May 24: E-Stories
InUkraine SitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
In the Poltva region, a UAV strike and falling debris destroyed a facility and damaged 7 private homes. One person was injured. The attack also caused fires and disrupted power lines—leaving over 100 businesses and nearly 1,800 households without electricity. An additional 270 subscribers lost power in Poltava district.
In Chernivtsi region, west Ukraine, Russian drones caused damage to railway infrastructure. Even western Ukraine, close to the border with Romania (NATO and EU state), is targeted by frequent Russian long-range drone attacks.
Near Kolomyia, Ivano-Frankivsk region, Russian drones damaged buildings and vehicles. Even western Ukraine, close to the borders with Poland and Romania (NATO and EU states), is targeted by frequent Russian long-range drone attacks.
9 Ukrainian children rescued from Russian-occupied territories, President's Office says. Among the rescued children is a girl whose life was in danger due to the lack of adequate medical care in the occupied territories, and a boy who, along with his mother, was locked in a basement by Russian forces while his father was tortured in a nearby room, Presidential Office chief Andriy Yermak said.
Reuters: Ukraine and Russia began a major prisoner swap on Friday expected to be the biggest of the war, as agreed last week at their first direct talks in more than three years, a Ukrainian military source said.
Ukrainian authorities told reporters to assemble at a location in the northern Chernihiv region in anticipation that some freed prisoners could be brought there. The Ukrainian military source said the swap was still under way.
Combat Situation
Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted and destroyed 159 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions from 8:00 to 20:00, including 22 drones over the Moscow area, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russia exerts pressure along entire front line, Ukrainian troops hold ground successfully – Estonian intelligence. Russian forces continue to exert pressure along all major fronts in Ukraine, but Ukrainian units are successfully holding their positions, Estonian Defence Forces' Intelligence Centre reports.
Pressure remains high in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around the town of Kostiantynivka. Russian offensive operations are also ongoing from the direction of the settlements of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.
Over the past week, Russian forces have advanced in the area between the settlements of Pokrovsk and Toretsk. While the territorial gains are small, Russian troops have managed to seize a key section of the highway between Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. However, the occupation of Kostiantynivka is considered unlikely in the near future.
Russian forces continue to carry out high-intensity attacks near Pokrovsk and towards Novopavlivka, which account for half of all strikes.
Nevertheless, these efforts have not led to significant results. Estonian military officials noted that Ukrainian forces are successfully holding the line. Overall, Estonian defence forces assess that the frontline situation has remained stable for several months, essentially since the beginning of the year.
May 22: A drone strike hit the "Patriot Expo" center near Moscow, damaging two exhibition pavilions and injuring a security guard with shrapnel. Several cars in the parking lot were also hit, according to local sources.
Ukrainian General Staff confirms strike on Energiya factory in Russia's Lipetsk Oblast. Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, in coordination with other defence forces units, have carried out a strike on the Energiya defence company in the city of Yelets in Russia’s Lipetsk Oblast on the night of 22-23 May. The factory produced batteries for aerial bombs, Iskander missiles and naval weaponry.
4 Chechen officers killed in car bombing in Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast, Ukraine's HUR claims. The first blast was followed by more explosions, as the officers were allegedly transporting ammunition that detonated.
Behind the Lines
A Russian SU-24 aircraft was performing dangerous manoeuvres on Thursday evening and was intercepted by Polish Air Forces, Minister of National Defence Wladysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said on Friday, without giving further details. He added that the order to intercept the aircraft was issued by the joint operational command for NATO allied forces in Europe and the Polish jets located the aircraft, intercepted it and effectively deterred it.
UA drone maker Skyeton is developing a new airborne electronic reconnaissance system with Denmark’s Quadsat, using the ACS-3 Raybird UAV. The system will locate enemy radars, EW gear and RF sources—stealthily & in real time. Its release is set for Drone Show Denmark 2025.
Ukroboronprom signed a cooperation memorandum with KNDS Belgium SA to jointly produce medium-caliber ammo for automatic cannons targeting infantry, light armor & low-flying aerial threats. CEO Oleg Hulyak highlights this partnership boosts Ukraine’s integration into NATO’s defense industry.
Putin announces decision to create a buffer zone along the border with Ukraine Putin stated that Russia will establish a security zone along the border to “ensure protection from shelling and incursions from Ukraine.” Ukrainian commanders reported that they saw Russian troop buildup along the Kharkiv border. In Sumy, Russian forces are already active.
Michael Weiss: Sure sign your war's going great when the country you sought to conquer is hitting you so hard on your own territory, you need a "buffer zone."
Russian FM Lavrov stated that a second round of negotiations with Ukraine is planned, with Moscow advancing the memorandum’s development, but dismissed the possibility of talks at the Vatican as unrealistic. He also said that “the question of Zelensky’s legitimacy will be crucial when it comes to signing a peace agreement.”
HS Information—Antti Pelttar is suspected of treason
According to Helsingin Sanomat, the suspected crime of treason is the disclosure of a security secret. The Prosecutor's Office reported on Thursday only the suspicion of a crime of official misconduct. The minimum penalty for revealing a security secret is a fine and the maximum penalty is two years' imprisonment.
Pelttar is suspected of committing crimes in his previous position as head of the Security Police. A retired civil servant was involved in counter-espionage targeting Russia. He is suspected of having received classified information, even though he was a civilian. Pelttari worked as the Chief of the Security Police from 2011 to 2023 and became the Secretary General of Parliament in 2024.
Last year, HS reported that several former or current employees of the Security Police are suspected of crimes. Among them is Pertti Haaksluoto , who served as head of counterintelligence and is suspected of official misconduct and revealing security secrets.
The Security Police have said that, according to their information, "no one has acted for the benefit of a foreign state, for example, but the aim of the activities has always been to protect national security."
POLITICO—German firm shipped restricted tech to Russia — after EU sanctions kicked in. A German-based technology company was able to export restricted tech to Russia even after the EU imposed a fresh round of sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s regime over his invasion of Ukraine.
An investigation by POLITICO has found that Kontron — which has operations across the EU, Britain and America — used its Slovenian subsidiary to export over €3.5 million in sensitive telecommunications tech to its Russian arm in late 2023.
Export records reviewed by POLITICO show that 11 shipments were sent from Kontron’s Slovenian subsidiary, Kontron d.o.o, to its Russian subsidiary, Iskra Technologies, between July and November 2023 — months after the June sanctions came into force.
The exported technology included a dual-use product which can monitor and intercept communications traffic, known as the SI3000.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
The Russian shipping company Sovcomflot, the largest maritime operator in Russia, reported a net loss of US$393 million in the first quarter of 2025.
The company attributes the financial downturn to Western sanctions, which have disrupted fleet management, caused some vessels to stand idle and significantly reduced profits.
In January 2025, additional Sovcomflot vessels were added to the sanctions list and a US licence previously allowing some vessels to operate was revoked.
As a result, the company’s revenue for the first quarter fell by 49% compared to the same period last year, reaching US$278.5 million. EBITDA dropped 69% to US$105 million.
The Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky Sea Port (PKMP) of federal significance and its associated assets, including the Kamchatka Shipping Company, have been transferred to state ownership. The decision to this effect was made by the Leninsky District Court of Vladivostok, Interfax reports.
Federal Security Service (FSB) officers detained Krasnodar Krai Vice-Governor Alexander Nesterenko, who was fired on May 21 for failing to deliver social facilities on time. A criminal case was opened against the former official for abuse of office (Article 285 of the Criminal Code), a TASS source reported. According to the agency's source, the claims against Nesterenko are related to his activities in 2023-2024 at his previous place of work in the Main Construction Directorate of Krasnodar Krai. At that time, his boss was former deputy head of the region Sergei Vlasov, who was detained in May 2024 on charges of accepting a bribe. Searches were conducted at Nesterenko's home and workplace.
Russia cuts key projects in aviation, tech, auto industries as oil revenues plummet. The Russian government is slashing budgets for major projects across a number of sectors amid an economic downturn and oil price collapse, the pro-Kremlin news outlet Kommersant reported.
The Kremlin's desire to completely seize at least four regions of Ukraine is pushing the military authorities to be creative. In order to increase the number of soldiers thrown by the command into "meat assaults," Russia has launched a scheme to recruit "personnel" supposedly to work for good money in the rear areas. In reality, as Verstka has found out , there are no guarantees that recruits will be distributed to "safe" positions.
The essence of the new "scheme" is that men are lured into signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense through Avito and other civilian websites. In the ads, accounts with names like "Defenders of the Motherland," "Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation," or "ZOV — Rear Guard" promise citizens service in the rear — as drivers of humanitarian supplies, builders of fortifications, guards of "new territories," plumbers, etc. The salary amount indicated in the vacancies varies from 260 to 800 thousand rubles.
State Duma Defence Committee member Sobolev: Main goal of the so-called “SVO”: creating a single allied state of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.
President Xi and Chancellor Merz in a call on Friday highlighted the importance of their countries' relationship as both China and Europe are trying to tackle uncertainty caused by U.S. tariff policies. Europe and China are among the biggest trading partners of the U.S. and have deep trading ties with each other. Chinese-German trade volume alone accounted for around 246 billion euros ($279 billion) last year, according to official figures.
One of the leaders of “Coalition for Change,” Zurab “Girchi” Japaridze, has been arrested. The decision was announced by Judge Irakli Shvangiradze. He is accused of failing to pay the bail imposed for not appearing before Tsulukiani’s commission.
The EU Council will discuss suspending Hungary’s voting rights under Article 7 on May 27 over serious breaches of European values, including judicial independence and minority rights.
Brussels is preparing a “Plan B” to launch EU accession talks with Ukraine without Hungary, should Orban maintain his veto. The workaround, dubbed “parallel negotiations,” would see 26 member states move forward with Kyiv—even if unanimity isn’t reached. Possibly already by fall.
In Europe…
Donald Trump has just announced he is recommending a 50% tariff on goods from the Europen Union, from the start of next month. In another post, Trump lashed out at Apple CEO Tim Cook and is threatening a 25% tariff on “Made in India” iPhones
The EU Commission has declined to comment on Trump’s recommendation to put a 50% tariff on goods from the European Union from 1 June, Reuters reports.
And…the reaction of the markets…again…The oil price has hit a two-week low after Trump threatened hefty new tariffs on imports from the European Union. Brent crude, the international benchmark, has fallen by 1.5% to as low as $63.32 per barrel. Traders will be calculating that a US-EU trade war will hurt the global economy, leading to lower demand for energy. Stocks on the EU exchanges also tanked in reaction to the possible US tariffs.
Newsweek: Greenland has allowed a Danish-French consortium to mine a rock which is key to the production of aluminum.
The permit granted to Greenland Anorthosite Mining (GAM) to extract anorthosite follows interest in the Arctic territory from U.S. President Donald Trump in acquiring the autonomous island which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark.
GAM, which is backed by French company Jean Boulle Group and real estate investment firms bodies from Denmark and Greenland, was granted a 30-year permit, Reuters reported.
Greenland Anorthosite Mining (GAM) was granted permission to extract anorthosite, a white rock composed mainly of aluminum, micro silica, and calcium. The firm plans to ship crushed anorthosite from the west of Greenland for use by the fiberglass industry.
In announcing the 30-year permit, Greenland's Mineral Resources Minister Naaja Nathanielsen said the goal was to scale the project to become a climate-friendly alternative to bauxite in producing aluminum for aircraft, vehicles and defense.
The next step in US-Russia rapprochement may be a friendly hockey match next month in Kazan, Russia, according to local media. (After Trump-Putin call in March, Kremlin said that Trump supported Putin's proposal to hold hockey matches in US, Russia.)
The EU issued 565,069 Schengen visas to Russians in 2024, a 21% increase from the previous year, with the rejection rate dropping to 7.4%, far below the global average of rejections, which is 14.8%. Italy alone granted about 134,141—30% of the total (Of course…Italy.)
The two candidates in the Polish presidential election run-off on 1 June faced off in a televised debate last night, but last hours before the event were dominated by discussions about one of the candidate’s past involvement in football hooliganism.
Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki said that any discussion on Ukraine’s fast-tracked and “unconditional” accession to Nato was “pointless” and would put the alliance in direct conflict with Russia, as he agreed to a 90-minute YouTube interview with the libertarian far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen who came third in the first round of the vote last weekend.
Italy backs the EU’s goal to end Russian gas imports by 2027, says Energy Minister Pichetto Fratin. He added that Italy is now independent from Russian supplies and any new U.S. LNG deals are up to private buyers.
BBC News—Chagos Islands Update: The UK has signed a £3.4bn ($4.6bn) deal to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, while retaining control of a UK-US military base on Diego Garcia - the largest of the islands. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer says the 99-year agreement to lease back Diego Garcia will cost the UK £101m a year, and is necessary to protect the base from "malign influence". Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam said the agreement completed "the total process of decolonisation".
In other news…
Up-coming G7 Meeting—Top finance officials of the G7 have set aside differences on US tariffs and agreed to counter global “economic imbalances”, a swipe at China’s trade practices. Ahead of the meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors there had been doubt about whether there would be a final communique, given divisions over US tariffs and Washington’s reluctance to refer to Russia’s war on Ukraine as illegal.
The communique said the G7 members would continue to monitor “nonmarket policies and practices”, which contribute to imbalances in global trade. The statement did not mention China, but “nonmarket policies” typically refer to that country’s export subsidies and currency policies that the Trump administration says give it an advantage in international trade.
G7 leaders -in a published statement- pledge to keep Russian assets frozen until the war ends and Moscow pays for the damage.They reaffirm support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and recovery, and warn of further sanctions if Russia rejects a ceasefire.
The Cipher Brief: REPORT: U.S. CONSIDERS WITHDRAWING THOUSANDS OF TROOPS FROM SOUTH KOREA — Defense officials say the Pentagon is considering pulling around 4,500 troops from South Korea and moving them to other places in the Indo-Pacific region, including to Guam. Officials say the proposal is still under review as part of an informal look at North Korea policy.
When asked about the matter, a Pentagon spokesperson said there were no new policy announcements. National Security Council spokesman Pete Nguyen said President Trump is committed to the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula. South Korea’s defense ministry did not comment.
There are around 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea. They are seen as a deterrent against a renewed war on the Korean peninsula. In April, top U.S. military commanders warned against any drawdown of the force. Army General Xavier Brunson, commander for U.S. forces in Korea, said in a congressional testimony that “to reduce the force becomes problematic.” Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of USINDOPACOM, added: “Inherently, it would reduce our ability to prevail in conflict.”
Trump gave a gold watch to Chinese foreign national Justin Sun, who up until he invested $75M into Trump's crypto company, the SEC was investigating him for FRAUD. After then pouring $23M into Trump's meme coin, Sun got VIP ACCESS to Trump’s dinner last night where he was gifted the watch.
Harvard sues Trump administration to halt federal ban on enrolling international students. Harvard University is opening a new front in its legal battle against the Trump administration, filing suit in federal court Friday in response to the government’s move to revoke the school’s ability to enroll international students.
The complaint by the nation’s oldest and wealthiest institution of higher education argues the decision Thursday to drop the school from the Department of Homeland Security’s Student and Exchange Visitor Program violates the law.
Reuters—Shooting at CIA gates: Security guards opened fire on a young woman who ignored orders to stop and drove toward the gates of CIA headquarters at around 4 a.m. Thursday, but it’s not clear that she intended harm to anyone, Reuters reported. The incident occurred in Washington’s northern Virginia suburb of Langley. A CIA spokesperson said that security staff "engaged a person" outside the main gates and then arrested the suspect. The vehicle did not enter the CIA compound, and no security officers were hurt, the report said.
The photo that Trump showed to the President of South Africa in the Oval Office as "evidence" of a white genocide in the country was actually taken in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime—How Starlink devices are shaping conflict and crime in the Sahel.
Violent extremist groups in the Sahel, including Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), are exploiting Starlink to enhance their operational capabilities. Criminal actors are not only trafficking Starlink devices but using them to evade law enforcement and sustain illicit economies. Their ability to do so is underpinned by an illicit supply chain that allows them to obtain Starlink devices and bypass nascent regulations on their use.
The central Sahel remains the global epicentre of terrorism, accounting for 51% of global deaths caused by terrorism in 2024. After its 2023 coup, Niger experienced a 94% increase in extremist violence in 2024 — the most dramatic surge worldwide. Although the violence was concentrated in the north of the country, there are signs that it is spreading. There is reason to believe that Starlink technology is playing an important role in these groups’ operations.
Vietnam’s prime minister and Eric Trump held a groundbreaking for a $1.5B luxury golf resort near Hanoi. PM Pham Minh Chinh said Eric’s visit “motivated us to expedite this project,” and urged officials to provide maximum support to complete the 2,446-acre resort.
