May 3: E-Stories
Day 434: UASitRep Bakhmut Syrskyi Melitopol Denmark US May9 Kadyrov SouthAFRUnarratives LevadaPoll Pope A&P Natalka UKDef ISW GlasnostGone CDSDaily Davis ERICInteriews Sumlenny Revishvili
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia launches large-scale missile strike overnight on May 1, on 11 regions injuring at least 34 people. Russia launched another large-scale missile strike against Ukraine overnight on May 1, injuring at least 34 people.
Military: Ukraine launches counterattacks in Bakhmut, Russian forces 'abandon some positions'. Ukrainian troops launched counterattacks in parts of Bakhmut, leading Russian troops to abandon some positions, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's Land Forces and Eastern Operational Command, reported on May 1. The Russian command is exerting efforts to capture at least one of the three towns, namely Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka, by May 9.
All the children have been evacuated from the town of Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where 80% of the houses were destroyed, but the Russian occupiers continue to attack the settlement, as per the Deputy Mayor of Orikhiv.
Minister: 8 Offensive Guard brigades 'fully formed', others in progress. The eight assault brigades that form Ukraine's new Offensive Guard force are "fully formed" and will be placed under the command of Ukraine's Armed Forces after receiving combat missions, Internal Affairs Minister Ihor Klymenko said in an interview on May 2.
Ukraine’s military vowed on Tuesday not to give up Bakhmut as it prepares to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces. General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukrainian ground forces, underlined the importance Kyiv attaches to holding Bakhmut as preparations continue for a counterattack which it hopes will change the dynamic of the war in Ukraine.
“We will continue, despite all the forecasts and advice, to hold Bakhmut, destroying Wagner and other most combat-capable units of the Russian army,” he told soldiers in video footage of his visit. “We give our reserves an opportunity to prepare and we are preparing for further actions ourselves.”
Ivan Fedorov, Mayor of Melitopol, on Telegram, reports that Ukrainian reconnaissance officers identified the location of Russian military headquarters in the occupied village of Mykhailivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Ukraine’s defence forces struck the headquarters on Monday.
Explosion wounds top proxy official in Russian-occupied Melitopol. The Russian-installed deputy head of the Internal Affairs regional office in Zaporizhzhia Oblast was reportedly hospitalized after opening his gate where an explosive device had been planted, according to Russian media reports.
Radio Svoboda (Radio Liberty) reports an explosion rocked the base of the Russian border guards near Simferopol, in Russian-occupied Crimea and in the Bryansk region in Russia, another wagon derailment, reportedly after an IED attached to the tracks exploded. In total there are four reported cases of sabotage in Bryansk.
Reznikov: Russia preparing new 'acts of goodwill' in case of Ukrainian success. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on May 2 that Moscow is preparing new explanations for future battlefield defeats at the hands of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Lukashenko has convened a meeting to discuss the security and protection of the state border. He was informed that a "significant aggravation of the situation" is allegedly expected, as reported by Belarusian state-owned media outlet BelTA. He claims that "a significant aggravation of the operational situation that is developing around Belarus is predicted".
As reported by the National Resistance Centre, Russian Federal Security Service officers on the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine dress in plainclothes to find out about Ukrainian partisans.
[The Federal Security Service officers] in the guise of ordinary civilians ask shopkeepers, [public transport] conductors, and others about people who complain about the Russian government. They often initiate conversations [about those topics] themselves. This is the tactic enemy forces are using to find ‘disloyal’ citizens."
South Africa trying to convince Putin not to come due to arrest warrant. South African officials are trying to persuade Russian dictator Vladimir Putin not to come to South Africa for a BRICS summit in August due to the International Criminal Court's warrant for his arrest, South Africa's Sunday Times reported on April 30.
At least six Russian regions have scrapped 9 May Victory Day parades that mark the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany amid fear over Ukrainian strikes, with the governor of a region 400 miles from the border the latest to cancel. “There won’t be a parade in order to not provoke the enemy with large numbers of equipment and service members in central Belgorod,” the regions’ head Vyacheslav Gladkov said last month.
CDS Daily Brief: According to a Levada Center poll, television (totally controlled by the Kremlin) remains the primary news source for two-thirds of Russians, with social networks (41%) and internet outlets (33%) gaining ground. Russia ranks 155th out of 180 countries in the Reporters Without Borders Media Freedom Report of 2022. Telegram is the most popular social media platform in Russia, with almost a fifth of Russians getting their news from its channels, many of which are related to Kremlin projects.
During a weapons presentation at the Russian Special Forces university, Ramzan Kadyrov said in an interview with RIA Novosti he was "thinking about creating an army so that we can move to different states and defend the nations that are infringing on those countries that call themselves the most democratic". Kadyrov first spoke of his plan to lead an army of mercenaries in February, praising the effectiveness of the notorious Wagner mercenary group.
Reznikov 'confident' that Ukraine will receive modern fighter jets. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov expressed his confidence that Ukraine would receive fighter jets in a television interview on May 1.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has officially described the current political regime in Russia as "Ruscism" and condemned it on the legislative level.
The decree was adopted as a statement and reads like this: "The statement of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine "About recognising the existing political regime in Russia as Ruscism and condemning its ideological foundations and social practices as totalitarian and misanthropic."
Denmark to send $250 million worth of military aid in record package to Ukraine. Denmark will provide Ukraine with the biggest military aid pacakage to date worth $250 million, the Danish Broadcasting Corporation reported on May 2, citing Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.
Polish president: 'We will do everything to ensure Ukraine joins EU as soon as possible'. Poland will make every effort during its presidency of the EU Council to ensure Ukraine and Moldova become members of the bloc, Polish President Andrzej Duda said on May 1 during a joint speech with the country's prime minister.
Russia’s relations with Poland have worsened, with state news agencies reporting today that Poland’s chargé d’affaires has been summoned to protest what Moscow has called the “seizure” of its embassy school in Warsaw. Reuters report Russia has pledged a “harsh” response after Polish police shut down the school on Saturday, saying that the premises belonged to the Polish state.
As reported by the German Press Agency (DPA), members of the Alliance as the United States and Germany have recently made it clear behind closed doors that they do not want to take on any obligations that would go beyond the vague NATO declaration of 2008. According to diplomats, opponents of the specific prospect of accession explain their position by the fact that this goal is currently not realistic and can distract from much more important support for Ukraine. (to be verified)
On Monday, White House spokesman John Kirby said that Russia has been losing a massive number of personnel, approximately 100,000 just since December. "Just since December, we estimate that Russia has suffered more than 100,000 casualties, including over 20,000 killed in action, nearly half of whom were Wagner soldiers"—John Kirby.
Pope Francis on Sunday told reporters that the Vatican is part of the mission to end the war in Ukraine. "President Zelensky did not agree to such discussions on behalf of Ukraine. If negotiations are taking place, then without our knowledge or our blessing," a Ukrainian official close to the president's office told the publication.
In Washington, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy emphatically stressed his support for military aid to Ukraine on Monday, blistering Russia’s “killing of the children” and distancing himself from some in his party who oppose additional major US aid to stave off the Russian invasion.
“I vote for aid for Ukraine. I support aid for Ukraine,” McCarthy said, responding to a question from a Russian reporter. “I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine, I do not support your killing of the children either.”
“You should pull out,” McCarthy told the Russian reporter. “We will continue to support – because the rest of the world sees it just as it is.”
The Vice interview with Maria Lvova-Belova by Isobel Yeung caused a backlash from the Ukrainian community and its allies across the world, and rightly so. In the spirit of bothsideism, the journalist forgot something fundamental: what Russia did is a violation of international law. Full-stop. There is no two sides to the argument.
What new information did this interview bring? Nothing. We know what Russia has done. Lvov’s-Belova is a criminal, and she was afforded a national platform, unavailable to the victims of her crime. Why hasn’t Vice interviewed the parents of these children?
CBC: 2 Canadians killed in Bakhmut. Two Canadian nationals have been killed in action around Bakhmut, a city in the eastern Donetsk Oblast that has become the focus of the longest and one of the bloodiest battles since the full-scale invasion began.
Ukraine seeks to join Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. President Volodymyr Zelensky has approved the delegation that will participate in negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Members of Russia’s political opposition convened in Berlin, signing a joint “Declaration of Russia’s Democratic Forces.” The declaration, published in the form of a petition on Change.org, outlines the changes that the coalition would like to see happen in Russia’s internal political order, without mentioning the specifics of who should be responsible for realizing that vision, and by what methods. On May 1, the declaration had been signed by over 7,000 people, including Mikhail Khodorkovsky and a number of other public figures, excluding members of Team Navalny.
Who were the blockheads in Sidney wearing the ‘Z’ symbol?
The Twitter OSINT community came together in the past few days to figure out the identities of a group of men who pulled a propaganda operation at the Sydney Town Hall, in Australia, following a performance of the Russian Orthodox Male Choir on April 28.
The men entered the hall and walked to the front of the stage, and spread out in a row. In support of Putin and Russia’s war against Ukraine, they were all wearing black t-shirts with the Russian ‘Z’ symbol, and the St George’s orange and black ribbons. The operation was being livestreamed by Chriscoveries, a protest channel.
Australia’s ABC News reports that the Russian Orthodox Male choir “condemned” the group, "who sought to sow the seeds of division in an attempt to taint the image of this concert," the statement read. Ukraine's Ambassador to Australia Vasyl Myroshnychenko has condemned the group's attendance as a "disgusting public display".
Will Putin attend the BRICS summit?
Initially, the South African government in Pretoria had put out a statement confirming that Putin could not attend the BRICS summit due for August because of the arrest warrant issued by the ICC.
Then they back-tracked and said that they would not honour the ICC decision, allowing Putin his day in South Africa.
When that caused an understandable diplomatic hoop-la, the Prime Minister said there had been a mistake and the South African government would honour the arrest warrant.
Yesterday several media outlets reported that the South African leader would try to resolve the problem allowing Putin to attend via Zoom.
By evening the tune had changed once again. South Africa was trying to convince Putin not to come.
I wonder who is stepping in diplomatically to cause all these changes in the position of the South African government?
Leave Ukraine & against NATO and the EU
At the May 1st Labour Day celebrations in Torino, this banner made its way through the streets to Piazza San Carlo. It reads: “Out of the War, against NATO, EU and the Meloni government”. The banner does not have any union logo, so we’ll have to wait for reporting from Torino on who is behind this particular message.
May 1st is supposed to be about the workers, their values and what they believe in, and it has turned into another occasion for the pro-Kremlin forces in Italy to make their voices front and centre. I’ve written about pro-Kremlin vectors in Italy in past posts, and they are advocating the unilateral disarmament of Ukraine. At the head of this chorus is former prime minister Giuseppe Conte, but he can count on public figures across the political spectrum, the academic world, diplomatic channels and the business elite.
It is simply beyond me how anyone can sustain the Kremlin and its leadership and forces after all that we have seen.
Julia Davis’s Russian Media Monitor clip, “Meanwhile in Russia”, features former Children's Ombudsman Pavel Astakhov who argues that murdering Ambassadors is fully within the framework of international law. He wonders why the Polish Ambassador is yet to be found floating in the Moskva River.
CDS Daily Brief, Levada Centre- new polling
The Levada Centre conducted a poll that showed a slight increase in the percentage of Russians supporting the war in Ukraine in April 2022 compared to the same period in 2021.
The number of Russians who didn't care about the war remained unchanged at 16%. The poll found that 75% of Russians support the war, an increase of one percent from the previous year, while 16% do not support it, a decrease of three percent from the prior year.
Nearly one-fifth of Russians who support the war believe that their cause is just, and they are patriotic and support their country, army, and president. Sixteen percent support the war for Russia's security, peace, and to prevent a war on Russian territory.
Fourteen percent justify the war by claiming that they are fighting against Nazis. The same number of Russians believe the war protects Russians or compatriots in Donbas. Six percent believe that "if we started the war, we need to finish it."
Only five percent of Russians claim that the war's aim is to push NATO further from the Russian borders, and four percent support the war to reconquer historical Russian lands.
Programming notes…
EuroFile on zoom: We’ll be holding our first zoom meet for paid subscribers to chat about current affairs, your questions, and just to get to know each other today at 6pm CET. I’ll be sending out the link an hour before. I hope to see you there.
In the meantime, I hope you enjoy the talk below.
Sergej Sumlenny and Yevhen Hlibovystsky talk about how Ukrainians saw Russia’s re-invasion in February 2022, and what security strategies Ukraine has implemented since February 2022.