May : E-Stories
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Catching up…
For specific news about Trump, his regime and its dealings with Russia, I direct you to Olga’s substack. She and Julie Roginsky publish a weekly podcast, “Pax Americana”, which is highly informative.
For a general view of news from various geopolitical threatres, Scott’s EA Worldview is always superb.
Let’s get going…
Stories we’re following…
Odesa Up-date: Ukrainian emergency services reported that a Russian drone attack on Odesa killed two people and injured 15 others. AP reported local authorities saying the barrage struck apartment buildings, private homes, a supermarket and a school.
Russian drone attack on Zaporizhzhia kills 1, injures 14. Russia forces launched drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia late at night on May 1, killing one person and injuring seven others, local officials reported.
Fox News: VP JD Vance says the Trump administration is now focused on brokering a “durable solution” to the Russia–Ukraine war within 100 days. “We’ve issued a peace proposal and will work hard to bring both sides together,” he told Fox News Digital.
The U.S. will no longer act as a mediator in efforts to end the war in Ukraine, says State Dept. spokesperson Tammy Bruce. “We’ll continue to help, but we won’t be flying around the world to mediate every meeting. It’s now up to the two sides.” On Fox News, Secretary of State Rubio stated that there is no military solution to the war.
Combat Situation
Russian Telegram channels say Ukrainian drones hit near Zhuravlivka in the Simferopol area. Air defenses and the Black Sea Fleet were active over Orlovka, Kacha, and the coast near Tarkhankut. Some drones were also flying toward Yevpatoria and Saky.
Explosions and drone interceptions happening in Hvardiiske, Simferopol, Heroiske, and Novofedorivka. Russian sources say the UAV threat is still active in multiple areas.
At least one Ukrainian UAV reportedly hit Russia’s GRU radio-technical intel complex "Zvezda" near Stavropol — again. This secretive site (unit №33443) is key to Russia’s space signals intelligence.
ISW: Russia continues to reject US and European proposals to deploy Western peacekeeping forces to Ukraine and calls for Russia to make territorial concessions in pursuit of a lasting peace in Ukraine, signaling the Kremlin's unyielding negotiating position.
Forbes: At current pace, it would take Russia 231 years and 100M+ casualties to conquer Ukraine, per Forbes. Despite losing 36,600 troops & 4,800 vehicles in April alone, Russia’s force is growing—now 600,000 strong—thanks to mass recruitment and war-time spending.
Behind the Lines
Orban stated that the EU's policy of military support for Ukraine and its accession to the community could lead to Europe's bankruptcy. 'European money is being transported to Ukraine on wheelbarrows,' and the EU economy is facing a severe shortage of funds.
Weiss & Rushton, Russia’s New Weapon: Child Suicide Bombers
Nearly a month later, one early evening in March, two teenagers, one 15 and the other 17, were walking near the railway station in the city of Ivano-Frankivsk, in a part of west Ukraine largely spared from the daily carnage of war, when the improvised explosives they were carrying exploded. The older of the two was killed instantly; his younger friend was hospitalized with severe injuries. The device they had been carrying, which they’d assembled under the supervision of their Russian handlers, had been constructed with GPS tracking and remote detonation, as was the case with the bomb in Mykolaiv. As the two teenagers walked close to their target, their Russian handlers, who had initially recruited the pair with the prospect of earning “easy money” for simply making and planting the bomb, according to the Ukrainian security services, called in the detonation. The teenagers hadn’t realized they were going to be part of the butcher’s bill.
These attacks were just the latest examples of a tactic increasingly used by Russian intelligence in Ukraine, which is reminiscent of the more grisly actions of militant groups: turning gullible or desperate civilians into human weapons. “It’s al Qaeda and ISIS-level tactics,” said Ed Bogan, a former CIA officer with extensive experience dealing with both Russia and international Islamist terrorist groups. “There are no limits to what the Russians will do now.”
Meanwhile in Russia & China…
TikTok was fined $600 million by its lead EU privacy regulator over concerns on how it protects user information and was ordered to suspend data transfers to China if its processing is not brought into compliance within six months.
Financial Times: The CIA has released two Chinese-language videos on YouTube and other social media channels in a campaign to sow disillusionment among Chinese Communist party members and boost efforts to recruit spies in China.
The US intelligence agency posted the videos on social media platforms, including Instagram and Facebook, on Thursday. They are titled “Why I Contacted CIA: To Take Control of My Fate” and “Why I Contacted CIA: For a Better Life”.
“No adversary in the history of our nation has presented a more formidable challenge or capable strategic competitor than the Chinese Communist party. It is intent on dominating the world economically, militarily, and technologically,” said CIA director John Ratcliffe.
Greek authorities have arrested a man in the port city of Alexandroupolis on suspicion of photographing supply convoys going to Ukraine on behalf of Russia, AFP reported, quoting police. The suspect, a 59-year-old Greek of Georgian descent, was arrested in the northeastern city on Tuesday and on Friday was taken before an investigating magistrate, according to police and media reports.
The source added that the suspect, who had served in the Russian army in his youth, had apparently been enlisted by Russia’s GRU military intelligence service via an intermediary – although AFP reported a source as saying that the man told police that he had declined payment and was sending the footage voluntarily.
In the EU…
France condemns North Korea’s involvement in Russia’s war on Ukraine, calling it a blatant disregard for international law. "This escalation poses a direct threat to European and global security. France urges North Korea to cease all support for Russian aggression," they write.
Reuters: Europe set to redistribute €3 billion in frozen Russian funds to Western investors, following Moscow's seizure of investor cash in Russia. A new chapter in the financial fallout of Russia's invasion in Ukraine.
Ukrainian FM Andrii Sybiha said in a social media update that he spoke with the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas about the Ukraine-EU agenda and the minerals deal signed last night. He said the agreement “marks an important milestone in Ukraine–US strategic partnership aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s economy and security.”
Secretary of state Marco Rubio hailed France for rallying support for a Ukraine peace deal but said that European allies need to step up with real resources and political will to help the war, Reuters reports, citing the US state department. France’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barro, said “Secretary Rubio commended France’s leadership in rallying European and Ukrainian support for a sustainable deal but made clear that words are not enough.”
Germany's domestic intelligence agency classified the far-right Alternative for Germany as an extremist entity that threatens democracy, a move enabling it to better monitor the party that came second in February's federal election.
The agency said that its view, based on a review spanning three years, is that the party’s “ethnic-based” policy seeks to “devalue entire population groups” by treating them as second-class citizens.
UK: There were six mayoral elections yesterday. Labour has won three of them, the Conservatives have won one, and Reform UK has won one – although it is also reportedly confident of winning the one that is yet to declare, Hull and East Yorkshire. But Reform UK is the only party to come either first or second in all five contests that have already finished counting.
Can’t let this one go: The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said the US-Ukraine minerals deal was the “first of its kind, economic partnership for the reconstruction and long-term economic success of Ukraine”.
Mo: I understand that the spokesperson for the White House is on Trump’s team, but selling the minerals deal as ‘great’ or unique distorts history.
In 1948, the US launched the Marshall Plan to provide economic aid to European nations, that had been devastated by the destruction of the Second World War. It involved transferring $13.3 billion in economic recovery programs to Western European nations over four years.Poverty and destitution would have been the perfect humus for communism to grow in Europe, so the plan had strategic value for the US.
A strong Europe was needed to head off the spread of Soviet communism, which had already taken hold in eastern Europe. By rebuilding economies, the plan aimed to create stable conditions for democratic governments to thrive. Therefore, it fostered international trade between European countries and between Europe and the United States, contrary to the narrative that the US did not want a strong Europe or that the European Union was created to destroy the US.
In other news…
Australia: Voters will this weekend go to the polls. The U.S. — and President Trump — is the dominant foreign factor in an election mostly fought on domestic issues.
Trump has approved the first export of military equipment to Ukraine since assuming the presidency, The Times has reported, following the signing of the long-anticipated minerals deal between Washington and Kyiv. The Trump administration informed the US Congress that it plans to export defence-related products to Ukraine through direct commercial sales (DCS) of $50m or more. The U.S. is sending decommissioned F-16s from Davis-Monthan AFB to Ukraine to be used as spare parts donors, as reported by TMZ.
Trump’s interview for the first 100 days of his presidency.
CNN: Stronger than expected job market for April. The long-resilient jobs market continues to defy expectations — even in the wake of swirling uncertainty. The US economy added a surprisingly strong 177,000 jobs in April, a slight slowdown from March’s downwardly revised 185,000 gains, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.
NYT: Trump announced yesterday that he was removing his national security adviser, Michael Waltz, naming Secretary of State Marco Rubio as his interim replacement, and instead nominated Waltz as ambassador to the U.N. It was the first major personnel overhaul of top White House aides, and the kind of move he had wanted to avoid in his second term.
Waltz had been on thin ice since he organized a group chat on the app Signal to discuss a sensitive military operation in Yemen and accidentally included a journalist. Rubio will hold both positions for now, something that no other official has done simultaneously since Henry Kissinger held the titles under the Nixon and Ford administrations.
A photo of Waltz’s Signal chat was taken during a cabinet meeting (Photo: Reuters).
CNN: Trump says Harvard University will be stripped of its tax-exempt status, an extraordinary move amid a broader chess match over free speech, political ideology and federal funding at the Ivy League school and across American academia.
POLITICO Washington: When The Wall Street Journal published a bombshell report Wednesday evening that Tesla’s board had considered hiring a new CEO during the height of ELON MUSK’s DOGE involvement, it sent its current CEO and special government employee into a rage on X.
"It is an EXTREMELY BAD BREACH OF ETHICS that the @WSJ would publish a DELIBERATELY FALSE ARTICLE and fail to include an unequivocal denial beforehand by the Tesla board of directors.” He later posted: "WSJ is a discredit to journalism."
Senator Stan Kutcher: Canada’s democracy is under threat from both Russian disinformation and a growing wave of Trump-aligned rhetoric echoing the Kremlin’s playbook. In our latest oped, Marcus and I explore how these converging narratives are designed to destabilize and divide.
