Nov 2 : E-Stories
Day616 100TownsHit Clooney Klishchiivka Andriivka Robotyne BlackSea Taganrog RUeco WagnerRecruits Allies NYC BUL Israel Kazak NK Meloni Butler A&P KI UKDef Avdeeva Vogel Lautman Times Aslund ISW China
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia has shelled more than 100 towns and villages within the last 24 hours, more than in any single day so far this year, Ukraine said on Wednesday.
Moscow has fired millions of shells on cities, towns and villages since it launched its full-scale invasion last February, reducing several to rubble across the eastern part of the country, according to Agence France-Presse.
“Over the last 24 hours, the enemy shelled 118 settlements in 10 regions,” Ukraine’s interior minister, Igor Klymenko, said on social media.
“This is the highest number of cities and villages that have come under attack since the start of the year,” he added.
Russia hits energy facility in front-line Ukrainian region causing blackouts. The attack significantly damaged the facility's equipment, causing electricity and water supply cut-offs in a nearby settlement, Ukraine's largest private energy company DTEK reported on Oct. 31.
Governor: Russian strikes against Kherson kill 1, injure 2. Russian troops struck the Dniprovskyi district of Kherson on Oct. 31, causing a fire in a civilian car and killing its owner, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported. Later the same day, Russia launched a missile attack against Kherson, wounding two employees of a transport facility, according to Prokudin.
Military: Russian planes dropping explosives on Black Sea shipping corridor. Russian warplanes have dropped "explosive objects" along the likely route of civilian vessels in the Black Sea three times in the past 24 hours, Ukraine's Southern Operational Command said on Nov. 1.
A Russian drone attack hit and set ablaze the Kremenchuk oil refinery in central Ukraine and falling debris from drones that were shot down damaged railway power lines in a nearby region. Meanwhile, the US Defense Secretary said that Russia would succeed unless the US kept up its support for Kyiv.
Ukraine exported 3m metric tonnes of food in October from its Black Sea ports and ports of the Danube River, according to Spike Brokers, which regularly tracks and publishes export statistics in Ukraine. Ukraine is trying to build up a new shipping lane along the north-western coast of the Black Sea to Romanian territorial waters to revive its vital seaborne exports.
Combat Situation Update
Oct 31: Russian channel WarGonzo in his early report claims that Ukrainian forces are trying to breaktrough to Poima and Pishchanivka, while Russian troops are trying to oust Ukrainians from Krynky. The fact that Ukrainians maintain a foothold in Krynky seems confirmed.
General Staff: Russia fails to regain lost ground at Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Robotyne. Russian forces tried unsuccessfully to regain lost ground at Klishchiivka and Andriivka south of Bakhmut and near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said in its morning report on Nov. 1.
According to local residents, four Ukrainian armed forces shells hit a train carrying fuel at the Mushketovo railway station in the Budyonnovskyi district of Donetsk. No casualties were reported.
While Russia is focussing most of its units and equipment east of Krasnohorivka, Ukrainian forces have been geolocated north of Krasnohorivka, moving south along the H20 highway. If Ukraine manages to advance further, RU troops are facing a threat of being cut off.
Russian channels report that Ukraine launched a missile attack on a command post of the Dnepr group of the Russian Armed Forces, active in the occupied Kherson region. At least one death and several injuries are known.
After the attack on Berdyansk airport, Russian helicopters started to appear in Taganrog air base in Russia. This air base is within striking distance for ATACMS, but unlikely a target now since the US doesn't allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia.
Looks like the Ukraine forces have targeted the Crimea Bridge. The Russian forces have created a smokescreen around the area. Sooner or later it will be hit again.
Border Guards: Russia appears to have withdrawn troops from Belarus. There are still some members of the Russian Armed Forces remaining in Belarus, but these are predominantly military personnel who service Russian equipment left in the country, said Andriy Demchenko, the spokesperson of Ukraine's State Border Guard Service.
On the International Day of the Black Sea, Zelenskyy met with Ukrainian defenders, who changed the situation in the Black Sea for the benefit of Ukraine and the world, and presented them with state awards.
"The battle for the Black Sea is still ongoing, but we can already be sure that Russia will not win this battle. The Ukrainians did not allow the enemy to use the Black Sea as a springboard for landings and attacks against our southern regions. I am convinced that the Black Sea will become an example of how our state knows how to restore security - for itself and its partners. Thank you, warriors! We remember all those who gave their lives, cleaning our sea from the invaders," Zelenskyy emphasized.
Ukraine’s commander-in-chief said on Wednesday the war with Russia was moving to a new stage of positional warfare involving static and attritional fighting, a phase he warned could benefit Moscow and allow it to rebuild its military power. In an article for The Economist, top general Valerii Zaluzhnyi said the Ukrainian army needed key new military capabilities and technology, including air power, to break out of that kind of war.
Behind the Lines
Explosion reported at Russian explosives factory. An explosion occurred at one of Russia's largest military plants in the Perm Krai, Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti reported on Oct. 31, citing emergency services. The Ural factory, located in the town of Solikamsk, produces explosives for ammunition and small arms, among other things.
UNESCO mission visits Chernihiv to assess damage from Russian attacks. Representatives from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) are in Chernihiv on an official mission to assess the damage to the city's cultural heritage from Russian attacks. The damaged sites include the 12th-century Piatnytska Church, St. Anthony's Caves, and the Chernihiv Regional Academic Music and Drama Theater.
3 Russian nationals arrested in New York on suspicion of supplying Russian military. One Russian-Tajik national and two Russian-Canadians have been arrested in New York on suspicion of directing a "massive sanctions evasion and export control scheme," the U.S. Attorney's Office reported on Oct. 31.
Media: Russian search trends show increased in supporting military. Search requests in Russia for "assisting (the war)" on Russia's search engine giant Yandex were seven times higher in October 2023 than last year, Ukrinform reported on Nov. 1, citing the Brand Ukraine organization. Although not all of the increase in searches concerned direct support, there was a notable rise in requests about how to help Russian soldiers, including how to buy drones and other materials for the war effort.
Meanwhile in Russia
Media: North Korea sent over 1 million artillery shells to Russia. South Korean intelligence believes that North Korea has sent over a million artillery shells to Russia to boost its war against Ukraine, the Associated Press reported on Nov. 1, citing a South Korean lawmaker who attended a closed-door briefing with intelligence officials.
Most Russians would not support ending invasion if it meant returning occupied territories to Ukraine. According to the survey, only 34% of Russians would support President Vladimir Putin if he decided to end the invasion and return occupied territories to Ukraine. However, 70% of respondents said they would support Putin’s decision to end the invasion of Ukraine without returning territories.
The Wagner group has allegedly resumed recruiting in Perm and Novosibirsk as a unit of Rosgvardia, Russia’s National Guard, local news sites have reported, according to the Kyiv Independent. Head of the new division allegedly is Prigozhin's son, Pavel. "The only difference is that we only accept civilians who are not in detention," a representative said.
Reuters: North Korea is poised to close as many as a dozen embassies including in Spain, Hong Kong, and multiple countries in Africa. It sets the stage for what could be "one of the country’s biggest foreign policy shakeups in decades," wrote Chad O'Carroll, founder of the North Korea-focused website NK Pro.
The Central Bank predicted three years of “belt tightening” for Russians.
In the coming years, Russian consumers will again have to “tighten their belts” and reduce purchases of goods and services against the backdrop of accelerating inflation, a slowing economy and a reduction in the supply of imported goods, warns the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
According to the updated medium-term forecast of the Central Bank, in 2024, household expenditures on final consumption will decrease by 1-2%, and in a pessimistic scenario they will not exceed the levels of the current year even in 2026.In 2023, according to the Central Bank, Russians will increase purchases of goods and services by 5.5-6.5%, which will fully compensate for the failure of the first year of the war, when consumption volumes shrank by 1.4%. However, next year citizens will have to return to saving mode as the economy slows down (the Central Bank predicts its growth by only 0.5-1.5%), and loans become more expensive.
Allied Support
President Zelenskyy’s evening address on unity:
We value our Europe, a Europe of interaction, not of disputes, a Europe of people, not of ideologies, because only in this way is our continent able to protect and defend human lives both in the countries of Europe and in the world. I am sure that Ukraine will make our Europe stronger than ever, and we are working as hard as possible so that there is no obstacle left for our entry into the European Union. And I am also sure that no matter how events develop in the world, in our other partners and in America, and anywhere else, unity will still win. Unity, not division. Unity, not calls for self-isolation.
Thank you all for helping Ukraine, for joint actions in protecting our European values. And I also thank all those in the world who help to preserve unity: everyone, from Washington to every capital of the world, in which people and life are valued.
The EU is discussing new restrictions that will hit trade with Russia by about $5.3 billion. The new package will strengthen restrictions on Moscow's sources of income and industry and limit the Kremlin's ability to feed its military machine.
.PM Shmyhal: EU to send $354 million in aid for reconstruction and reforms. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal added that after both parties sign the "recovery and reforms" support program, the funds will be allocated to "the reconstruction of infrastructure, in particular the energy sector."
Biden cabinet secretaries make case for Ukraine aid in Senate. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that aid to Ukraine and Israel must be approved immediately during their Senate testimonies on Oct. 31. The $105 billion funding bill that includes aid for both countries has been held up for weeks by infighting in the Republican-led House of Representatives.
Bloomberg: EU's 12th sanctions package on Russia could target $5.3 billion in trade. The European Union is discussing the adoption of a 12th round of sanctions against Russia, which would target $5.3 billion in trade, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 31.
A Dutch court has sentenced a Russian citizen, Dmitri K, to 18 months in prison in absentia and fined his company €200,000 (£174,000) for breaching trade sanctions against Russia that the EU imposed over the war in Ukraine, Reuters reports.
In its ruling, the court said the man had been trading in microchips and other electronic goods for six years and had been fully aware of the sanctions against Russia.
The man was in charge of a company that channelled “dual use” goods – which can serve both civilian and military purposes – via foreign countries to firms in Russia to bypass EU restrictions, it said.
To do so, the man allegedly forged invoices and statements about the end user of the products to make it look as if they were shipped to the Maldives and in some cases even to a nonexistent company in Ukraine, the district court in Rotterdam said.
The Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, told a caller posing as an African leader revealed information about the inner thoughts of many in the EU about Ukraine, migration and other topics. The callers was a Russian famous for these kinds of calls, and the event has raised questions as to Italian security and the integrity of the Italian intelligence services.
Jacopo Iacoboni: Francesco Talò is Meloni’s diplomatic advisor. He’s a staunch Atlanticist and now risks his position after the Russian operation.
Official statement from the Office of the President: "President Meloni was misled on the phone by a person who managed to pass himself off as president of the African Union through the diplomatic office of Palazzo Chigi"
Reuters: Turkey will not speed up Sweden NATO accession. Turkey's parliamentary foreign affairs committee will keep Sweden's NATO bid on its regular agenda as the country does not consider the matter as urgent as other countries, Turkish foreign affairs committee chair Fuat Oktay said on Nov. 1, Reuters reported. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg earlier called for a "speedy vote" by Turkey's parliament, saying that the process was "going well."
Macron visits Kazakhstan in first leg of Central Asia trip. President Emmanuel Macron arrived in the Kazakh capital Astana on Nov. 1 on the first leg of a trip to Central Asia that will also see him visit neighboring Uzbekistan. Macron met with Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and took part in the France-Kazakhstan business forum.
Around the World
Reuters: A first group of injured evacuees from Gaza crossed into Egypt via the Rafah border crossing, Egyptian local media and a source at the border said. Under the deal reached between Egypt, Israel and Hamas, a number of foreigners and critically wounded people will be allowed to leave the besieged territory.
Israel said its fighter jets killed a Hamas commander in a strike on a densely populated refugee camp in Gaza, an attack that also killed at least 50 Palestinians as fighting intensified in the enclave where food, fuel and supplies are running scarce.
Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has discussed the Israel-Hamas conflict with envoys of Arab countries in Moscow, Russia’s Tass news agency reported on Wednesday.
The US and Israel are considering the possibility of future peacekeeping forces into the Gaza Strip, which may include US, UK and French troops. A second option would establish a peacekeeping force modeled on one that oversees a 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty, while a third would see Gaza put under temporary UN oversight.
The United Nations human rights office said on Wednesday that Israel’s airstrike on Gaza’s Jabalia refugee camp could amount to war crimes, Reuters reported.
“Given the high number of civilian casualties & the scale of destruction following Israeli airstrikes on Jabalia refugee camp, we have serious concerns that these are disproportionate attacks that could amount to war crimes,” the office said in a post.
UK, US, EU and China sign declaration of AI’s ‘catastrophic’ danger.
The UK, US, EU and China have all agreed that artificial intelligence poses a potentially catastrophic risk to humanity, in the first international declaration to deal with the fast-emerging technology.
Twenty-eight governments signed up to the so-called Bletchley declaration on the first day of the AI safety summit, hosted by the British government. The countries agreed to work together on AI safety research, even amid signs that the US and UK are competing to take the lead over developing new regulations.
China's new "economic tsar" He Lifeng is emerging as one of Xi Jinping's most powerful lieutenants, but some sources say he is yet to gain the standing of his predecessor in financial markets and the diplomat community. The 68-year-old replaced internationally respected Liu He as one of China's four vice premiers in March.
Britain is hosting the world's first global artificial intelligence safety summit this week to examine the risks of the fast-growing technology and kickstart an international dialogue on regulation of it.
The Progressive Left?
The ‘progressive’ left: Meet Judith Butler, a philosopher. At a meeting in the U.S., she states that both Hamas and Hezbollah are ‘progressive social’ movements.
Hamas is a terrorist group, not an authority, and we know that they, and other Iranian-backed radical Islamists have been carrying out attacks in over 30 countries since the early 1980s. They are allied with the Houthis in Yemen, and extremist militants in Syria. These radical Islamic groups were nurtured by Soviet Russia starting in the 1950s, and the Soviet regime had provided arms, training and funding for these groups to defeat the ‘imperialist’ U.S. I would love to know what these terrorist groups have in common with ‘progressives’.
Butler is not alone. Her position mirrors that of many Italian expressions of the extreme right and left, that have advocated for the dissolution of NATO, and the U.N—in short, our entire rules-based order with the U.S. on the top of the list.
Yesterday, a vigil was held for Armita Geravand in Rome. She was killed by the Morality Police in Iran for not wearing a head scarf. These regimes use terror and murder of young women to show others what may happen to them if they ‘transgress’. It is a form of control. Stay within the rules and we will allow you to live. Not one Italian member of parliament from the Democratic Party or 5 Star Movement came to the vigil.
Programming…
China’s Military Diplomacy and its Quest for Bases Abroad
General Marshall Fund: China Global Podcast—by Bonnie S. Glaser, Kristen Gunnes
The US Defense Department has just released its annual China Military Power Report, and that says that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) probably has also considered adding military logistics facilities in 19 countries around the world (in addition to Djibouti): Cambodia, Burma, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, Nigeria, Namibia, Mozambique, Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Tajikistan. To expand its global footprint, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will need to cultivate good relations with potential host countries. China’s military diplomacy is likely aimed at achieving that objective among others.
Today’s discussion focuses on the key features and goals of China’s military diplomacy and its quest for additional military installations – or what the Chinese call “strategic strongpoints.”
