May 4: E-Stories
Day 435: Kherson Kyiv Bakhmut UAcyber RUpreps Bryansk Simferopol Sevastopol Bulgaria EU1Bln UAgrain KingCharlie Ze-Finland Gvaramia Tucker A&Ps Avdeeva Lexmann ISW mines UKDef NYT ChrisOWiki Metz FCDO
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Zelensky administration advisor Podolyak says Russia has changed tactics in hopes of hastening Ukrainian counteroffensive. Massive Russian missile attacks aim at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to military, industrial, and logistics infrastructure, as confirmed by the U.K. Defense Ministry on May 3.
Suspilne reports that at least three people have been killed and five wounded in a strike on a supermarket in Kherson on Wednesday.
Ukrainian military shoots down all drones fired at Kyiv overnight. Ukraine's air defenses shot down all the Iranian-made drones that Russia'a fired at the capital overnight on May 3, the Kyiv City Military Administration reported on Telegram.
CDS Daily Brief: The Ukrainian Defense Forces have regained the initiative in some areas of Bakhmut, and the Russian forces have not been able to cut Ukrainian logistical lines.
Air Force: 21 out of 26 Iranian-made Shahed drones downed over Ukraine. Ukraine's Air Force reported shooting down 21 out of 26 Iranian-made Shahed "kamikaze" drones Russia launched at Ukraine overnight on May 3.
Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Maryinka, and Novomykhailivka. The enemy attacked Severne, southwest of Avdiivka, near Krasnohorivka, and have made some progress in western Maryinka, advancing slightly towards the eastern outskirts of Vuhledar. The Defense Forces counterattacked near Vodyane.
The Ukrainian Government Cyber Emergency Response Team, CERT-UA, monitors the activities of more than 80 hacker groups, most of which are those from the Russian Federation, while 90% of their members are Russian military operatives. Russian operators are attacking in cyberspace as much as they are on the ground.
CDS Daily Brief: The Ukrainian authorities have stated they will not prosecute residents of annexed territories who obtained Russian passports. According to Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the President of Ukraine's office, individuals who received Russian passports "under duress" will not face any claims from the authorities.
Prigozhin has said he believes Ukraine’s counteroffensive has begun, after seeing more activity along the frontline. In a statement published by his press service on Telegram, Prigozhin said that the “active phase” of the counteroffensive would begin in the coming days, Reuters reports.
The White House predicts that the expected counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops will turn into "carnage" as reported by The Washington Post. "The rate at which Russian forces are being killed or wounded in Ukraine has spiked in recent months, according to estimates disclosed by the White House this week," the Washington Post says: since December alone, some 20,000 Russians have been killed in action, and another 80,000 have been wounded. The US has said that such fierce fighting shows that the bloody carnage may become even worse after the start of Kyiv's counteroffensive to retake the occupied territories.
The Russian military attempts to create a unified command structure for Russian paramilitary units operating in Ukraine. Still, the emergence of new PMCs has created problems with material and technical support, coordination, and intelligence. Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. New PMCs such as "Potok", "Veterany", "Yenisey", "Scythian", "Tiger", "Ibris", "Lynx" and "Wolves" have appeared in Ukraine, which has exacerbated problems with their material and technical support, C2, intelligence, and coordination.
Russia’s security services claim to have foiled a plot to attack leaders of the Russian-imposed government in Crimea. Tass reports that the FSB named Roman Mashovets, deputy head of the office of the president of Ukraine, as one of the architects of the plot, without providing evidence. The FSB said it had detained six citizens of Russia and Ukraine, as well as a citizen of Ukraine and Bulgaria, involved in the transport of explosives and components of explosive devices.
The Russian authorities in occupied territory of Ukraine have imposed strict new measures on civilians. Most recently, they have “reinforced” counterintelligence units and are restricting travel between towns and villages, Ukraine’s military high command said.
CDS Daily Brief: Mariupol city council reports that high school students are being coerced into writing letters of gratitude to Russian occupiers. The students have been given template letters of gratitude, and each student is required to thank the Russian occupier for their "special military operation" and repeat the Russian propaganda about the Nazis and the unity of the people.
Russia’s defense minister, Shoigu, called for quickly doubling Russian production of guided missiles and speeding up the replenishment of other weapons and military equipment.
Local authorities report oil depot fire in Russia's southwestern Krasnodar region. A fuel storage facility in Russia's southwestern Krasnodar region, located near the Crimean Bridge, was on fire early on May 3, the regional governor reported on Telegram.
Explosion reported near Russian-occupied Simferopol. An explosion reportedly occurred in a former training base for border guards near the village of Shkolnoye, a few kilometers from the Simferopol airport, on May 2, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Railway line reportedly sabotaged in Russia's Bryansk region. A railway was blown up in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, a region bordering Ukraine in the northeast, resulting in a train derailing, according to Russian media reports on May 2.
Explosion wounds top proxy official in Russian-occupied Melitopol. The Russian-installed deputy head of the Internal Affairs regional office in Zaporizhzhia Oblast was reportedly hospitalized after opening his gate where an explosive device had been planted, according to Russian media reports.
General Milley says Ukraine has the capability for counteroffensive. Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said Ukraine has the capability to conduct offensive operations in an interview with Foreign Affairs published on May 2.
Russian occupation “authorities” have established so-called “draft committees,” which are to facilitate coerced mobilization in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast, Mariupol City Council reported via Telegram on may 1. “The leader of the so-called 'DPR,' Denis Pushilin, signed an order to create such 'committees,” the message reads.
Putin remotely attended a ceremony held in occupied Mariupol to mark the resumption of local trolley service. St. Petersburg officials also sent four Leningrad Siege survivors to the event to talk about the symbolism of restoring public transit after a blockade.
Attempted to blow up the Prosecutor General of Bulgaria after the start of the investigation on sanctions against Russia. According to Safarov, the deputy ProGen, an explosive device was planted on the highway between Sofia and the city of Samokov, it contained about 3 kg of TNT and damaging elements. A crater with a diameter of about 3 m and a depth of about 40 cm formed at the site of the explosion. Before the trip, Geshev demanded that government officials report on how the country is implementing EU sanctions against Russia
Meduza found out how Russian propaganda will prepare Russians for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, by obtaining a manual prepared by the presidential administration.
The Kremlin is asking propagandists “not to underestimate the announced counter-offensive of Ukraine with NATO support” and not to say that “Kyiv is allegedly not ready for a “counter-offensive”.” The pro-government media, on the contrary, should focus on the fact that Western countries supply Kyiv with weapons and support Ukraine in every possible way.
Zelensky visited Finland for summit with Nordic leaders. President Zelensky was in Finland for a one-day summit with leaders of the Nordic countries, the Washington Post reported on May 3.
Blinken: Ukraine's success on battlefield quickest way to 'just and durable peace.' U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Fox News on May 2 that Washington knew Ukraine was contemplating a counteroffensive "in the coming weeks," and it was monitoring the course of events.
The EU has unveiled a plan to boost its defence industry and speed up the supply of ammunition to Ukraine. Public funds could allow factories manufacturing shells and missiles to expand or modernise production capacity or train workers. Breton said the actual figure could be €1bn as member states could match the EU funds.
EU to announce 1 million shell production plan per year. Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner for Internal Market, will announce the plan to meet Ukraine's military needs and replenish the EU's reserves on May 3, the AFP reported.
EU Commission bans import of some Ukrainian grain until June 5. The EU Commission put in place a month-long ban on wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds to "alleviate logistical bottlenecks" related to these goods in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia.
Ukraine's MFA reacted to the German DPA article expressing skepticism of Berlin about Kyiv's chances to acquire NATO membership. "Ukraine is not a problem, but an advantage for NATO," Ukraine's MFA spokesperson stated.
Polskie Radio: Polish PM says Poland will not be intimidated by Russian threats. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Russian threats should be taken seriously but will not intimidate Poland, Polskie Radio reported on May 2. His comments respond to the propagandist attacks on the Polish Ambassador to Russia.
The UK’s attention has “not been taken off the Wagner group at any point”, the government said, amid questions about whether the Russian mercenary outfit has had any involvement in Sudan’s uprising.
Ukraine launches new missing persons register. The register will include basic information such as the person's name, place and date of birth, marital status, place of residence, last known location, circumstances and time of their disappearance, the Reintegration Ministry wrote.
Putin not invited to King Charles' coronation. The U.K. didn't send invitations to King Charles' coronation ceremony on May 6 to the heads of Russia, Belarus, Iran, Myanmar, Syria, Afghanistan, and Venezuela, a British source told Reuters.
Tucker’s in trouble. The text message that sent Fox executives into panic. During his show over the years, Carlson amplified the ideology of white nationalism. But the text message revealed more about his views on racial superiority. Owing to the possible legal challenges that could be brought against him and the network, Carlson is simply more trouble than he is worth to the network.
On Russian prisoner recruitment…
According to Olga Romanova, the head of the 'Russia Behind Bars' human rights group – which campaigns for prisoners' rights – convicts are still being recruited on a huge scale to fight, despite the Wagner Group no longer being allowed to recruit from Russian jails.
Romanova says that since February 2023, prisoner recruitment has been carried out by the Russian government rather than Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner Group. The pace of recruitment has recently increased drastically, likely to replace heavy Russian losses on the battlefield.
Hundreds of people are said to have been taken simultaneously from prison colonies across Russia – a total of about 10,000 people just in the month of April. The convicts are required to sign a document agreeing not to disclose any information about their recruitment.
Surplus prisoners are given to Wagner when the regular military is unable to handle the numbers. Wagner itself is reported to have recruited some 49,000 prisoners by 1 February 2023.
Of these, 77% were listed as combat and non-combat casualties (i.e. including escaped and surrendered prisoners). Those captured by Ukraine are recorded as killed and compensation is paid to their wives. "Prigozhin is afraid of the surrender statistics," says Romanova.
Despite the huge casualty numbers, convicts are still evidently willing to sign up to fight. Romanova says that prisoners complain about the colony authorities crossing them off the list of those who signed up for the war.
As SOTA notes, "The colony bosses do not benefit from sending prisoners to the front as this deprives them of bribes for parole and income from work in the [prison's] industrial zone."
‘The Godfather of A.I.’ Leaves Google and Warns of Danger Ahead
For half a century, Geoffrey Hinton nurtured the technology at the heart of chatbots like ChatGPT. Now he worries it will cause serious harm.
By Cade Metz, The New York Times, May 1, 2023
Geoffrey Hinton was an artificial intelligence pioneer. In 2012, Dr. Hinton and two of his graduate students at the University of Toronto created technology that became the intellectual foundation for the A.I. systems that the tech industry’s biggest companies believe is a key to their future.
On Monday, however, he officially joined a growing chorus of critics who say those companies are racing toward danger with their aggressive campaign to create products based on generative artificial intelligence, the technology that powers popular chatbots like ChatGPT.
But gnawing at many industry insiders is a fear that they are releasing something dangerous into the wild. Generative A.I. can already be a tool for misinformation. Soon, it could be a risk to jobs. Somewhere down the line, tech’s biggest worriers say, it could be a risk to humanity.
“It is hard to see how you can prevent the bad actors from using it for bad things,” Dr. Hinton said.