May 4: E-Stories
RUattacksUS CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies Georgia Macron UKelex A&P Zelensky Buziashvili UKDef ISW NATO USState Kenyon Davis EEDef Cameron TheEconomist LBC Trump
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
May 1: Tblisi, Georgia.
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks kill 8, injure 40 in Ukraine over past day. Officials reported civilian casualties in Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk oblasts.
Emergency services in Odesa extinguished the fire that occurred as a result of the missile attack. The Nova Poshta warehouse completely burned down. 14 people got injured.
Russian attacks on villages in Kharkiv, Donetsk oblasts injure 2, kill 3. A 12-year-old child is among those killed, according to the governor. Two people were hospitalized for their injuries.
Update: Death toll of Russia's April 29 strike on Odesa rises to 6. The death toll of a Russian missile attack against Odesa on April 29 has risen to six as an injured man died in the hospital, Mayor Hennadii Trukhanov said on May 1.
Governor: First 5 underground schools to be built in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Three schools will be built in the regional center of Zaporizhzhia, and the other two elsewhere in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Governor: 3 children brought back from Russian-occupied territories. At least 19,500 children have been confirmed as abducted by Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine attacked several regions in Russia overnight with UAVs. In the Oryol, Kursk, Smolensk and Rostov regions, energy infrastructure was targeted and hit in some places after which power outages occurred. In Krasnodar Krai, the Afip oil refinery was subject to attacks. Three explosions were reported by locals. Just in: a fire in a energy facility in Smolensk.
An administrative and production building is on fire in Moscow. The area of the fire is 2500 m², and the roof of the building has completely collapsed.
Military intelligence: Russia flies attack drones over occupied Zaporizhzhia plant. Russia is flying its "kamikaze" drones over the reactors of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, risking "catastrophic consequences," Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said on May 2. As evidence, the agency published intercepted camera footage of a Russian drone over the plant. Its flight path supposedly indicates a direction toward the Ukrainian-held communities of Nikopol and Marhanets.
Combat Situation Update
Military: Russia trying to break through front in 3 directions. Russia is trying to break through the front line in the east of Ukraine in three directions, Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson of the Khortytsia group of forces, said on May 2. Heavy fighting is ongoing in the sections of the front line around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka in Donetsk Oblast, Voloshyn said on air.
Fighting has reached the city limits of Chasiv Yar, Mayor Serhiy Chaus reported. Most of the people have been evacuated, although 682 civilians still remain in the city. These are mostly elderly people.
ISW: Putin met with Tula Oblast Governor and known Wagner Group affiliate Alexei Dyumin on May 2, further indicating that Putin may be seeking to reduce Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's power by balancing him with rivals.
HRW: Russia executes surrendering Ukrainian soldiers in possible war crimes. Since last December, Russian forces likely executed at least 15 Ukrainian soldiers who tried to surrender and possibly six who were already surrendering or had surrendered, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said on May 2. "These incidents should be investigated as war crimes," the NGO's statement read.
Military Intelligence: Nepalese mercenaries desert Russian army in droves. The Nepalese soldiers, assigned to military unit number 29328 of Russia's Armed Forces, are deserting due to heavy losses, non-payment of salaries, and commanders' abuse, "including executions for refusing to follow orders," Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said on May 1.
Behind the Lines
The U.S. State Department has accused Russia of violating the Chemical Weapons Convention by deploying the choking agent chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops and using riot control agents "as a method of warfare" in Ukraine. (Chloropicrin is listed as a banned choking agent by the Hague-based Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.) “The use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident, and is probably driven by Russian forces’ desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield,” argued Washington.
Read the official statement here
“Moscow must understand: They cannot win. And they cannot wait us out.” NATO’s Sec General Stoltenberg is calling for a five-year $100 billion weapons fund for Ukraine in order to help convince the Kremlin that time is not on Russia’s side.
InfoResist: The factory of a company that produces air defense systems for Ukraine is on fire in Berlin. This is the 3rd incident in 3 weeks. The other incidents were in the U.S. and UK.
In the Lichterfelde district on the south-western outskirts of Berlin, the Diehl Metal Applications company, which refines and galvanizes metals, caught fire. BILD writes about it. Diehl Metal Applications GmbH operates as a metalworking company. The company offers copper alloys, shaped parts, rings, bars, pipes, profiles, as well as metal-plastic hybrid parts. Diehl Metal Applications serves customers all over the world, including producing air defense systems for Ukraine.
Germany accuses Russia of cyberattack against governing party in 2023. Germany on May 3 blamed Russian-backed hackers for a cyberattack against members of the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) last year and promised a response, DW reported.
Speaking at a press conference in Australia, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that the investigation into the incident has concluded and pointed to Russia as the culprit. "Today we can say unambiguously... we can attribute this cyber attack to a group called APT28, which is steered by the military intelligence service of Russia," Baerbock said.
New York businessman pleads guilty to attempting to sell drone parts to Russia despite sanctions. Nikolay Grigorev, a 36-year-old Brooklyn resident, pleaded guilty to shipping components to companies affiliated with the Russian military. Co-defendants Nikita Arkhipov and Artem Oloviannikov remain at large, the statement read.
A Russian national pleaded guilty on Wednesday to lying to the FBI about his participation in an organisation that wants to restore the “Russian empire” including Ukraine. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan said Tomas Ianchauskas, a US green card holder who mainly lives in Russia, served as the regional leader of the Tsargrad Society, formerly known as the Double Headed Eagle Society. US prosecutors say the group is controlled by sanctioned Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeyev. Ianchauskas, 39, pleaded guilty to one count of making false statements to FBI agents. He faces up to six months in prison when sentenced on 11 July.
The Telegraph and Bild report that “left-wing extremists” have claimed responsibility for burning down the summer home of Armin Papperger, the CEO of the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. The extremists indicated that they object specifically to Rheinmetall’s refurbishment of German Leopard tanks that can now “be sold to Ukraine with ammunition and at a hefty profit.”
Zelensky dismisses SBU cybersecurity chief following media investigation. Illia Vitiuk — the former cybersecurity chief of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) who was suspended from his post following an investigation into his personal finances — was formally dismissed by a presidential decree issued on May 1.
Ukraine World: As you stroll along the seaside of Odesa, you may chance upon masterfully played classics emanating from a piano. In such moments, know that it is Ihor Yanchuk, performing out of sheer love for the music.
“I simply adore this. It’s a part of my life. And I also love people.” Ihor’s inspiration initially stemmed from similar concerts he witnessed in Italy. The music of Italian composers, particularly Roberto Cacciapaglia and Ludovico Einaudi, stirred something profound within him. Ihor frequently performs at dawn, regardless of the weather. Video via musanafilm on Instagram, Ihor’s words via his profile.
Economy minister: Ukraine reaches pre-war level of exports in April. Ukraine exported more than 13 million tons of products totaling $3.3 billion in April, which is higher than volumes for February 2022 before the start of the full-scale invasion, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on May 1.
The Security Service of Ukraine has raided the home of Ukrainian Orthodox Church clergyman Metropolitan Luka (born Andrii Kovalenko) reportedly on suspicion of “spreading pro-Russian propaganda and justifying Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine.” In December 2022, President Zelensky added Luka to Ukraine’s state sanctions list for “ties to the aggressor state.” In August 2023, state officials interrogated him on suspicion of “spreading religious hatred.” Last October, lawmakers in the Verkhovna Rada approved the first reading of legislation that would ban religious organizations under Russian influence, possibly jeopardizing the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (although it formally declared its independence from the Russian Orthodox Church in 2022).
Yermak: Ukraine strongly encouraging Chinese participation in upcoming global peace summit.
"China still hasn't agreed to participate in the Peace Summit. We are constantly holding consultations at various levels with our partners. We will do everything to ensure that China is present," head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak said.
Meanwhile in Russia
Gazprom reports nearly $6.9 billion in net losses in 2023. The state-owned Russian energy giant Gazprom reported a net loss of 629 billion rubles (nearly $6.9 billion) in 2023, the company's largest profit downturn in decades amidst falling gas prices and a limited European market.
Organized crime boss Dmitry Vedernikov has left prison to go fight in Ukraine, becoming the 11th mobster to escape his full prison sentence in exchange for military service in Russia’s invasion, according to journalists at Agentstvo Media. Vedernikov was first imprisoned in 2011 for extortion, robbery, robbery, and fraud. While incarcerated, in 2017 and 2022, he was convicted of several more violent crimes, including 11 murders, and dozens more cases of extortion, adding another 24 years to his sentence. Last fall, Vedernikov publicly appealed to regional officials, asking to be released from prison to fight in Ukraine, but he later said Russia’s Defense Ministry rejected his request.
Deputy of the Legislative Duma of Tomsk Ekaterina Sobkanyuk called unemployed Russians “worms on our body” and proposed recreating labor camps for them. She supported her initiative with the argument that “it still happened,” as well as the fact that there are “a lot of people” who allegedly do not want to work. A fragment of Sobkanyuk’s speech was published by NGS.RU.
“There are no concrete workers, welders, reinforcement workers, or electricians at the construction site. There are especially not enough people in winter, when it is necessary to warm up the concrete. And we have 6 months of winter. <…> We need to take some drastic measures: well, we don’t have enough people. Tomorrow we will miss even more,” the deputy emphasized.
The Lithuanian government has said there have been “false Russian claims of sabotage planned by a person who allegedly entered to Russia from Lithuania in March”.
Vilmantas Vitkauskas, head of the National Crisis Management Centre said Russia claims that a saboteur had any links to Lithuania were false.
“Russia has been systematically conducting disinformation campaigns and provocations for a long time in order to raise tensions among societies and allies and to cover its aggressive actions. This disinformation spread by the FSB is a case in point. One of the objectives of such aggressive activities is to influence Lithuania’s support for Ukraine. Disinformation will not change Lithuania’s efforts to support Ukraine in its fight for freedom.
“Given that Lithuania is currently conducting the Thunder Strike military exercise, we may see more disinformation attacks of this nature. We urge citizens to remain vigilant and those who disseminate information to be cautious about the disinformation being spread by Russia,” he said.
Estonia begins to close border crossing with Russia for night. Estonia started to regularly close the Narva-1 border crossing with Russia between 11 p.m. and 7 a.m. local time, the Estonian public broadcaster ERR reported on May 1.
Raiffeisen Bank International is preparing to order a 65% reduction of its loan book in Russia, where it operates the largest foreign-owned bank. That would mean cutting loan volumes in the country to about 2.2 billion euros ($2.4 billion). CEO Johann Strobl said in a call with analysts on Thursday that the European Central Bank wants the wind-down to start in the third quarter, partly even earlier. In the first quarter of 2024, about half of Raiffeisen Bank’s net income came from operations in Russia and Belarus.
The military strengthening of Latvia's eastern border and the implementation of the anti-mobility plan are part of the creation of the Baltic defense line. The first defensive line will be created at a distance of about a kilometer from the border with Russia, near the Terehovo border checkpoint in the Ludza region.
Allied Support
G7 agrees to reduce dependency on Russian nuclear energy supplies. "We note the ongoing efforts by countries which operate Russian-designed reactors to make progress in securing alternative nuclear fuel contracts and to reduce dependencies related to spare parts, components, and services," read the statement issued after a two-day ministerial summit in Torino, Italy.
"The Polish presidency of the Council of the EU in 2025 should focus on deepening the EU's contacts with the US, the European integration of Ukraine and Moldova, and the reconstruction of Ukraine," Polish President Andrzej Duda said in a speech on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of Poland's accession to the EU.
British Foreign Minister, David Cameron: My message from Kyiv: supporting Ukraine's security is the best investment we can make in our security.
Weapons supplied by Britain to Ukraine can be used to strike inside Russia, David Cameron said on Thursday, as the UK foreign secretary promised £3bn a year “for as long as it is necessary” to help Kyiv.
Zelensky confirms date of Switzerland peace summit, Russia not invited. Ukraine's peace summit in Switzerland will be held on June 15-16, according to an agreement between Kyiv and Bern. Russia, the aggressor in the ongoing war, will not be invited "at this stage" of the talks, the Swiss government said. Ukraine's FM Kuleba justified the decision not to invite Russia in a comment for the Foreign Policy magazine:
"Our approach comes from reality, and from the experience that we (have) gained... Between 2014 and 2022, we had almost 200 rounds of talks with Russia in different formats, with mediators and" bilaterally. But nothing worked. It ended up in the large-scale invasion (of 2022)."
Belarusian Leader in Exile—Svitalana Tsichanouvskaya: Today is an important historical day. The democratic forces of #Belarus formalized relations with the EU Parliament and signed a letter of intent on cooperation. I want to thank all MEPs and especially Roberta Metsola, EU Parliament President, for this strong and unprecedented step.
Dear Roberta, your unwavering courage and resolute leadership inspire me every day. I deeply respect your commitment to upholding European values and cherish our friendship immensely. We will work with the European Parliament to free political prisoners, hold the regime accountable, and help independent media and civil society.
Together, we will solve the migration issues of Belarusians who are in the European Union and cannot return home. Together, we will counter Russian aggression and strengthen Belarusian society and our national identity.
This agreement is a recognition of the courage and heroism of all Belarusians who are fighting for democratic changes in our country. Belarus will definitely be a free, independent, European state.
Long Live Europe! Long live Belarus!
US military battalion to remain in Lithuania indefinitely. The American military battalion stationed in Lithuania will remain in the country indefinitely, not just until 2025 as previously planned, Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas said on May 2.
Eto Buziashvili: Another tactic from the Kremlin playbook that the Georgian govt has adopted to disperse protests is usage of Titushky. The term was coined during Ukraine's Euromaidan to describe a group of unidentified provocateurs who incite violence to facilitate the arrest of protesters.
U.S. Department of State official readout on Georgia’s Western Trajectory at Risk
The United States condemns the Kremlin-inspired “foreign influence” legislation advanced in Georgia’s parliament earlier today and the false narrative government officials have adopted to defend it. Members of the ruling party have been clear that the intent of the law is to silence critical voices and destroy Georgia’s vibrant civil society, which serves as a critical check on government in any democratic nation.
This legislation and Georgian Dream’s anti-Western rhetoric put Georgia on a precarious trajectory. The statements and actions of the Georgian government are incompatible with the democratic values that underpin membership in the EU and NATO and thus jeopardize Georgia’s path to Euro-Atlantic integration. Comments mischaracterizing foreign assistance in Georgia – which we have provided for 32 years to strengthen Georgia’s economy, democracy, and ability to deter Russian aggression – fundamentally undermine the strong relationship we have developed with the government and people of Georgia.
We stand with the Georgian people and their right to have their voices heard. We condemn the use of violence against peaceful protests, including against journalists covering the demonstrations. Use of force to suppress peaceful assembly and freedom of speech is unacceptable, and we urge authorities to allow non-violent protesters to continue to exercise their right to freedom of expression.
Protesters in Tblisi chase out the riot police:
The Economist: Emmanuel Macron’s Urgent Message for Europe
Mr Macron’s message is as compelling as it is alarming. In our interview, he warned that Europe faces imminent danger, declaring that “things can fall apart very quickly”. He also spoke of the mountain of work ahead to make Europe safe. But he is bedevilled by unpopularity at home and poor relations with Germany. Like other gloomy visionaries, he faces the risk that his message is ignored.
The driving force behind Mr Macron’s warning is the invasion of Ukraine. War has changed Russia. Flouting international law, issuing nuclear threats, investing heavily in arms and hybrid tactics, it has embraced “aggression in all known domains of conflict”. Now Russia knows no limits, he argues. Moldova, Lithuania, Poland, Romania or any neighbouring country could all be its targets. If it wins in Ukraine, European security will lie in ruins.
Europe must wake up to this new danger. Mr Macron refuses to back down from his declaration in February that Europe should not rule out putting troops in Ukraine. This elicited horror and fury from some of his allies, but he insists their wariness will only encourage Russia to press on: “We have undoubtedly been too hesitant by defining the limits of our action to someone who no longer has any and who is the aggressor.”
Mr Macron is adamant that, whoever is in the White House in 2025, Europe must shake off its decades-long military dependence on America and with it the head-in-the-sand reluctance to take hard power seriously. “My responsibility,” he says, “is never to put [America] in a strategic dilemma that would mean choosing between Europeans and [its] own interests in the face of China.” He calls for an “existential” debate to take place within months. Bringing in non-eu countries like Britain and Norway, this would create a new framework for European defence that puts less of a burden on America. He is willing to discuss extending the protection afforded by France’s nuclear weapons, which would dramatically break from Gaullist orthodoxy and transform France’s relations with the rest of Europe.
Mr Macron’s second theme is that an alarming industrial gap has opened up as Europe has fallen behind America and China. For Mr Macron, this is part of a broader dependence in energy and technology, especially in renewables and artificial intelligence. Europe must respond now, or it may never catch up. He says the Americans “have stopped trying to get the Chinese to conform to the rules of international trade”. Calling the Inflation Reduction Act “a conceptual revolution”, he accuses America of being like China by subsidising its critical industries. “You can’t carry on as if this isn’t happening,” he says.
He also wants a profound change to the way Europe works. He would double research spending, deregulate industry, free up capital markets and sharpen Europeans’ appetite for risk. He is scathing about the dishing-out of subsidies and contracts so that each country gets back more or less what it puts in. Europe needs specialisation and scale, even if some countries lose out, he says. [continue]
CNN: Trump Media’s accounting firm charged with ‘massive fraud’
BF Borgers, Trump Media & Technology Group’s independent accounting firm, was charged by the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday with widespread fraud impacting more than 1,500 filings.
The SEC made no allegation of wrongdoing against Trump Media, which is not mentioned in the charges from the regulator.
Politico: Conservatives take a beating in local elections in the UK
As the initial results came in Friday morning, it was clear Rishi Sunak had suffered a bad night. The party lost the Blackpool South by-election to Labour on a 20-point swing, and had already shed more than 100 councillors across the country. Labour bagged key targets, taking control of councils in Redditch, Thurrock and Hartlepool.
Shedding hundreds of local councillors, as is forecast, would be a terrible result for the prime minister ahead of a general election in which he has only slim prospects of retaining power.
Will Sunak lose his grip over the party and the government? Some factions within the Tory party seem to be plotting his demise.
They anticipated this scenario would lead to a “growing number” of Conservatives writing their letters calling for a vote of no confidence to Graham Brady, the Tory veteran who in his role as chairman of the 1922 Committee oversees such oustings.
The crucial number of letters to trigger a vote of all Conservative MPs is 52. Many are doubtful the rebels can raise that number, and even if they do, the wider party is considered unlikely to dispose of Sunak so close to the general election.