May 9: E-Stories
HappyEUDay InUkraine SitRep BehindLines Russia-China ATESH EU-UAAgreements Tariffs US/UAMineralsDeal HungarySpies China FrancoPolishDefence UKDef Kellogg Pirro UKUSTradeDeal Georgia PopeLeo Estonia
Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Happy Europe Day!
Today marks an important milestone in the EU-Ukraine relationship. 35 EU delegations converged in Lviv to sign a number of agreements, including the use of $1.5Bln of the frozen Russian assets to be used for Ukraine’s military needs. See the EU section below.
They began the day by honouring Ukrainians who have falled in defence of Europe at the Field of Honour at Lychakiv Cemetery. Marking Europe Day, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas shared: “We stand with Ukraine—for lasting peace and the future we believe in.”
Stories we’re following…
Over 100 clashes reported on the front line since Russia’s Victory Day ceasefire began. Despite the Kremlin’s announcement of a May 8–11 truce, heavy fighting continued in multiple regions throughout the day.
Russia’s so-called “truce” is nowhere to be seen on the front, says Viktor Tregubov, spokesman for Ukraine’s Khortytsia Operational Group of Troops.
"Despite reduced activity in some areas, clashes continue across multiple fronts — from Lyman to Vovchansk and Chasiv Yar to Pokrovsk."
Russia hit a civilian car with an FPV drone in Kharkiv region at 07:05, injuring three women. All victims have been hospitalized. The prosecutor's office has launched an investigation.
Ukraine’s MFA Andrii Sybiha: Putin’s “Parade ceasefire” is a farce. From midnight to midday, Russia violated it 734 times, launched 63 assaults, 176 FPV drone strikes & 16 guided bombs. Ukraine shares evidence with partners. Putin can’t be trusted—he breaks even his own word.
Kellogg says Ukraine proposed 30-km demilitarized buffer zone, admits Putin main obstacle to ceasefire. U.S. special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg described the proposal as a buffer zone with both sides pulling back 15 kilometers, creating a 30-kilometer area monitored by observers from third countries.
European Parliament passes resolution demanding return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia. Lawmakers urged the EU and its member states to step up efforts to hold Moscow accountable through international courts and support for Ukraine’s campaign to bring its children home.
Combat Situation
ISW: Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk and Sumy oblasts.
Russia is likely attempting to prolong and delay discussions about a comprehensive ceasefire to obfuscate its continued rejection of the United States' ceasefire proposals.
Kellogg says Ukraine proposed 30-km demilitarized buffer zone, admits Putin main obstacle to ceasefire. U.S. special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg described the proposal as a buffer zone with both sides pulling back 15 kilometers, creating a 30-kilometer area monitored by observers from third countries.
Ukrainian partisan group ATESH claims responsibility for sabotage near Moscow — destroying a transformer substation in Mogiltsy. They claim power & comms at multiple key military sites are disrupted.
Behind the Lines
Done deal: Ukraine's parliament has officially ratified the agreement on critical minerals and the creation of a Reconstruction Investment Fund — passed with 338 votes in favor.
Alex Rauflogu: The MEGOBARI Act was received in the Senate. Read twice. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 70 This bill counters Ivanishvili regime dragging Georgia toward Iranian terrorists, Chinese CCP, and war criminal Putin, Rep Joe Wilson said.
"The passage of the MEGOBARI Act, with a mandate vote of nearly 90 percent, demonstrates America’s support for legitimate President Salomé Zourabichvili and the Georgian people and the rejection of the tyrannical mafia cabal, which is selling out Georgia to dictators. The Georgian Dream insults President Trump. The only way forward is for fair elections and the release of all political prisoners"
The Georgian Dream-led government reacted to the MEGOBARI Act: PM Kobakhidze: “This is a hostile act, not a friendly one. It reflects Orwellian logic—friend is enemy, war is peace. It shows the deep state defeated Trump’s administration in this case. Joe Wilson is fully part of the deep state.” (The Deep State has overpowered the Trump administration.)
Reuters: The U.S. and Russia are secretly discussing resuming Russian gas flows to Europe after a potential peace deal with Ukraine. Sources say the talks could give Washington leverage over volumes, while Gazprom is reportedly ready to offer 2-year contracts — despite the EU’s plan to cut all Russian gas by 2027.
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
Putin began talks with Xi Jinping in the Kremlin yesterday, Russian media report. The Chinese president will stay in Russia for several days and is expected to attend the May 9 Victory Parade. The long red carpet (reminds me of the long white table), the walk, the music, the camera's. Self-glorification in full display.
In this morning’s meeting with Putin, Xi Jinping repeated Kremlin-style talking points on Ukraine—calling for addressing the "root causes of the crisis" and pushing for a "just and lasting peace acceptable to all sides" through dialogue. No mention of Russia’s invasion. In the beginning of the full-scale invasion, many analysts thought China could use its influence on Putin to stop their military action. China sees advantage in providing aid and expertise to Russia, and will not move to influence Putin in this way.
Kremlin cites 'dangerous neighbors' as reason for internet restrictions before Victory Day. "These are not disruptions, but restrictions for obvious reasons. We want the glorious Victory Day to be celebrated at the appropriate level," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.
Chaos continues at Moscow airports for a second day — despite official claims that operations are "back to normal", over 100 flights are delayed or cancelled.
Moscow, Red Square May 9th parade
Military communications in Moscow Oblast sabotaged amid Russia's Victory Day celebrations, partisans claim. The Atesh partisan group claims it disabled communication at several Russian military facilities when it allegedly destroyed equipment at a transformer substation in the village of Mogiltsy in Russia's Moscow Oblast.
Meduza: How Russian soldiers and civilians buy their way out of going to war
Many Russian soldiers and civilians are willing to pay large sums of money to avoid being sent to the front in Ukraine. But amid mounting military losses and a shortage of new recruits, bribing your way out of the Russian army is getting increasingly difficult. On top of paying off doctors and commanders, some active duty soldiers resort to injuring themselves in the hopes of getting discharged. Military enlistment offices, meanwhile, have their own corruption schemes for those seeking to avoid conscription. Demand for evading army service has also given rise to a thriving black market, where draft dodgers can purchase forged documents, “fake surgeries,” and even get help fleeing the country — unless they fall prey to scammers or the security services, that is. Meduza special correspondent Lilia Yapparova investigates the price Russians are willing to pay to avoid going to war and how the authorities are cracking down in response.
Spies from Hungary: For the first time in Ukraine’s history, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has uncovered a spy network operated by Hungarian military intelligence, targeting national security interests.
The agents focused on gathering intelligence in the Zakarpattia region—assessing military defenses, identifying weaknesses in air and ground security, and analyzing local public sentiment toward a possible Hungarian military presence. Two operatives have been detained. According to the investigation, both were managed by a Hungarian military intelligence officer whose identity has already been confirmed by the SBU.
In the EU…
Chancellor Merz does not foresee the deployment of German troops in Ukraine following a potential peace agreement. "We are far from a ceasefire, let alone a peace deal," Merz stated. He noted Russia's announced 3-day truce could be extended, but it’s entirely up to Putin.
Trump had a call with Chancellor Merz. They agreed the war in Ukraine needs to stop as soon as possible and called on Russia to accept a ceasefire. Trump said he’d support Europe’s push for peace and both leaders want to fix trade tensions and meet in person soon.
Zelensky confirmed in his evening address that he spoke with Trump about urgently needed U.S. support, frontline updates, and diplomacy — including a real, lasting 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine is ready now to stop — if Russia does too. “America can help with this,” Zelensky said.
Majority of Ukrainians unwilling to trade territory or Western path for peace, poll shows. The survey, conducted between April 24 and May 4, shows that 56.9% of respondents would not be willing to compromise on either territorial integrity or Ukraine’s pro-Western direction in any potential talks with Moscow.
EU eyes new sanctions over Russian hybrid threats, chemical weapons use in Ukraine, Reuters reports. EU ambassadors began talks this week on a 17th sanctions package that targets Russia’s military-industrial complex, Moscow’s shadow shipping fleet, and related support networks.
UK rolls out its largest-ever sanctions package against Russia, PM Starmer announces. Nearly 100 tankers from Russia’s “shadow fleet” are now under restrictions.
35 delegations from EU countries and beyond arrived in Lviv today. On Rynok Square, the EU flag was raised by two Ukrainian children: Yana Stepanenko, who lost her legs in a missile strike, and international olympiad winner Markiyan Mazur.
Ukraine and partner states issued a joint declaration confirming readiness to launch a Special Tribunal on Russian aggression. The legal groundwork is complete—next step: formalization at the Council of Europe meeting in Luxembourg on May 13–14.
FM Andrii Sybiiha thanked EU High Representative Kaja Kallas for her key initiative to supply 2 million artillery shells to Ukraine. EU states have already pledged over 1.35M rounds for 2025—and the push to increase that number continues.
Ukraine may ditch the US dollar and switch to the euro as its main currency, says Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Andriy Pyshny. With growing ties to Europe and a world trade order in flux, Kyiv is rethinking its financial anchors.
Poland and France will sign a mutual defense pact today — pledging military support in case of a threat. The deal also includes cooperation in defense, energy, nuclear, and transport sectors. Ukraine’s Zelenskyy on that meeting of “the coalition of the willing tomorrow,” via Reuters.
“We are also getting ready in Ukraine for a meeting with the leaders of the coalition of the willing. Serious work ahead. We need this coalition, and we need it to be strong enough to guarantee security the way we all agree on.
We need this coalition, and we need it to be strong enough to guarantee security the way we all agree on.”
During Russia’s "Victory Day" parade, a banner appeared on the wall of the museum in Narva, Estonia—facing directly toward Russia and a stage across the border which was broadcasting the parade in Moscow.
Romanian Election- Simion: The leading candidate in Romania's presidential election promises not to provide military aid to Ukraine. George Simion stated he would not "personally vote for aid to Kyiv" but would follow any decisions made by Trump. He justified his stance by claiming that Ukraine "does not respect the rights of the Romanian minority," adding, "We have our issues with Ukrainians because they act much like Russians."
Romania and the Netherlands will establish a joint training center for Ukrainian F-16 maintenance personnel, the Dutch Ministry of Defense has announced.
Ukraine just received €1 billion from the EU under the ERA program, Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal announced. The funds come from profits on immobilized Russian central bank assets and will go toward critical budget needs and strengthening the state.
UK must seek to 'rebuild' trade relationship with EU, says Bank of England governor. The governor of the Bank of England has said he hopes the UK can “rebuild” trade relationships with the EU after striking a trade deal with the US. Andrew Bailey said it would be “beneficial” to reverse the post-Brexit reduction in UK-EU trade, reports the PA news agency.
President Donald Trump on Friday set negotiating terms for his administration’s first discussions with China, which are set to take place in Geneva this weekend.
In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump appeared to lay out his demands — and concessions — for the meeting between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and their Chinese counterparts. Trump said China must import more US goods, and in return, he believes the United States should lower its 145% tariff on most Chinese goods to 80%.
WaPo: Everyone is watching for a trade deal with China
Meanwhile, Trump has launched a full-blown trade war with China. The U.S. has sky-high, 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods (and China has reciprocated), to the extent that The Post’s David J. Lynch says trade has virtually stopped between the world’s two largest economies.
There’s no indication that’s changing anytime soon. Negotiators from the two countries are scheduled to meet in person this weekend, The Post reports, but analysts say there’s only so much progress they can make when the status quo is a trade war.
In the meantime, critical baby gear, such as car seats, is expected to get more expensive — or not be on store shelves at all soon — because most of it is made in China. Same with fast-fashion clothing from Shein and many toys.
And the European Union, another major player in the U.S. economy, is threatening tariffs on American imports. Negotiators have been talking for weeks but aren’t close to a trade deal, The Post’s Ellen Francis reports from Brussels.
“Today’s trade deal with the U.K. starts to highlight less uncertainty,” said Nancy Lazar, chief global economist at the investment bank Piper Sandler, and the fact that China is willing to negotiate on lowering tariffs is good news, too. “As we move into summer, we will have more clarity and deals,” she said.
Trump confirms 'full and comprehensive' trade deal between UK and US. Trump has announced a trade deal between the UK and the US, saying the agreement is a “full and comprehensive one”. He wrote on his social media website Truth Social:
The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come.
Because of our long time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement.
Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!
Trump hyped up the so-called trade deal with the UK, but reality has set in.
According to the PA news agency, Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, was resolute about the need to sign the deal, as he faced suggestions the UK still remained in a worse trading situation with the US than before Donald Trump introduced sweeping tariffs. The deal removes tariffs on UK steel and aluminium imports to the US, and cuts the levy on cars from 27.5% to 10%, offering British luxury carmakers like Jaguar Land Rover a reprieve.
The trade deal includes £5bn worth of agricultural exports from the US to the UK, significantly ethanol and beef- but hormone fed beef and chlorine washed chicken will not be included.
Business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, indicated on Thursday night that thousands people were perhaps “days” away from losing their jobs without the deal.
Asked by BBC Breakfast on Friday morning if agreeing the deal was urgent, Treasury minister Darren Jones said: “Yes. Yes, it was.” Pressed if this was because of the threat of job losses, Jones added: “Of course, which is why it was so important that we’ve got the deal over the line.” The minister also brushed aside suggestions the UK was no better off than before Donald Trump’s tariffs were first introduced. He told the BBC:
If I could rather be in a world where there were no tariffs, of course I would. But that’s just not the world that exists. So it’s not really an option on the table. The option on the table is to have not signed a trade deal with the United States and had higher tariffs, or to have signed a trade deal with the United States and had lower tariffs.
We’ve signed that trade deal. We’ve got lower tariffs in critical manufacturing sectors in the UK. 150,000 people’s livelihoods that we’ve protected as a consequence of that trade deal.
That is, by definition, factually better off as a consequence of the action that this government is taking to stand up for working people across the UK.
In other news…
News Alert: White smoke signals a new pope elected. White smoke has risen above the Sistine Chapel, the signal that cardinals have chosen a new pope on the second day of the conclave.
Robert Francis Prevost was yesterday elected the 267th pope of the Roman Catholic Church, becoming the first pontiff from the U.S. He took the papal name Leo XIV and greeted a cheering crowd of followers at St. Peter’s Square by saying, “Peace be with you.”
Fareed Zakaria: Summing up what is known about him, Jean-Marie Guénois and François Vayne write for the French daily Le Figaro that Pope Leo XIV is “a discrete man of God, almost timid … [H]e has chosen the name Leo XIV in reference to the pope Leo XIII, deceased in 1903, who was the pope of social Catholicism. He is a religious Augustinian, disciple of the great Saint Augustine, animated by love and humility.”
Those who know the new pope from his years working in Peru, where he received citizenship, “recall a calm and grounded leader who would sit down to breakfast with his fellow priests after morning prayers,” writes The Guardian’s Sam Jones. “As a recent profile in Crux noted, Prevost acquired a reputation over the years as a hard-working and ‘moderating influence’ among Peru’s ideologically disparate bishops, a talent that will prove invaluable during his papacy.”
Kaitlin Collins: President Trump confirms that Jeanine Pirro will serve as the next interim DC US attorney after his nominee Ed Martin failed to gain enough support from Republicans on Capitol Hill. (I've been told she will likely be fully nominated eventually.)
Mo: Remember that Pirro is a commentator on a Fox programme. She joins the long list of people from Fox TV who are completely loyal to Trump and who do not have the exprience or competency in the jobs they have been placed.
Social media can be lovely sometimes…
