Nov 12 The Saturday Edition
Day 262: Kherson, 3,000, RU reaction, Kakhovka, Antonisvsky, Nikopol, $37B, IAEA, 700, G20, POL, Turkey, S.Korea, GER, COP27-A&Ps-Ignatius, Szbolcs, UA Institute Kokcharov, Dmitri, Bansky, Volkov
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Thanks for your patience this week. I attended a series of eye-opening meetings, which have given me diverse perspectives on the delicate balance of international relations at this moment, and how to communicate about it.
Liberation…Kherson
The Sunday Edition of EuroFile will feature a Liberation of Kherson special with videos and posts to chronicle November 11, 2022 for posterity. I’ve been watching videos all day and they are so moving. Let’s get to the main news of the day.
Ukrainian troops enter Kherson. Ukraine's Armed Forces entered the city of Kherson on Nov. 11, according to the Defense Ministry's Intelligence Directorate. "Kherson returns to Ukraine, as the Armed Forces enter the city," its statement reads. "The retreat routes are under the fire control of the Ukrainian army.” At about 12 p.m., Russia's Defense Ministry announced the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from the west bank of the Dnipro River, including from Kherson.
General Staff: Ukraine's military liberates 12 settlements in Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian army liberated Kherson Oblast's villages of Dudchany, Pyatykhatky, Borozenske, Sadok, Bezvodne, Ishchenka, Kostromka, Krasnoliubetsk, Kalynivske, Bobrovy Kut, Bezimenne and Blahodatne.
Ukraine liberates nearly 3,000 square kilometers in one day in south. Ukraine's military liberated 3,000 square kilometers in Ukraine's south on Nov. 11, according to Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Operational Command.
UK intelligence: Russian withdrawal from Kherson is ‘public recognition of its difficulties’ on Dnipro River's west bank. Russia is still attempting to evacuate troops from other areas “across the river to defensible positions on the east bank,” the U.K. Defense Ministry said.
Energy giant DTEK: Russia completely destroyed energy system in Kherson. Executive director of Ukraine's largest private power producer DTEK Dmytro Sakharuk said on TV on Nov. 11 that there is no electricity at all in the city of Kherson.
Russia is forced to move its Kherson occupation government headquarters to the town of Henichesk, a sleepy seaside port city on the Sea of Azovnext to a getaway bridge to Crimea Alexander Fomin, told reporters.
Russians are starting to evacuate their helicopter base in Chaplynka, due to the fact that HIMARS are now in firing range to this Russian-occupied city. The base was also an important CnC post. The moving of gear out of the 90km GLMRS zone will continue.
Residents of the left bank of the Kherson region, which is now under the Russian Federation, receive messages about the need to evacuate, - Russian media.
Four trucks with art stolen from Kherson Oblast arrived in Simferopol, a city in occupied Crimea, according to the Ukrainian military's National Resistance Center. The center said that the Russian soldiers had robbed the Oleksiy Shovkunenko Kherson Art Museum among others. The museum’s collection includes religious paintings of the 17th and early 20th centuries, Ukrainian art of the second half of the 19th and early 20th centuries, and works of contemporary artists, according to the center.
As per Telegram, Russia has banned all ships loaded in third countries to cross under the Crimean Bridge. This restriction will have a economic impact, due to delays, as this means cargoes bound for ports north of Kerch now need to be reloaded in a Russian port. The only port available for that would be Novorossiysk.
Interesting observation: Putin is maintaining distance from the defeat in Kherson. He has not spoken about it and has sent out the military to take the burden of spinning the fantasy of Russian force regrouping. How long he can keep the farce up is anyone’s guess.
Other stories we’re following…
Yesterday, Ukraine repelled lots of Russian ground attacks in Kharkiv: Masyutivka & Orlyanka. Luhansk: Novoselivske, Myasozharivka, Makiivka & Bilohorivka. Donetsk: Soledar, Bakhmut, Krasnohorivka, Verkhnokamianske, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Maryinka & Pavlivka.
Russia fires at Nikopol district more than 50 times overnight. Russia struck three communities in the Nikopol region, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with heavy artillery overnight on Nov. 12, firing more than 50 times at towns and villages, Governor Valentyn Reznichenko said.
Governor: Russia attacks Sumy Oblast with MLRS. Russian troops attacked the border territories with multiple launch rocket systems in the morning on Nov. 12, according to Sumy Oblast Governor Dmytro Zhyvytsky. There have been 10 explosions, Zhyvytsky said.
Besides all the joy in the south, the AFU in Bakhmut faces hell. Russia has increased it's attacks which the Ukrainian forces try to withstand. Here are some pictures shot in the Hospital. Every half hour soldiers are brought in. Wounded and also dead. I won’t post the pictures of the wounded.
UK intelligence: Russia intends to 'strike at civilian morale' in Ukraine. Russian regular attacks targeting electric power infrastructure are impacting critical services for Ukrainian civilians, such as health care and heating, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on Nov. 11. "The continued prioritization of critical national infrastructure over military targets strongly implies Russian intent to strike at civilian morale," reads the report.
Russia's damage to Ukrainian soil, air, forests worth at least $37B. The Russian all-out invasion has caused more than $37.4B worth of damage to Ukraine's environment, according to the Accounting Chamber.
IAEA: Damage to Ukrainian atomic lab after Russian attack 'worse than expected.' The International Atomic Energy Agency said that damage to the Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology was “dramatic and shocking, even worse than expected” but radiation levels were normal.
Since February 24, Service Ssu has exposed more than 700 collaborators, including 227 in the recently liberated territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts, said the SBU spokesman Artem Dekhtyarenko at a briefing at the Military Media Center, Ukrinform reports.
Air Force: Russia might launch mass missile attack on Ukraine during G20 summit. Colonel Yurii Ihnat said Russia prefers to "carry out some kind of provocations around such days." Russia launched its latest mass attack on Oct. 31, hitting energy facilities across Ukraine.
Minister: Poland hands over 1,570 Starlink systems to Ukraine. Digital Transformation Minister Fedorov said that the systems have already been delivered to Ukraine. “This is especially important now because we have problems with electricity due to Russian shelling,” he said.
Turkey is committed to seeking a peace dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, President Erdoğan said on Saturday, Turkish media reported. “We are working on how to create a peace corridor here, like we had the grain corridor,” Erdoğan was quoted as telling reporters on a flight from Uzbekistan.
WSJ: South Korea to sell Ukraine-bound munitions to US. The U.S. will purchase artillery shells from South Korea that are destined for Ukrainian Armed Forces, U.S. officials familiar with the deal told the Wall Street Journal.
US President Joe Biden has thanked Cambodia’s prime minister Hun Sen for his critical remarks about the war in Ukraine. Reuters reports Biden’s comments come as he is due to meet Cambodia’s long-serving leader.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine put it on an "irreversible" path toward a clash with the "collective West", France has warned. "The rupture introduced by the war and the irreversibility of Russian strategic choices make it necessary to anticipate a confrontation with Moscow," the French Secretariat-General for National Defence and Security (SGDSN) said in a Strategic Review published on Wednesday (9 November).
Scholz: Diplomatic solution currently ‘impossible’ for Russia’s war. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Nov. 11 that, during “this murderous war that we are currently experiencing,” Russian President Vladimir Putin is preventing diplomatic rapprochement with Ukraine.
Germany to send Ukraine additional 1B euros for cyber defense, documenting war crimes from its 2023 budget to support Ukraine. The money will go toward countering Russian cyberattacks, collecting evidence of Russian war crimes, and supporting civil society in the broader region.
Bloomberg: Russia is covertly checking its bomb shelters. Russian state workers are quietly checking basements and other shelters not used since Soviet times, people familiar with the efforts told Bloomberg. Inspections and cleanups of civil-defense facilities, which were typically built in the basements of hospitals, apartment buildings, schools and government offices in the Soviet era, are taking place in cities across Russia, sources told the journalists.
Russian oligarchs and executives from multiple companies under international sanctions are among the lobbyists currently attending Cop27. Attenders include billionaire and former aluminium magnate Oleg Deripaska, who is currently under UK sanctions, billionaire Andrey Melnichenko, the former head of Russian fertiliser company the EuroChem group, targeted with individual sanctions by the European Union which he disputed, calling them “absurd and nonsensical”.
Gas giant Gazprom has sent six delegates, alongside the managing director of Sberbank, representatives from oil company Lukoil, mining company Severstal, and Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works are also in attendance, all of which are also currently under US sanctions.
The organization "Andreaskorset", which since 2017 has conducted basic combat training in Kronstadt outside Petersburg and is linked to the cathedral there, plans to create its own volunteer battalions. Another Russian private army, now under the Russian Orthodox Church. Olfa Ehrenkrona observes that “private armies as a phenomenon are an expression of a state power in dissolution and decay. The warlords eventually take over. Putin is blowing up Russia.”
Sec of State Anthony Blinken tweeted: “I have directed another $400 million worth of arms and equipment from the Department of Defense inventories to Ukraine. This is our 25th drawdown since August 2021. As Ukraine’s defenders push back Russia’s forces, the United States stands United With Ukraine.”
Netherlands to allocate additional 110 million euros to support Ukraine in winter. The funds will provide housing, repair water pipes and houses, and purchase gas, food, and electricity, Dutch Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Minister Liesje Schreinemacher said.
US to hold Ramstein-7 meeting next week to discuss aid for Ukraine. "This meeting will be hosted virtually here at the Pentagon and will allow for the Secretary and ministers of defense from nearly 50 countries to discuss efforts to supply Ukraine with the means to defend its sovereignty," said Sabrina Singh, deputy Pentagon press secretary.
Politico: EU sees Hungary's blockage of 18B euros for Ukraine as 'blackmail.' Budapest is blocking Ukraine's 18 billion support package to put pressure on Brussels and prevent the freezing of money for Hungary over its democratic backsliding, Politico reported, citing four EU officials and diplomats who see this move as a "blackmail tactic." German FM Baerbock said Hungary "shouldn't play poker" in this situation, which concerns "saving lives."
David Ignatius, Op-Ed-Russia is in retreat in every major international forum- WaPo
These U.N. bodies might seem trivial. But much of the world’s regulation and standard-setting takes place in these obscure organizations, and they have often been forums for Russian propaganda and manipulation. The Ukraine war is turning these venues into no-go zones for Russian diplomats. Russia still has its veto in the Security Council — and its nuclear arsenal. But much of its other power, hard and soft, is decaying.
Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said during a visit to Kyiv this week: “Is it realistic to hold Russia accountable? Yes, it is. … Russia has heard loudly and clearly from the world that what they’re doing is unacceptable, and while they have the veto power, that veto power is not shielding them from condemnation.”
Panyi Szabolcs, Putin’s hackers gained full access to Hungary’s foreign ministry networks, the Orbán government has been unable to stop them-Direkt36
Hungarian diplomacy has become practically an open book for Moscow through the hacking of the ministry’s networks. Russians are able to know in advance what the Hungarian foreign ministry is thinking and planning, and this is happening at a very sensitive time. Russian infiltration remained active before and partly after the invasion of Ukraine, during the current EU and NATO crisis summits. Meanwhile, there is no sign that the Hungarian government has publicly protested to Russia about the cyberespionage.
Direkt36 uncovered the Russian intelligence operations against the Hungarian foreign ministry and the inadequacy of Hungarian counter-intelligence measures, going back at least a decade, with the help of foreign ministry documents and more than thirty background interviews. For example, we spoke to former Hungarian intelligence and security officers who had worked on Russian intelligence-related fields and had concrete information on many of the cases described in this article. Sources familiar with the internal affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade shared information about the ministry’s handling of the cyberattack.
Russian spin…when you don’t know what to say…
Peskov says 'Kherson remains Russian' as Ukrainian forces enter city. Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Nov. 11 that Russia continues to consider Kherson its territory, despite the withdrawal of its troops from the city, according to Russian state-controlled news agency TASS. Peskov didn't comment on Russian military leadership's decision to leave Kherson.
Mart Kuldkepp: “What's stopping them from declaring everything Russia, if actually controlling the territory is unimportant? St Stremousov's prophetic poem will be cited many times in years to come.”
Reactions from Russia…
Yaroslav Trofimov: “This is obviously authorized (and staged) by Russian authorities w the goal of showing that they have public opinion pressure against any concessions. But it can easily backfire by convincing many Russians (and others) that the regime is going cuckoo and that things must be done.”
Companies still operating in Russia
LeaveRussia.Org: Russia initiated aggression against Ukraine in 2014. On February 24, 2022, it started a full-scale military invasion to the Ukrainian territory. This brutal war and military crimes of Russian troops caused a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine with thousands civilians killed and millions becoming refuges. As a reaction to this act of aggression, many international companies decided to leave the Russian market, while some others continue doing business there as usual. We track such decisions of companies and urge them to stop funding the war.
After Putin- Wall Street Journal
Russia’s president could lose power in any number of ways. What will the end of his rule mean for his own country, Ukraine and the world?
Contributions by Volkov, Stent, Kasparov, Gunitsky and Soldatov
Leonid Volkov: Turmoil- and a Democratic Spring
When Vladimir Putin is gone—whether there is a palace coup, he dies from natural causes, or aliens take him away to Mars—there will be no new Putin. How can I be sure this isn’t wishful thinking? Because we—the team at the Anti-Corruption Foundation, the group founded by jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny—have studied Putinism for over a decade, and we know everything about it.
Mr. Putin’s Russia is a mafia state. This isn’t an insult but a scientific definition. There is Mr. Putin, and there are about 20 key lieutenants, each of them responsible for some particular area. They all hate each other and compete against each other, and no one is allowed to become more than a 10% shareholder of Russia’s power structure. If one of them tries to consolidate power or influence in their hands, others immediately start fighting against them. This isn’t a bug of the system but an essential feature. It is how Mr. Putin designed it 20 years ago and has carefully implemented it.
On the streets of Kyiv…
Programming notes..
