May 9: E-Stories
RUattacksUA CombatSit BehindLines InRussia Allies A&P NoelReport ISW UKDef Lautman Sumlenny KremlinFileKenyon DW MacDonald CivilGE Davis VDL Landsbergis Buziashvili Darth Jozwiak
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
EU parliament president, Roberta Metsola, has arrived in Kyiv for a visit. She was welcomed by Ukrainian Parliament Chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk. There may be a variety of reasons why Metsola has come to Kyiv, but the significance of the date should not be dismissed. In Moscow today the Russian armed forces are parading on Red Square. (Video care of Noel Report)
Stories we’re following…
Governor: Russian attacks on Zaporizhzhia Oblast village injure woman. Russian troops carried out three strikes on the village of Veselyanka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on May 8, injuring a woman, Governor Ivan Fedorov said.
Governor: Chasiv Yar 'almost destroyed' but 679 people still live there. Vadym Filashkin said it was becoming increasingly difficult for rescue and humanitarian workers to reach those that remain due to Russian shelling, with attempts only being made at night or early in the morning.
Governor: 11 children brought back from Russian-occupied territory. The 11 returned children included two orphan girls aged 10 and 13. The other nine children — four boys and five girls aged one to 16 — are half-orphans, Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.
DW: Oleksandr Chebotaryov is the only radiologist left in Kherson. All of his colleagues have fled the city in this embattled region of Ukraine.
Combat Situation Update
Russian forces have taken over the village of Kyslivka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and the village of Novokalynove in the Donetsk region, Russia’s defence ministry said. It said in a statement that Russian forces hit military and energy facilities in Ukraine with drones and missiles in retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities.
ISW: Russian forces have also intensified strikes against Ukrainian transportation infrastructure in recent weeks in an apparent effort to disrupt Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and constrain the flow of expected US security assistance to the frontline.
Russian forces recently made significant tactical gains northwest of Avdiivka and advanced elsewhere west of Avdiivka.
Geolocated footage published on May 7 and 9 shows that Russian forces marginally advanced east of Yampolivka (west of Kreminna) and north of Bilohorivka (south of Kreminna).
Russian forces continued offensive operations east of Chasiv Yar and in the Siversk direction (northeast of Bakhmut) on May 8, but there were no changes to the frontline in these areas
Overnight, Ukraine once again attacked an oil depot. This time in Yurovka, Krasnodar Krai in Russia. At least seven explosions were recorded. Several oil tanks are on fire. One big oil tank visually taken out.
"About 6 UAVs were suppressed, but several fell on the territory of the oil depot. As a result, a fire started and several tanks were damaged. There were no casualties and damage control continues," the Anapa mayor's office confirms.
Noel Report: There is a large-scale fire ongoing in a seaport in Russia. A hangar caught fire in the sea trading port of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The fire already covers an area of 5,000 m².
Ukrainian air defense, developed as part of a Ukrainian-American project known as FrankenSAM, shot down a Shahed kamikaze drone from a distance of 9 kilometers.
"We are capable of producing more of this, but we are constrained by the state's lack of money, and we are counting on additional funding, in particular from abroad," CEO of JSC Ukrainian defense industry Herman Smetanin said.
Behind the Lines
Unable to rapidly match Russia’s vast arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles, Kyiv has focused on developing and producing long-range drones so it can hit back at Russia, which has bombed Ukraine throughout the 26-month-old invasion, Reuters reported. “In 2024, Ukraine caught up with Russia in terms of the production number of kamikaze drones similar to the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136,” Herman Smetanin, head of Ukraine’s state arms manufacturer, told the defence ministry’s media outlet, ArmyInform.
Kremlin File with Nicki Kenyon: Olga and I are joined by Nicki Kenyon, associate managing director of the Institute for Financial Integrity to talk about all the ins and outs of sanctions and other measures that have been levied against Russia due to its war of aggression against Ukraine.
An “undeclared” Russian military intelligence officer, named as Col Maxim Elovik, will be expelled from the UK. James Cleverly, the British home secretary, also announced the closure of several Russian diplomatic premises in retaliation for “malign activity” across Britain and Europe. The Russian properties that have had diplomatic status removed include Seacox Heath in Ticehurst, East Sussex, and the Russian embassy’s trade and defence section in Highgate, north London.
The measures come after a suspected arson attack on a Ukrainian-linked business in east London which authorities suspect was organised by the Kremlin, and over which charges have been laid. Russia has denied involvement. In a separate case, six Bulgarian nationals have been charged with conspiring to commit espionage on behalf of Russia in the UK.
Poland was targeted by a hacking attack from Russian APT28 group this week, the state-run National Research Institute (NASK) said on Wednesday.
“Malware targeting Polish government institutions was distributed this week by the APT28 group, associated with Russia’s intelligence services,” Reuters reports NASK said in a statement. “Technical indicators and similarities to past attacks allowed the identification of the APT28 group.”
Zelensky holds 'focused' call with Orban, invites him to peace summit. President Volodymyr Zelensky held "a lengthy and focused" call with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on May 8, Zelensky wrote on X.
Hungary’s position is important to us in terms of bringing peace closer and our shared regional security. I underscored Ukraine’s interest in good-neighbourly relations with Hungary, as well as in the development of cooperation in trade, energy, and logistics. We coordinated next steps to resolve the full range of bilateral issues in a mutually beneficial manner. We also discussed Ukraine’s EU integration.
Hungary refuses to support the NATO fund of €100 billion for Ukraine, calling the plan a "crazy mission". Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto reiterated the government's earlier opposition to the plan. (Me: when I read this, my first superficial impression is that Hungary would like something in exchange for its support for Ukraine. It’s leveraging its relationship with Russia and China against the EU.)
Ukraine’s parliament has voted to dismiss deputy prime minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, a key government figure who has overseen the wartime reconstruction effort and championed efforts to set up a vital Black Sea shipping lane, Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zheleznyak said on Telegram. The 41-year-old’s dismissal comes amid plans to break up his powerful ministry into two separate government portfolios.
Civil.ge: Citing laws banning use of Soviet symbols in Georgia, protesters put Georgian, EU flag stickers on hammer and sickle signs featured on Galaktioni Bridge.
Meanwhile in Russia
The Kremlin said that it valued its relations with North Korea, when asked about a report that Russia has been shipping refined petroleum to North Korea at levels that appear to breach a cap set by the United Nations Security Council. “We value our bilateral relations with North Korea and intend to further develop them in all possible areas,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. North Korea, he said, was “our good and very promising partner.”
China’s foreign ministry congratulated Putin on his inauguration, according to a spokesperson. “China congratulates president Putin on his inauguration,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, noting president Xi Jinping had already sent a congratulatory message to Putin on his re-election.
Tass reports that a Moscow court has kept deputy minister of defence Timur Ivanov in pre-trial detention after he was charged with receiving an exceptionally large bribe. It reports that a judge said “The court decided to leave Ivanov’s appeal without satisfaction, and the decision of the first instance – without change”.
Armenia refuses to finance Russian-led CSTO security alliance. In recent months, Armenia has taken an increasingly belligerent stance towards Moscow and, in March, threatened to leave if the military alliance fails to address Armenia's collective security concerns.
Reuters: Estonia is to summon Russia’s chargé d’affaires over claims that Russia has been jamming GPS signals over the Baltic sea, which has been affecting thousands of commercial flights.
Putin has accused the West of risking a global conflict and said no one would be allowed to threaten the world’s biggest nuclear power as Russia marked the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two.
As Russian troops advance against Ukraine’s Western-backed forces, Putin accused “arrogant” Western elites of forgetting the decisive role played by the Soviet Union in defeating Nazi Germany, and of stoking conflicts across the world, Reuters reported.
“We know what the exorbitance of such ambitions leads to. Russia will do everything to prevent a global clash,” Putin said on Red Square after defence minister Sergei Shoigu reviewed troops lined up in a blizzard.
“But at the same time, we will not allow anyone to threaten us. Our strategic forces are always in a state of combat readiness.”
Jay in Kyiv: Russia's newest colony of Central African Republic is participating in Putin's May 9th celebrations. If you've not been paying attention, Russia has taken over several central African countries and that cannon fodder will be poured into European wars.
An “undeclared” Russian military intelligence officer will be expelled from the UK, the home secretary has said, as he also announced the closure of several Russian diplomatic premises.
James Cleverly told lawmakers in London: “Today in conjunction with the foreign secretary, I am announcing a package of measures to make clear to Russia that we will not tolerate such apparent escalations.”
I can tell the House that we will expel the Russian defence attache, who is an undeclared military intelligence officer.
We will remove diplomatic premises status from several Russian-owned properties in the UK, including Seacox Heath house, a Russian-owned property in Sussex, and the trade and defence section in Highgate, which we believe have been used for intelligence purposes.
We are imposing new restrictions on Russian diplomatic visas, including capping the length of time Russian diplomats can spend in the UK.
Allied Support
The European Union has reached a deal to seize profits from Russia’s frozen assets to fund weapons and aid for Ukraine, overcoming a hitch about a tax windfall for Belgium. EU senior diplomats meeting on Wednesday agreed a compromise on using the €4.4bn windfall profits to aid Ukraine, smoothing over a dispute about taxation and management costs in Belgium, the country where most of the frozen assets are held.
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis expressed readiness to discuss the provision of a Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine during his visit to the US.
"President Biden mentioned the subject during our meeting and I said I was open to discussion. I should discuss this with the Supreme Defense Council to see what we can offer and what we can get in return because it is unacceptable leave Romania without air defense," Iohannis said.
The first batch of 180.000 units of ammunition purchased as part of the Czech initiative can be delivered to Ukraine as early as June. In the future, deliveries of much larger volumes are planned, President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel said. "There are already contracts for a further five or six-figure number of rounds," he added.
Sergej Sumlenny speaks with Marian Kulich from @MierUkrajine initiative about how they raised over €4,000,000 within a fews days in Slovakia for Ukraine's artillery shells (in Germany it would be €80,000,000 compared to Germany's population!)
Lithuanian FM Gabriellius Landsbergis on the BBC’s Hard Talk: Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons many times, but it's always a bluff. He has nothing to gain from nuclear war, he has everything to lose. When his empty threats make us back down, he escalates anyway. Every time. That's the reality of de-escalation.
Georgia protests
On May 13, the Georgian government, headed by Georgian Dream, will vote in the 3rd reading of the Russian-modelled foreign agents’ bill, and then it will go to the prime minister, who has already declared she will veto it. Unfortunately, the government can override the veto.
In March, the Georgian government had tried to present the bill, but it met widespread dissention from Georgians and from the EU, which stated that such a law would stop Georgia’s EU accession process.
Eto Buziashvili: Things have been developing quickly over the past 2-3 weeks in Georgia, but in the last couple of days, they have progressed at an unimaginable speed. The ruling Georgian Dream party has employed various tactics targeting civil society, escalating to an extreme level.
Exclusive know-how: 100s, if not 1000s, of people—activists, NGO reprs, media, and their families—are receiving calls from foreign cell numbers, with insults and threats. This is very likely a coordinated and centralized effort to sow fear and intimidate civil society.
An increasing number of physical attacks on representatives of NGOs, media, and teachers, either in the streets or at their homes, have been reported. They are being attacked by so-called Titushky.
[Posted May 3: Another tactic from the Kremlin playbook that the Georgian govt has adopted to disperse protests is usage of Titushky. The term was coined during Ukraine's Euromaidan to describe a group of unidentified provocateurs who incite violence to facilitate the arrest of protesters.]
The ruling Georgian Dream party is not even waiting for the passage of the Russian-style foreign agents law, it's already operational. Today, they announced the creation of a database (a kind of enemy/blacklist) where they will place all individuals undesirable to them.
Following this statement, at least two Telegram channels were launched today that began leaking personal information, including the addresses and phone numbers of representatives of NGOs, media, activists, etc.
There's already massive terrorising happening in Georgia and the Russian copy-pasta Agents Law is not even passed yet.
It was right after I finished tweeting this post that Tbilisi was shaken by news of Titushky attacking at least 4 people simultaneously in different locations: a university professor, a protest organizer, a politician. Now, the regime is targeting dissenters at the entrances of their homes.
What to do? Would applying EU sanctions against Georgia change anything?
In my view, it would not because the Georgian Dream party, which heads the government, is headed towards much closer relations Russia in any case. It is to be remembered that Benzina Ivanshvili controls roughly 30% of the Georgian economy, not including those who are within his circle.
What it would do is send a clear message to Georgians on the front line of the protests that the EU supports them, which is no small thing. Realising they are not alone is a psychological boost for those who face the forces of violence.
Whether the U.S. and the E.U. has leverage against the Georgian Dream party in this situation remains to be disclosed. It is, however, imperative that they do move quickly. Georgia has an important geo-strategic position in the Black Sea, which could benefit Russia in many ways.
The Georgia Court of Appeals will consider an effort by Donald Trump and his co-defendants to disqualify District Attorney Fani Willis from the 2020 election subversion case.
In a brief order Wednesday, the court said it will hear the appeal from Trump and others challenging the ruling from Judge Scott McAfee that allowed Willis to remain on the case.
Thanks for the additional info about Georgia. Between the Middle East and Russia it's hard to get info about any other important news stories!!!!