May 27: Saturday Stories
Day 458: Avdiivka Mar'inka Dnipro Kharkiv Gazprom IvanKhurs Krasnador Crimea Karlivskyi RUdomestic Yermak CN Milley US Ramstein CND Rhodes Guam A&Ps Plokhty Shoshiashvili UKDef Greene Lucas Tenzer
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Maps matter.
Stories we’re following…
The Russian military is focusing its main efforts on defensive operations across all directions, trying to complete the capture of Avdiivka and Maryinka. They are conducting local attacks to enhance their tactical position in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Shakhtarsk areas.
The Russian military command maintains a high intensity of airstrikes along the entire line of combat engagement; the enemy aviation is most active in the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Avdiivka directions.
Two people have been killed and 30 injured in a Russian attack this morning on an outpatient clinic in the city of Dnipro. Dnipro had been subjected to overnight attacks. Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot down 10 missiles and 25 drones sent into their territory by Russia.
There was a mixed attack at night when Ukrainian air defence forces shot down five Russian cruise missiles and six Shahed attack UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a household, two private enterprises and a gas station were damaged in Dnipro.
The Russian army attacked the cities of Merefa and Izium in Kharkiv Oblast with Shahed attack drones on the night of 25-26 May, as reported by Oleh Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, on Telegram. An oil refinery was the target in Merefa. Overnight, Russia launched a total of 17 missiles of various types and 31 attack drones. Ukraine’s air defence downed 10 cruise missiles, 23 Shahed drones.
From the diary of a Ukrainian soldier in the special forces in Bakhmut, May 26, 2023.
In the coming 10-14 days, the "Wagner" PMC detachments are expected to be replaced by troops from the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army in the Bakhmut area. The "Akhmat-Vostok" Chechen unit operates near Kreminna.
Russian Higher Military Academies cadets are currently training near the Ukraine border. The training is taking place in the Kursk and Bryansk regions at the deployment points of units from the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army of the Western Military District, the 76th Air Assault Division of the Airborne Troops.
A drone dropped explosives on the premises of Gazprom, a Russian state-owned energy corporation, in Belgorod Oblast, Russia, as reported by Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov on Telegram on May 26.
Defense Ministry confirms Ukrainian drone attack on Russian Black Sea warship. With a video published on Twitter on May 25, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry confirmed that an attack on the Russian military's Ivan Khurs warship was carried out with Ukrainian drones. One drone did hit the Ivan Khurs.
A blast that damaged a residential and office building housing Mobile TeleSystem in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar, east of Crimea, on Friday was caused by two drones, Reuters reports.
The Russian military is using drones like the Shaheds to distract and identify Ukraine's air defense systems, military spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk said on television on May 26. Subsequently, Russia tries to target them with ballistic missiles, according to Humeniuk, head of the press center of the Southern Operational Command.
The Russian invaders have destroyed the dam of the Karlivskyi reservoir in Donetsk Oblast; due to this, posing a severe risk of flooding to the villages of Halytsynivka, Zhelanne-1, and Zhelanne-2. Pavlo Kyrylenko, the head of the Donetsk regional military administration, reported.
Kalashnikov, maker of the world’s most widely used assault rifle, said today it was launching a new division for the production of kamikaze drones – one of the key weapons used in the Ukraine war, Reuters reports. Putin has called for a rise in production of drones. First Deputy prime minister Andrei Belousov said that by the end of 2026, Russia should be able to make 18,000 drones a year.
Lloyd's Register drops ships of top Indian carrier of Russian oil. Lloyd's Register has told India's Gatik Ship Management, which has become a major carrier of Russian oil since the Ukraine war, that it will withdraw certification of 21 of its vessels by June 3, the maritime services company told Reuters.
The United Arab Emirates has become a key trade hub for Russian gold since Western sanctions over Ukraine cut Russia's more traditional export routes, customs records show. The records reveal the names of over 100 non-Russian companies that have handled gold since Western markets banned imports from Moscow.
Zelensky names new SBU deputy head, dismisses regional chief. President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Serhii Naumiuk as the deputy head of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU). He also dismissed the SBU's head in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Taras Tsiutsiura. No information on the nature of Tsiutsiura's dismissal was provided.
Andriy Yermak: no force will make Ukraine negotiate with Russia until Russian troops are withdrawn from Ukrainian territory; no mediation is needed as it does not work.
Yermak said this to the Chinese and Brazilian emissaries. He also said that Ukraine needs no mediation since it already had negotiations with Russia in the Normandy format and knows this does not work. He also stressed that "Ukraine has its own peace plan, and we think it is fair - if the war continues on our territory, then the Ukrainian plan should be the basis of the settlement."
Chinese Foreign Ministry Special Representative Li Hui visited the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow on Friday. The diplomat tours Russia, Ukraine and European countries, proposing a Chinese plan for a "political solution to the Ukrainian crisis." As reported, it has 12 points , including a ceasefire, respect for the sovereignty of all countries and an end to unilateral sanctions.
Foreign Minister Lavrov told China’s special envoy Li Hui today that there were “serious obstacles” to resuming peace talks, blaming Ukraine and western countries, AFP reports. Lavrov added:
Both sides expressed readiness to further strengthen Russian-Chinese foreign policy cooperation, invariably aimed at maintaining peace and stability in the region and on the planet as a whole.
Top US general: Russia cannot win in Ukraine militarily. U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, said that Russia can no longer achieve victory over Ukraine through military means. In turn, Ukraine is capable of liberating all of its territories, Milley said after the 12th Ramstein Summit on May 25. Liberation is unlikely to happen in the near future, however, and the fighting ahead will be “difficult and bloody,” he added.
At a meeting of Nato foreign ministers in Oslo, Norway next week, Washington hopes to shore up support for Ukraine ahead of a July summit in Lithuania, acting assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs Dereck Hogan told reporters while previewing the trip, Reuters reports.
The US plans to announce the provision of a new package of military assistance to Ukraine worth up to US$300 million, which will mainly contain additional ammunition, as revealed by two official sources reported to Reuters about this on Thursday. It is expected that the new package of US military assistance to Ukraine will contain more Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems for HIMARS launchers as well as ammunition.
Bloomberg: EU freezes Russia’s Central Bank assets worth 200 billion euros. The European Union has frozen assets of Russia's Central Bank worth 200 billion euros ($214.6 billion), Bloomberg reported on May 25, citing European Commission spokesperson Christian Wigand.
Since last November, everyone who I know has commented on the fact that their engagements and reach has declined significantly on Twitter. My own engagement decreased by 80%. I don’t have an important account but for media outlets trying to inform readers about the war it is essential for them to reach as many people as possible. The graph below was produced by Press Gazzette.
At Ramstein, allies pledge $65 billion of combined military aid to Ukraine. The members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which meets in Germany’s Ramstein Air Base, pledged to provide $65 billion of military aid to Ukraine, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during an opening address at the summit on May 25.
President Zelensky official on Telegram: “I am grateful for Sweden's decision to join the international tank coalition in support of Ukraine and to donate 10 Leopard 2 tanks, as well as for its leadership in the formation of the CV-90 Infantry Fighting Vehicle Coalition.”
Canada has announced providing additional military assistance to Ukraine, including other ammunition and expanding the training programme for the Ukrainian military. In addition to 43 AIM-9 air-to-air missiles, Canada helps transport military aid from other Western allies, and its military transport planes have already delivered more than 4,000 tonnes of such cargo. Anita Anand, Defence Minister, announced that Canada would send five more tactical medicine instructors to Poland in addition to the seven who are already training the Ukrainian military there.
Stewart Rhodes, the founder and leader of the Oath Keepers, was sentenced to 18 years in prison on Thursday for leading a far-reaching plot to keep then-President Donald Trump in power after he lost the 2020 election. The sentence is the first handed down in over a decade for seditious conspiracy.
Read The New York Times article here.
March in Berlin: 4pm CET Freedom Square
The Road to Chişinău: The European Political Community
By Sam Greene, Edward Lucas, and Nicolas Tenzer, CEPA, May 23, 2023
Executive Summary
The European Political Community (EPC) — heading into its second summit this June in Chişinău — can help resolve urgent problems in “wider” Europe. 1 that cannot be solved by the European Union (EU) or NATO alone, such as
securing energy infrastructure;
investing in a green transition; and
defending Europe’s digital spaces.
The EPC should create a robust but flexible organizational structure, allowing both for “variable geometry” and consistent attention to resource-intensive policy initiatives.
While working alongside the EU, the EPC should remain organizationally and politically separate from EU institutions to maximize its agility, inclusivity, and efficacy.
Leaders must draw a clear line between the EPC and the question of EU enlargement to ensure that no one is tempted to see the EPC as a substitute for genuine EU integration.
Proponents of the EPC should understand that their mission — a continent-wide community of shared interests and values — is achievable only if and when Russia loses its war in Ukraine. [continue reading]
Honouring Tina Turner
From the US Embassy in Australia, “In honor of Tina Turner we decided to master the Nutbush, Australia’s unofficial national dance.”