May 24: E-Stories
Day 455: Avdiivka Sumy Toretsk SBU Bakhmut Voronezh Dyatkovo Wagner Pivdennyi Mushustin CN RCB RUoil Latvia EU NorthernGroup UK WarCrimesA&Ps UATV KyivIndie UKDef Shinkman Tchakarova Belarus Tendar
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
On Monday, President Zelensky announced his preparations for new meetings and negotiations, allowing Ukraine to get more weapons. He also said that the state leadership is doing everything possible to ensure that the decision of the NATO summit in Vilnius, scheduled for 11-12 June, "is the one that will work for us". He promised that an "intensive" foreign policy will continue with various "non-standard formats", while"maximizing the world's useful attention to Ukraine and our defense".
During the past 24 hours, the Russian army launched attacks on 10 regions of Ukraine, employing missiles, strike drones, aviation, and heavy artillery, according to the consolidated report from the regional military administrations. There were over 30 combat engagements with the Russian military in the directions of Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that:
Russia launched 48 airstrikes using Shahed drones, and targeted both civilian and military targets with up to 90 strikes using multiple-launch rocket systems
Shellings resulted in a yet unspecified number of injuries among civilians, as well as damages to residential buildings, kindergartens, and other civilian infrastructure.
The Russians have once again attacked Avdiivka with missiles, destroying a nine-storey apartment building to the ground. Two people were injured, and more people are trapped under the rubble, as reported by Vitalii Barabash, Head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, on Telegram.
Russia shells 5 communities in Sumy Oblast, injuring 1 person. Russian forces targeted the communities of Bilopillia, Myropillia, Yunakivka, Novoslobidske, and Velyka Pysarivka, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration said on May 22.
Pavlo Kyrylenko, Ukraine’s governor of Donetsk, one of the occupied regions of the Donbas which the Russian Federation claims to have annexed, has reported that the city of Toretsk was struck on May 23rd morning.
SBU detains suspected Russian spy collecting data on air defenses in Cherkasy. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained a suspected agent of the Russian military intelligence service – Main Intelligence Directorate (known as GRU) – in Cherkasy Oblast for collecting data on Ukraine’s military movement and air defense systems.
The offensive activity of the Russians on the Bakhmut front has slightly decreased. Ukrainian defenders control the outskirts of the city in the Litak area, as reported by Hanna Maliar, Deputy Minister of Defence, on Telegram. “The enemy continues to carry out mopping-up operations in the areas taken under its control," she added. According to Maliar, Ukrainian defenders control the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut in the Litak area. Fighting continues in the suburbs. She noted that the Russians are trying to capture favourable positions but do not succeed.
On May 22 evening, In Voronezh, Russia, a warehouse for plastic materials went up in flames. and the Telegram channel Sirena reports on May 23 that a factory warehouse used by a defence company caught fire in the village of Dyatkovo, Bryansk Oblast, Russia. The warehouse in Dyatkovo may be used by the Alexander company, a developer of optical parts and systems for space and military equipment and a contractor for Russia’s Ministry of Defence.
Russian media have reported a strike on the FSB office in Belgorod, Russia, with explosives allegedly dropped on the building. "In Belgorod, explosives were allegedly dropped from a drone on an FSB building. Smoke is visible on the roof of one of the buildings. The road to the building is blocked. Fire and emergency services are already at the scene," Readovka states. The information was not independently verified.
Russian governor claims drones shot down in Belgorod Oblast. On May 23, the governor of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast claimed that drones were shot down by air defenses over Belgorod city and the rest of the oblast. Earlier today, the governor reported that two civilians were injured in the settlements taken by Russian partisans.
Russia claims 'defeating' Belgorod incursion without providing any footage. Russian Defense Ministry announced a defeat of the "Ukrainian formations" that supposedly attacked Russia's Belgorod Oblast. The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the claim, while the Russian Defense Ministry provided no footage backing their claim.
The Russian military leadership has decided to shorten the training period for personnel consisting of convicted individuals to 10 days. The main camp, where approximately 1,000 individuals were transferred from Russian detention facilities, is located in the Starobilsk district of Luhansk Oblast.
Washington has been informed that Wagner is trying to obscure its efforts to acquire military equipment for use in Ukraine, and it is seeking to move those acquisitions through Mali to aid Russia in its war. The Voice of America cited Matthew Miller, the Spokesperson for the US Department of State:
"There are indications that Wagner has been attempting to purchase military systems from foreign suppliers and route these weapons through Mali as a third party. We have not seen as of yet any indications that these acquisitions have been finalised or executed, but we are monitoring the situation closely."
Drone allegedly targets electrical substation in Russia's Kursk Oblast. A drone allegedly dropped an explosive device on an electrical substation in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Governor Roman Starovoyt reported on May 23.
Reuters reports that the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has told the state-owned news agency RIA that, the more destructive the weapons Ukraine receives from its western backers, the higher the risk of “nuclear apocalypse”.
The Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi has halted operations because Russia is not allowing ships to enter it, in effect cutting it out of a deal allowing safe Black Sea grain exports, a Ukrainian official said on Tuesday.
“Formally, the port of Pivdennyi is in the initiative, but in fact it hasn’t been there for a month. It has no incoming fleet,” Ukrainian deputy renovation minister Yuriy Vaskov told Reuters.
“[Russia] has now found an effective way to significantly reduce grain exports by excluding the port of Pivdennyi, which handles large tonnage vessels, from the initiative,” he said in written comments.
Russia’s prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, on a visit to China, said that bilateral trade could reach $200bn (£160bn / €185bn) this year, up from $190bn last year. Already in the first three months of this year, trade between the two countries reached $53.8bn, a nearly 40% increase on the same period in 2022. Mishustin said that Russia would continue exporting energy to China and could increase agricultural exports.
Swiss bank freezes some accounts of Russian, Belarusian clients. One of the largest Swiss banks Julius Baer began freezing the investment accounts of its Russian and Belarusian clients at the request of the central securities depository Euroclear, Forbes Russia reported.
Russia’s sanctioned interior minister visits Saudi Arabia just days after Zelensky. The sanctioned Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokotsev visited Saudi Arabia on May 23. Kolokoltsev’s trip to Riyadh comes just days after Ukraine’s President Zelensky’s visit to the Saudi city of Jeddah. The visits underline how the kingdom and Gulf Arab states, traditionally the security clients of the United States, have been maintaining their relations with Moscow amid the Ukraine war.
The balance of trade has shifted in favor of China: it supplies more goods to the RF than it buys. As a result, 25Bln yuan, went from Russia to China in six months, Egor Susin, managing director of GPB Private Banking, calculated.
Russian forces continue to employ a tactic of using the civilian population as human shields in occupied territories, placing them on upper floors of residential buildings, while they themselves station on the ground floors to evade Ukrainian air attacks, as reported by Natalia Gumenyuk, Chief of the Joint Press Center of the Operational Command "South". Gumenyuk highlighted that this behavior represents a typical tactic employed by the Russian Forces, which they have also demonstrated in the right-bank part of Kherson Oblast.
Russia's oil flows stay high even as Moscow insists cuts made. Shipments from Russian ports are 1.2 million barrels a day higher than at the end of 2022. Russian crude oil flows to international markets still show no sign of the output cuts the country insists it is making. Four-week average seaborne shipments, which smooth out some of the volatility in weekly numbers, rose for a sixth straight week in the period to May 19, edging close to 4 million barrels a day. Flows are now up by 15% since the first week of April and hit a new high for the period since Bloomberg began tracking them in detail at the start of 2022. With almost all Russia’s crude going to China and India, volumes to Asia also climbed to a new peak. More volatile weekly flows edged lower.
Ināra Mūrniece, Defence Minister of Latvia, believes it is premature to believe that Russia, despite significant losses in the full-scale war in Ukraine, is weakened and incapable of new "strategic surprises".
"Despite the usual threats to the security of our region, we must also be prepared for the fact that Russia will continue to use its wide arsenal of hybrid and nuclear threats to intimidate and weaken the support of Ukraine from the West," the Minister of Defence of Latvia believes.
Ukraine receives another 15 billion euros in EU macro-financial assistance. Ukraine has received another 1.5 billion euros (about $1.6 billion) as part of the European Union's macro-financial assistance package, the Finance Ministry reported on May 23.
EU High Representative Josep Borrell said on May 23 at a meeting in Brussels that several countries, including Poland, have begun training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s. He also stressed that the F-16s are an absolute necessity "for Ukrainians to continue their defence". Citing the example of the long debate and initial opposition to the dispatch of advanced Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine, he has said:
You know, it’s always the same thing, we discuss, at the beginning everybody is reluctant. And, at the end with the Leopards, with the F-16 at the end, the decision comes to provide this military support because it is absolutely needed.
Yurii Sak, advisor to Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, has suggested that the Netherlands could be the first to provide Kyiv with F-16 fighter jets. Ukrainian pilots have been training on simulators since the summer of 2022, reducing the time they need for training.
On Monday the defence ministers and senior officials from 12 northern European countries met in Poland to talk about stepping up deterrence and security on Nato’s eastern flank and strengthening Ukraine’s defences. Members of the Northern Group include Britain, Germany, Poland and Finland.
After the meeting, Poland’s defence minister Mariusz Blaszczak said the “very good” talks were focused on coordinating ways of providing security to countries in the group.
He underscored good cooperation with Britain and Sweden, saying the two countries have similar views on threats coming from Russia as wages war on Ukraine.
“We are looking for joint solutions to ensure security,” Blaszczak said.
He said Poland’s efforts to obtain early warning planes from Sweden were moving forward.
Officials also discussed preparations for the July Nato summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, and Poland’s proposals for it, Blaszczak said.
That summit is expected to gauge prospects for Ukraine’s membership.
Germany is looking into options to support a coalition of countries that plan to train Ukrainian pilots in flying F-16 fighter jets, German defence minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday. Reuters reports he added that any potential German contribution could be minor only, as Germany itself does not own any of the US-built jets.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister begins Africa tour. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba began his African tour this week, starting in Morocco, as he seeks to challenge Russia’s influence on the continent. Kuleba plans to endorse President Volodymyr Zelensky’s peace formula and guarantee grain supplies flow to African countries, Foreign Minister wrote on Instagram on May 22.
In a rare intervention in foreign domestic politics, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Monday that he hopes Biden will win next year’s U.S. election, and not his predecessor Donald Trump. “I think the current president is better, so I want him to be reelected,” Scholz said during an event at a school close to Berlin, Hans von der Burchard writes in to report.
President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy could not reach an agreement on how to raise the US government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling with just 10 days before a possible default that could sink the economy, but vowed to keep talking.
The International Monetary Fund said that it no longer expects Britain's economy will fall into a recession this year, upgrading forecasts that it published last month, but it also warned that the outlook remains subdued.
CDS Daily Brief, Russian war crimes
The sexual crimes committed by Russian forces on the territory of Ukraine attest to Russia's systematic policy against the civilian population of Ukraine. Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Malyar made this statement during the conference "#U4J: Respect. Support. Justice", reported Ukrinform.
She emphasized that [Russian war] crimes go beyond mere aggression and encompass a range of atrocities, including sexual crimes. Malyar stated that the Russian forces are essentially waging war against the civilian population, exhibiting acts of medieval cruelty.
She further mentioned that the Ministry of Defense has a dedicated group investigating these crimes and collecting necessary data, including communicating with Ukrainian servicemen who have returned from Russian captivity. Among them, 23% of women and 15% of men reported being aware of cases of sexual violence against Ukrainian citizens who were held captive by the enemy.
Help centers for victims of sexual violence have been established in ten Ukrainian cities, as announced by Vice Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefaniyshyna. Through collaboration with the Office of the UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence, the Ukrainian government has developed an effective mechanism for a comprehensive response to acts of violence. "We provide a point of entry for survivors into a system of comprehensive specialized support: legal, socio-psychological, and informational. Assistance is based on key principles: confidentiality, unconditional support, voluntary informed consent, and free of charge," emphasized the Vice Prime Minister.
Q&A with Francis Farrell about Wagner & Bakhmut
Paul D. Shinkman, Putin Appeals to Russian Church as Dangers to His Regime Grow, US News
Russian President Vladimir Putin has transferred two sacred religious icons from state-run museums to the control of the Russian Orthodox Church – a move presented as an act of piety but more widely interpreted as pandering to his country’s conservative domestic base while a national crisis creeps closer to his door.
The office of Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and all Russia – the most senior figure in Russia’s Christian church and a longtime ally of Putin – revealed in a short press release on Monday that Putin had responded “to numerous requests from Orthodox believers” and ordered the 15th century religious icon known as Trinity by Andrei Rublev, previously housed at the Tretyakov Gallery in Moscow, to be transferred to the church. The icons, highly stylized religious paintings hundreds of years old that are believed to be divinely inspired and capable of producing miracles, are venerated among the faithful.
The Trinity, one of the most revered icons in the church, will appear on display at a cathedral in Moscow for a year before being installed at the Trinity Cathedral of the Holy Trinity Sergius Lavra in accordance with long-held goals of the patriarchy to make the religious artworks more widely accessible. Church leaders have argued that having the symbols publicly displayed would add focus to believers’ prayers at a time of national instability. [continue reading]