Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Video at the top: Prigozhin declares a the video that he will be ordering the withdrawal of Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut. He claims that Wagner will leave Bakhmut by May 10 and hand over positions to the troops of the Russian Federation and 'lick their wounds'. "Because, in the absence of ammunition, they are doomed to a senseless death."
Stories we’re following…
The Russian forces intensified attacks on civilian targets in Kherson. As a result, 26 people died and 56 sustained injuries on May 3. Russia launches drones at Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight May 5. Ukraine's military shot down two drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight on May 5, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Serhii Lysak reported on Telegram.
Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled over 40 Russian attacks in different directions. Bakhmut and Maryinka remain at the epicenter of hostilities. The Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful offensive in the area of Bilohorivka in order to find weak points in the Ukrainian defense, attacking in the areas of New York and Severne.
Russian state media: Oil refinery in Krasnodar region targeted by drone attack again. An explosion at the Ilsky Oil Refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Oblast was allegedly caused by a drone attack, Russian state media RIA Novosti reported on May 5. the emergency services telling it: “The drone attacked the territory of the Ilsky refinery, as a result of which a fire broke out on an area of 60 sq metres. At present, open burning has been eliminated.”
Russian forces hit industrial enterprises in Donetsk Oblast. Russian troops struck Sloviansk and Kramatorsk on May 5, damaging a ceramic granite factory and an administrative building of a heavy equipment plant, reported Donetsk Oblast Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko.
The first three radar systems purchased with donations from Lithuanian residents in February were delivered to Ukraine on Thursday, 4 May, as reported by Delfi, the Lithuanian news agency. "The first three radar systems have been delivered to Ukraine and deployed in their operational sectors. Other radar systems are being prepared for shipment, and documents are being processed," Blue/Yellow said.
CDS Daily Brief: On the eve of the Ukrainian Defense Forces' counteroffensive, the Russian military is taking a series of measures to slow down the advance, force the Ukrainian Forces to disperse in different directions, and reduce the potential impact of Russian defeat in their information campaign.
Defense Ministry: Russia trying 'with all its might' to seize Bakhmut by May 9. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on May 5 that Russia is trying "with all its might" to capture Bakhmut by May 9.
Ukraine's National Resistance Center reports that, "[t]he occupying authorities have begun the process of stockpiling water and food in Crimea due to the possibility of blocking Crimea and the southern part of Kherson Oblast." In addition, Russian forces are preparing the evacuation of collaborators in the temporarily occupied territories of the south in case of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Possible operation situation developments: In anticipation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the command of the Russian troops is trying to gain a foothold on the lines advantageous for defense. Russian troops are restoring infrastructure, including the port, to facilitate the perimeter defense of Mariupol.
The Russian-imposed governor of Ukraine’s occupied Zaporizhzhia region, Yevgeny Balitsky, said on Friday he had ordered the evacuation of villages close to the frontline with Ukrainian forces there, saying that Ukrainian shelling had intensified in recent days.
According to the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian MOD, the Russian occupation forces are demanding that children as young as 14 obtain Russian passports. Parents who refuse are threatened with fines and the revocation of their parental rights. Additionally, all children born in the occupied territories after September 30, 2022, are registered as Russian citizens.
GPS services malfunctioning in Moscow. Police sources reportedly claim that the authorities are jamming navigation services ahead of Victory Day May 9 celebrations.
What seems like a response to Prigozhin’s latest videos, MoD Shoigu has carried out an inspection of troop readiness. Tass reports a statement from the ministry:
The minister of defence of the Russian Federation, general of the army Sergei Shoigu, in the Southern military district, inspected the readiness of military equipment and weapons sent to the units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation in the areas of the special military operation to carry out tasks for their intended purpose.
Monique: The information below hasn’t been verified yet.
Official: Russia holds over 20,000 Ukrainian civilians hostage. Russia is holding over 20,000 civilians hostage, according to the estimates from Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported by the Ukrainian state news outlet Ukrinform. The Russian Federation has refused to exchange civilians with Ukraine without any preconditions, violating international humanitarian law.
India and Russia have suspended work on a bilateral rupee trading facility after months of talks failed to convince Moscow to hoard the Indian currency, two Indian government officials and a source with direct knowledge of the matter said. The news could seriously upset Indian importers of cheap oil and coal from Russia, as they were counting on a permanent mecha[nism for payments in rupees to reduce currency conversion costs. [continue reading]
FT: Indian oil shipping giant emerges by working with Rosneft. Indian oil shipping company with mysterious origins became one of the largest tanker owners in the world, likely due to its ties with the Russian state oil company Rosneft, according to the article from the Financial Times.
White House: US 'focusing on' air defense for Ukraine. The United States is "focusing a lot" on providing Ukraine with the air defense it needs to protect itself from Russian missile and drone attacks, White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby said during a press conference on May 4.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna will meet with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels on Friday, 5 May, ERR reports.
"One very important topic is Ukraine’s status in the matter of its accession to NATO. NATO leaders will meet in Vilnius in July, and we are actively working together with our allies to ensure that Ukraine receives a clear message and a clearly articulated public declaration on the next steps in the process of joining NATO."
"It is no longer enough to simply declare that Ukraine is welcome in the North Atlantic Alliance. We need to go further with very firm steps. So the meeting with the NATO Secretary General is very important."
The German concern Rheinmetall wants to provide Ukraine with a significant amount of artillery ammunition and announced plans to produce up to 600,000 shells per year. Rheinmetall is already the largest Western manufacturer of ammunition/ It can currently produce 450,000 artillery shells per year, 350,000 of them at factories in Europe.
EU Council approves another billion euros to purchase ammunition for Ukraine to implement the second phase of the EU plan to provide Ukraine with one million ammunition rounds.
Bloomberg: EU seeks to target countries helping Russia evade sanctions. The European Union is discussing a new sanctions mechanism aimed at third countries that are not doing enough to prevent Russia from bypassing restrictions already in place, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the issue.
Eurostat has reported that in 2022, the domestic demand for natural gas in the European Union (EU) decreased by 13.2% to 13.72 million terajoules. This decrease can be attributed to the coordinated measures suggested by the European Commission to reduce the EU's dependence on Russian gas.
Finnish power utility Fortum has formally notified the Kremlin that it strongly objects to what it said was Russia’s “unlawful” seizure of its subsidiary in the country. In his regular morning press conference, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov responded by saying the seizure was in accordance with Russian legislation.
President Macron has not spoken with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin since the autumn of 2022, but they may resume contact. "One of the problems of the Russian authorities today is their presence in a parallel reality. We are not interested in strengthening this mental isolation," said French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna on Radio France on May 4.
"The path to negotiations, undoubtedly, will go through the best results on the ground. That is why we are helping to launch a counteroffensive, just as we are helping politically and diplomatically. We are working on a new assistance package for Ukraine," she added.
Ukraine's anti-corruption agency designates Hungarian bank as 'international sponsor of war.' The decision was made due to the bank's decision to continue operating in Russia and adherence to a credit law directly referring to the proxy regimes in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
In his first trip abroad as House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy (along with a bipartisan delegation) met with PM Meloni, President Mattarella and Italian Speaker Fontana. Muzergues (IRI) notes that his visit to Italy, the only EU country on the list, “shows how crucial Rome is seen as a central hub for the Mediterranean” and highlights the “excellent” bilateral relation. Mr McCarthy’s Rome stopover is an addition to the originally MENA-only tour, his first trip since becoming Speaker, encompassing Egypt, Jordan and Israel.
Former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, derided by many Germans for his friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, on Thursday lost his legal bid to keep a government-funded office after being stripped of it last year. He had filed a lawsuit against a decision by the budget committee of the Bundestag lower house of parliament to withdraw his privileges after dismay at his refusal to distance himself from Putin.
BBC News: Local elections in England, 4 May. Counting is under way in councils across England. These are the results as of Friday 6pm CET.
Bill Clinton: I knew it was a matter of time…
The FT quotes Bill Clinton in which he says that he knew in 2011 it was just “a matter of time” before Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine. Citing an appearance by the former US president alongside his wife Hillary, Joshua Chaffin writes:
Bill Clinton said he realised in 2011 it was “just a matter of time” before Vladimir Putin would move on Ukraine after a chilling discussion with Russia’s president in Davos, Switzerland.
During that encounter, Clinton said, Putin rejected a US-brokered deal agreed by his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, to respect Ukraine’s territory in exchange for Kyiv relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal.
“Vladimir Putin told me in 2011 — three years before he took Crimea — that he did not agree with the agreement I made with Boris Yeltsin,” the former US president recalled. “He said . . . ‘I don’t agree with it. And I do not support it. And I am not bound by it.’ And I knew from that day forward it was just a matter of time.”
In the same piece, Hillary Clinton spoke of how the war might come to an end:
To end hostilities, Hillary Clinton argued, Ukraine must either defeat Russia or at least regain the territory lost in the east since Russia’s invasion last year. “They need leverage,” she said. “I wouldn’t trust him [Putin] at a negotiating table under any circumstances, unless Ukrainians – backed by us – have enough leverage.”
If you’re following the Coronation of King Charlie
King’s coronation: who’s on the guest list and who isn’t (and why)
Here’s some pictures of the Coronation dress rehersal.
Shot Freedom of Speech, CDS Daily Brief
According to a report during the round table discussion "Shot Freedom of Speech. Journalists are Targets of the Russian Military Offensive," the number of journalists killed during the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine has reached 56.
Katerina Dyachuk, the head of the freedom of speech monitoring department at the Institute of Mass Information (IMI), stated that,
"since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, we have recorded nine cases of journalist killings while performing their professional journalistic activities. The latest case is Bogdan Bitik, who died in Kherson on April 26. In total, 56 media workers have been killed during this time."
Dyachuk also noted that in April alone, the IMI recorded five cases of media representatives’ deaths who went to the front lines to defend Ukraine. As of May 1, Russia has committed 511 crimes against journalists and the media. Currently, 14 cases of missing journalists and 21 instances of kidnapped journalists are known.
Russia’s Technological Isolation- German Council on Foreign Relations
Putin has used the war in Ukraine to intensify his long-standing battle against freedom of information in Russia. His regime is deploying every method and tool it has created in the last decade to deprive Russians of independent information and social networks. Russia’s so-called “sovereign internet” was invented as an answer to an open and global internet that threatens the effectiveness of Russia’s propaganda machine and by extension Putin’s authoritarian regime. Indeed, creating a centralized state censorship apparatus has been the main goal of Putin’s internet and digital policy for the last decade.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the goal of total information control has become urgent as free access to open information could destroy the Kremlin’s propaganda narrative about the “denazification of Ukraine”.
Roskomnadzor – Russia’s federal censor – cannot however claim total control over information flows. There are still ways for citizens to get around censorship, including through VPNs – Virtual Private Networks – which facilitate access to prohibited content in Russia by routing traffic through other countries. VPN tools have become the most downloaded apps in Russia in the last couple of weeks. [continue reading]
On the Hunt for Putin’s ex-Wife & Ironman Husband
Since her marriage to the Russian president fell apart, Lyudmila Ocheretnaya and her partner have accumulated millions of euros in European real estate.
By Leonie Kijewski, Politico, February 2, 2023 (The Long Read)
The apartment belongs to the husband of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ex-wife, but the man who answers the door tells me it could be mine — for a price.
He’s stocky, dressed in a tight white T-shirt, and he speaks with a Russian accent. He introduces himself as Vladimir and says he’s a business partner of Artur Ocheretny, the apartment’s owner, and could broker a deal if someone were interested in buying. With him is a skinny woman with long blond hair and a little boy. Behind them stretches a narrow hallway, beyond which I catch a glimpse of a luminous apartment.
Located a 20-minute walk from the beach in Marbella, a resort city on Spain’s celebrity-studded Costa del Sol, the unit was worth some €1.1 million when it was bought in 2014 and property prices have only risen since. “This is a big, big apartment,” Vladimir says. “It’s absolutely new.” He promises to arrange a visit.
I can’t believe my luck. For weeks, I’ve been investigating the European luxury property that Lyudmila Ocheretnaya — Putin’s ex-wife — and her husband have accumulated in the decade or so since her marriage to the Russian president fell apart. [continue reading]
Programming note…
Ambassador of the Slovak Republic to the United States Radovan Javorčík sits down with Sam Greene to discuss the role of Slovakia in fostering transatlantic cooperation and continued support for Ukraine. This discussion is part of CEPA’s “State of the Alliance,” a series bringing together thought leaders from Europe and North America to deliberate on the most pressing challenges facing allies and partners.
May 6: Saturday Stories