Nov 1: E-Stories
Day614 Kyiv UAstrikesCrimea S400 Robotyne Avdiivka MOL BlackSea Dagestan RUoil recruting AlliesAid Israel McConnell Garavand A&P Zelenskyy ISW UKDef GaslitNation Panyi Alander Davis
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Once a week, Ukrainian children come to this pet therapy centre in Kyiv. I’m thinking of all the love Rudy gives us every day, how warm and sincere he is. This just makes me tear up.
Stories we’re following…
A total of 12 Shahed drones and two Kh-59 were launched towards Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian air defense managed to shoot down all targets.
Spokesman for the UA Air Force Yuriy Ignat said that Russia most likely used ballistic missiles during an early morning attack in Odesa. People's Deputy Oleksiy Goncharenko stated that a total of 6 Onyx missiles were likely used and a ship repair site near Odesa was hit.
Combat Situation Update
Ukraine’s army said it had overnight “successfully hit” the Russian anti-air regiment near Olenivka in occupied Crimea. A total of 17 Russian servicemen were wounded and 5 vehicles were damaged as a result of the attack.
part of Russia’s air defence system located Agence France-Presse reports.
“The armed forces successfully hit a strategic object of the air defence system on the western coast of occupied Crimea,” the army’s strategic communications unit said on social media.
Explosions were reported in Sevastopol near Strilets'ka bay. Also, there is a probable attack on the airport (Saky) near Novofedorivka. (Monique: Ukraine continues to hit targets in occupied Crimea, which means that the territory is becoming more and more untenable. That’s the strategy. Force the Russians to begin moving their defences eastward.)
Ukrainian StratCom confirmed that a Russian S-400 air defense complex was destroyed in occupied Luhansk on October 25 while also hitting a part of an air defense complex last night in Crimea.
Monique: This news is important because the S-400, better known as the ‘Triumph’, was supposed to be like the Israeli Iron Dome and touted as the most advanced form of aerial defence. It costs $500mln. It’s beatable, which means its asking price may now go down as it has been proven ineffective and vulnerable on the international arms market.
Russia is throwing everything it’s got: in president Zelenskyy’s address this evening, he underscores that fact that Russia has “mobilised all forces” so it doesn’t lose control of the occupied territories, but there are rumblings inside Russia for the second time this year.
Monique: as the geopolitical order continues to destabilise with the eruption of wars in other areas, attention on Ukraine is waning. Europe is still safe because Ukraine is keeping the Russian forces from striking countries like Moldova or further afar. The Russians will not stop—Russia is an aggressor state—it must be up to Ukraine and its allies to defeat Russia and liberate all of Ukraine. That means us.
Russian troops made unsuccessful attempts to regain lost positions near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Donetsk Oblast's Andriivka, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on Oct. 30. Ukraine liberated Robotyne in August and Andriivka in September.
The Ukrainian general staff has said Russian forces have continued trying to regain control over Andriivka to the south of Bakhmut, which Kyiv’s forces said they had retaken in September. It said Ukraine’s troops continued to conduct assault operations south of Bakhmut and were inflicting losses in manpower and equipment, Reuters reports.
Russian victory in Avdiivka would “lock Ukraine out” of the southern Donbas, warns Michael Clarke, distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and visiting professor in defence studies at King’s College London, in the Sunday Times:
Russia’s renewed attack at Avdiivka, which began on the weekend of October 7, is particularly significant. The Russians have diverted scarce resources to try, yet again, to surround the city, bringing in about six brigades and a great deal of air power and artillery from other units, bombarding the two Ukrainian brigades holding the city. So far, Ukrainian forces have defended the town fiercely and the Russians have not completed an encirclement — though they will keep trying.
Avdiivka is becoming another Bakhmut. Except that Bakhmut had no real strategic importance. It was a symbol the Wagner mercenaries wanted to create for themselves. But Avdiivka does have genuine strategic value: it is on a key route into the city of Donetsk, as close to the airport as it is to the northern suburbs of the city.
The road system makes Avdiivka the gateway to southern Donbas. The Ukrainians have held it against Russian pressure since last year. It is Kyiv’s route to victory in that sector. If they lose Avdiivka now, they will be locked out of the south, and most of what they have achieved in the Donbas further north will count for little. Ukraine’s 1st Tank Brigade has been brought in to defend Avdiivka, while parts of the hard-fighting 47th Mechanised Brigade have been pulled out of the main southerly thrust from Zaporizhzhia and sent east to help defend the city. Fierce battles have been going on for control of the coke and chemicals plant on Avdiivka’s northern flank and the sand quarry at the village of Opytne on the southern flank. These two miserable industrial sites really matter.
Russia has significantly bulked up its forces around Bakhmut, with its soldiers switching from a defensive posture to taking “active actions”, a Ukrainian military commander has said.
“In the Bakhmut area, the enemy has significantly strengthened its grouping and switched from defence to active actions,” Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the ground forces, wrote on Telegram.
He described the situation in the east as difficult, with Russian forces particularly active near the north-eastern Ukrainian-held town of Kupiansk, where he said Moscow’s troops were trying to advance simultaneously in several directions.
Behind the Lines
Moldova has blocked access to the websites of major Russian news media, accusing them of taking part in an information war against the country. Moldova has accused Moscow of trying to overthrow its pro-western government since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. It holds local elections later this week. The new list (31 websites) included 14 Russian news sources, including prominent newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda and website Lenta.ru, as well as Tass and Interfax, Reuters reports.
The success of Ukraine’s new Black Sea export corridor has led to a sharp increase in the number of rail wagons heading to the ports of Odesa region, a senior railways official has said. Valeriy Tkachov, deputy director of the commercial department at Ukrainian Railways, said on Facebook that over the last week the number of grain wagons heading to Odesa ports increased by more than 50% to 4,032 from 2,676.
Five judges working in occupied Crimea sentenced in absentia to 12 years in prison for treason, the Prosecutor's Office of Crimea reported on Oct. 30. The judges were convicted of working with Russian occupying forces after the illegal Russian annexation of Crimea and presiding over legal actions taken against locals who opposed the occupation.
Expert: Russia sent over 8,300 Ukrainian children to 're-education camps' in 2023.
Russia forcibly sent at least 8,330 Ukrainian children to the so-called "re-education camps" this year for the purposes of political indoctrination and militarization, Ukrinform reported on Oct. 30, citing human rights expert Kateryna Rashevska.
These facilities, posing as "rehabilitation institutions," are part of Moscow's strategy to eradicate the Ukrainian identity and turn Ukrainian children against their own homeland, the head of the NGO Regional Center for Human Rights said at a round table discussion hosted by Ukrinform.
Update: 10 injured following anti-semitic riots at Makhachkala airport. At least 10 people are being treated for moderate to serious injuries following anti-semitic riots at the Makhachkala Airport in the Russian republic of Dagestan, the Ministry of Health of Dagestan reported on Oct. 30. Two people are in critical condition. The plane that was attacked by the thugs in Dagestan was full of Muslim children who had gone to Israel to be treated for various illnesses. (Monique: Russia, of course, blamed Ukraine.)
Tamara Krawchenko: My father lives in Central Asia and tells me that regional tv shows in Dagestan whipped up this anti-Jewish sentiment and that authorities are using this as a recruitment drive for more cannon fodder to kill Ukrainians, who dared to elect a Jewish President.
What does the progrom at the airport in Dagestan indicate about Russia?
We often believe Russia to be a monolith. When we say ‘Russia’ what we are really referring to is some areas in Moscow or St Petersburg where Russia’s wealthy citizens, working in the financial or industrial sectors live. The reality of the rest of ‘Russia’ is markedly different.
The video below brings to our attention what is happening in the regions and ‘autonomous’ states that compose the Russian Federation. If there will be destabilisation within, it will come from these areas, and led by the regional leaders. Some of these areas have benefitted from the increase in industrial production in the Russian Federation due to the needs of the military. However, the Russian armed forces has also recruited the majority of the fighting forces from some areas (like Dagestan) for its illegal war in Ukraine.
In a conversation with Andrea Chalupa today, Olga and I talked about how the Dagestan progrom at the airport shows that the Russian government may not have a solid grip over these areas.
Meanwhile in Russia
Reuters: Chinese and Russian military chiefs targeted the US for criticism at a security forum in Beijing, even as China's second-most-senior military commander vowed to boost defense ties with Washington.
Shoigu claims West seeks to expand Russia-Ukraine war to Asia-Pacific region. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has accused the West of attempting to expand the Russia-Ukraine war to the Asia-Pacific region, the Russian state news agency TASS reported on Oct. 30.
UK Defense Ministry: Russian universities instructed not to talk about negative trends in country. Russia's Education Ministry reportedly told universities not to openly discuss "negative political, economic and social trends" in Russia in the course of their academic activities, according to the latest update from the U.K. Defense Ministry.
Women being recruited in Russia into combat roles in Ukraine – UK intel. The private military company (PMC) Redut, which is likely directly sponsored by the Russian Main Directorate of Intelligence, is specifically attempting to recruit women into combat roles in Ukraine for the first time.
Ukraine will not extend its contract with Gazprom to transport Russian gas through its territory. The contract expires at the end of 2024.
Russia fails to win back seat on human rights council after UN vote. Country was suspended from body last year after Ukraine invasion but scale of support for readmittance will worry Kyiv and allies
Russia’s former president, Dmitry Medevedev, has claimed Europe was short-sighted when it moved away from Russian oil.
“Europe has castrated itself in bloody fashion and without anaesthesia by walking away from energy cooperation with our country,” Russian news agencies quoted Medvedev, now deputy secretary of the security council, as saying on social media. “This cooperation is either spoiled or frozen for some time.”
Russian proxies auction off Zelenskyy family's apartment in occupied Yalta, Crimea, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Crimean service reported on Oct. 30. A Russian woman from Moscow bought the apartment for more than 44 million rubles ($477,000).
Allied Support
Prime Minister of The Netherlands Mark Rutte in a conversation with Zelenskyy said that their F-16's will be sent to Romania in the next 2 weeks for the training of Ukrainian pilots. He also said they are working hard to supply Ukraine with Patriot systems and patrol boats shortly.
Germany began training a group of Ukrainian soldiers on the Patriot air defense system, the Luftwaffe reports. 61 Ukrainian military personnel are participating in it. Also, 10 Ukrainian language mediators are starting a multi-week training course.
Switzerland is ready to provide support to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine in expanding its capacity to identify missing persons, - the press service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.
Azerbaijan sent electrical equipment worth $7.6 million to Ukraine. It includes more than 555.000 meter of electrical cables and wires. A convoy of 14 aid trucks is being sent to support efforts to restore sustainable power supply in the areas affected.
Finnish PM Petteri Orpo: EU membership negotiations with Ukraine may begin in December between the EU and Ukraine, according to comments Orpo made to Finnish multimedia company Yle.
US House Speaker Mike Johnson to support defense funding for Israel but not Ukraine. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson will support a standalone bill that includes defense funding for Israel but not for Ukraine, Johnson said in an interview with Fox News on Oct. 29.
Minna Alander: World War 3 or World War 3s
I don’t think it’s likely that we’re headed to a World War 3 that comes with a big (nuclear) bang. It’s more likely that we could see a cascading series and coincidence of wars in different parts of the world (rather world wars than a World War).
The effect would be, as we already see now: difficulty to focus attention and resources when too many things are happening at the same time.
Much will depend on the US ability to contain this development in the parts of the world where it has extended deterrence obligations.And that ability, in turn, will depend on the political trajectory in the US, i.e. whether the commitment holds to stick to treaty obligations and other commitments to allies and partners. (See Trump 2.0)
The problem with this potential trajectory of cascading “world wars” is that it likely requires a different containment strategy than one big World War 3 would. Hesitance in countering one adversary (out of fear of WW3) can rather embolden others, hence leading to the world wars.
It’s understandable why many Western leaders, due to their socialisation in the Cold War, still think of one big WW3 as the worst case scenario. But unfortunately, we need to be more creative what comes to possible worst cases, and think outside the old frameworks.
Around the World
Official Readout- Oct 29: Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke via phone with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The Secretary again condemned Hamas’s barbaric terrorist attack against Israel. The two discussed the need for engagement with regional leaders to prevent the spread of the Israel-Hamas conflict, secure the release of hostages, and mobilize humanitarian aid. The Secretary shared President Biden’s announcement that the United States will provide $100 million in humanitarian assistance for the Palestinian people in Gaza and the West Bank. The two also discussed progress on Sweden’s accession to NATO.
NYT: Israel said that it had hit 100s of Hamas targets in Gaza over the last few days, continuing to bomb and expand ground operations in the enclave, as President Biden called on Israel to prioritize the “protection of civilians.”
Reuters: Palestinians in Gaza reported fierce air and artillery strikes as Israeli troops backed by tanks pressed into the enclave with a ground assault that prompted more international calls for civilians to be protected.
Official Readout U.S. State Department: Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke today with Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Secretary Blinken and Prime Minister Al Thani discussed the humanitarian situation in Gaza amid Israeli military operations following Hamas’s horrific and ongoing terrorist attacks. The Secretary reiterated his thanks to the Qatari government for its work to secure the exit of U.S. citizens and foreign nationals from Gaza, the release of hostages held by Hamas, including two American citizens, and continued efforts to prevent the conflict from spreading. The Secretary and the Prime Minister discussed the vital importance of protecting all civilian lives and providing sustained humanitarian assistance for the Palestinian people.
This is Armita Garavand, an Iranian schoolgirl, who was beaten by hijab police and killed. Cameras are everywhere to identify and arrest unveiled women. She died of her wounds on Oct 28. She was 16 years old.
Nasrin Sotoudeh, a prominent lawyer and human rights defender, who was present yesterday at her funeral, was violently beaten by repressive forces at the cemetery. She has reportedly been arrested. She had earlier condemned Armita’s death as a state-killing.
On Thursday, the Islamic Regime in Iran will become Chair of the U.N. Human Rights Council Social Forum.
Mtavari Georgia: The country of one oligach- To transport the tree belonging to Bidzina Ivanishvili, police blocked the road on one of the highways of Georgia, removed the road signs, and limited the electricity supply to some of the villagers.
Reuters: Australia has rejected European Union proposals for a free trade agreement, and a deal is now unlikely to be reached for several years, Australian government ministers said.
Programming note…
Gaslit Nation: Are Putin and Trump Winning?
Gaslit Nation features historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat, author of the bestselling book Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present, Russian mafia expert Olga Lautman, co-host of the Kremlin Files podcast.
In this episode, we discuss whether Putin and Trump are winning and how to stop them; how to navigate the hellscape during a time of cults on the far-right and far-left; why are Americans having Ukraine fatigue even though Russian fascism helps prop up the Republican Party threatening our own democracy, and how to build a livable future even when everything feels especially demoralizing and overwhelming.
Stellar interview with Ruth. All good information
See you tomorrow? Missed you last week... hope you’re all doing well...