May 7: E-Stories
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Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
It’s spreading!
Stories we’re following…
Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 4 people, injure 19 over past day. Russian forces targeted nine of Ukraine's oblasts – Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Odesa, Kherson, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Casualties were reported in the latter four regions.
Authorities: Russian attack on Sumy Oblast injures 3, including children. Russian troops shelled the village of Uhroidy in Sumy Oblast on May 6, injuring three people, including two children, Suspilne reported, citing Iryna Yukhta, secretary of the Krasnopil village council.
Russia targeted Monachynivka village near Kupyansk with a deadly 1.5-ton aerial bomb, leveling the whole street. It's the first time such weapons were used. Elderly woman killed. FAB was equipped with a gliding module allowing it to maneuver post-launch.
Official: Russia hits power plant in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces struck the Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant in Donetsk Oblast with five heavy artillery rockets, damaging several sites at the power plant, deputy head of Mykolaivka City Military Administration Volodymyr Proskunin said on May 5.
DW: Kyiv says it is suffering from a lack of soldiers and delays in deliveries from its Western allies. The shortages have allowed the Russians to advance in many places, like in Avdiivka. Now, they have their sights set on Chasiv Yar. A Ukrainian retreat there could jeopardize the defense of the entire region. DW correspondent Nick Connolly reports from the ground.
Combat Situation Update
In Ukraine’s east Donetsk region, the Russian invasion forces have captured another village, Ocheretyne, some 15 km west of Avdiivka. Russians captured 10 villages in the area since February, after they seized Avdiivka following 4 months of heavy fighting.
Syrskyi: Russia trying to break through defenses to reach Kurakhove, Pokrovsk. Russian troops are trying to break through Ukraine's defenses and reach the cities of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on May 6.
Military: Russia trying to regain control of Nestryha Island in Kherson Oblast. Speaking on national TV, a spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces, said Moscow's troops had tried unsuccessfully to storm Ukrainian positions three times, losing four tanks in the process.
ISW: The Russian military reportedly redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast as part of a larger ongoing Russian effort to gather an operationally significant force for a possible future Russian offensive operation against northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv City.
The Russian military is reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction.
ISW continues to assess that the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to seize Kharkiv City but that Russian offensive operations against Kharkiv or Sumy cities would draw and fix Ukrainian forces from other, more critical parts of the frontline.
ISW’s assessment is in line with the same by CDS Report.
Russia has switched to using overland routes in occupied eastern Ukraine to supply its front lines after repeated attacks by Ukraine on the Kerch Bridge. Analysis of satellite images show that almost no military freight trains have plied the bridge’s rail line in over 3 months
Behind the Lines
Media: Chinese leader wants to work with international community to end war in Ukraine. China wants to work with France and the rest of the international community to end the war in Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly told French media outlet Le Figaro on May 5. Macron and von der Leyen are also set to talk about Ukraine and reducing trade imbalances.
Von der Leyen also said she was “confident” Xi Jinping would continue to play an “important role” in de-escalating tensions over nuclear threats made by Russia, hours after President Vladimir Putin ordered nuclear weapons drills involving troops based near Ukraine.
China Daily: President Xi Jinping's arrival in Paris for a state visit to France draws Chinese students and local community members to the streets, where they wave Chinese and French flags in an enthusiastic welcome. (Me: this parade of Communist flags welcoming Xi was organised for domestic consumption.)
Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Monday that China had all along been working “vigorously” to facilitate talks for peace in Ukraine, according to Chinese state media. China did not create the Ukraine crisis, nor was it a party to it, Xi told Macron and von der Leyen during a trilateral meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris. (Me: Yes, he actually said this with a straight face.)
Tomasz Szmydt, a judge of the Voivodeship Administrative Court of Warsaw, has appeared at a press conference in Minsk declaring that he wants to stay in Belarus and will be applying for political asylum, as he does not agree with the policy of his country, as reported by BelTA and TASS. There was a similar case at the end of 2021 when Polish soldier Emil Czeczko fled to Belarus. He faced 10 years in prison for desertion but was found hanged in March 2022.
At the press briefing, he said he praised Lukashenka and added that he disagrees with the policy of the Polish authorities, which, he said, "under the influence of the United States and the UK, are leading the country to war".
The EU says it is preparing for a possible sudden cessation of Russian gas supplies after the transit contract between Ukraine and the Russian Federation expires at the end of 2024, Kadri Simson, the European Commissioner said during a briefing.
Simson gave a reminder that the gas transit contract between Russia and Ukraine will soon expire, so the EU wants to coordinate its actions on this with Ukraine. She noted that the EU has been preparing for this situation for two years.
"We knew that Russia was not a reliable gas supplier, and all our risk assessments were designed around the fact that Europe could be left without Russian gas supplies in an instant," Simson said.
Meanwhile in Russia
At the direction of Putin, preparations have begun for exercises involving missile units of the Southern Military District, along with aviation and naval forces, aimed at enhancing the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces for combat tasks. Drills of this sort were carried out in 2020.
The exercises will include practical training on the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons and are intended to maintain the readiness of personnel and equipment to respond to threats to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Russian state.
These Russian Ministry of Defense says these actions are in response to provocative statements and threats from certain Western officials directed at Russia.
Kremlin's spokesperson Peskov: Russia is preparing tactical nuclear weapons drill in a response of escalation by the west, particularly Macron's words, and statements of British officials, representatives of U.S. senate.
Russian children in a military parade and show. Russian children are indoctrinated from a very young age into believing the historical narrative as set by the Kremlin. It’s political warfare on their own population.
Russia’s plans to conduct tactical nuclear drills are nothing more than its continuing nuclear blackmail, Ukraine’s military spy agency spokesperson said on Monday. Peskov also said a Financial Times report saying that Russia was preparing acts of sabotage across Europe was “not serious” and was “groundless”.
“We do not see here anything new, except for the information effect and statements... Nuclear blackmail is a constant practice of Putin’s regime,” Andriy Yusov told national TV.
Maria Avdeeva: Any UK military sites in Ukraine or elsewhere could face retaliation if Ukraine uses British weapons in Russia. Seriously? What about all those Russian terrorist attacks and sabotage across Europe? Or do they just not count?
Russia’s FM Sergey Lavrov added: “They are deliberately leading the situation towards a further escalation of the Ukrainian crisis towards an open military clash between Nato countries and Russia,” the foreign ministry said.
Maria's on point and the Russians are losing their cool over these statements. The Russians admit to using nuclear blackmail as a way of “cooling down the hotheads in the West”. Of course, this will add to the scaremongering by Russian aligned proxies in the West.
Another consideration is that this will be the tactic used by other authoritarian states and their proxies in the future. Global instability will continue as long as Russia is still able to fight Ukraine on the ground. Should Ukraine fold (unthinkable), instability will be the defining characteristic in international relations. We are already seeing this in the Red Sea.
The Financial Times: Russian war-related trade started to slump in Jan 2024, showing how strong US leverage over the global banking system still is. “It’s getting harder and harder (to move money in and out)…The logical endpoint of this is turning Russia into Iran.”
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it does not recognize Putin's presidency and called on the world to do the same. This due the so called “elections” that violated numerous documents serving as a basis for international relations.
Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, is opposed to European Union representatives attending the "inauguration" ceremony for Russian leader Vladimir Putin following his sham re-election this spring.
On 25 April, the European Parliament adopted a resolution condemning the manner in which Vladimir Putin’s sham re-election was conducted and calling for those elections not to be recognised as legitimate.
Germany will not be represented at Putin’s inauguration show for his next six-year term in office on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry said. This decision comes after the Baltic states and Armenia have also said they will no be going. The United States and the UK have also decided not to send anyone to the event.
Germany temporarily recalls ambassador from Moscow over cyberattacks.
"The foreign minister (Annalena Baerbock) has recalled Ambassador (Alexander) Graf Lambsdorff to Berlin for consultations," where he will remain for one week before returning back to Moscow, the spokesperson said.
Reuters: France to send ambassador to Putin's inauguration. Many European countries, such as the U.K., Estonia, Czechia, and others, have said they will boycott the inauguration ceremony.
Allied Support
Ukraine has already received a new batch of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles from its allies, Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles confirmed.
Commissioner: EU's next 14th package of Russia sanctions to target LNG imports. Kadri Simson also said the EU is preparing for a sudden end to the Russian gas supply when the transit contract between Ukraine and Moscow expires at the end of this year.
Bloomberg: The EU is considering the possibility of expanding financial sanctions against Russia and including in the “black lists” the domestic analogue of SWIFT - the Financial Message Transmission System (SPFS) of the Bank of Russia.
In addition, sanctions are planned against transport companies owned by Russian structures by more than 25%, as well as additional measures against Belarus, China, the UAE and Turkey for supporting Moscow.
Minister for Strategic Industries of Ukraine Oleksandr Kamyshin said that both Denmark and Canada have agreed to finance the production of weapons such as armoured vehicles and UAVs by the Ukrainian defense industry.
Media: Finland considers building TNT factory in response to war in Ukraine. The move comes amid the critical shortage of explosives amid Russia's war in Ukraine, Finnish media outlet Yle reported, citing the country's defense minister Antti Hakkanen.
This is a good sign: the UK and France talking about European security is music to my ears.
The disruption to container shipping traffic in the Red Sea is increasing and is expected to reduce the industry's capacity between the Far East and Europe by some 15%-20% in the second quarter, shipping group Maersk said.
Euro zone business activity expanded at its fastest pace in almost a year last month as a resurgence in the bloc's dominant services industry more than offset a deeper downturn in manufacturing, a survey showed.
Italy’s mobsters have moved aggressively into the low-risk, low-key world of white-collar crime, senior Italian prosecutors told Reuters.
While maintaining a tight grip on the European cocaine trade, it has led the drive into finance over the past decade. Almost a third of the EPPO's 1,927 active cases in 2023 were centred on Italy, where the estimated damage was put at 7.38 billion euros out of a total 19.3 billion in the whole bloc.
The crimes often rely on the complicity of entrepreneurs, happy to find new ways to dodge taxes. Tax evasion is a chronic problem in Italy, costing state coffers some 83 billion euros in 2021, according to the most recent Treasury data.
"In Italy, there is no social stigma for those who issue false invoices or evade taxes," said Alessandra Dolci, head of Milan's anti-mafia prosecution team. "Social views on economic crimes are very different to those regarding drug trafficking."
"The 'Ndrangheta ... is no longer involved in extortion rackets, but in insolvencies and bankruptcies," he said. "(It) has entered the world of sub-contracting, responding to a demand for tax evasion from entrepreneurs."
Eurovision 2024 began in the Swedish city of Malmo when 37 contenders walked the 'Turquoise Carpet' amid heightened security and calls for boycotts due to Israel's participation. It's the 68th version of the song contest, which is always billed as non-political.
For over 40 years, Trump’s whole business model was dealing with Russian mafia and the most corrupt thugs. I just don’t understand why the majority of Americans don’t see this and what a danger he poses to America. Apparently they want a Russian style dictatorship that many died or fled from.
And the reason Trump is acting more erratic is because he is emboldened due to no accountability. He has the Republican Party fully in line and loyal unlike in 2016. Russia also right now is emboldened because of the hesitancy by the West and has dropped all pretenses.
The judge in Donald Trump’s criminal trial addressed him personally and warned that he could jail him for “a direct attack on the rule of law.” This is the second time in two weeks that the former president has been held in contempt for violating a gag order that bars him from attacking jurors.
Columbia University announced that it would be canceling its main commencement ceremony, after weeks of student protests. The university will instead hold smaller ceremonies for each of its 19 colleges. The main campus has been in a state of near lockdown since last Tuesday.
This is typical of terrorist organisations: they steal whatever they can to fund their operations if funds are lacking from foreign sources. In the 1970s in Italy, the Red Brigades regularly held up banks (before ATMs), and other terrorist organisations in Europe and the Middle East carried out the same operations. In the article below, the Bank of Palestine’s ATMs were stolen.
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