May 6: E-Stories
RUattacksUA CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies A&P Zelensky ISW UKDef Lautman FarrellKI NATO Raik Amanpour Georgia TheHardestHour MugaNAFO Kenyon
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Easter was celebrated in Ukraine and across the Orthodox world. President Zelensky’s Easter address:
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 4 people, injure 19 over past day. Russian forces targeted nine of Ukraine's oblasts – Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Odesa, Kherson, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Casualties were reported in the latter four regions.
Update: Russian glide bomb attack injures 15 in downtown Kharkiv. Russian forces hit two sites in the residential area of Kharkiv as Ukraine marked Orthodox Easter.
Oleksandr Scherba: Russians have dropped a bomb on a prayer house in Ukrainian Donbas, extra bombing Ukrainian Christians on Orthodox Easter. By a miracle, the bomb has not exploded. This is Ukrainians' Easter reality.
Official: Russia hits power plant in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces struck the Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant in Donetsk Oblast with five heavy artillery rockets, damaging several sites at the power plant, deputy head of Mykolaivka City Military Administration Volodymyr Proskunin said on May 5.
Russian drone attack on Donetsk Oblast village injures 3 people. Russian forces attacked the village of Mykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast's Pokrovsk district on May 5, injuring three people, the regional prosecutor's office reported.
Combat Situation Update
Ukrainian and Russian forces clashed 103 times on 5 May. Specifically, the Defence Forces of Ukraine repelled 32 Russian attacks on the Bakhmut front, and 24 on the Avdiivka front reports the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Over the past day the aircraft of the Defence Forces of Ukraine struck 13 clusters of Russian personnel and four anti-aircraft systems of the Russians. Ukrainian Rocket Forces and Artillery units struck one cluster of personnel, three radar stations, two air defence systems and two artillery systems of the Russians.
Russian forces appear to be choosing to exploit the area where Russian forces are most likely to make tactical gains in the near future, but it is unclear if they will continue to drive north toward Toretsk or return to their previous focus on Pokrovsk to the northwest.
Russian forces made a notable tactical advance northwest of Avdiivka near Arkhanhelske on the night of May 3 to 4, likely following a Ukrainian decision to withdraw from the area on May 3.
BBC: Russia lures Cubans to army with offers of high pay, Russian passport. Leaked documents reveal that Russia has been coercing Cuban citizens into the Russian Armed Forces with salaries of approximately $2,000 per month, in addition to offers of a Russian passports within months of signing up, a BBC investigation revealed on May 4.
Russian soldiers complain about the state of affairs, that they are not getting paid.
"We are not allowed to go on vacation. No rotation. 11 months we were in the forest. We didn't get paid and they let nobody go. Now, no matter what happens to us, we send this video. Otherwise, the consequences can be bad for us, probably."
Financial Times: Ukraine will look to mount a new counteroffensive in 2025 after receiving $61bn in US military aid to help it stop Russia from making additional gains this year, Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser said.
"I still expect Russian advances in the coming period on the battlefield, despite the new US funding package approved last month, because you can’t instantly flip the switch," he added.
Noel Report—An Easter message from the troops: they had hoped to celebrate Easter differently. Think about those in the trenches and fields. Respect their courage and bravery.
La Repubblica: NATO has reportedly identified two red lines that could prompt the Alliance's direct intervention in the war in Ukraine. These red lines are not operational plans but rather assessments of potential scenarios in case of emergency situations.
The first red line involves the possibility of a third party's direct or indirect involvement in northwestern Ukraine, potentially creating a corridor between Ukraine and Belarus.
The second red line pertains to military provocations against Baltic States, Poland, or Moldova, which could test NATO's reaction during a period of possible confusion, such as election seasons in Europe and the United States. Though there are no immediate plans to send troops to Ukraine.
Behind the Lines
Military intelligence confirms car bomb attack killing Russian organizer of torture chambers in Berdiansk, Yevhen Ananievsky. Russian officials, their proxies, and collaborators have been routinely targeted in both occupied parts of Ukraine and inside Russia. He was one of the organizers of torture chambers on the territory of the Berdyansk correctional colony No. 77.
Die Zeit: Data on Bundeswehr meetings were available online until May 3. Data on over 6,000 meetings held by Germany's Budeswehr was available online until May 3, according to the German media outlet Die Zeit.
Chatter in the natsec world: there seem to be those who do not believe that Ukraine can defeat Russia.
Meanwhile in Russia
One of the largest banks in Turkey began to massively refuse Russians to open accounts.
The Turkish bank DenizBank, which is one of the largest credit institutions in the country, has practically stopped opening accounts for Russian citizens since the beginning of 2024, RBC writes , citing two intermediaries helping Russians obtain cards from Turkish banks.
“Out of ten applications for opening an account, only one receives approval. It is impossible to open an account even with a residence permit and registration in Turkey,” one of the intermediaries, Sergei Ovsyannikov, described the situation. He added that DenizBank now makes exceptions only for clients with a large deposit of $100 thousand and above.
The problem was confirmed by the managing partner of Lenar Wealth Management Lenar Rakhmanov, who works in Istanbul. According to him, the likelihood of a Russian opening an account is influenced by the “caliber of the client” and personal agreements with a specific bank branch.
Czechia, Estonia will not attend Putin's inauguration on May 7. Representatives of Czechia and Estonia will not be in attendance for Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming presidential inauguration, the foreign ministers of the respective countries confirmed on May 5.
Moscow plans to impose economic and transit sanctions against Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia for “hostile actions” towards Russia, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.
“We will also respond to the hostile actions of the Baltic states with asymmetric measures, primarily in the economic and transit spheres,” RIA Novosti quotes Zakharova.
Julia Davis: Russian TV openly promoting the use of punitive psychiatry. This is an old practice. If you didn’t agree with the regime/party, they locked you up in a psychiatric hospital. It’s not so far off in the past: a journalist was put in hospital by force at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Allied Support
FT: US aid to Ukraine will help Ukraine launch counteroffensive in 2025, Sullivan says. Ukraine will look to launch a counteroffensive in 2025 with the support of the approved $61 billion aid package from the United States, as well as additional aid funding, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told the Financial Times on May 4.
Ukraine received a shipment of anti-armor rockets, missiles and badly needed 155-millimeter artillery shells. The previously announced transfer of MIM-104 anti-aircraft missiles from Spain may also already be in Ukraine.
The Financial Times: Russia plotting sabotage across Europe, intelligence agencies warn
European intelligence agencies have warned their governments that Russia is plotting violent acts of sabotage across the continent as it commits to a course of permanent conflict with the west.
Russia has already begun to more actively prepare covert bombings, arson attacks and damage to infrastructure on European soil, directly and via proxies, with little apparent concern about causing civilian fatalities, intelligence officials believe.
While the Kremlin’s agents have a long history of such operations — and launched attacks sporadically in Europe in recent years — evidence is mounting of a more aggressive and concerted effort, according to assessments from three different European countries shared with the Financial Times.
“We assess the risk of state-controlled acts of sabotage to be significantly increased,” said Thomas Haldenwang, head of German domestic intelligence. Russia now seems comfortable carrying out operations on European soil “[with] a high potential for damage,” he told a security conference last month hosted by his agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.
In Sweden, security services are meanwhile investigating a series of recent railway derailments, which they suspect may be acts of state-backed sabotage.
Russia has attempted to destroy the signalling systems on Czech railways, the country’s transport minister told the FT last month.
In Estonia, an attack on the interior minister’s car in February and those of journalists were perpetrated by Russian intelligence operatives, the country’s Internal Security Service has said. France’s ministry of defence also warned this year of possible sabotage attacks by Russia on military sites.
“The obvious conclusion is that there has been a real stepping up of Russian activity,” said Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, the think-tank.
“One cannot tell if that’s a reflection of the fact that the Russians are throwing more resources at it; whether they are being more sloppy and getting caught; or whether western counter-intelligence has simply become better at detecting and stopping it,” he added. “Whatever it is though — there is a lot going on.”
Statement from U.S. Ambassador to Georgia Dunnigan
I am deeply concerned that in recent weeks the Georgian government’s choices have moved the country away from its Euro-Atlantic future, a destination desired by the overwhelming majority of Georgians. Unfortunately, the ruling party appears determined to advance legislation that the EU has clearly said is incompatible with Georgia’s EU aspirations. Additionally, some in the ruling party have chosen to attack the greatest supporters of Georgia’s sovereignty, the United States and the European Union. We have stood next to Georgia at the negotiations with a country that occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. We have supported the preservation of Georgia’s language, cultural heritage, and historical legacy. We have built a partnership over the last 32 years based on shared values and a shared desire to see Georgia as a member of the Western family of democracies. We refuse to change our commitment to the Georgian people and to Georgia’s future, a future in Europe where all Georgians who have seen the benefits of our investments and programs know greater peace and prosperity will be found.
Recently we have invited senior members of the Georgian Government to engage directly with the most senior leaders in the United States to discuss our strategic partnership and any concerns with U.S. assistance; unfortunately, the Georgian side chose not to accept this invitation.
We urge the Georgian government to recommit the country to its Euro-Atlantic future, as written in Georgia’s constitution. The United States remains committed to our enduring relationship and wants only peace, stability, and prosperity for the Georgian people.
Tory collapse in local elections: In the local elections in England, this is a stunning result for Keir Starmer and the Labour Party (+185), and a collapse of the Conservatives (-473) at the local council level under the leadership of Rishi Sunak.
Late Friday night, a few commentators opined that the results do not indicate a possible Labour victory in the up-coming parliamentary elections to be held in the fall; however, the fact is that the Tories finished third behind the Liberal Democrats in the number of seats won, for the first time since 1996. The Tories lost the West Midlands, Liverpool, Greater Manchester, and West Yorshire among other cities.
Labour leader Keir Starmer told the Observer that Sunak has no option but to call a general election immediately to avoid further damage being inflicted on the country by his paralysed government and deeply divided party.
“Tragically, Britain is now the victim of a zombie government, stuck in purgatory with a prime minister who won’t call an election he fears he’ll lose, but can’t give this country the change it deserves. Dragging this out will only cause more damage, more decline and more drift.”
Christiane Amanpour: “It’s such an obvious propaganda tool.” Columbia professor and former Biden antitrust architect Tim Wu says the West needs to stop playing “the sucker” on TikTok, and take Chinese control over its communication platforms more seriously.
Featured documentary…
The Hardest Hour: A documentary film by director Alan Badoev and channel «1+1 Ukraine», created from 200 hours of footage: the survival, resistance, and life of Ukrainians during the war. Every minute of the film was shot by Ukrainians on their mobile phones. Some heroes survived, some were killed... But their last actions and voices remain. The world must hear and feel the voices of Ukrainians. The Hardest Hour is happening right now. Support Ukraine. Support freedom and independence.