Nov 2 Buonsera Mag
Day 252: UA graine, Wagner, Zaporizhzhia, Bakhmut, Iran, NK, demining, inside Kremlin, Spain, UK, Tatars, Moldova-A&Ps-GlasnostGone, Zelensky, Schmitt, Klain, Vito, Scott Kelly, Palombo, Norris, Troy
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Ukrainian forces just hit the Antonovsky bridge area with pinpoint strikes.
Retired Russian lieutenant colonel Vyacheslav Zangiev who was operating as a Wagner commander in Ukraine was shot down and killed recently in his Mi-8 helicopter.
UK intelligence: Wagner Group advancing up to 200 meters daily, missing Russia's 30-kilometer goal. Meanwhile, Russia's military doctrine determines Russian forces plan to advance 30 kilometers or more daily. "In February, Russian forces planned to make a 1,000-kikometer advance through Ukraine within a month. In September, Ukrainian forces achieved advances of over 20 kilometers per day," the report reads.
Intelligence: Russian troops install military equipment on Zaporizhzhia power plant’s rooftop. According to the Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate, Russia set up the equipment on the rooftop of the fifth power unit to combat aerial reconnaissance.
ISW: Russia begins its semi-annual fall conscription drive amidst reports of continuing covert mobilization. Defense Minister Shoigu said that 2,700 draft committees across the country began the fall conscription call-up of 120,000 men.
Podolyak: Iran must be recognized as ‘accomplice of aggression in Europe.’ “Transferring missiles to Russia, Iran knows that it will attack our cities. Teaching Russians to use drones, it knows that they will attack the Ukrainian energy sector, provoking waves of refugees to the EU,” wrote Mykhailo Podolyak.
The US has information that indicates North Korea is secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells, according to White House spokesperson John Kirby. “Our indications are that the DPRK is covertly supplying and we are going to monitor to see whether the shipments are received,” Kirby said, according to Reuters. “It is not an insignificant number of shells, but we don’t believe they are in such a quantity that the would change the momentum of the war,” he said.
Zelensky: Up to 40% of Ukraine’s energy system destroyed by Russian attacks. During a meeting with the European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson, on Nov. 1, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had to stop exporting electricity to European countries “due to Russian missile and drone attacks which destroyed 30-40% of its energy system.”
US launches demining training project in Ukraine. The U.S. State Department announced on Nov. 1 that they have launched a demining training project with Tetra Tech Inc., an American consulting and engineering services firm.
As reported by the NYT, Russian generals have had high-level discussions about using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, U.S. intelligence shows. The conversations alarmed the Biden administration because they showed how frustrated Moscow had become over its battlefield setbacks in Ukraine.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group military organisation is jockeying to increase his power inside the Kremlin, US and European officials. “It’s a real-life ‘House of Cards,’ but in the Kremlin,” said one source familiar with US intelligence. “All stabbing each other in the back.” Prigozhin confronted Putin head on over the war in Ukraine and how it is being mismanaged by Russia’s military leadership, US officials tell CNN.
While it’s unclear how Putin reacted to the confrontation, US intelligence officials believe it is further evidence that Prigozhin, who is not part of the Russian government, is trying to assert his influence at a time when the US is closely watching the power structures inside the Kremlin.
Kremlin says it will rejoin UN grain deal in humiliating U-turn. “The Russian Federation considers that the guarantees received at the moment appear sufficient, and resumes the implementation of the agreement,” the ministry statement said.
Spain’s FM, José Manuel Albares, has been in Kyiv today, where he met with his Ukrainian FM, Dmytro Kuleba. Albares said in a tweet upon his arrival: “Just arrived in Kyiv to convey Spain’s commitment and support to the people and government of Ukraine in defence of its sovereignty, peace and freedom; and support and thank the members of the embassy of Spain in Ukraine for their work.”
UK sanctions four more Russian oligarchs. Alexander Abramov and Alexander Frolov, two business associates of Roman Abramovich linked to Russian Evraz, have had their UK assets frozen for their role in Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Abramov is thought to have a global net worth of £4.1bn and Frolov £1.7bn. The other two are Airat Shaimiev and Albert Shigabutdinov. Shaimiev is the CEO of OAO Tatatodor, a state-owned transport and constructions company, which is involved in the building and maintenance of roads in Russia. Shigabutdinov is the general director and CEO of the AO Taif group of companies, which operate in energy, financial services and information communication sectors.
WSJ: Russia circumvents oil sanctions by using an Italian Lukoil refinery in Sicily, and a sanctions loophole. How kind of us. Oil ends up in Texas and New Jersey.
Russia's Wagner group facing UK court action over Ukraine 'terrorism.' British law firm McCue Jury and Partners announced on Nov. 1 that they took the first step towards what they said was "groundbreaking" legal action against Russia's mercenary Wagner group over allegations it has committed "terrorism" in Ukraine.
EU condemns Russia's mobilization of Crimean Tatars, calls it 'violation of international law.' The conscription campaign that Russia has launched in Crimea is "groundlessly targeting" its residents, the European External Action Service wrote on Nov. 1.
US Secretary of State Blinken will travel to Munster, Germany on November 3-4 for the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and the U.S.-German Futures Forum.
Dep Sec of State Sherman met yesterday with Austrian Sec Gen for Foreign Affairs Peter Launsky-Tieffenthal in Washington, DC. They discussed the need for continuing support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s illegal war of aggression and the current situation in the Western Balkans.
On October 31, a majority of members of the UN Security Council have condemned Belarus for issuing a bomb threat "under a false pretext" to justify the diversion of a commercial passenger flight to Minsk to arrest dissident Belarusian journalist Raman Pratasevich and his Russian girlfriend.
The Minsk City Court has sentenced journalist Ales Lyubyanchuk to three years in prison amid a crackdown on independent media and civil society in Belarus under authoritarian ruler Lukashenka. The Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAZh) said on October 27 that Judge Alena Ananich sentenced the journalist after finding him guilty of creating an extremist group and taking part in its activities.
Spanish minister arrives in Kyiv, donates 30 ambulances to Ukraine. Spain's Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares arrived in Kyiv on Nov. 2 to deliver 30 ambulances to Ukraine, the ministry's press office told CNN.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu has welcomed a move by the United States to impose sanctions on several Moldovans and Russians over "systemic corruption" and their efforts to influence elections in Moldova.
Two days after losing Brazil’s election, President Jair Bolsonaro agreed to a transition of power without directly conceding. In a brief public address, Mr. Bolsonaro did not acknowledge his defeat. After Mr. Bolsonaro spoke, his chief of staff said the leader authorized the transition of power to move forward.
Missed this yesterday: “On November 1, 1993 the European Union was founded in Maastrict, which has contributed to assuring us liberty and prosperity. Thank you and best wishes EU. “
European Commission lays out options for financing Ukraine- Politico
The European Commission has laid out three ways EU countries can support Ukraine financially amid the war with Russia ahead of a meeting of finance officials on Thursday.
The Commission wants to raise up to €18 billion in loans and grants to help fund around half of Ukraine's expected budget shortfall in 2023, equal to $38-$40 billion. Disbursements would be made each quarter starting in January "if feasible," according to the draft.
Marge Simpson Mural Supporting Women Reappears Near Iranian Consulate In Milan- RFE/RL
A mural of cartoon character Marge Simpson cutting her hair in solidarity with Iranian women has reappeared on a wall in front of Tehran's consulate general in Milan less than a month after it was removed by "unknown agents."
Italian artist aleXsandro Palombo told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that the new work is called "The Cut 2" and was designed and painted after "The Cut 1" was removed from the wall in front of the consulate general less than 24 hours after it went up.
While both murals show Marge cutting her trademark blue beehive hairdo, she is noticeably angrier in the second, showing her middle finger while scowling.
Russia recruiting Afghan special forces who fought with US to fight in Ukraine- The Guardian
Afghan special forces soldiers who fought alongside American troops and then fled to Iran after the chaotic US withdrawal last year are now being recruited by the Russian military to fight in Ukraine, three former Afghan generals have told the Associated Press.
They said the Russians want to attract thousands of the former elite Afghan commandos into a “foreign legion” with offers of steady, $1,500-a-month payments and promises of safe havens for themselves and their families so they can avoid deportation home to what many assume would be death at the hands of the Taliban.
Pippa Norris | A Powerful Theory of Why the Far Right Is Thriving Across the Globe- NYT
‘The Ezra Klein Show’- The political scientist Pippa Norris explains how a ‘silent revolution in values’ is fueling the global rise of the right.
We discuss what Norris calls the “silent revolution in cultural values” that has occurred across advanced democracies in recent decades, why the best predictor of support for populist parties is the generation people were born into, why the “transgressive aesthetic” of leaders like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro is so central to their appeal, how demographic and cultural “tipping points” have produced conservative backlashes across the globe, the difference between “demand-side” and “supply-side” theories of populist uprising, the role that economic anxiety and insecurity play in fueling right-wing backlashes, why delivering economic benefits might not be enough for mainstream leaders to stave off populist challenges and more.
Programming note…
Kyiv Independent: Join us on Nov. 3 for a Q&A with Editor-in-Chief Olga Rudenko and CEO Daryna Shevchenko on “What the West gets wrong about Ukraine.” They’ll talk about misconceptions the West still has about Ukraine and Russia’s war.
This is an exclusive event for our Patreon community. Register and submit your questions here. Become our Patreon member here.