Nov 16 Buonasera Mag
Day 266: missile, Zaitseve, Kherson, Biden, G20, deportations, weapons, UNGA, UK Macron, CzechRep, Kallas-A&Ps-St Javelin, Vetrov, Tenzer, Soldatov, Giczan, Galsworthy, Applebaum, Davis, Kirillova
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
President Zelensky: "I have no doubt that it was not our missile or our missile strike. We have to participate in the investigation. I want us to be fair and if it was the use of our air defense, then I want this evidence."
Oleksiy Danilov: “We are in favor of a joint study of the incident with the fall of the rocket in Poland. We are ready to hand over the evidence of the Russian trail that we have. We are expecting information from our partners, on the basis of which a conclusion was made that it is a Ukrainian air defense missile.”
Stories we’re following…
Residents and officials in the part of Kherson region still occupied by Russian forces are being urged to leave for Russia. The Military and Civil Administration in Russian-occupied Oleshky, which lies on the east side of the Dnipro river, said on Telegram that it "strongly recommends that the residents of the district leave for safe regions of the Russian Federation."
Rescuers save 566 miners trapped underground due to power outages in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The miners were stuck underground due to energy cut-offs caused by Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
CNN: Ukraine tells US, allies it attempted missile interception near Poland. Ukraine informed the U.S. and its allies that it tried to intercept a Russian missile near and in the timeframe of the missile strike on Poland on Nov. 15, CNN reported, citing a U.S. official.
A Nato aircraft flying above Polish airspace on Tuesday reportedly tracked the missile that landed in its territory, an alliance military official told CNN on Tuesday.
The United States said it has "full confidence" in the Polish investigation into the missile that killed two people near the country's border with Ukraine. The "party ultimately responsible" for the incident is Russia for its ongoing invasion, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a written statement Wednesday.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley attempted to speak with his Russian counterpart Gen. Valery Gerasimov on Tuesday following the missile that fell in Poland, but the attempts were not successful, Milley said during a press conference at the Pentagon on Wednesday.
RFE/RL: Biden says Poland missile 'unlikely' fired from Russia. Speaking at the G20 summit, Biden said the missile that landed in Poland on Nov. 15, killing 2, was “unlikely” fired from Russia due to its trajectory, according to RFE/RL.
Zelensky admits receiving hints that Putin wanted to negotiate. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 16 that Western countries had given “signals” that Russian President Vladimir Putin sought direct talks with Ukraine.
Russia has summoned the Polish ambassador to Moscow to the foreign ministry, ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a quick snap from Reuters.
A draft declaration from G20 leaders said, “Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine,” demanding Russia’s “complete and unconditional withdrawal” from its neighbour’s territory. The declaration warns that “the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. The peaceful resolution of conflicts, efforts to address crises, as well as diplomacy and dialogue, are vital. Today’s era must not be of war.” The Ukraine war, the statement stressed “is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy – constraining growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, heightening energy and food insecurity, and elevating financial stability risks”.
Pentagon chief: NASAMS intercept all Russian missiles in Ukraine. The U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the NASAMS air defense systems provided to Ukraine have a "100% success rate," Sky News reported.
ISW: Russians increasingly turning to social media to express their dissatisfaction with mobilization problems. Sixteen anti-war groups in Russia launched a petition demanding that Vladimir Putin demobilize all mobilized Russian men, the Institute for the Study of War said.
Navy: Russia keeps over 100 Kalibr cruise missiles in Black, Caspian, Mediterranean seas. According to Ukraine’s navy on Nov. 16, Russia has eight ships with up to four Kalibr missiles stationed in the Black Sea.
The Ukrainian Security Service (the SBU) says it has discovered another "torture chamber" allegedly used by Russian forces during the occupation of Kherson.
National Resistance Center: Russia forcibly relocates Ukrainians from occupied territories to Russia’s south. Russia forces Ukrainians from occupied territories to relocate to Russia’s southern regions, Krasnodar and Stavropol, Ukraine's National Resistance Center reported. According to the center, Russian forces create a humanitarian crisis in the occupied territories by relocating medical and educational facilities and putting pressure on locals. Meanwhile, Russians block locals from fleeing to Ukrainian-controlled territories by closing the roads.
Russia's delegation won't attend the fall session of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which is set to take place next week in Warsaw, because Poland has rejected the delegation members' visas, a senior Russian official said Wednesday.
French president Emmanuel Macron said the G20 wanted neither war in Ukraine nor nuclear blackmail and that the meeting had highlighted a “great convergence to push Russia to de-escalate (… ). Russia must return to the negotiating table”.
“China can play a greater mediation role with us in the coming months,” he said, adding that he had discussed with Chinese president Xi Jinping the “principle” of a visit to China at the start of 2023.
Estonian PM Kaja Kallas told Amanpour that “air defense, all the equipment that we have, must be given to Ukraine so they can defend themselves.”
“I can’t look into their warehouses, and see what they [NATO members] actually have, but I can call on the leaders of NATO allies who have more, and say ‘please look to your storage, look to your warehouses, find things that you have, do agreements with [the] private sector who is developing equipment,' so that we can send top equipment to Ukraine and end this war once and for all,” Kallas said.
Czech parliament's lower house recognizes Russian authorities as a 'terrorist regime.' The resolution condemns Russia's mass attacks on civilians and energy infrastructure in Ukraine and supports the establishment of an international tribunal to investigate Russia's war crimes
Sweden to supply Ukraine with air defense systems. According to Sweden’s Defense Minister Pål Jonson, the upcoming military aid package will also include personal all-terrain vehicles, some winter equipment, body armor, and tents.
Reintegration Ministry: Red Cross to provide $2.7 million to liberated Kherson Oblast residents. The Red Cross will provide Hr 100 million ($2.7 million) to aid people living in recently liberated parts of Kherson Oblast, The Reintegration Ministry said on Nov. 16.
US sanctions companies, individuals involved in production, transfer of Iranian drones to Russia. The U.S. Treasury Department unveiled additional sanctions on Nov. 15 on the entities involved in the production and transfer of Iranian drones to Russia.
White House asks for over $37 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden is asking Congress to provide more than $37 billion in additional aid for Ukraine amid recent Russia's attacks on Nov. 15.
The proposed package reportedly includes $21.7 billion in defense aid to continue providing equipment to Ukraine and to replenish depleted U.S. stockpiles, $14.5 billion for direct budget support, $626 million to provide nuclear security support, and another $900 million for healthcare and support services.
Speakers of Czech (Milos Vystrcil and Market) and Polish Parliament refused to attend Visegrad Meeting since they did not want to sit next to the Hungarian Speaker due to Hungarian support for Russian war in Ukraine. Slovak hosts cancelled it altogether.
Anne Applebaum, The Russian Empire Must Die- The Atlantic
A better future requires Putin’s defeat—and the end to imperial aspirations.
Most suffered from one major blind spot: Neither then nor later did most Russian liberals understand that the imperial project itself was the source of Russian autocracy. The White Russian armies lost to the Bolsheviks in part because they would not join forces in 1918–20 with newly independent Poland or would-be independent Ukraine. Democratic ideas did not triumph in either the branch or the trunk in the years that followed the Russian Revolution, partly because the state needed to use so much violence to keep Ukraine, Georgia, and the other republics inside the Soviet Union.
Ksenia Kirillova, Kremlin Analysts Call for Killing of Political Emigrants Abroad- The Jamestown Foundation
On November 2, on the Telegram channel Nezygar, which is associated with the Russian Presidential Administration (Proekt.media, November 28, 2018), a post appeared from Center for the Settlement of Social Conflicts Director Oleg Ivanov “about political emigrants conducting anti-Russian activities” (Tgstat.ru, November 2). In it, the pro-Kremlin analyst laments that a “fifth column,” although having left the country, “continues to actively conduct anti-Russian activities from abroad.”
