May 29: E-Stories

InUkraine CombatSitRep BehindLines Russia-China InEurope InOtherNews

May 29, 2025

Catching up…

For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.

For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.

Let’s get going…

Stories we’re following…

On the night of May 28, Ukrainian air defense neutralized 71 out of 88 Russian Shahed drones. Russia also launched Iskander-M & Kh-59/69 missiles from Kursk, Voronezh, and occupied Crimea. Strikes recorded in 8 locations.

Zarina Zabrisky: UN inquiry finds Russia committed crimes against humanity and war crimes in the Kherson region, Ukraine—targeting civilians to spread terror, violating international law.

Russia’s military has committed “crimes against humanity” and “war crimes” in its drone attacks on civilians in Ukraine’s Kherson region, UN experts concluded in a report published on Wednesday. The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, established by the UN human rights council, said Russian armed forces were “systematically” hitting civilians, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP).

After 3 days of consecutive attacks on Ukraine, Russia calls UN meeting over alleged European 'threats to peace.' Moscow requested a meeting of the U.N. Security Council over Europe's alleged "threats to international peace and security," Russia's U.N. envoy, Dmitry Polyansky, said on May 27, only a day after Russia launched its largest drone attack against Ukraine.

Mo: Besides the fascist affectionatos, I don’t think there’s a human being on Earth that isn’t appalled at the Kremlin gaul.

President Zelensky: “We’re using Patriot missiles carefully, just like before,” Zelensky said. “We’re tackling the toughest threats—ballistic and cruise missiles. We have the rockets, and partners are helping. We’re getting close to decisions on licensing other air defense systems, but I can’t share details yet.”

He added that Russia will start feeling the real impact of Western sanctions by summer 2026.
He notes their defense industry won’t keep growing next year and expects it to shrink steadily. Zelensky also urged the U.S. to step up pressure, saying Europe has delivered a 17th sanctions package and a tougher 18th is in the works.

Russia builds power lines to connect occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant to its grid, NYT reports. The Zaporizhzhia plant, the largest nuclear facility in Europe and one of the ten largest globally, has been under Russian occupation since March 2022.

Ukraine has protested to the international atomic energy watchdog about reports that Russia is building power lines to connect the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant to its own grid, a Ukrainian official said on Wednesday.

Despite Kremlin claims, 82% of Russian-speaking Ukrainians view Russia negatively, poll shows. The results come as Russia continues to invoke the supposed plight of Russian-speaking communities to justify its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian MFA: Roman, Tamara, and Stanislav Martyniuk – three siblings from Korostyshiv, Zhytomyr region, – were all killed when a Russian missile struck their home on the night of May 25.

Today, their community gathered to say a heartbreaking farewell. Just days away from graduating, 17-year-old Roman had been looking forward to his prom. Tamara, 12, and Stanislav, 8, both attended the local music school and had plans for school trips and summer holidays.
Those plans will never come true. Russia mercilessly cut their lives short. Killing children is the most terrible crime, and Russia must not go unpunished for all the pain it has caused.

Ukraine will start importing American LNG via a new route through the EU. The gas will flow in reverse from Greece through Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova. First deliveries are expected in June, with up to 3 million cubic meters per day. If continued past October, total imports could reach 700–800 million cubic meters by year’s end, RBC-Ukraine reports.

Intermarium24: Poland and Ukraine have expand agreement to allow Ukraine to use Polish gas pipeline systems, which will help Ukraine continue to ensure continuous natural gas supplies from abroad.

Combat Situation

115 Ukrainian drones reportedly struck targets deep in Russia overnight. Kronshtadt UAV factory near Moscow and the Elma technopark—key centers for Russian drone and microelectronics production—were hit, according to Russian media.

A strike has been confirmed on the N.P. Fedorov Machine-Building Plant in Dubna, a key facility producing aircraft and missile tech, including light aircraft and drones.

Russia changes drone tactics to bypass Ukraine's air defense, Air Force says. Russia's new tactic is to launch the drones at high altitudes, more than 2 kilometers (1.4 miles) above the ground, and keep changing the drones' routes. Then, the drones swoop down directly onto the target, Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said.

ISW: Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Kupyansk, and Pokrovsk.

The Kremlin is setting conditions to establish permanent control over the Russian-occupied Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), suggesting that Russia plans to illegally occupy and annex additional territory in Ukraine.

Behind the Lines

'Istanbul is very good' — Lavrov backs Turkey again for next round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks. "If you ask me, I would turn to our Turkish friends again — Istanbul is very good," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

The EU has launched a new Black Sea strategy to boost defense readiness amid growing Russian threats. The plan includes €75B in infrastructure upgrades for military mobility, a new maritime security hub, and deeper ties with Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and others.

Global News: Anton Trofimov, a Toronto man whose company allegedly shipped drone parts to Russia has been arrested by the RCMP for sanctions violations, according to documents obtained by Global News.

Anton Trofimov has been charged with two counts of evading the sweeping sanctions that Canada has imposed on Russia in response to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
The 43-year-old, whose company Asia Pacific Links Ltd. has been accused of supplying the Russian military, is also charged with knowingly possessing the proceeds of crime.
The RCMP has scheduled a news conference in London, Ont. on Wednesday to announce what they are calling Canada’s first prosecution for violating Canada’s sanctions on Russia.

Meanwhile in Russia & China…

Reuters: Putin’s Conditions for Ending the War. These are the conditions right now. Let’s see what the Kremlin comes up with in an hour.

Putin demands written guarantees from the West that Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other former Soviet republics will not join NATO.
Russia also insists on Ukraine adopting a neutral status, the lifting of sanctions, and guarantees for the protection of Russian-speaking citizens in Ukraine.
Moscow signals readiness to agree to the transfer of frozen Russian reserves for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Kremlin aide Ushakov claims Trump is not being fully informed about Ukraine’s "massive terrorist attacks" on Russian cities. Russian officials say they are deeply hurt by the West’s silence.

Trump: "I will let you know in two weeks whether Putin is he is tapping us along or not. And if so, we will respond a little differently."

Margarita Simonyan: “In Moscow’s offices, it’s being discussed that if German forces strike Moscow with German weapons — and authorizing Taurus use means exactly that, since the Ukrainian army cannot service or program them — then we’ll have no choice left but to strike Berlin.”

Mo: The Kremlin is on an information offensive at the moment. Added to the numerous Kremlin mouthpieces increasingly littering our feeds with their claims of wanting peace and denigrating Ukraine, a convenient ‘leak’ is being circulated by Danish investigative group Danwatch and Der Spiegel.

The leaked documents—part of a cache of more than two million files—include detailed architectural plans, internal layouts, and procurement records for new military installations. Much of this sensitive material was inadvertently published on Russia’s public government procurement portals, a practice that continued for years despite a 2020 shift to a classified tender system for military contracts.

It is reminiscent of the Cold War years when the Soviets wanted to inhibit US and allied action by leaking information about their nuclear programme: this seems to be the same thing.

Leaks in Russia, and in the US for that matter, are tools used to shape perception of the receivor. In the US, Senators and members of Congress leaked information to the New York Times or Washington Post in order to put pressure on various presidents after the early 1970s to roll back policy decisions, especially in foreign policy.

In this case, considering the nature of the content, it seems the information has been disseminated purposefully to intimidate the White House and EU allies to Ukraine; furthermore, it comes at a time when Sarmat missile tests that have all failed. It’s also revelatory that the nuclear theme coincides with statements by Moscow and Washington about setting the terms for a so-called ‘peace’.

Dr. Marek Chodakiewicz, Professor of History of The Kościuszko Chair of Polish Studies at The Institute of World Politics, spoke at the Sixth Annual Kościuszko Chair Spring Symposium in 2016 on Russia's tradition of government funded and coordinated deception. It’s a classic and well-worth your time.

Musk to invest $300 million in Telegram: The main owner of Telegram, Pavel Durov, spoke about a big deal with the founder of Tesla and the richest man in the world, Elon Musk. Durov announced in his Telegram channel about cooperation with Musk's company in the field of artificial intelligence xAI.

Durov spoke about the integration of the Grok chatbot from xAI into the messenger. This bot is already working in Musk's X social network, the American entrepreneur launched it in an attempt to impose a fight on the project of his former associate Sam Altman from OpenAI (ChatGPT). According to Durov, in the summer, users will get access to Musk's AI inside the application, smart search and "expansion" functions for messages from the neural network will be available.

Nearly 175,000 servicemen have signed Russian army contracts since the beginning of the year, the TASS state news agency reported on Wednesday, quoting top security official Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev, Russia’s former president, also said that more than 14,000 additional people had joined the army on a volunteer basis, TASS reported.

Belarus will scale back military drills with Russia planned for September, cutting the number of soldiers taking part and moving them away from the western border, Minsk said on Wednesday, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP).

NYT: Trump may be preparing a large-scale agreement with Russia and China on the division of spheres of global influence, - NYT. According to the publication, he wants a world where Moscow, Beijing and Washington will be the centers of power in their part of the Earth "like the imperial politics of the 19th century."

NYT: China to Launch Mission to Capture Pieces of an Unusual Asteroid. The robotic Tianwen-2 spacecraft will collect samples from Kamoʻoalewa, which some scientists suspect is a fragment of the moon.

Reuters: Satellite imagery shows China landed two of its most advanced bombers in the disputed Paracel islands in the South China Sea this month - a gesture that some analysts described as Beijing's latest signalling of its growing military capabilities to rivals.

The deployment marks the first time the long-range H-6 bombers have landed on Woody Island in the Paracels since 2020, and the movement of the now upgraded aircraft comes amid tensions with the Philippines, operations near Taiwan and ahead of the region's biggest defence forum this weekend.
"China's long-range bombers don't need to be on the Paracels so it does appear to be omni-directional signalling by Beijing - against the Philippines and against the U.S. and other things that are going on," said Collin Koh, a defence scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Mtavari TV: The U.S. Embassy states that Ivanishvili refused to meet with Ambassador Dunnigan, where he was expected to hear a message from the Trump administration. The meeting was scheduled on May 22 at the request of Secretary Rubio.

Marika Mikiashvili: Georgia’s (so-called) Minister of Internal Affairs Vakhtang Gomelauri (left) and the Head of the Patrol Police Vazha Siradze (right) both resign, with Gomelauri citing the desire to spend more time with his grandchild.

Both are under international sanctions. Gomelauri is under US Magnitsky and UK Global Human Rights sanctions too. He is being replaced by someone we’ve never heard of - Gela Geladze.
Make no mistake - this is the regime contracting, shrinking, getting weaker. It does not get any closer to Ivanishvili than Gomelauri, his former personal guard. Add to this the departure of others from Ivanishvili’s closest circle such as Irakli Gharibashvili.
There are further reports of the violent Director of the Special Task Department Zviad Kharazishvili AKA Khareba resigning, but it isn’t confirmed yet.

Hungary and Slovakia refused to sign an EU Council document on strengthening democratic resilience, countering disinformation, and supporting independent media. As a result, Poland released it as Presidency conclusions, backed by 25 member states—Europe Minister Adam Szłapka.

In Europe…

Chancellor Merz will hosted President Zelensky in Berlin yesterday with full military honors. The visit will focus on Germany’s support for Ukraine and efforts toward a ceasefire.

Chancellor Merz said during a visit by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky that Berlin will help Kyiv develop new long-range weapons that can hit targets in Russian territory, AFP reported.
“Our defence ministers will sign a memorandum of understanding today regarding the procurement of Ukrainian-made long-range weapons systems,” said Merz, without naming the manufacturers involved.
“There will be no range restrictions, allowing Ukraine to fully defend itself, even against military targets outside its own territory,” he told a joint press conference.

Germany pledges 5 billion euros in new aid to Ukraine, no Taurus missiles announced. The agreement includes direct German investments in Ukraine's defense industry and a broader treaty between Kyiv and German arms manufacturers.

The EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas presser: “Today, we adopt a new Strategy for the Black Sea – a region of great importance to the EU. We’re stepping up work on security with:

A new Maritime Security Hub;
improved military mobility;
Stronger cooperation against hybrid threats.

Kaja Kallas also held a press conference about EU actions to hold “a Chinese state-backed actor responsible for a malicious cyber campaign targeting Czechia.” She added that it was “a clear and unacceptable violation of international norms. We stand firmly with Czechia.”

German prosecutors charged three people – a Ukrainian, a Russian and an Armenian – with foreign agent activity, on suspicion of spying on a Ukrainian man in Germany with the possible aim of killing him, prosecutors said on Wednesday. The target of the operation was a man who had taken part in combat operations for the Ukrainian armed forces following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a statement from the federal prosecutor said.

Japan join to the Finnish-Polish ICE-Eye project, whose satellite reconnaissance services are currently used by Ukraine - constellation will be expanded to 24 satellites.

The Polish-Finnish company ICEYE has signed a strategic agreement with the Japanese giant IHI Corporation on the construction of a new constellation of SAR satellites. The system, consisting of up to 24 devices, is to serve not only the military, but also public administration and the commercial sector in Asia. Earlier, the Polish army bought satellites from this company for almost 200 million euros.
The agreement was signed during the international defense fair DSEI Japan at Makuhari Messe near Tokyo. The cooperation includes the establishment of a production plant for ICEYE satellites in Japan, which is to strengthen the local space industry and national security. The project is still awaiting final formal approvals, but its strategic importance is not in doubt on either side.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will visit Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan on Thursday and Friday. Her trip comes after the first-ever Italy-Central Asia summit in Astana on Friday. Rome aims to expand its influence in a region traditionally dominated by Moscow and Beijing, and fulfill its ambition to position itself as a key EU player and strategic partner in Central Asia—a region rich in natural resources and geopolitical weight.

Italy is Kazakhstan’s third-largest trade partner, behind China and Russia.
In 2024, trade volumes surged 25%, hitting $20 billion—$18 billion of which came from Kazakh oil exports to Italy.
The summit will bring together the leaders of all five Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.
Talks will focus on energy, rare earth minerals, digitalisation, logistics, infrastructure, and broader cooperation in culture, science, and agriculture.

In other news…

Israel Officially Confirms Hamas Leader Killed in Gaza Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the death of the Hamas leader Muhammad Sinwar during a speech before the Israeli parliament.

According to earlier media reports, Muhammad Sinwar was killed a week ago in an Israeli airstrike. Sinwar took over leadership of Hamas in the fall of 2024 after the death of his older brother, Yahya Sinwar, who was considered by Israel to be the chief architect and mastermind behind the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack.

The Cipher Brief: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is facing more upheaval and uncertainty. Several of the cybersecurity agency’s senior officials have recently left their positions, or will soon be out the door.

An email sent Thursday by CISA deputy director Madhu Gottumukkala, and first reported on by The Washington Post, details the departures. The top leaders of five of CISA’s six operational divisions and six of its 10 regional offices will all be gone by the end of the month. The vacancies hit CISA’s infrastructure security, stakeholder engagement, emergency communications, cybersecurity and integrated operations divisions, as well as the regional teams that expand CISA’s nationwide presence. Several administrative officials have also left or are leaving. The email did not specify the reasons for the departures.