May 28: E-Stories
InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Russia launches record 355 drones at Ukraine; 6 killed, 24 injured over past 24 hours. Russia launched its third large-scale aerial and drone assault against Ukraine in three nights, killing at least six people and injuring 24 across multiple oblasts over the past 24 hours, regional authorities reported on May 26.
Ukraine shot down 43 drones overnight (May 26–27). Russia launched 60 Shahed drones & decoys from Millerovo, Orel, Kursk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, and occupied Crimea. In total, 35 drones were destroyed by fire, 8 suppressed by EW.
"Russia is not winning this war,' EU defense commissioner says. European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said the EU must be ready to defend Ukraine and itself with or without Washington's backing.
AP: At least 206 Ukrainian prisoners of war have died in Russian captivity since 2022, with autopsies revealing torture, medical neglect, and brutal conditions. Evidence points to systemic abuse aimed at covering up war crimes, AP reports.
Ukraine is preparing to unlock a new gas import route via the Trans-Balkan corridor. Five transmission system operators from Greece to Ukraine are launching a joint product, ROUT1, offering 25% lower tariffs. If swiftly approved by regulators, it could make one of the most expensive routes finally viable. Ukraine’s underground gas storage currently holds 6.4 bcm — 30% less than this time last year. Ukraine is seeking new import routes to fully eliminate dependence on Russian gas, diversify supplies, and strengthen energy security ahead of a difficult winter.
Combat Situation
Russia occupies 4 border villages in Ukraine's Sumy Oblast. Russian forces control the Novenke, Zhuravka, Veselivka, and Basivka communities, Governor Oleh Hryhorov said. "Residents of these villages were evacuated long ago, and there is no threat to civilians."
Secret note reveals Russia using Telegram bots to control drones attacking Ukraine, Economist reports. The new control algorithm was revealed in a note hidden inside one of the Russian drones, possibly left behind by a "sympathetic Russian engineer," the Economist wrote. (Mo: I’ll leave this here for now, but I need to get a handle on the info. More to come.)
This is what an AI-generated bot farm looks like: when you’re responding to offensive statements, you are literally raging against the machine.
Ukraine captured almost 1,000 Russian soldiers during Kursk offensive, General Staff says. The military described the Kursk campaign as an "unexpected and asymmetric" move that helped fill the so-called "exchange fund" — Ukrainian terminology for captured Russian soldiers who can be traded for Ukrainian POWs.
Putin’s betting on a big summer offensive — still convinced he can win. The main push is expected in Donetsk, toward Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, while 125,000 troops mass near Sumy and Kharkiv. Ukraine’s bracing for defense. This might be Russia’s last real shot.
The Cipher Brief: Is the ground battle in Ukraine the future of warfare?
“Ukrainian ingenuity has exploded since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022,” Chief Warrant Officer 5 (Ret.) Joey Gagnard, writes in today’s Cipher Brief, “but what I have seen convinces me that Ukraine isn’t the straightforward blueprint for the future of unmanned systems warfare that many believe it to be.”
Gagnard argues that for all the successes in specific technological areas, the “decisive advantage” Ukraine and others are seeking comes not from fielding the most advanced systems, but applying them to an approach for strategic victory.
“It’s not about isolated pieces of technology,” Gagnard writes.
“Victory will go to whichever side masters the art of weaving all their assets—drones, sensors, troops, and intelligence—into a single, coherent fighting system. The power of future unmanned technology won’t be in the individual brilliance of the machines, but in our ability to choreograph, making every capability coalesce into a single, devastating strategic focus across the battlespace. That’s where the fight for the future lies.”
Russia is likely producing more ballistic missiles than the U.S. can supply Patriot interceptors, — The Economist. A U.S. factory plans to produce 650 interceptors in 2025 — over 100 fewer than the number of ballistic missiles Russia is expected to manufacture.
German Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil downplays talk of a shift in policy on Ukraine’s strike range: “There is no new agreement beyond what the previous government had in place.” This contrasts with Chancellor Merz, who declared no more range limits for weapons supplied to Ukraine.
Pressure from the Kremlin: MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova warns: Berlin is "digging itself into a hole" by lifting restrictions on how Ukraine can use German weapons. She claims the move "won’t change the course of the special military operation."
ISW: The Kremlin's ongoing cognitive warfare effort aimed at preventing future Western military assistance to Ukraine is rooted in fear and the acknowledgment that Russia's only real hope in defeating Ukraine is by isolating Ukraine from its allies.
Cognitive warfare involves information operations directed at specific cohorts, tailoring messages and images to shape the perception of their targets to the benefit of the aggressor state or non-state malign actor.
Behind the Lines
Reuters: A previously unknown Russian hacking group was behind attacks last year on the networks of the Dutch police, NATO and several European countries, Dutch intelligence agencies said.
Intelligence officials highlighted that Laundry Bear also conducted cyber espionage against companies producing high-tech products. Russia is restricted from accessing these products due to Western sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.
The statement added that the group sought information related to "the procurement and production of military equipment by Western governments and Western arms deliveries to Ukraine".
Keep waiting: US Special envoy Keith Kellogg acknowledges that they’ve received Kyiv’s list of conditions for peace and are waiting on Moscow’s response. They hoped to hold talks at the Vatican, but Russia declined. Kellogg stressed the importance of keeping up pressure on Russia to bring them back to the negotiating table.
Note Bien: He doesn’t mean it…
Massive explosion at a chemical plant in eastern China producing 11,000 tons of toxic chlorpyrifos annually — ABC reports. A fireball erupted, skies turned orange-grey, and toxic fumes were released. The incident is being labeled a chemical threat.
A huge explosion rocked a chemical plant in China’s eastern Shandong province around noon Tuesday, killing at least five people and injuring 19, according to state broadcaster CCTV. An additional six people remain missing.
The explosion happened at the Gaomi Youdao Chemical Co., which is located in an industrial park in the city of Weifang. It manufactures pesticides as well as chemicals for medical use, and has more than 500 employees, according to corporate registration records.
Russia can attack Europe 2-4 years after war's end, faster with lifted sanctions, Ukrainian intel chief warns. "If the sanctions are lifted, the rearmament process will proceed much faster," Ukrainian foreign intelligence (SZRU) chief Oleh Ivashchenko said in an interview with Ukrinform. (Mo: via my own sources, this info was confirmed to me.)
WSJ: The U.S. military is reinforcing its presence in Northern Europe, despite President Trump’s criticism of NATO, The Wall Street Journal reports. The Pentagon is bolstering defenses in the Baltic states, Norway, and on the strategically crucial Swedish island of Gotland, located just 200 miles from Kaliningrad. On Gotland, U.S. Marines launched Himars rockets, simulating strikes on targets in the Baltic Sea. This is not just a show of force, but preparation for a potential war — the region is viewed as key in the event of Russian aggression. Swedish analysts warn that in a conflict, Russia may attempt to seize ports in the Baltics, Finland, and Poland.
The Cipher Brief: NATO may soon agree to a new defense spending target of 5% of GDP, according to Secretary General Mark Rutte. Rutte said in a televised Q&A session at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Dayton, Ohio that, “I assume that in The Hague we will agree on a higher defense spending target of in total 5%.” He was referring to the June NATO Summit to be held in The Hague. Of NATO’s 32 members, only 23 meet the current 2% defense spending target. None are at 5%. NATO estimates that the U.S. spent around 3.4% of its GDP on defense in 2024.
Netherlands backs Zelensky's presence at upcoming NATO summit. "We are looking at how we can get a place in the program for Zelensky and other Ukrainians," Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said during an appearance on the Dutch television program WNL op Zondag.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Putin calls to 'strangle' Western companies still operating in Russia. "We should strangle them. I agree completely. I'm speaking without any shame, because they're trying to strangle us," Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
Across the country, Russians frustrated by factory emissions, dilapidated housing, and pollution are turning to the president for help. After their complaints to prosecutors, local officials, and police go unanswered, they record public video appeals to Vladimir Putin — hoping someone in power will finally listen. But instead of holding polluters and officials accountable, the Russian authorities go after the people who speak out — summoning them for questioning, fining them, and pressing criminal charges. The independent Okno project looked into just what happens when ordinary Russians go public with their grievances.
The IOC has officially announced that Russian sports teams, including the national hockey team, will not be able to take part in the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy. The decision is part of the current sanctions measures introduced after the start of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. The reason for the IOC's clarification was reports from Russia about negotiations between representatives of the Russian Ice Hockey Federation and the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) regarding the possible admission of the team to the Games.
Russia has convened a UN Security Council meeting, claiming that Europe is obstructing "peace in Ukraine." Deputy envoy Dmitry Polyansky accused European actions of hindering a settlement — as Russia continues large-scale strikes on Ukrainian cities.
Michael Turner: Two Japan Coast Guard vessels JCG Muzuki and JCG Nobaru ramming a Chinese Maritime Militia boat whose crew had illegally placed a Chinese flag on Japan's Uotsuri Island.
AFP News Agency: China's main export destinations in 2025. AFP Infographic chart highlighting the ASEAN proportion in China's main export destinations in Jan-Apr 2025, according to China Customs data
Georgia: Around 30 policemen grabbed Strong Georgia youth member Luka Natsvlishvili and took him to an unknown destination as the Independence Day rally in Batumi was concluding. They gave no reason or explanation.
Romania's defeated far-right, anti-Hungarian presidential candidate George Simion is worried about Orbán losing power:
"If you [Poland] will not prevail, then Hungary is next, and Viktor Orbán will also lose power. And all our continent, all the EU will become a dictatorship."
In Europe…
The U.S. and EU have ceased joint efforts to combat Russian sanctions evasion, per a German Foreign Ministry report. This collapse of transatlantic coordination weakens pressure on Russia — and risks undermining the global sanctions regime that helps defend Ukraine. China is now responsible for ~80% of evasion, while cracks appear even within NATO.
Follow up: Ukrainian sanctions chief Vladyslav Vlasiuk denies claims of a breakdown in U.S.-EU sanctions coordination.
The UK will allocate funds from the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) initiative to arm and repair equipment for Ukraine. The Ministries of Defence of Ukraine, Strategic Industry, and the UK have signed an agreement to use surplus frozen Russian assets. Ukraine is set to receive $3 billion between 2025–2026.
Will the EU be able to lower the Russian oil price cap without help from the US? The European Commission aims to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60/barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package but needs US support to proceed. The proposal will be discussed at the G7 finance meeting in Canada amid uncertainty after Trump’s call with Putin.
Bloomberg Business: The EU is preparing to permanently bury Nord Stream 2. In its 18th sanctions package, Brussels plans to officially blacklist the pipeline — once a symbol of Russian leverage over Europe. The timing is no coincidence: as Gazprom quietly seeks an "energy-for-peace" deal via Washington, the EU Commission doubles down — there’s no return to business with Moscow. Backed by Berlin, the move signals a strategic break from dependency. Banning NS2 is more than symbolic: it’s a step toward energy sovereignty and a clear answer to those still dreaming of “cheap Russian gas.”
NYT: Maros Sefcovic, the E.U.’s trade commissioner, spoke yesterday with Howard Lutnick, the U.S. commerce secretary, a day after President Trump said that he would delay 50 percent tariffs on all E.U. imports to allow more time for negotiations. Sefcovic later posted on social media that the E.U. “remains fully committed to constructive and focused efforts” toward a deal.
A spokesman for the commission said yesterday that the E.U. was still suggesting that both sides could cut tariffs on industrial goods to zero. He also suggested that the E.U. was refining lists of retaliatory tariffs — which European nations could slap on American imports like machinery, soybeans and bourbon.
The Trump administration has pushed for European nations to change their consumption tax system and key digital regulations, which officials have said they will not do.
Reuters: European policymakers have asked the bloc's leading companies and CEOs to swiftly provide detail of their US investment plans, according to two sources familiar with the matter, as Brussels prepares for trade talks with Washington.
Italy's mafia is turning away from violent turf wars to collaborate in drug trafficking, prostitution rings and money laundering, the national anti-mafia agency (DIA) said in an annual report about the organized crime groups on Tuesday. Sicily's Cosa Nostra and the Camorra around Naples are forming alliances at home and abroad, while the 'Ndrangheta, based in Calabria in Italy's southern toe, is increasingly focused on controlling public works projects, the report said.
Nearly 50 Injured After Driver Plows Into Parade Crowd in Liverpool. A driver slammed a car into a crowd celebrating Liverpool’s Premier League victory, seriously injuring a child and an adult and sending more than two dozen people to hospitals, officials in England said. The crash was not being treated as terrorism, the police said.
The Merseyside Police said in a statement that a “53-year-old white British man” from the Liverpool area had been arrested at the scene, and added: “We would ask people not to speculate on the circumstances surrounding tonight’s incident on Water Street in Liverpool city centre. Extensive enquiries are ongoing to establish the circumstances leading up to the collision. We would ask people not to share distressing content online.”
In other news…
CBC News: King Charles, speaking from the Senate chamber on Tuesday, delivered a speech from the throne that acknowledged the worry that comes with a 'drastically changing world' — including a changing relationship between Canada and the U.S. But the speech also looked forward, pointing to government plans to increase affordability, take on major projects and build a strong economy that ‘serves everyone.’
Venezuela: The party of the autocrat Nicolás Maduro claimed victory in regional and legislative elections, but polling places were nearly empty and results were not posted.
Retailers pummeled by Trump's trade war entertain more 'take-private' offers. Boards and the owners of retailers whose shares have been pummeled by U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war are increasingly warming to offers to sell – and to escape the market chaos that has caused company valuations to seesaw in recent months.
Following sneaker-maker Skechers' take-private deal earlier this month, dealmakers expect other retailers to clinch their own agreements to go private in the near-term, especially if Trump does not soon settle on a more stable trade policy, according to interviews with 10 investment bankers and M&A lawyers.
Reporter: What do you say to Americans who can't afford to be patient? He said he would lower prices on day one. Stephen Miller: But he did lower prices across the board on day one. (He’s so despicable.)
CNN: NPR sues Trump over executive order to cut funding
National Public Radio filed a First Amendment lawsuit against the Trump administration on Tuesday, alleging that President Trump’s attempt to defund NPR is a “clear violation of the Constitution.”
Several NPR member stations from Colorado joined the national network in filing the suit, highlighting the local impacts of taxpayer-funded media.
Trump targeted both NPR and its television counterpart, PBS, in an executive order on May 1. The president accused the public media outfits of bias and said the Corporation for Public Broadcasting must stop funding them.
CNN: Trump administration is set to cancel federal contracts with Harvard worth some $100 million
The Trump administration is poised to direct federal agencies to cancel their contracts – totaling about $100 million – with Harvard University, two senior Trump administration officials told CNN, the latest barb against the school as it refuses to bend to the White House’s weekslong barrage of policy demands rooted in political ideology.
The directive will be delivered Tuesday in a letter and also will order government agencies to look for new vendors to which they can redirect the federal funds, the officials said.