May 26: E-Stories
Day 457: UASitRep Naryshkin Kasputin MAKS Belarus Crimea Kucherenko EurasiaEco expulsions US LITH DEN Greece EU A&P Moscow UKDef ISW Sumlenny EuropeElects Zakaria Schmitt Piangnerelli Cocoran Sweeney
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
In Moscow on May 24 during the night, smoke near the building of the Ministry of Defense.
Stories we’re following…
Zelensky: First F-16 fighter jet in Ukraine 'will be one of the strongest signals from the world'. In his nightly address on May 24, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the first F-16 fighter jet delivered to Ukraine "will be one of the strongest signals from the world" that Russia is "only becoming weaker and more isolated."
Russian forces unleashed 35 drones against Kyiv in its 12th nighttime air assault on the Ukrainian capital this month, but the city’s air defences shot all of them down, Ukrainian authorities claimed on Thursday.
The National Guard reports the destruction of one and damage to another Russian Su-25 attack aircraft on the Zaporizhzhia front— National Guard of Ukraine’s press service.
The Russian forces are currently focusing its main efforts on defensive operations across all fronts and conducting localized attacks in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions. Russian military shelled nine regions of Ukraine over the past day (May 24), according to the consolidated report of the regional military administrations.
Several loud explosions were heard in Russian-occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, on Thursday evening as reported by eye witnesses on Telegram and Vladimir Rogov, Russian-installed head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
In the suburbs of Bakhmut, Wagner PMC units were replaced with regular troops, while Wagnerites remain in the city itself, as reported by Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Anna Malyar. “Our troops control the outskirts of the city in the southwestern part in the Airplane area,” Malyar said. According to her, in the Bakhmut direction, Russian forces are trying to stop the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the flanks with artillery shelling.
The Russian forces are actively mining the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and installing barriers to obstruct boats and other watercraft. Additionally, they are constructing new fortifications in Crimea along roads leading to the peninsula.
Ukrainian Defensive Forces have advanced 200-400 meters on the flanks around Bakhmut and continue to control a number of buildings and fortifications in the southwestern part of Bakhmut. They have also made progress near Yahidne and repelled enemy attacks near Avdiivka, in the areas of Novokalynove, Severne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, and Maryinka.
Sergei Naryshkin, Russia's top intelligence official, has accused the Anglo-Saxons (a term Russia uses to refer to the West) of continuously expanding NATO, obstructing efforts to achieve a settlement in the conflict, and turning a blind eye to the growing "terrorism and violence" inflicted upon civilians by Ukraine.
Naryshkin further delved into pseudo-religious and philosophical speculations, asserting that Russia, "unlike the West, has preserved a significant margin of strength and strategic depth in this respect. I mean a connection with the spiritual dimension of existence, traditions which in the United States and Europe long ago gave way to positivism, the cult of material success, and outright Satanism."
The press service of Yevgeny Prigozhin published a video in which the founder of the Wagner PMC in Bakhmut announces the start of the withdrawal of mercenaries from the city. Prigozhin says that Wagner PMC units are going to completely leave Bakhmut by June 1 and give way to regular units.
Seven battalions of territorial defense with a total strength of 3,000 people were deployed on the border with Ukraine in the Belgorod region after the penetration of a group of saboteurs on tanks, Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said, but they don’t have weapons. Now the authorities of the region are looking for ways to provide them with weapons. The State Duma urged "immediately" to distribute weapons to the residents of the border regions.
Ilario Piangnerelli: “We met the "Russian partisans" of the Volunteer Corps and the Free Russia Legion who had just returned from the Belgorod blitz. "Mission accomplished, only two wounded, we are working on phase two, Putin was in shock, we will put an end to his regime and to the war".
Denis Kapustin, who described himself as the commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps, spoke to reporters on the Ukrainian side of the border with Russia a day after Moscow said it had repelled the raid on the Belgorod region.
“I think you will see us again on that side,” said Kapustin, who introduced himself by his call-sign White Rex. “I cannot reveal those upcoming things, I cannot even reveal the direction. The ... border is pretty long. Yet again there will be a spot where things will get hot.”
The International Aviation and Space Salon MAKS, which was supposed to be held on July 25-30 in Zhukovsky, near Moscow, has been canceled, a source in the organizing committee told TASS. Since the 1990s, the air show has been held every two years at the airfield of the Gromov Flight Research Institute.
Political scientist Tatiana Stanovaya suggests that behind Putin’s silence is the expectation that external foreign policy dynamics will change in his favor, which would allow him to go back to discussing the Kremlin’s strategic goals. While we shouldn’t call the Russian president’s expectations completely unfounded, it’s possible that Russia’s political class could soon lose their patience with Putin’s passive approach.
Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president, confirmed on Thursday that the relocation of some tactical nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus had already started, the Russian state-owned news agency Tass reports.
Russia and Belarus, which are creating the so-called Union State with a single political, military and economic space as well as one nuclear weapon for two of them, pose a certain problem for other states of the Eurasian Economic Union, said Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the President of Kazakhstan.
"We have a union state in the EAEU. That is, a unique precedent or phenomenon has been created in world political history... the creation of a state based on the formula ‘two countries − one state’ with a single political, legal, military, economic, currency, cultural and humanitarian space, with a single union government, with a single union parliament... And even nuclear weapons are now one for two.
Polish General-eyes on Belarus: "Let's prepare for the uprising in Belarus because it will happen. You have to be ready to support the troops that will carry out the operation against Lukashenko," former commander of the Polish Ground Forces General Waldemar Skrzypczak said.
He believes that if the Ukrainian counter-offensive succeeds, the armed Belarusians who are serving in the Ukrainian military will not disarm. The Polish general believes that the Belarusian people will support the volunteers who are currently fighting on the Ukrainian side and "will go against Lukashenka with enthusiasm."
Reuters: Kyiv investigating Belarus' potential involvement in child abductions. The Prosecutor General's Office told Reuters on May 24 that Ukraine was investigating Belarus' possible role in the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied territories.
Crimean Tatar activist Ruslan Liumanov has disappeared in the occupied Crimea, and nothing has been known about him since yesterday (24 May – ed.), as reported by journalist Elvina Seitbulaieva on Facebook. According to his wife, the man has not been in contact with her since then. Liumanov is the father of 5 children.
The US ambassador to Ukraine has criticised Russia over its implementation of the newly extended Black Sea grain initiative. Bridget Brink wrote on Twitter:
After repeated threats to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russia now refuses to allow any of the waiting 28 ships into Pivdennyi, one of the three ports designated by the agreement for food exports – a clear violation of their commitment. Russia must stop obstructing the operations of this life-saving initiative.
On May 20, Russia’s deputy science minister, Pyotr Kucherenko, 46, fell ill on a flight from Cuba and died after an emergency landing. After Putin invaded Ukraine last year, Kucherenko described it privately to a journalist as ‘this fascist invasion’. John Sciutto cites journalist Roman Super said on Telegram that Kucherenko encouraged him to leave Russia last year saying, "Save yourself and your family. Leave as soon as possible. You cannot imagine the degree of brutalization of our state. In a year you won't recognize Russia at all.”
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that it had summoned the ambassadors of Germany, Sweden and Denmark to protest over what it said was the “complete lack of results” of an investigation into blasts that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September last year.
Putin held the Eurasian Economic meeting on May 25. The Kremlin's plans to strengthen the zone of influence in the post-Soviet space and to assemble an analogue of the "new USSR" from the loyal republics continue to meet with the resistance of the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Kazakhstan considers the EAEU exclusively as an economic bloc, and any integration within its framework should be "primarily economic in nature," Tokayev said at a plenary session of the second Eurasian Economic Forum.
Five Swedish diplomats to be expelled from Russia. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Consulate General of the Russian Federation in Gothenburg will be closed from September 1. The Russian side also withdraws its consent to the activities of the Consulate General of Sweden in St. Petersburg. In addition, Moscow has declared five Swedish diplomats persona non grata, including three members of the Defense Attache at the Swedish Embassy in Moscow. They must leave the Russian Federation.
Georgian PM against restricting trade with Russia. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili criticized efforts to restrict trade between Georgia and Russia during an interview at the Qatar Economic Forum on May 24.
US approves $285 million sale of NASAMS air defense system to Ukraine. In a move to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities against potential Russian threats, the United States has authorized the sale of a NASAMS air defense system and associated equipment worth $285 million to Kyiv.
US lawmakers urge Biden to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. U.S. lawmakers from both political parties sent a letter to U.S. President Joe Biden urging him to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, according to a May 23 press release from Congressman Adam Schiff's office.
WSJ: After much resistance and a request from the US, South Korea has begun to transfer hundreds of thousands of artillery shells to Ukraine. The shipment is being made through the United States. According to a confidential agreement, South Korea is handing over the shells to the United States, which in turn arranged for them to be shipped to Ukraine.
A massive political scandal over politicians’ expenses has gripped Lithuania, just as the country gears up to host the NATO summit in July. The affair centers on expenses filed by municipal council members from different parties — who don’t receive a fixed salary, but have used the expenses system in creative ways, according to reports in Lithuanian media, which cited examples such as travel costs claimed during the strictest phase of the COVID lockdown. The scandal has snowballed, embroiling three government ministers who are accused of having abused expenses.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has emerged as a serious contender to lead NATO after current boss Jens Stoltenberg steps down in September, after she received a coveted invitation to visit the White House, as reported by Politico.
Greece will be voting again on June 25. This is a poll taken on May 23.
The European Council has decided to extend temporary trade liberalization for Ukrainian products for another year. The full abolition of duties and quotas has been extended until June 2024.
Trade ministers from across the EU gathered in Brussels on May 25 to hash out the political direction for the bloc’s trade policy. They’re set to discuss relations with Washington and Beijing, and the World Trade Organization’s next ministerial conference. The China discussion will be a litmus test for the extent to which EU countries want to fall into line with Washington when it comes to tough rhetoric toward Beijing. Beijing’s massive subsidies and its aggressive industrial strategy are increasingly becoming a risk to the EU’s business model, as China now a serious competitor in one of Europe’s most lucrative and important industries — car-making.
Has the Ukrainian counteroffensive started?
That’s the question I’m hearing from various quarters. Some confirm and some deny.
In an interview with RAI News, Mykhailo Podoliak, Advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, has said that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is underway.
"The counter-offensive has been going on for several days now, it's an intensive war along 1,500 kilometres of border, but the action has begun."
We do not want to strike the Russian territory, we will use the weapons you have provided us to target Russian positions in the territories occupied by Moscow, including Donbas and Crimea."
Budanov added that Ukraine was making use of three ‘tools’ to stop the Russian Federation: 1) encouraging more incisive sanctions on Russia’s energy sector; 2) increase arms procurement from the allies; and 3) create a negative image about the regime for Russian domestic audiences so that they can see the truth about the war.
John Sweeney reporting from Kyiv says that the counteroffensive proper may not begin until the winter.
Myhailo Podolyak, adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, posted this on Twitter:
Once again about the counteroffensive. Without further questions.
1. This is not a "single event" that will begin at a specific hour of a specific day with a solemn cutting of the red ribbon.
2. These are dozens of different actions to destroy the Russian occupation forces in different directions, which have already been taking place yesterday, are taking place today and will continue tomorrow.
3. Intensive destruction of enemy logistics is also a counteroffensive.
Fareed Zakaria: How will the war end?
What’s the mood in Kyiv, as a counteroffensive seems to be pending? Part 1 of my conversation with AEI’s Kori Schake and CFR’s Gideon Rose, from today’s show:
Meduza, “We do not look Russians in the eye”
How is life now in the Ukrainian territories, which have been under Russian occupation for more than a year? Residents of Berdyansk, Melitopol and Mariupol tell
Berdyansk. “It’s as if we were microchipped with these Russian passports, and now they will just hide behind us”
Time in Berdyansk seemed to freeze at the beginning of the war, says 28-year-old Lilia. Many of the girl’s entourage left a long time ago, she herself stayed and says that there are fewer and fewer familiar faces in the city, but there are many strangers.
As I understand it, the majority are migrants from Donetsk, Luhansk regions, Mariupol. And a lot of military men in civilian clothes. You can’t confuse them with anyone: you can see it by the structure of the body, and the eyes are speaking. There are a lot of them in the city center and on the spit , where recreation centers were converted to suit their needs. People are silent on this topic, but there are still a lot of checks in garages, microdistricts in the city, they are looking for something, someone - some kind of terrorists.
Even the occupation authorities issued a decree banning the sale of alcohol, right up to August 1. They say the military drink heavily and create problems. In general , since they entered , the situation has not changed much. Nothing happens, this groundhog day is depressing: it seems that it will never end.
Programming note…
Berlin police are investigating the possible poisoning of two Russian exiles who attended a conference in the German capital.