May 6: E-Stories
InUkraine SitRep Kursk BehindLines Russia-China Europe BBC Noel VEDay ATESH MEGOBARI RadioFreeAsia TatlowChina CZ Simion Alcatraz MonetizingMaga Finland Alberta Narna Hungary Bessent
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Briefing Alert: Seeking Stability in 2025
Mark Carney’s Liberals and Anthony Albanese’s Labour won their respective elections in Canada and Australia, but before Trump’s administration set foot into the White House, it was going to be an uphill battle for both.
Was it the “Trump Effect” or are there other factors at play?
Join EuroFile’s briefing on the elections in Canada, Australia and Germany, as our guest Scott Lucas, and the team with Madi Kapparov et al dissect the elections, and what they mean for the U.S. and the European Union.
Thursday May 8th at 5pm on Zoom. Register here.
Link if you prefer to use your browser: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/mAfMwXXoR5ul-Hq6fRZuSg
Stories we’re following…
A drone hit Kharkiv’s Barabashovo market — one of the biggest in Ukraine and Europe, Mayor Terekhov said. Parts of the market caught fire. The city was hit 20 times overnight. Four people were injured.
4 killed, 30 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day. "The Russians are calling for a ceasefire on May 9 while striking Ukraine every single day. This is top-level cynicism," President Volodymyr Zelensky said, commenting on the attacks.
VE Day in the U.K.: Ukrainian soldiers took part in the London parade marking the 80th anniversary of Victory in WWII yesterday. As they marched past the royal box, they were greeted with applause, and King Charles III honored them with a military salute.
US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent: President Trump intends to use the minerals deal with Ukraine as leverage with Russia, particularly in the context of peace talks.
"And this was President Trump's idea. He likes negotiating, as you know, a lot of people in this room probably know, and he likes creating negotiating leverage for himself and the Ukraine Investment Partnership — the economic partnership was his idea, and he believed that it would do several things.
Combat Situation
The 412th Nemesis Regiment disabled 160 artillery systems, mainly in the Pokrovsk direction. They also destroyed over 110 reconnaissance and communication assets, including Starlink terminals and FPV drone positions. On the Kharkiv front, they thwarted Russian attempts to cross rivers by targeting crossings and boats.
ISW: Putin highlighted domestic support for the war and promoted the ideal of sacrifice on the frontline and the home front, likely in an effort to prepare Russian society for a longer war in Ukraine and potential future confrontations with the West.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Toretsk.
During the night, multiple UAVs targeted sites across Russia. Airports in Moscow, Volgograd, Kaluga, Samara, Tatarstan, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl, and Ivanovo temporarily suspended operations. Moscow authorities reported 19 drones were shot down, with debris damaging a residential building. The Ministry of Defense later claimed 105 UAVs were intercepted.
Kursk Offensive: Russians report that Ukrainian forces shelled Tetkino and engaged in a firefight near the railway station—up to 5 Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly spotted and a bridge near Zvannoe was blown up.
after missile strikes hit bridges overnight, armored units moved in with mine-clearing vehicles, leading to intense fighting.
Pro-Russian militia leader Vladimir Novikov reports Ukrainian activity near Tetkino, Kursk region: intensified strikes, drone battles, and cleared minefields on the border. He adds that a new wave of attacks is expected soon.
Russian channels report this as burning Ukrainian mine-clearing equipment attempting to breach the border near Tetkino.
ATESH Sabotage: Partisans from the Atesh movement disabled a transformer substation in Saratov, Russia, cutting power to two cell towers near key sites: GazPromMash refinery, PiroGroup plant & a mobilization center.
A powerful explosion hit a high-rise in Moscow — reports say a gas blast on the 9th floor caused a fire affecting two apartments. Up to 15 injured, with rescue ops involving 60 firefighters and 20 vehicles.
Ukrainian drones reaching farther into Russia: As Budanov said: deeper and deeper… Over 2,500 km — Russia launches “Koyvor” (airport safety protocol activated when an unidentified object is detected in the sky) plan at Nadym airport, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, after drones reached deep into its territory last night. Ru sources claim 26 UAVs were intercepted.
Behind the Lines
US sanctions depend on whether Russia is 'behaving' on peace deal, Trump says. "I do believe we’re closer with one party, and maybe not as close with the other. But we’ll have to see. I’d like to not say which one we’re closer to," Trump said, adding that he was pleased with the outcome of the minerals deal signed with Ukraine.
Patriots on their way: Western allies aim to agree on more Patriot systems from the U.S. for Ukraine before the NATO summit in late June.
MEGOBARI (H.R. 36): The U.S. Congress has just passed a bill that strikes at the heart of Georgian Dream’s regime. It mandates sanctions, freezes aid
Radio Free Asia announces mass layoffs, shutdown of major language services. “By the end of May, half of RFA’s language services will no longer produce or publish new content: RFA Tibetan, Burmese, Uyghur - which is the world’s only independent Uyghur language news service […]” “Also, ceasing operations will be RFA English service and Asia Fact Check Lab.”
“We are in an unconscionable situation,” Fang said. “Because we can no longer rely on USAGM to disburse our funds as Congress intended, we will have to begin mass layoffs and let entire language services go dark in the next week.
“We are losing journalists who broke the news about the CCP’s genocide against the Uyghurs, who risked their lives covering a civil war in Myanmar, who exposed human trafficking networks in Southeast Asia, and who brought to light the crackdown on religious freedom in Tibet.
“Their invaluable work is part of RFA’s responsibility to uphold the truth so that dictators and despots don’t have the last word. Our priority remains to preserve our company and Congressionally mandated mission, while protecting our most vulnerable journalists.”
Mo: The Radio Free service published and broadcast news in over 40 languages: at times it was the only truthful source of news audiences in authoritarian nations had to understand what was happening to them. Critics have pointed to the inefficiency of the management system as justification for axing the programs. Others have said that they could have been improved by implementing reforms. Providing truthful news to audiences that don’t have access to it was a priceless form of soft power.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Reuters: Russia's Rosatom sues Finnish firms $2.8 bln over nuclear plant contract
Russia's Rosatom has filed a lawsuit in Moscow against Finland's Fortum and Outokumpu, demanding 227.8 billion roubles ($2.8 billion) in compensation for losses over the termination of a contract for the Hanhikivi-1 nuclear power plant in Finland, court documents and Rosatom's statement show.
Rosatom is seeking compensation for losses caused "by the unlawful termination of the EPC contract" for the construction of the nuclear power plant, "violations of the shareholder agreement, the fuel supply contract, and the refusal to repay the loan", company said on Monday.
There will be no Victory Day parade in occupied Sevastopol this year, according to governor Mikhail Razvozhaev, who stated that the decision was coordinated with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russia’s economic stablity continues to degrade due to war spending, Ukraine’s intelligence warns. Next week, the Kremlin plans to raise its budget deficit by 250% — from $12B to $42B — as expenses far exceed revenue.
A massive explosion in an apartment building in Moscow, 16km southwest of the Kremlin. 12 casualties - 2 dead. The explosion came from inside the building.
Didi Tatlow, Exclusive: Chinese Firm Behind NATO Ally's Windfarm Is Tied to Army
A Chinese company that will be supplying turbines for a new wind farm to serve NATO member Germany is run by a military veteran who has sworn eternal loyalty to the Communist Party and is staffed by many ex-soldiers, according to details obtained by Newsweek.
The history of military and political involvement – and continued expressions of loyalty – by the founder and president of Ming Yang Group, Zhang Chuanwei, underlines a potential security challenge for European countries as their drive to install more renewable energy sources risks a growing dependency on technology from China for the electricity for homes, businesses and defense systems.
The Waterkant wind farm project in the North Sea is going ahead with Ming Yang Smart Energy as the supplier despite a warning from a German government defense think tank, which said allowing Chinese firms to supply wind power equipment brought technology, political and supply chain risks, and issued a "clear" advice against it, according to a confidential report seen by Newsweek.
On the Estonian-Russian border at Narna, the Russians have installed huge screens to harrass the Estonians for May Day celebrations. The Estonians won’t put up with any of that so we are awaiting their next move.
POLITICO: "Hungary's EU commissioner is delaying approval of a new plan to end the bloc’s Russian energy reliance... [The] objection comes despite a formal obligation to be independent from Hungary's national political interests."
Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi launched a procedural objection to the proposal just hours before its anticipated release on Tuesday, according to three European officials granted anonymity to speak about closed-door negotiations.
Várhelyi’s objection comes despite a formal obligation to be independent from Hungary's national political interests. Given Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Russia-friendly energy policies, the move was instantly viewed as “a political thing,” said one of the officials, arguing it would not derail the plan’s ultimate approval.
BBC, Russian spies attended Brexit event in Parliament
Three Bulgarians convicted of spying for Russia previously attended an event in the Palace of Westminster, a BBC News investigation has found.
Orlin Roussev, Biser Dzhambazov and Katrin Ivanova were present at an event to debate Brexit in a committee room in May 2016. Photographs posted on social media and unearthed by the BBC show the spies with representatives of European political parties.
The cell's activities were directed from Russia by Jan Marsalek, an Austrian former finance executive reported to be hiding in Moscow having fled fraud charges in Germany following the collapse of payments processing company Wirecard. Marsalek is an asset of Russian intelligence services. A cache of tens of thousands of Telegram messages between Marsalek and Roussev recovered by UK police indicated close coordination with the Austrian's "friends in Russia".
Email exchanges seen by the BBC show Roussev was already in contact with Marsalek by the time of the May 2016 event in Parliament. The event in Parliament was organised and attended by representatives of European political parties, including the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), which Dzhambazov and Ivanova joined in early 2016.
In the EU…
Bloomberg: The EU is set to propose a full ban on Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, aiming to sever remaining energy ties with Moscow despite a surge in Russian LNG deliveries.
Mo: the LNG deliveries and other Russian oil imports are transiting through Georgia and the South Caucasus as well as via the ‘ghost shipping’. As reported in a previous edition of E-Stories, the mechanism for getting these energy products to the EU varies. In most cases, Russian oil and LNG are mixed with oil and LNG coming from other countries, and then re-branded, thus hiding the portion of the product coming from Russia.
German Parliament voting on the Merz government: Merz was not elected in the first round of secret ballot voting. 316 votes are required, and the CDU/CSU/SPD coalition has 328 MPs. There may not be another round of voting today. Should he be confirmed in successive rounds, he will travel to see president Frank-Walter Steinmeier to get a certificate of his appointment. He will then come back to the Bundestag to take the oath of office, and later formally confirm his ministerial appointments (both with the president and the parliament).
Mo: the press is shocked over the fact that Merz was not elected on the first round given that he commands a government coalition that should have pushed him through with no problems. I feel it indicates that the players involved may be trying to get further concessions from Merz before giving their consent.
In Italy this is the norm: confirmation can take several rounds as MPs are cashing in favours or wish to secure committee seats in areas they seek. The MPs who are part of the coalition and who are not voting for Merz are called ‘turncoats’ or ‘franchi tiratori’ in Italian. They’re sending a message to Merz and in all likelihood there are negotiations being held behind the scenes to bring these elements back on board.
Of course, AfD has taken advantage of the temporary chaos to push out their propaganda calling for new elections—a ploy most anti-establishment parties use knowing full-well that this is simply not in the cards.
So let’s hang on and find out what the next government will look like in reality.
Twice the weapons, same budget: EU's new plan boosts support for Ukraine by buying directly from Ukrainian arms makers—cutting costs in half.
"If Trump can't bring peace, Europe will—with strength." — Andrius Kubilius, European Union Commissioner for Defense and Space said.
President Zelensky met with Czech President Petr Pavel in Prague, thanking him for steadfast support. Talks focused on artillery aid (1.8M shells projected this year), defense cooperation, and a future Czech-Ukrainian F-16 training school abroad due to ongoing Russian strikes.
President Zelensky held talks with Czech PM Petr Fiala as well, focusing on bilateral ties and the Czech ammo supply initiative. He also met with defence industry leaders, students, and opposition figures later today.
one of Czech government senior officials was wearing socks with The Kremlin burning down.
Boris Pistorius will remain Germany’s defense minister in the new government formed by the SPD and CDU. A strong advocate of Bundeswehr reform and Ukraine support, Pistorius signals continuity in Berlin’s defense policy.
POLITICO: Polish President Duda urged Donald Trump to ramp up economic pressure on Russia to help end the war in Ukraine. He said Trump is the only one who can force Putin to the negotiating table.
Romania Votes: Results show far-right candidate George Simion leading Romania’s presidential race with 40.94%. He’s followed by centrist rivals Antonescu and Dan. A second round is set for May 18. Simion is persona non grata in Ukraine, and presents an anti-NATO, anti-EU platform, mirroring most anti-establishment parties in Europe on the left and right.
BBC, Romanian PM resigns and pulls out of coalition after nationalist vote win
Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has resigned and his Social Democrat party is to leave the government after a right-wing nationalist candidate won the first round of the presidential election, and his coalition candidate did not make the run off vote set for May 18.
George Simion, a eurosceptic who has promised to put Romania first, won 40.9% of Sunday's vote and is expected to win a run-off vote on 18 May. He will face liberal Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan, who narrowly defeated the Social Democrat (PSD) candidate.
Ciolacu's party was part of a three-party coalition and the prime minister told his colleagues they had come together with the aim of having a joint presidential candidate and a parliamentary majority.
"One of these two objectives has failed," he explained. "I've seen the vote from yesterday, and that tells us the current coalition no longer has legitimacy in this form."
Georgia: For the 158th consecutive day, Rustaveli avenue is blocked.
Molly Young, My Miserable Week in the ‘Happiest Country on Earth
(Mo: This was an excellent article. It’s a long read, but worth the time.)
“Coming to Helsinki in February is an objectively weird choice,” said a man named Mikko Tirronen. “During this time, we don’t have …” he paused. “… colors.”
I was sitting in a coffee shop with Tirronen, a web developer and writer, after flying to Helsinki to think about happiness. For eight years running, Finland has been rated the happiest country in the world by a peculiar United Nations-backed project called the World Happiness Report, started in 2012. Soon after Finland shot to the top of the list, its government set up a “happiness tourism” initiative, which now offers itineraries highlighting the cultural elements that ostensibly contribute to its status: foraging, fresh air, trees, lakes, sustainably produced meals and, perhaps above all else, saunas.
In other news…
Reuters, At a time when space is increasingly becoming an arena for conflicting interests, exploration, and an arms race, Trump’s 2026 budget proposal includes a 24% cut in funding for NASA that would see several of its flagship programs scrapped. The cuts also imperil billions of dollars in federal contracts already awarded to America’s aerospace industry.
Bessent on China and that the US and China are talking about reaching an agreement over the coming weeks because the Trump tariffs at 125% or 145% are simply “unsustainable” for China.
Trump on announced on his Truth Social platform a 100% tariff on all movies “produced in Foreign Lands” on Sunday, saying the US film industry was dying a “very fast death” due to the incentives that other countries were offering to draw American film-makers.
Trump announced on Twitter that he would be opening Alcatraz again:
REBUILD, AND OPEN ALCATRAZ! For too long, America has been plagued by vicious, violent, and repeat Criminal Offenders, the dregs of society, who will never contribute anything other than Misery and Suffering. When we were a more serious Nation, in times past, we did not hesitate to lock up the most dangerous criminals, and keep them far away from anyone they could harm. That’s the way it’s supposed to be. No longer will we tolerate these Serial Offenders who spread filth, bloodshed, and mayhem on our streets. That is why, today, I am directing the Bureau of Prisons, together with the Department of Justice, FBI, and Homeland Security, to reopen a substantially enlarged and rebuilt ALCATRAZ, to house America’s most ruthless and violent Offenders. We will no longer be held hostage to criminals, thugs, and Judges that are afraid to do their job and allow us to remove criminals, who came into our Country illegally. The reopening of ALCATRAZ will serve as a symbol of Law, Order, and JUSTICE. We will, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
Border Wars: The White House and U.S. Border Patrol posted this video portraying themselves as the Darth Vader (the villain) of Star Wars slaughtering the Rebel Forces, the good guys. Someone in communication must have thought this was brilliant: the bad guys killing the underdogs, which is exactly contrary to American values in popular culture.
CNN: Hegseth orders Pentagon to cut number of senior generals by 20%
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has ordered senior Pentagon leadership to cut the number of four-star generals and admirals by at least 20% across the military, according to a memo signed by Hegseth dated Monday and obtained by CNN. A defense official confirmed the memo’s authenticity.
Reaction to the Canadian election and Carney’re win. “Alberta’s ready to break free, warns Kevin O'Leary: "They create most of Canada’s wealth, distribute it to other provinces, & they’re pissed off!" Sovereignty talks are heating up. Can Ottawa win back Alberta, or is a split coming?