May 29: E-Stories
Day 460: Kyiv Mariupol Kherson Zapo Kharkiv Zhytomyr RUdomestic Austria Denmark GeotheIns PeaceTalks NATO Taliban Turkey A&Ps UKDef MacKay Braw Noel IntriguedExplained Erlanger deWinter BenGhiat
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Dr. Eli David: The entire video and audio here is AI-generated. AI is becoming indistinguishable from reality. This is a promotional video.
Can I just say that this scares the hell out of me? I’m thinking of the implications of creating AI generated beings posing as anyone, you included. Let’s say a video emerges and you’re committing some sort of crime? There’s just too much to say on this so I’ll stop here for now.
Stories we’re following…
Russia launches 14th aerial attack at Ukraine on the eve of Kyiv Day, debris kills one. Debris from an aerial target that was shot down fell onto a gas station in Kyiv's Holosiivskyi district, killing one person and injuring at least one, the Kyiv City Military Administration reported on Telegram.
There are heavy explosions at the “Solnechnyi” camp near temporarily-occupied Mariupol, where there is a troop concentration of the Russian fascist invaders.
Reznikov reports 100% hit rate for new British-made cruise missiles used by Ukraine. The air-launched Storm Shadow missiles, jointly developed by Great Britain and France and capable of hitting targets at a distance of more than 250 kilometers, were delivered to Ukraine on May 12 from the UK, CNN reported.
Russian attacks kill 1, injure 8 civilians across Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russian attacks in Kherson, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblast have also damaged housing, infrastructure, and power grid, regional authorities reported on May 28. Russian attacks kill 2 in Kharkiv Oblast, Explosions were heard in the central city of Zhytomyr early in the morning of May 28, infrastructure hit.
More than 40 Russian drones shot down over Kyiv overnight. Kyiv's air defenses shot down 52 drones Russia launched at the capital overnight on May 28, in what the Kyiv City Military Administration says was the largest drone attack on the city since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. In total, the Ukrainian air defences have shot down 58 of the 59 drones strikes.
In the Kupyansk direction, Russian troops hit the manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Pershotravneve, Timkovka, Dvurechnaya in the Kharkov region, Novoselovskoe and Stelmakhivka in the Luhansk region—Russian MoD briefing on May 28.
Russian attacks near Bakhmut have decreased significantly over the last 24 hours, according to Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for the eastern section of Ukraine’s army as quoted by Ukrinform.
“In the Bakhmut direction, the occupiers opened fire with different weapons 250 times. Our forces also launched strikes in response. As a result, 80 occupiers were eliminated, 99 injured, and one Russian soldier was taken prisoner. Three self-propelled howitzers, one electronic warfare system and one ammunition depot were destroyed.”
Former prisoners recruited into the Russian army continue to desert from the front. This time, seven former convicts escaped from a military unit in the occupied DPR, TASS reported , citing a law enforcement source. Five of them have already been arrested.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, about 80 Russian soldiers deserted in the occupied Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast, and about 30 Wagner mercenaries fled in the Bakhmut area.
The authorities in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine continue to coerce local populations into accepting Russian passports, Ukrainian officials have said. In its latest operational update, the General Staff of the Armed Forces said “forced passporting” was taking place in the Nyzhni Sirohozy district in the southern region of Kherson. “In particular, the Russian occupiers constantly put pressure on the locals, threaten deportation and confiscation of property,” it said.
Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with Pavel Zarubin that against Russia "in the broader sense of the word" there is a war "on all fronts."
“Be it the economy, be it interstate relations, be it property relations, and so on. They encroach on what used to be absolutely holy, but, nevertheless, we see that all these unshakable foundations are crumbling.”
Russians snitch on Russians who oppose war with Soviet-style denunciations. Parishioners have denounced Russian priests who advocated peace instead of victory in the war on Ukraine. Teachers lost their jobs after children tattled that they opposed the war. Neighbors who bore some trivial grudge for years have snitched on longtime foes. Workers rat on one another to their bosses or directly to the police or the Federal Security Service. [read the story]
Hundreds of German officials will be forced to leave Russia due to Moscow's decision to reduce the number of employees of German institutions in the country. According to the news outlet, to a certain extent, this applies to diplomats but primarily to employees of the education and cultural spheres, such as teachers at a German school in Moscow and employees of the Goethe Institute.
Lukashenko claims Russia will give nukes to any state that joins 'Union State.' Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko claimed Russia will give nuclear weapons to any state that joins the Union State of Russia and Belarus, Russian state-controlled media said.
Belarusian Hajun Project: “Currently, we can’t confirm the rumors spread by Valery Tsepkala that Lukashenko was hospitalized in Moscow on May 25. According to our information, Lukashenko returned to Minsk on May 25 at 20:00, after which his motorcade was spotted on the way to his residence.” (this is what I was trying to say about rumours. Tsepkala often circulates information that is not true.)
Russia wants Ukraine to give up occupied territories, NATO and EU membership to start peace talks. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said, in an interview with the Russian state-controlled TASS news agency, that Ukraine must recognize the "new territorial realities," meaning it should give up Russian-occupied territories. President's Office Head Andriy Yermak said Kyiv would not hold any peace talks with Russia as long as Russian troops are on Ukrainian territory.
Anna Malyar, MoD spokesperson, commenting on future negotiations in an interview on May 28 said that for her, “victory is the liberation of all our temporarily occupied territories. Because these are not just lands, these are our people who are forced to stay there.”
Two-thirds of Ukrainians oppose negotiations with Russia. A new poll has found that 64% of Ukrainians oppose direct talks with Russia before the war ends, while 23.1% are in favor of negotiations.
Austria to finance demining in Ukraine. Austria will finance demining equipment worth 2 million euros ($2.2 million) for Ukraine, the Austrian government announced in a statement and reported by DW. At the same time, Chancellor Karl Nehammer stressed that "not a single Austrian soldier will enter Ukrainian soil to clear mines as long as it is a combat zone."
Denmark creates $133 million fund to invest in Ukraine. Denmark has launched a new program to aid Ukraine - an investment fund with 1 billion Danish kroner ($133 million), Ukraine's Economy Ministry announced on May 27.
Spanish DefMin Margarita Robles announced deliveries of four more Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and the transfer of BMP M113 at the Ramstein Meeting.
NHS data breach: trusts shared patient details with Facebook without consent. NHS trusts are sharing intimate details about patients’ medical conditions, appointments and treatments with Facebook without consent and despite promising never to do so. An Observer investigation has uncovered a covert tracking tool in the websites of 20 NHS trusts which has for years collected browsing information and shared it with the tech giant in a major breach of privacy. [read the investigation]
Elections in Turkey
In a run-off election, 64 million Turkish nationals are going back to the ballot box for the second time in two weeks. The BBC reports that the number of voters is down from the first round of elections on May 14. Erdogan came ahead in the first round with 49.52% of the votes while Kilicdaroglu received 44.88%. In the latest up-date, with 50% of the votes counted, Erdogan received 54.47% of the vote. So it looks like he’s locked this up.
Orianna Lyla, Saving children in Kherson
She hid children from Kherson educational institutions to save them from deportation.
A heroic person in the field of education is Tetiana Yushko, the Director of the Department of Education and Science of the Kherson Regional State Administration.
From the first day of the invasion, Tetiana stayed in Kherson and worked, so to speak, underground when the city was occupied by the russians, supporting and coordinating educators who did not go over to the side of the occupier.
Today, Tetiana Yushko continues to work in Kherson and restore the educational process for children who are now in the city. And this is despite the fact that Kherson is shelled by the enemy every day.
Tetyana Yushko was awarded the Diploma of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine for her contribution to the preservation of education in Kherson region. It was presented by Yuliia Hryshyna, the Head of the Higher Education Subcommittee of the Education and Science Committee, and Oksen Lisovyi, the Minister of Education of Ukraine.
If a Divided Germany Could Enter NATO, Why Not Ukraine?
By Steven Erlanger, The New York Times, May 26, 2023
Despite its division and unhappy role as the border between nuclear armed rivals during the Cold War, West Germany became a NATO member in 1955, benefiting from the alliance’s protection, without ever giving up its commitment to unification, finally realized in 1989.
For Ukraine, much will depend on the shape of the battlefield after its coming counteroffensive, and whether the outcome leads to some kind of extended cease-fire, relatively stable borderlines, or even peace talks.
The West German model is gaining traction in some European capitals as a way to provide Ukraine real security, even if it does not immediately regain all its territory.
Germany is an example of NATO accepting a country with “significant and unresolved territorial issues” and a form of enemy occupation, said Angela E. Stent, an expert on Russia and Germany and author of “Putin’s World.”
Elisabeth Braw, Deterring Russia? Follow the example of Ireland’s fishing industry—Politico
And according to Terras, whose military career began when he was conscripted into the Soviet Navy, NATO navies should track Russian vessels more closely. “Commercial ships have AIS [automatic identification systems, required for all but the smallest commercial vessels], but they can obviously turn it off,” he pointed out. “So, you need visual coverage, radar coverage to help you recognize what sort of Russian vessels are approaching and what they’re doing. Then we can identify areas of concern. Once we identify this, we can send ships to follow these vessels.”
Terras’ military service was aboard a frigate that shadowed NATO vessels. “We were always following American aircraft carriers to see what they were doing,” he said. “If we can do such monitoring of Russian vessels together with other NATO states, it would make the task easier for everyone. Sweden joining NATO would bring significant capability because they have the largest navy in the Baltic Sea.”
And because navies and coast guards can’t be everywhere all the time, operators could partner in this. “There will be practical details that need to be addressed,” Grenstad noted. “For example, when something happens, who should respond?” But by working out such important details in advance, including through exercises, governments and operators will be prepared.
Programming note…
Intrigue Explained is a show where two former diplomats (Dmitry Grozoubinski and John Fowler) and the people they know break down the big stories in international news.
This episode debate: should the West should seek to restrict the media channels of foreign adversaries. Is it smarter in the long term to ban stations like RT, or to ignore them?
Also on the show: The incurions into the Belgorod Oblast by Russian paramilitaries hostile to the Kremlin; and the massive fine issued to Meta by the European Union over Facebook's user data transfers to the US.