May 7: E-Stories
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Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Join us on Thurs May 8 at 5pm (Rome time) for the EuroFile briefing on the elections in Canada and Australia with our EuroFile crew and esteemed guests.
Register here: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/mAfMwXXoR5ul-Hq6fRZuSg
Stories we’re following…
Russian drone strike caused tens of millions worth of damage to Chornobyl. Attack damaged €1.5bn containment structure over nuclear reactor with repair costs likely to be borne by western governments.
Two killed, 8 injured — including 4 children — in Kyiv after a wave of Russian drone attacks overnight. At least 10 explosions were heard. Residential buildings were struck by debris and direct hits.
Putin has ordered a temporary ceasefire around May 9 Victory Day, according to Kremlin spokesman Peskov. Zelensky has already rejected the proposal, insisting instead on a 30-day truce to allow real negotiations.
Ukraine brings home 205 POWs in prisoner exchange with Russia. This marks the fifth known prisoner of war (POWs) swap of 2025 and the 64th since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
Parliamentary сommittee backs ratification of US minerals deal ahead of Verkhovna Rada vote. The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, will vote on the agreement's ratification on May 8.
Nataliya Gumenyuk, Putin’s Ukraine (Feb 2025)
But even more central to Ukrainian thinking about the war are the powerful and complex effects of the Russian occupation. For Ukrainians, the occupation did not begin with the full-scale invasion in 2022 but has been an ongoing reality for more than a decade—ever since Moscow seized Crimea and parts of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine in 2014. The horror of Russian military rule has been felt not only in areas of the south and east, where much of the war has been fought, but also near Kyiv in the opening weeks of the 2022 invasion, when Russian forces committed widespread atrocities in the capital’s suburbs. Just as important, Ukrainians understand that the threat goes well beyond the occupied areas themselves. In addition to the six million who are caught in these areas, it has affected millions of displaced people who had to move farther west, and many more, including members of the Ukrainian cabinet, who have relatives living under Russian domination.
As many Ukrainians recognize, what observers in the West have characterized as brutal excesses in occupied areas—human rights abuses, political repression, and war crimes—are in fact a central part of Russia’s war strategy. The issue is not merely what happens to those under Russian rule but how Moscow has used its control of significant numbers of Ukrainians to undermine the stability of the whole country, even without taking more territory. Nor is this a hypothetical threat: as Ukrainians know too well, the Kremlin, while pretending to negotiate, used the eight years of so-called frozen conflict with Ukraine after 2014 to create a launch pad for the larger invasion. Put simply, Russian control over any part of Ukraine subverts and corrodes Ukrainian sovereignty everywhere.
“Putin doesn’t want peace — he wants Ukraine,” said former U.S. VP Mike Pence on CNN. He urged firm U.S. support, warning that Putin “only understands strength” and that Trump’s wavering stance only emboldened Russia.
Combat Situation
Overnight and early this morning, Russia was hit by a massive drone attack: strikes targeted the fiber optics plant in Saransk and an MLRS production facility in Tula. There were also reported hits on the Kubinka airbase in the Moscow region.
Russian VKS related channel Fighterbomber about the attacks: "As predicted, Ukrainian forces targeted key parade locations, hitting the Kubinka airfield, home to our "Russian Knights" and "Swifts" aerobatic teams with drones. The airshow itself remains unaffected, but it's a clear message."
"Ukraine’s Defense Forces have already repelled Russian attempts to land forces on Dnipro islands near Kherson. Enemy plans to repeat such actions are known — and we’re ready," says Center for Countering Disinformation head Andriy Kovalenko.
Commander-in-Chief Syrsky: We’ve stabilised the situation in the Pokrovsk direction — and in some areas, even seized the tactical initiative. He praised the 425th Assault Regiment “Skala” for their role using active defense to take out Russian units.
Russian military sources report ongoing Ukrainian attacks near Tetkino, Kursk region. "Enemy infantry in small groups and light vehicles reached the outskirts. Intense firefights underway, with both sides using drones and artillery. The situation is very tense."
Behind the Lines
Polish truckers plan to block the border with Ukraine again at the Dorohusk–Yahodyn crossing. Polish hauliers blame Ukrainians for low transport rates and job losses. A protest has been officially registered — no date announced yet.
WaPo: The Trump administration asked Ukraine to accept U.S. deportees who aren’t Ukrainian — as part of a broader push to offload third-country nationals, WP writes. Docs show Kyiv was among several nations pressured with offers or incentives.
The Canadian government has initiated legal proceedings to seize the Russian An-124 Ruslan aircraft in favor of Ukraine, which has been stranded at Toronto Airport since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishyna confirms.
Russian Baltic Sea provocations 'increasing threat of accidental military incidents,' Latvian intelligence says. The annual report said Russia is using aggressive tactics, such as unauthorized airspace incursions and close encounters with NATO ships and aircraft.
Lithuania to mine border with Russia, Belarus in new $12 billion defense plan. About 800 million euros ($905 million) will be allocated for the acquisition and installation of anti-tank mines to deter potential aggression.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Chaos at Petersburg airport, planes have been queuing for hours to depart for Moscow and some flights have been cancelled. The connection has been unstable for two days now (source Exilenova), everything related to GPS is paralyzed: taxis, deliveries, logistics.
Inside Russian Community: the far-right group thriving under Putin’s wartime regime
Of all the far-right groups in Russia, none has attracted more attention lately than Russian Community. In just a few years, it’s gone from one of several major ultra-nationalist groups to the undisputed leader. Its members carry out raids on migrants, file denunciations against anyone who challenges their worldview, and appear to enjoy ties with everyone from security officials to Russian Orthodox Church head Patriarch Kirill. Here’s what we know about wartime Russia’s most visible far-right movement.
Chaos in Moscow today — mobile networks down, ATMs not working, shops only taking cash, and even food delivery's a mess. All thanks to Victory Day parade rehearsals. Some stores are shut along the tank routes. Locals were warned about blackouts on May 7 & 9… and here we are.
Lula plans to offer Putin Brazil’s mediation in Ukraine peace talks during his May 9 visit to Moscow, per Globo. Lula believes Brazil has the authority — and that he personally has the influence — to help make a deal happen.
"Death Notice": Russian children are now reenacting death at kindergarten performances In a Yekaterinburg kindergarten, children performed a play where a little girl receives a military death notice, falls to her knees in grief, and other kids place carnations on the “body” of her fallen son.
Bloomberg: Xi and Putin are reviving stalled talks on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. The long-delayed project would boost Russian gas exports to China as Moscow scrambles to replace lost European markets post-Ukraine invasion.
Slovak PM Robert Fico has criticized the EU's plan to stop importing Russian gas, saying it could have more negative effects on the EU than on Russia. He suggests a more cautious approach and warns that breaking ties with Gazprom might lead to higher gas prices for Slovakia and the EU.
In the EU…
Finland: “A FLIGHT FORCE Hornet fighter jet crashed at Rovaniemi Airport on Wednesday morning, the Air Force says. The pilot escaped with an ejection seat and has been located. Rescue operations were underway in the area after noon, the Air Force said on the X message service. The area has been isolated.
German parliament confirms Merz as Chancellor on the second vote. 325 votes in favour, more than 316 required. On his first stop after the confirmation as German Chancellor, Merz met with French President Macron in Paris today for key talks on bilateral relations.
The European Commission has unveiled a plan to be “completely free from Russian gas” by the end of 2027. In a roadmap to ending Russian energy imports, the EU executive called on member states to prevent new contracts with gas suppliers and stop existing spot contracts by the end of the year. It proposed banning imports of Russian pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) under long-term contracts within the next 2.5 years.
European Commission prepares 17th sanctions package against Russia, Reuters reports. The European Commission is preparing its 17th sanctions package against Russia, adding more individuals and over 100 vessels associated with Russia's shadow fleet to the sanctions list.
The EU has launched a market surveillance of Chinese imports into the EU (to be released in mid-May) amid fears that the trade war with the US is diverting goods to Europe. Trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has again warned that the existing tariffs on the automotive and steel sectors along with the threat of tariffs in six other areas is “unacceptable”. mSpeaking at the European parliament on Tuesday he again urged the US to cut a deal with the EU.
Celebrating 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations at the EU mission in Beijing. Hua Chunying, China’s Vice Foreign Minister attends the celebrations with EU’s ambassador to China Jorge Toledo.
Germany’s new coalition deal (SPD–CDU–CSU) backs Ukraine’s EU/NATO membership, pledges continued military & financial support, and use of frozen Russian assets — but makes no mention of Taurus missiles.
Alison Mutler, Centrist Dan in runoff in Romanian presidential race
Mr. Dan, 55, who ran on an "Honest Romanian" candidate was running behind the pro-European government candidate, Crin Antonescu, but as votes came in late Sunday, he overtook Antonescu. Dan is popular with Romania's overseas voters who tend to have a poor view of government candidates, such as Antonescu. Mr. Simion is the favorite to win the runoff, and Mr. Dan will struggle to defeat him. A total of 11 candidates ran for president.
ERR: Toomas Hendrik Ilves' speech to the Baltic American Freedom League
Let's be honest. We all are beneficiaries of Pax Americana, the so-called "post-war settlement," the political, economic and military order the U.S. created at the end of World War Two. And in the past ten years, but especially in the past several months, it is coming to an end.
The post-World War Two settlement describes the U.S.-led set of rules of international behavior, accepted by all but the most rogue of nations, which shakily perhaps, since 1945 nonetheless prevented outright aggression in the Northern Hemisphere. It is premised on a loose set of principles, the most important one forbidding changes in borders via force or threat of force, included in the Charter of the UN in 1945 as a direct response to Germany's and Japan's wars of conquest that started World War Two. Pax Americana ruled both in transatlantic space but also in the Pacific and Oceania, but more broadly formed the basis of a generally peaceful 80 years in large swathes of the world, much as the post-Napoleonic Congress of Vienna set the rules for European countries from 1815 to 1914.
This was not merely a political order. All of it was created by the U.S. to prevent another World War, based on the lessons learned from the aftermath of the first world war, the chaos, economic collapse and rise of fascism in the 1920s and 1930s.
Since we are all Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians in our historical memories — and hence in our souls — we all know, as Ronald Reagan said almost 60 years ago:
"Freedom is a fragile thing and it's never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by way of inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation, for it comes only once to a people. And those in world history who have known freedom and then lost it have never known it again."
In other news…
India has launched Operation Sindoor, striking nine targets it identifies as terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistani-administered Kashmir. According to the Indian military, the precision strikes deliberately avoided Pakistani army facilities. Reuters notes heavy shelling and loud explosions in two border regions of Indian-controlled Kashmir.
Up-date Operation Sindoor: As part of Operation Sindoor, India conducted 24 airstrikes on six sites in Pakistan, deploying SCALP missiles, Hammer bombs, and Rafale fighter jets. Islamabad reported eight fatalities, 35 injuries, and described the strikes as an “act of war,” accusing India of breaching its sovereignty.
Pakistan claims it downed up to five Indian aircraft. Global reactions followed swiftly: the UN called for restraint, the U.S. voiced support for India but also called Pakistan a partner, while Turkey sided with Pakistan. China urged both nations to deescalate. Regional flights have been suspended as the situation remains volatile.
Pakistan reports 26 civilians killed, 46 injured in Indian strikes. India accuses Pakistan of shelling Kashmir — 10 dead, 48 wounded. India’s Home Minister Shri Amit Shah vows full backing for the military to respond “strongly.”
Carney-Trump Meeting in Washington: Canada’s PM Mark Carney says “some places are never for sale” after Donald Trump says he is still interested in making Canada the 51st state of the United States.
Trump says “this is a very friendly conversation” with Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney but that the US wants to make its own cars.
“We don’t really want cars from Canada,” Trump says. “We don’t want steel from Canada because we’re making out own steel.”
Trump says USMCA, the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, is “a good deal for everybody”. Canadian prime minister Mark Carney says the deal is a “basis for a broader negotiation” and that “some things about it are going to have to change”.
Carney also told reporters that he and Trump had a wide-ranging and constructive discussion, but cautioned that it’s a “complex negotiation” and no decisions were made on tariffs during today’s meeting.
Trump Administration Plans to Send Migrants to Libya on a Military Flight
The Trump administration is planning to transport a group of immigrants to Libya on a U.S. military plane, according to U.S. officials, another sharp escalation in a deportation program that has sparked widespread legal challenges and intense political debate.
TikTok Data Centre in Finland: The Finnish company building TikTok's large data center in Kouvola is backed by a billionaire who has done business with Donald Trump . Hussain Sajwan , who hails from the United Arab Emirates, is worth around ten billion euros, according to the financial magazine Forbes.
According to Kauppalehti, the data center project also has connections to the Chinese data center giant GDS Holding. According to Yle, at least one Chinese owner is involved in one of the companies established for the data center project.
Hussain Sajwan's wealth is based on real estate businesses, especially in Dubai. In 2012, he collaborated with Donald Trump's company when a golf course bearing Trump's name was built in Dubai.
“Sajwani's investment company has also operated in Russia and was, for example, building the venues for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. The project was overseen by then-Russian Prime Minister, now President Vladimir Putin, with whom Sajwani was at a press conference in 2010.”
Bessent and Greer will meet with their Chinese counterparts later this week in Switzerland, in what could be the first step to negotiating an end to the trade war between the world’s two largest economies over tariffs imposed by Trump.
Bessent also contradicted a previous claim from Trump that talks with China had been going on for weeks. “We haven’t had negotiations,” Bessent told Fox. “The world has been coming to the US, and China has been the missing piece.”
Chris Krebs, the former director of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency secured a top spot on Donald Trump’s enemies list on 12 November 2020 —by tweeting a link to a statement from government experts that called the presidential election Trump lost “the most secure in American history”.
The memorandum charged that Krebs had “falsely and baselessly denied that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen, including by inappropriately and categorically dismissing widespread election malfeasance and serious vulnerabilities with voting machines.”
“We’re going to find out about this guy”, Trump said as he signed the memorandum, “because this guy’s a wise guy”.
Reuters: A surprise move by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to pause military aid to Ukraine caught the White House off guard. After some confusion, it was clarified that the decision followed Trump's directive, though not everyone was in the loop.
The Daily Beast: Trump Throws a Tantrum After Getting Roasted by Karl Rove
President Donald Trump ripped into Republican strategist Karl Rove after the former White House aide offered some hard truths about the Trump administration’s unforced errors.
“We elected him for a variety of reasons that were important: inflation, the border, DEI, the military, respect for America,” Rove said Sunday during an interview with Fox News. “[But] things like tweeting out a picture of you as the pope is deeply offensive to a great many people.”
Rove also criticized Trump’s handling of the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the Maryland dad who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador’s notorious CECOT mega-prison.
“This guy from Maryland—I don’t know if he’s a good guy or a bad guy, I don’t know if he’s a gang member not. The fact is, bring him back to the United States. Lay out the facts in a court of law, and get it done,” Rove said.
“I don’t need to have Karl Rove of Fox News to tell me what to do,” Trump shot back in a late-night post on Truth Social. “The guy’s a total Loser who’s been wrong about almost everything!”
Speaking of which, the Conclave starts today. Catholic cardinals from all over the world will begin casting their votes for a new pope in the Sistine Chapel in what is the largest and possibly the most unpredictable conclave to ever take place.
The atmosphere is a bit chaotic, says Ignatius Suharyo Hardjoatmodjo, the archbishop of Jakarta, who was the last cardinal to arrive in Rome and was playing catch-up on Monday. “There’s a lot of confusion,” he told journalists after hearing addresses from 50 cardinals. “We have heard many voices, it’s not easy to draw conclusions.”
“These men of faith are entering [the conclave] believing that God has already chosen the next pope,” said Andrea Vreede, the Vatican correspondent for NOS, the Dutch public radio and TV network. “Now they have to figure out what that choice is. It is unpredictable because there are many new electors who do not know each other very well, because Francis never organised cardinal meetings, so they were never invited to assist or advise the pope. So the one thing they can agree on, whether they are far left or far right, is that they all want more involvement in the government of the next pope.”
At 7pm Rome the faithful and onlookers will be looking up to the chimney in St Peter’s Square: white…habemus papem…black…see you tomorrow.
ABC News: At least 20% of air traffic controllers at Newark International Airport have walked off the job due to chronic understaffing and outdated equipment, the air traffic controllers union said, leading to hundreds of delays and cancellations.
Mo: this story has been brewing for a few days owing to the statements by some air traffic controllers who advised travellers to stay away from Newark airport. The warnings were posted on X and other social media platforms.