ukrainian air defense forces, and we are working intensively to ensure that there is even more," German Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock said.
The EU wants to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession in June. Behind the scenes, diplomats from the EU and Ukraine are working intensively to try to persuade the Hungarian government to give its approval to opening talks on Ukraine’s accession.
Every Western decision is late by a year, says Zelensky. Western partners have been deliberating key decisions on military assistance for Ukraine for "too long," President Zelensky said on May 20 in an interview with Reuters. The president described the delivery of aid, particularly badly needed air defense, as "one big step forward, but before that, two steps back." (Me: he’s right.)
Estonian PM Kallas: NATO training soldiers in Ukraine won't escalate war. The NATO allies' fears that sending troops to Ukraine to train the country's soldiers could draw them into war with Russia "are not well-founded," Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said in an interview with the Financial Times published on May 20.
Ander Fogh Rasmussen: Bringing Ukraine into NATO is the only way to guarantee long-term peace and stability in Europe.
FT: EU countries push for visa-free travel suspension, other sanctions against Georgia over 'foreign agents ' law. Estonia, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and Sweden are among several EU countries pushing for sanctions against Georgia in response to its government's passing of the controversial "foreign agents" law, the Financial Times (FT) reported on May 22, citing official sources.
Ros Atkins for the BBC: I’ve deleted the original version of our video on the protests in Georgia. A map that we used showed Crimea incorrectly. This is a new version of the video with the map amended. Apologies for the mistake.
Giorgi Kandelaki: The Venice Commission trounces GD's Foreign Agents' law piece by piece, effectively killing manoeuvres of the pro-status quo camp in Brussels to pave the way to softening the law and declaring a "compromise."
"The Venice Commission regrets [...] that this Law [...] was adopted in a procedure which left no space for genuine discussion and meaningful consultation, in open disregard for the concerns of large parts of the Georgian people."
“The Venice Commission strongly recommends repealing Law in its current form, as its fundamental flaws will involve significant negative consequences for freedoms of association & expression, right to privacy, right to participate in public affairs as well as prohibition of discrimination."
