EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Kharkiv was hit four times on May 25 by Russian missile strikes that have killed at least 4 killed and injured 40. The first Russian strike hit the Epicentre shopping mall (the equivalent of our Home Depot), and President Zelensky believes more than 200 people were inside the mall at the time of the strike.
The Russians also struck the centre of Kharkiv, a post office hairdresser, and a cafe were affected by a missile strike. 13 people in the city centre are known to be wounded.
Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov commented. "We have a large number of people missing. There are many wounded. Apparently, the strike was aimed at a shopping center where there were many people - this is pure terrorism."
Blinken & Sullivan: "We will do everything to make sure Ukraine has the weapons to defend its sovereign territory."
Maria Avdeeva:Everyone in Kharkiv watching this thinks, "I could have been there." Both the downtown area and Epicenter mall are crowded on Saturday afternoons.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 10, injure 48 over past day. Russian attacks against Ukraine killed at least 10 people and injured at least 48 over the past day, the vast majority of them in Kharkiv Oblast, regional officials reported early on May 24.
May 23: Russia's strike on the Kharkiv region yesterday, which killed and injured people, destroyed a publishing facility, Vivat, and burned 50,000 books, demonstrates that Russia is at war with humanity and all aspects of normal life. ADD INFO
Zelensky visits Kharkiv printing house destroyed in Russian attack. "Yesterday, a Russian missile strike killed seven people here," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a post on social media, adding: "My condolences go out to their families and friends. Twenty-one people were injured."
Ukraine announces mandatory evacuation for 123 children from Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian authorities ordered the evacuation of 123 children from 36 settlements in the country's northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, the Reintegration Ministry announced on May 24.
Combat Situation Update
Syrskyi: Russia 'completely bogged down' in Vovchansk street fighting, deploys reserves. Russian troops are "completely bogged down" in street battles for the town of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast, having suffered "very heavy losses," Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said on May 23.
May 24: Ukrainian forces take back control near state border in Kharkiv Oblast. During the visit to Kharkiv, Zelensky met with the Ukrainian military and listened to reports from local authorities and representatives of special services.
General Staff: Russian troops halted in Kharkiv sector, Ukraine conducts counterattacks. Ukrainian forces halted Russian troops in the Kharkiv sector and are conducting counteroffensive actions, Ihor Prokhorenko, a representative of the Main Operational Directorate of Ukraine's General Staff, said at a briefing in Kyiv on May 24.
Ukrainian forces inside Vovchansk. "We are holding on. We won't give up. Lyut Assault Brigade is here, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are here. We are holding on and won't let our land be beaten."
Military: Russian troops trying to advance near Chasiv Yar but haven't entered town. The Russian troops are trying to advance near Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, but they have not entered the town, Kyrylo Sazonov, a soldier of the 41st separate mechanized brigade, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's (RFE/RL) on May 23.
The Economist: NATO chief Stoltenberg called on NATO allies supplying weapons to Ukraine to end their prohibition on using them to strike military targets in Russia.
May 24: several explosionswere reported in Yalta, Alushta, Dzhankoy, Simferopol and Yevpatoria, Russian occupied Crimea.
The ATESH partisan movement in occupied Crimea reports that Russian troops are evacuating personnel from Dzhankoy and are actively rebuilding and possibly modernizing airfields deeper in the peninsula, specifically at Kirovske and Baherovo. These actions suggest that Russia aims to disperse their troops and equipment in anticipation of future successful Ukrainian attacks.
Media confirmed: Ukrainian drone attack damages 2 Russian aircraft in Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainian forces damaged two Russian aircraft in Russia's Krasnodar Krai with drones overnight on May 19, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported, citing satellite imagery by Planet Labs.
Partisans: Attack on occupied Crimea damages communications equipment, casualties reported. An attack on Russian communications hub in the city of Alushta in occupied Crimea has caused "significant damage to equipment," with numerous casualties reported, the partisan group Atesh claimed on May 24.
A relay cabinet on the railroad in Yaroslavl, Russia, was sabotaged causing malfunctions at the Polyanki railway station. Yaroslavl is a key logistics hub for Russian military operations. Additionally, smoke was seen rising over Novofedorivka in occupied Crimea, close to Saky Air Base.
May 25: Ukrainian strikes on Saki Air Base in occupied Crimea continue today.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia deploys its Africa Corps for Kharkiv Oblast offensive. Moscow deployed units from the Russian Defense Ministry's Africa Corps to fight alongside Russia's regular army and Storm-Z units comprised of convicts to attack the town of Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast over the past week, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on May 24.
Troops in Russia’s Southern Military District have begun the first stage of drills to test the preparation and use of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons. The exercises include practice receiving ammunition for the Iskander missile system, equipping missile carriers, and covertly advancing the weapons to positions for missile launch preparations. During these exercises, Russia’s Aerospace Forces will drill equipping warplanes with hypersonic missiles and patrolling designated areas. Moscow says the unscheduled exercises are a response to “provocative and threatening” remarks by Western officials about sending more advanced weapons (and possibly even NATO-member soldiers) to Ukraine.
Dr Ben Schmitt: I spoke with VOA News about what we know about the reported launch of Kosmos-2576, a Russian Nivelir-L class “inspector” satellite likely shadowing US Government satellite USA-314 & that the Pentagon has described as a Kremlin orbital counterspace weapon:
Behind the Lines
The Washington Post: Some U.S.-made satellite-guided ammunitions in Ukraine have failed to withstand Russian jamming technology. Among those affected are Excalibur 155mm shells, JDAM-ER, M30/M31 and GLSDB. For JDAM's, a patch has been applied that makes future use possible.
The Financial Times: Viktor Orbán’s Hungary is holding up legislation that would enable Ukraine to receive up to €2bn for weapons from the EU, in a blow to efforts to mobilise profits from Russian assets frozen under sanctions.
Border creep: Estonian authorities say Russian border guard removed river border markers from Estonian territory. Eerik Purgel, head of the PPA's Eastern Prefecture, said that Estonian and Russian authorities install the buoys that separate the territories on a yearly basis in order to ease navigation on the river and prevent fishermen and others from accidentally straying across the border.
UK man arrested on suspicion of helping Russian intelligence. A British man has been charged with assisting Russia’s intelligence service after being arrested by UK counter-terrorism police.
Howard Michael Phillips, of Harlow, in Essex, was charged on Thursday with an offence contrary to section 3 of the National Security Act (NSA), the Metropolitan police said. The 64-year-old appeared at Westminster magistrates court in London on Thursday afternoon and spoke to confirm his address and date of birth. The prosecutor, Mark Luckett, said Phillips had contact with someone “who he believed were foreign powers”. He said Phillips held “sensitive information in regards to an MP”.
This is what the Russians are doing in the occupied territories with the children of Ukraine: they are training them to become Russian fighters. There are no words to express what I feel towards those who continue to press for a ‘negotiated peace’ with the Kremlin. These same children will one day be called to kill their own people if they are not liberated.
Russia arrested two more top Defense Ministry officials on May 23 in what appears to be a widening anti-corruption sweep. Four generals are now in pre-trial detention on felony charges, with three accused of taking multimillion-ruble bribes and the fourth suspected of large-scale fraud. The arrests have coincided with the ouster of longtime Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, who lost his post earlier this month to Andrey Belousov, a former deputy prime minister who specializes in economics. Speaking to journalists on May 23, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov rebuffed questions about a “purge” of the Defense Ministry. Here’s what we know about the arrests so far.
Diversionary tactics by the Kremlin: Several anonymous sources told Reuters that Putin is seeking to negotiate a ceasefire along the current battlefield lines. At the same time, the Kremlin has increased armaments production and has signed numerous contracts with China. What exactly the Kremlin means when it speaks of ‘freezing’ the conflict and ‘seeking negotiations’ cannot be gleaned from its statements. More on this in future posts.
Reminder:Putin signs decree authorizing confiscation of US companies, individuals in retaliatory measure. The decree would enable Russian citizens, companies, and the central bank to appeal to courts that the seizure of their assets is unjustified. In turn, the Russian government could offer U.S. assets in Russia as compensation.
G7 finance ministers have backed the idea of providing Ukraine with a loan secured by the proceeds of frozen Russian assets to provide financing for Kyiv after 2024.
Russia is likely to keep banking on various coercion tactics to bolster its military manpower in Ukraine, experts say, a strategy that has proven effective at ensuring a continuous supply of fresh recruits to the front lines for the past two years.
“The tactics of luring [men] into signing a contract change constantly,” said Ivan Chuvilyaev of Idite Lesom (Get Lost), a civic initiative helping Russian conscientious objectors. “I would compare it with [repeatedly] throwing a net to check who can get caught in it.”
Russian military volunteers are promised a monthly salary upwards of 200,000 rubles ($2,100) upon enlisting, at least three times higher than the national average.
For many men — particularly those from economically disadvantaged regions — these sums of money and social benefit packages are a good enough reason to go to war.
The Kremlin will continue to recruit, and is not curtailed by the number of killed in aciton or injured duing the war. The more the merrier: the Kremlin will use these numbers to erect monuments across in Moscow and St Petersburg. What does throw a spanner in the works is the labour shortage, and increased labour costs. Keep your eye on the story about concentration camps that are being built in Russia. The use of forced labour was initiated by the Germans during the First World War, but was perfected under the Soviet regime under the direction of the Cheka.
Rosneft asks Kremlin to compensate for costs of protecting oil refineries from drones. The CEO of Russia's state-controlled oil company, Rosneft, sent a letter to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin asking the Kremlin to approve tax breaks to offset the cost of preventing drone attacks on the company's oil refineries, Russian state-controlled media reported on May 23.
Police have arrested Major General Ivan Popov, the former commander of Russia’s 58th Army. According to rumors on Telegram, he is suspected of fraud that caused more than 100 million rubles ($1.1 million) in damages. Two other reported suspects in the case are a Krasnodar-based businessman and a Southern Military District officer. Telegram channels say the major general will be charged with selling roughly 2,000 metric tons of metal products intended for the construction of fortifications to defend occupying Russian troops in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, where Popov served.
Gerasimov's deputy detained over suspected bribery. Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin, the deputy chief of the Russian Armed Forces' General Staff and head of the Main Directorate of Communications, was detained for allegedly receiving a large bribe, the Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti reported on May 23, citing a court statement.
Chechnya Governor Ramzan Kadyrov has appointed his eldest son Akhmat to serve as the republic’s minister of physical fitness and sports. For the previous three months, 18-year-old Akhmat Kadyrov served as Chechnya’s youth affairs minister — a position that now falls to Ramzan Vismuradov, one of Ramzan Kadyrov’s sons-in-law and the son of a commander of Chechnya’s “Terek” special rapid response unit.
The Moscow City Court has rejected a lawsuit from imprisoned opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza accusing federal investigators of failure to act in response to two attempts on his life. Kara-Murza survived two poisonings, one in 2015 and another in 2017, which journalists at Bellingcat and The Insider have tied to the same FSB group that allegedly poisoned Alexey Navalny with Novichok.
Moscow and Washington continue to play resolution games at the U.N. Security Council,which rejected a Russian-drafted text calling on all countries to prevent "for all time" the placement, threat, or use of any weapons in outer space. The resolution even failed to get the minimum nine votes needed for a veto, which Russia slapped on an American resolution last month calling on countries to prevent an arms race in outer space. Washington has accused Moscow of launching a satellite into low Earth orbit that “is likely a counter-space weapon presumably capable of attacking other satellites in low Earth orbit.” Russia has insisted that the 1967 Outer Space Treaty already bars signatories from placing such weapons in orbit around the Earth.
FT: EU seeks to stop Russian imports of Western luxury cars via Belarus. The European Union is considering imposing sanctions on Belarus as a way to close a trade loophole that has allowed Russia to import luxury cars and other banned goods produced in Western countries, the Financial Times reported on May 23.
Allied Support
NYT: Blinken favors lifting ban on Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with US arms. After his "sobering visit" to Kyiv, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken wants the White House to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russian territory with American-supplied arms, The New York Times (NYT) reported on May 22, citing undisclosed official sources.
Jens Stoltenberg has called on Nato allies who supply arms to Ukraine to end the ban on using them to strike military targets in Russia, but Italy opposes allowing Ukraine to attack Russia with Western weapons, says Deputy Prime Minister Salvini.
Salvini’s position reflects his attempts since 2014 to bring Italian foreign policy in line with Russia in opposition to Italy’s long-standing relationship within the NATO Alliance and the Transatlantic partnership. An exposé in 2019 brought to light the League’s schemes with Russia to secure funding for the party. Salvini and the League have yet to be investigated fully for these allegations.
A lecture with Nathalie Vogel at the 13th Annual Kosciuszko Chair Symposium : The role of counter-intelligence in countering hybrid threats.
German defense minister: Ukraine receives another Iris-T air defense system from Germany. "We have once again delivered Iris-T SLM and Iris-T SLS combined fire unit to Ukraine – a highly modern and well-proven medium and short-range air defense system, directly from German industry production," Boris Pistorius said.
Politico: Zelensky to visit France, Italy, urge NATO to down Russian missiles over Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky is planning to visit the D-Day commemoration in France and a G7 meeting in Italy in June to ask partners for more military aid, Politico reported on May 22, citing two undisclosed sources.
Readout: Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on May 24.
Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Baerbock reaffirmed support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s aggression and discussed challenges posed by the People’s Republic of China, including the PRC’s support for Russia’s defense industrial base. The Secretary and the Foreign Minister also discussed efforts to achieve a ceasefire that would secure the release of hostages and facilitate increased deliveries of humanitarian assistance in Gaza. They agreed on the importance of preventing an escalation of conflict in the Middle East and the threat posed by Iran.
"If you want to be in our community, including to benefit from things like where your kids go to school, then you have to start acting like a member of that community.”
“It's clear what the Georgian people want. It's also clear what the policy of the Georgian government is."
"It's unfortunate that a set of specific actions recently, particularly violence and threats to civil society and occasionally opposition politicians, a law that's intended to stigmatize the very groups that help Georgia prepare for its European and transatlantic aspirations, that these specific actions have led us to question whether the current leadership is interested in moving forward."
"So our focus is on the specific actions that they are taking and the hope that they will realize that their own people want to be sure that they continue on the path toward Europe and NATO"
On Gerogia: "We are at a stage where after several years of consolidation, of people recognizing that they are more safe and more prosperous if they join European and transatlantic organizations, it's not a surprise that there are elements in some societies that feel that this forces them to change because they've risen to the top at a point when those societies were not integrating."
(May 24 protests in Tblisi)
So we think we are reaffirming our Georgia policy." "We support Georgia's reforms and integration into the EU and NATO. That was a major message of my visit last week. We feel that this particular law, the rhetoric that surrounds it and the violence against protesters are all inconsistent with the choice of moving forward to the EU and NATO. And I had very detailed conversations with representatives of the government, including the prime minister and foreign minister, about the specific ways in which the proposed law we think is incompatible with the path that Georgia has set for itself. And the Venice Commission, so the body in Europe that comments on these laws, came out with a very strong opinion this week making the same point. So this is a matter of whether the Georgian, the leadership of the Georgian government is trying to change what it means to join European and transatlantic organizations, not whether our policy is changing."
As for the question about whether this is coercion, no, it's a simple point, Amb O’Brien says. He went on to explain:
"If you say you want to join a football match, you don't get to say that but our side will play with 15 people and you will play with seven, or we will play with an extra ball. You play by the rules of the club you are trying to join."
"And the point is that the actions being taken are incompatible with both the pursuit of membership and actually getting to membership. And this, we would like to have had technical routine conversations because the issues raised are issues every country faces and tends to deal with in a normal way."
"The actions of particular concern to us, though, involve violence and intimidation of people who do not support the government and putting in place legal frameworks that are incompatible with the aspirations the government was elected to carry out. That's a very different conversation than the way that the leadership of Georgian Dream has decided to portray it."
"As far as our additional actions, the secretary noted that we are reviewing all the cooperation we have and I'm not going to preview additional specific actions," Assistant Secretary Jim O’Brien, European Affairs at the State Department, said, and added
"I'll make a technical point under the announcement of yesterday, we do not publish a list of names. It's not what that statutory authority allows us to do, but we've made clear the sorts of acts that are of particular concern to us and it's the effort to undermine democratic processes, in particular the use of violence and intimidation against those who come. And, you know, the way that the statute works, it's not only the officials, but it's their family members. And that, again, is not a coercive tactic."
VSquare: BUDAPEST–BEIJING SECURITY PACT COVERTLY INCLUDES CHINESE SURVEILLANCE TECHNOLOGY
Szabolcs Panyi: A new security pact between Hungary and the People's Republic of China (PRC) allows for Chinese law enforcement officers to conduct patrols within Hungary—which is to say, within a European Union member state. Chinese dissidents living in the EU fear that the PRC may abuse this agreement: Chinese policemen “can even go to European countries to perform secret missions and arbitrarily arrest dissidents,” as I reported in a previous Goulash newsletter.
According to reliable sources familiar with recent Chinese-Hungarian negotiations, a provision permits the PRC to deploy surveillance cameras equipped with advanced AI capabilities, such as facial recognition software, on Hungarian territory.
The Orbán government already maintains a significant surveillance infrastructure, including CCTV systems, and there are indications that, besides the Pegasus spyware, they may have acquired Israeli-developed facial recognition technology as well. Nevertheless, allowing the PRC to establish their own surveillance apparatus within Hungary raises distinct concerns. Even if purportedly intended to monitor Chinese investments, institutions, and personnel, the potential involvement of Chinese technology firms, some of which have ties to the People’s Liberation Army or Chinese intelligence and are subject to Western sanctions, could complicate Hungary's relations with its NATO allies.
Russia going forward with investments in Hungarian nuclear Paks programme
Russia’s nuclear industry is not yet under EU sanctions, and as a result, Rosatom’s Hungarian nuclear power plant project, Paks II, is still moving forward. While construction of the plant faces numerous regulatory hurdles, significant Russian involvement is anticipated in the city of Paks. A source directly engaged in the project revealed that the current contingent of Rosatom personnel and other Russian "experts" working on Paks II is projected to double or even triple in the coming year. "Presently, approximately 400 Russians are engaged in the Paks project, with expectations for this figure to surpass 1,000 by 2025," the source disclosed.
The staunchly anti-immigration Orbán government recently granted exemptions for "migrant workers" involved in both the Russian Paks II and the Chinese Belt and Road projects, such as the Budapest-Belgrade railway reconstruction, allowing them to obtain 5-year residency permits more easily.
Central European security experts I’ve asked view the anticipated influx of Russian – and Chinese – workers into Hungary as a security concern for the entire region. Specifically, there are fears that Russia might deploy numerous new undercover intelligence operatives to the Paks II project, who could subsequently traverse other Schengen zone countries with ease.
Politico: Putin hijacked Austria’s spy service. Now he's going after its government
The coup began with the sound of a doorbell.
Just after 8 a.m. on Feb. 28, 2018, Austrian police Commander Wolfgang Preiszler pressed the buzzer at the headquarters of the country’s domestic intelligence service and held his ID up to the security camera.
Within minutes, dozens of his colleagues armed with Glock pistols and a battering ram fanned out through the building in bullet-proof vests and balaclavas, seizing confidential data stored on the agency’s servers and sensitive documents lying on desks.
The incursion — pitting the police against the spy service, known as the BVT — unleashed a firestorm that shattered Austria’s reputation in the intelligence world and led to the agency’s closure.
More than six years later, the true scope of what transpired that day is only now coming into focus. Intelligence officials tell POLITICO that new evidence suggests the raid was part of a Moscow-led operation to discredit Austria’s spy services in order to rebuild them with new leadership under the Kremlin’s influence. Crucial to that effort, they say, was the junior partner in the government coalition at the time: the far-right, pro-Russia Freedom Party (FPÖ), which today is the most popular party in the country.
Last month, Austrian prosecutors revealed that the men believed to have laid the groundwork for the action were Russian agents directed by Jan Marsalek, the fugitive former chief operating officer of the collapsed payment processing firm Wirecard, who authorities say works for Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency.
AFP: France's president made a long-haul trip to the restive Pacific territory of New Caledonia on Thursday, urging a "return to peace" after deadly rioting. He vowed thousands of military reinforcements will be deployed for "as long as necessary" to quell the "unprecedented insurrection".
Macron arrived in the capital Noumea after a 24-hour flight seeking ways to end more than a week of looting, arson and clashes that have left six people dead and hundreds injured. The unrest erupted over a French voting reform plan that indigenous Kanaks say will dilute their voice.
Politico: French President Emmanuel Macron wants a top job in Brussels for Italy's former Prime Minister Mario Draghi— it's just a matter of figuring out the right role. One of the biggest strategic questions around the EU election on June 6-9 is whether France will back a second term for Germany's Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission while relations between Paris and Berlin are frosty.
But it's the first time a French official has publicly endorsed him for a top job in Brussels.
Crucially, France is ideologically aligned with Draghi, who would not want fiscal rules to thwart generous spending on remolding the European economy. Indeed, the former central banker is seen as a key ally in Paris' next fight within the bloc: finding trillions of euros of public investment to catch up with the industrial superpowers: China and the U.S.
"He has the credibility to try and convince [other countries] of the capacity for long-term investment and the need for common investments, which is a huge challenge," Canfin said.
AdF booted out: The organizers of Thursday’s Eurovision debate in the European Parliament (not the singing version, unfortunately) didn’t invite a representative of any far-right group to their big event, claiming they didn’t meet the technical criteria for admission. But that didn’t stop the far right from being ubiquitous on and off the debate stage, after the Identity and Democracy party voted to give Alternative for Germany (AfD) the boot.
The far right might have been denied entry to the debate, but it didn’t stay quiet. Outside, members of Alliance for the Union of Romanians, a right-wing populist group, were protesting in yellow jerseys. And Identity and Democracy — the pan-European faction that includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally — were getting ready to overshadow the whole production by expelling the AfD.
