EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russian missile attacks hitting Donetsk, Nikopol, Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts, 3 people killed and 7 wounded. Serhiy Lysak, the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, said Russia had hit Nikopol region 11 times on Tuesday, using kamikaze drones and artillery. He wrote on Telegram that the district centre was most heavily targeted and that a 26-year-old man died.
Russian shelling in Selidove, Donetsk, damaged an apartment building, injuring and trapping people. Rescuers helped some out, but one woman died, and another person might be trapped. Search for the missing person continues.
Military doctors of Ukraine Under fire, in difficult conditions, every day they protect the lives of our soldiers, worry about them and do everything to save them. A huge thank you for their very important and dedicated work to save every life.
Tim Mak: Ukrainian combat medics are now able to perform blood transfusions before the wounded soldiers are admitted to hospitals.
Prosecutor's office: Russian soldiers who killed civilians, including well-known children's writer, identified. Two Russian soldiers who killed at least four civilians in Kharkiv Oblast around the beginning of the full-scale invasion, including the well-known children's writer Volodymyr Vakulenko, were identified by the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine, according to a post on Nov. 14.
NGO Save Ukraine rescues 4 more children from Russian occupation. Two of those children had a short experience of studying in a Russian-controlled school where they saw Russian soldiers pressuring students who spoke Ukrainian in the classroom, according to the organization's founder Mykola Kuleba.
Combat Situation Update
President Zelensky has said Russia is increasing its attacks across the frontline, AFP reports.
Putin currently has a very cynical and clear goal. He is willing to waste whatever number of his own people in order to demonstrate at least some tactical result until mid-December, when he plans to announce his presidential campaign.
Ukrainian forces have secured a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff has been quoted as saying.
“Against all odds, Ukraine’s Defense Forces have gained a foothold on the left (east) bank of the Dniepro,” Andriy Yermak said in an address to the Hudson Institute thinktank in the US.
“Step by step, they are demilitarizing Crimea. We have covered 70% of the distance. And our counteroffensive is developing.”
Brady Africk: The movement of Russian military vehicles and equipment at a base in Crimea is visible in recent satellite imagery.
Think tank explains Russian media gaffe over “withdrawal” of troops from Kherson region. Russian state-run media on Monday published and later retracted a report about the "regrouping" of Russian forces from the left (east) bank of the Dnipro in Kherson region, which could be part of an information operation aimed at forcing the Ukrainian Army to underestimate available Russian manpower in the area.
In Krasnodar region in Russia it is reported that a military unit 'caught fire'. A massive fire was also reported in St Petersburg in a warehouse.
The downing of a Russian Su-25 near Avdiivka was confirmed by Ukrainian military spokesman Oleksandr Shtupun.
Commander: Russia has lost over 4,000 soldiers on eastern front over past 2 weeks. Russian forces have lost over 4,000 soldiers and 500 pieces of equipment in fighting on the eastern front in Ukraine's Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts, Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Nov. 14.
Behind the Lines
Washington Post: Banned Russian oil flows into Pentagon supply chain. Russian oil continues to flow into the American military supply chain despite Western prohibitions, the Washington Post reported on Nov. 14.
Even on Russian propaganda shows they start to admit that logisticsbetween occupied Nova Kakhovka and the Kinburn Spit area are interrupted which leads to supply issues
"The production of naval drones is actively being scaled up, we have already moved to serial production. There are enough of them being produced now. New models with certain "surprises" are being developed, so I think that Russian ships will feel quite uneasy in the Black Sea," said Fedorov, Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine.
President Zelensky reported that after consultation with his staff, the defense capabilities, counterbattery work, electronic warfare and air defense have been strengthened in the Kherson region. "Monitoring the implementation," he adds.
Yellow Ribbon partisans in Crimea working behind the lines: a Ukrainian flag at Mount Boyka in occupied Crimea.
Cyprus lit up with flurry of oligarch transactions after Russia invaded Ukraine, leaked files show. The island country has long been known as an offshore transit point for the fortunes of Russian billionaires, and as sanctions loomed over many of them last year, Cyprus financial services firms fielded a series of urgent demands to transfer funds and shareholdings, newly revealed records show.
In one case, documents show that two Russian billionaires, Alexander Abramov and Alexander Frolov, needed $100 million US transferred between two shell companies they owned. The funds were dividends from their holdings in Evraz PLC, a steel and mining conglomerate with subsidiaries in a number of countries, including Canada. Evraz entities produce almost all the rails used by the Russian trains transporting troops and armaments to the front in the country's Ukraine invasion.
Ukrainian MP who helped Rudy Giuliani, acting as Donald Trump’s lawyer, is charged with treason. The MP received money from Russia for spreading fake news about Ukraine, including accusing Ukrainian politicians of manipulating the US election. Oleksandr Dubinsky, together with ex-Ukrainian lawmaker Andriy Derkach and ex-prosecutor Kostyantyn Kulyk, had joined an organization formed by chiefs of Russia’s Military Intelligence (GRU), Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said in a statement on Monday.
Alex Kokcharov: In Russian-occupied areas in southern and eastern Ukraine, Russian occup.authorities urge civilians not only to switch from Ukrainian to Russian citizenship/passports but also to Russify surnames. This ad from Melitopol advertises surname change from Halushko to Glushkova:
Hungary will block European Peace Facility’s aid allocation to Ukraine. Hungarian MFA made it clear that until Kyiv promises that Hungary’s largest bank, OTP, and other firms will not be listed as international sponsors of war, Hungary will block aid.
Scabolsz Panyi:“Hungarian interference in the Polish elections: Orbán's Cabinet Office paid for anti-immigration advertisements on Polish Youtube right before the country's election. (Meanwhile, Hungarian authorities let thousands of migrants through the Slovak border, who also reached Poland.)”
Meanwhile in Russia
FT: Under new possible EU plans, Denmark will be tasked with inspecting and potentially blocking Russian oil tankers passing through its waters. Roughly 60% of Russian total maritime exports crosses the Danish Straits on its way to international markets.
Finnish Border Guard reports spike in asylum seekers traveling from Russia. The Finnish Border Guard reported a spike in asylum seekers arriving without required travel documents to Finland's southeast border in a statement on Nov. 12.
In Moscow, Russia, an AI-powered radar system to detect and deter combat UAVs was reportedly installed at Sheremetyevo (SVO) airport, the largest airport in Russia.
President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed changes to Russia’s presidential election laws that allow for voting to take place in territories under martial law and introduce new restrictions on media coverage at polling places.
The amendments come just weeks ahead of Putin's anticipated announcement to run for a fifth term in office as president, though the Russian leader has said that he will declare his re-election bid only after parliament formally calls the race, which is expected to take place in March 2024.
The former detective Sergei Khadzhikurbanov, convicted for his role in the 2006 killing of investigative journalistAnna Politkovskaya, has been pardoned after fighting in Ukraine, his lawyer said. “As a special forces fighter, he was invited to sign a contract to participate in the special military operation … When the contract expired, he was pardoned by presidential decree,” lawyer Alexei Mikhalchik told AFP.
Putin has approved changes to the law that governs presidential elections by putting new restrictions on media coverage, local news agencies reported.
Georgian leaders continue to play a double role in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. While the majority of the Georgian population has moved towards the European Union, and away from Putin’s Russia, Georgia’s ruling class and the Georgian Dream party are firmly pro-Kremlin.
Finland considering closing border with Russia. Finland is reportedly considering closing its border with Russia completely, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo stated on Nov. 14.
The EU proposed to ban the export of machines and parts that Russia uses to manufacture weapons and proposes to add chemicals, lithium batteries, thermostats, engines and servomotors for drones to the list of prohibited goods.
The EU will miss its target of supplying Ukraine with 1m artillery shells and missiles by next March, the German defence minister said. Boris Pistorius’s comments, the first public admission by a senior European minister that the target would not be met, were made before a summit of EU defence ministers in Brussels on Wednesday.
Ukrainian FM Kuleba commented on the EU's inability to supply Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells as promised.
"I don't think it has to do with political will, but more with the state of both the European defense industry capable of producing sufficient numbers and the ability to implement complete contracts. There is a lot of bureaucracy, but the EU is trying to remove these problems. That is why I am here in Berlin. If we want to continue to defend Europe in the future, we need a new standard an all barriers need to be removed," the minister emphasized.
Commissioner: EU can produce 1 million shells, missiles per year with enough effort from member states. European Commissioner Thierry Breton said that the EU is capable of producing 1 million artillery shells and missiles per year for Ukraine by spring, provided enough effort from member states, Ukrinform reported on Nov. 14.
The US will provide $1 million to the International Center for the Investigation of Crimes of Aggression against Ukraine, established in The Hague.
President Joe Biden's request for aid to Ukraine is scheduled to be considered by the US House of Representatives after Thanksgiving on November 23.
US House passes spending bill without Ukraine aid. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a stop-gap funding bill to avoid a government shutdown that did not include additional aid for Ukraine or Israel, CNN reported on Nov. 14.
National Security Adviser to the US President, Jake Sullivan, said that the interests of the US may suffer if the aid package for Ukraine is not approved.
"The Biden administration has asked Congress for additional funds to support Israel, Ukraine, the Indo-Pacific region, and strengthen the US border. The request details the needs of each of these areas, including for Ukraine. The administration believes these funds are needed as as soon as possible," said Sullivan.
The Energy Support Fund of Ukraine will soon receivethe first part of the contribution from Denmark in the amount of €4 million, another €3 million will arrive later.
President Zelensky: “I spoke with Georgia Meloni to express gratitude for her and Italy’s strong support for Ukraine. Italy is demonstrating powerful leadership, and I anticipate that its 2024 G7 Presidency will yield even more important results. We coordinated our joint efforts and agreed to start working on bilateral security guarantees following the relevant G7 Vilnius declaration. We discussed our ongoing defense cooperation and the need to speed up the adoption of the 12th EU sanctions package on Russia. I also thanked Italy for supporting the Peace Formula and invited Prime Minister Meloni to take part in the second “Grain From Ukraine” summit.”
Stoltenberg: Negotiations with Russia up to Ukraine's decision. It is Ukraine's decision when and if negotiations should be started with Russia, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said before the EU Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels on Nov. 14, in comments cited by Interfax-Ukraine.
Xi Jinping arrives in US for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in San Francisco on Nov. 14 for his first visit to the U.S. since 2017. He is due to meet President Joe Biden at an undisclosed location in the San Francisco Bay Area the next day.
Olga Lautman: Some good news out of Ukraine this morning. Dubinsky was charged w treason. Finally this Russian agent is being dealt with and Derkach, Russian GRU agent, fled last year. Now waiting for Rudy Giuliani and countless Americans to face justice for knowingly working w Russian agents.
A leak of discovery materials in the Georgia election subversion case against former President Donald Trump and his co-defendants prompted the Fulton County district attorney’s office Tuesday to file an emergency motion for a protective order in an attempt to prevent other material from becoming public.
Trump never intended to give up his power: ABC News has obtained video from Georgia prosecutors' interview with ex-Trump attorney Jenna Ellis, in which Ellis tells them she was personally informed by a top Trump adviser that Trump was "not going to leave" the White House — despite losing the 2020 election..
Programming notes…
Olga and I chat with Ruslan Trad, a Resident Fellow for Security Research at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab). Ruslan is interested in Eurasia, Syria, conflicts, hybrid warfare, and mercenary groups. Before joining DFRLab, he worked as a risk analyst, consultant, and freelance journalist.
We’ll be covering Russian Imperialism, and its Black Sea strategy as well as a plethora of other topics connected to Russia’s use of irregular troops in Ukraine and in North Africa and the Middle East.
We must support Ukraine! Let President Biden know this is imperative!