May 4: E-Stories
InUkraine SitRep BehindLines Russia-China Europe RUsanctions Singapore Kharkiv Kyiv Odesa F16School SukhumiAirport May9Attendees Malhuret ShawnWalker USscientists
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Russia used thermobaric weapons in drone strike on Kharkiv, Ukrainian prosecutors say. Thermobaric munitions is a type of weapon known for generating powerful blast waves and high-temperature clouds, causing severe destruction and posing extreme risks to civilians.
Russian terror continues, each day in Kherson. Russian forces attacked downtown Kherson with drones. Preliminary reports: 1 killed, 5 injured, — regional administration.
Russian drone attack on Kyiv injures 11 people, including 2 children, damages shopping mall. Debris from the drones damaged houses and vehicles in several areas of the city, including the Shevchenkivskyi, Obolonskyi, and Svyatoshynskyi districts.
Zelensky: Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire starting May 7, but for 30 days. A 3-day truce, as proposed by Putin, is insufficient to develop further steps for ending the war. Ukraine is prepared for a serious, long-term approach.
In a press conference with the Czech PM Petr Pavel, Zelensky announced the establishment of a Ukrainian-Czech F-16 school within the aviation coalition, to be located outside Ukraine due to security reasons.
"We’re working with partners to open these schools outside Ukraine as we continue to face daily Russian strikes," Zelensky said.
Combat Situation
Ukraine destroyed two Russian aircraft in 24 hours — Zelensky reveals details of unique operations. The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) just now released a video showing the destruction of a Russian Su-30 over the Black Sea. The USV is a type Magura V5. This is the first confirmed destruction of fixed wing aircraft by a naval USV. So, the Ukrainians are now taking out Russians jets with naval drones.
ISW: President Zelensky denied that Ukraine would concede to the vague terms of Russian President Vladimir Putin's unilateral May 8-11 Victory Day ceasefire proposal.
Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Novopavlivka, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Ukraine confirms capture of 2 Togolese nationals fighting for Russia. Togo’s Foreign Ministry earlier said the detainees had been misled into leaving the country with promises of scholarships to study in Russia.
Putin claims Russia was "forced" to support Crimea and Sevastopol in 2014, calling it the right decision. Despite sanctions, he says Russia made strong progress. He admits Russia wasn't prepared for the Special Military Operation, hoping for a peaceful resolution in Donbas but claiming the other side acted differently. He also insists Russia was deceived by the Minsk agreements. This narrative has been pushed by Russia for years.
Behind the Lines
The UK has officially transferred all AS-90 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, marking the end of their use in the British Army. The delivery includes 68 systems over three batches, with the latest arriving in early 2025
ISW: Senior Kremlin officials continue to set informational conditions that could support military operations against Lithuania (and other NATO states) by advancing narratives that deny the sovereignty of Lithuania and other former Soviet states.
France to ramp up AASM Hammer smart bomb production for Ukraine, media reports. The French-made precision bombs are being transferred to Kyiv as part of ongoing defense support, and their use by Ukrainian fighter jets has grown significantly since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
EU condemns Russia's decision to launch commercial flights to occupied Abkhazia. "This action, taken without the consent of the Georgian authorities and in the absence of a necessary international aviation code for the Sukhumi airport, is yet another step by the Russian Federation violating Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity," a statement from Anouar El Anouni, Spokesperson for EU Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, read.
BBC News, Eight arrested in two separate anti-terror operations
Five were arrested at various locations around England on Saturday as part of a "pre-planned" investigation into a plot to "target a specific premises", the Metropolitan Police said.
Four - two aged 29, one aged 40 and one aged 46 - are Iranian nationals. Police said the nationality and age of the fifth was still being established.
Three other men, all Iranian, were arrested in London on Saturday as part of a separate counter-terror police investigation. Police said the two operations were not connected.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
In Washington, a "Immortal Regiment" march was allowed—Russians paraded from the White House to the WWII Memorial chanting "Victory" and "We wish you health." Ukrainian and pro-Ukraine activists were present, holding signs in support of Ukraine to remind Americans that Russia is a terrorist state.
“About two dozen international leaders are expected to attend the celebrations in Moscow, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and possibly North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, according to Russian news agency RBC. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and other leaders of the CIS countries will also attend the celebrations in Moscow.
Of the EU leaders, only Vucic had said they would travel to Moscow but now have suddenly fallen ill.” Fico had announced that he wasn’t well but he will be attending after all.
Modi and Tokarev have canceled their attendance to Moscow's Victory Day parade, and Modi will not be sending the Deputy Minister of Defence either.
About 29,000 sanctions have been imposed on Russia since 2014 — 5x more than on Iran. The U.S. leads with 7,300+ sanctions, followed by Canada, Switzerland, and France. Singapore (5) and South Korea (24) imposed the fewest.
Business Insider: China claims an island in the South China Sea. Satellite images show Beijing's growing power-hungry struggle in the region.
Over the last decade, China has expanded hundreds of miles south by building artificial islands over underwater reefs in the Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
Tensions between China and the Philippines are heating up over tiny sandbars and coral reefs in the South China Sea, and the US could get caught in the middle.
"We should be worried about it," Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, told Business Insider.
The satellite images below show China's massive expansion across the South China Sea, which has turned open waters into a looming battleground that could rope the US in.
Satellite images show that China has militarized Mischief Reef with missile systems, fighter jets, naval ships, and more.
In the EU…
Romania Votes: George Simion is comfortably ahead in the opinion polls before the first-round vote. Romanians could propel to power an ultranationalist who opposes military aid to Ukraine, has fiercely criticised the EU’s leadership and describes himself as a “natural ally” of Donald Trump.
The Guardian, France and EU to incentivise US-based scientists to come to Europe
France and the EU are to step up their efforts to attract US-based scientists hit by Donald Trump’s crackdown on academia, as they prepare announcements on incentives for researchers to settle in Europe.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, alongside the European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, will make speeches on Monday morning at Sorbonne University in Paris, flanked by European university leaders and researchers, in which they are expected to announce potential incentives and protections for researchers seeking to relocate to Europe.
Claude Malhuret, Message à mes amis américains (with English subtitles)
Shaun Walker, ‘These people are disposable’: how Russia is using online recruits for a campaign of sabotage in Europe
In Serhiy S’s backpack, the officers found firelighter cubes, a juice bottle filled with paraffin, a lighter, two pocket knives, a mini handsaw and a face mask. Later, when they searched the mobile phone of the 49-year-old Ukrainian refugee, they found a pdf of a Russian-language book called Modern Pyrotechnics. It contained detailed instructions on how to start fires and detonate explosives. He is accused of being foot soldiers in a new front of Russia’s war against the west.
European intelligence agencies say Moscow has launched a campaign of sabotage, arson and disinformation against the continent. Sometimes, it is focused on specific targets related to support for the Ukrainian war effort, but more often it is simply aimed at causing chaos and unease.
In Lithuania, an Ikea shop was set on fire; in Britain, seven people were charged over an arson attack on a business with links to Ukraine; in France, five coffins inscribed with the words “French soldiers in Ukraine” were left under the Eiffel Tower; in Estonia, the car windows of the interior minister and a local journalist were smashed. There have been numerous suspicious fires in Poland, including one that destroyed a huge shopping centre in Warsaw.
In other news…
Gene Seroka: Port of Los Angeles volume has dropped off by 30%.
Singapore's ruling People's Action Party (PAP) has won by a landslide in an election dominated by concerns over the cost of living and the country's future economic stability.
Led by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in his first election since he became party leader last year, the PAP clinched 65.6% of the vote and an overwhelming majority of the 97 seats in parliament.
Singaporeans went to the polls on Saturday worrying about inflation, wage stagnation and job prospects. The result will be widely seen as a flight to safety to the PAP amid fears of global turbulence.
