Nov 27: E-Stories
Day 641 Mariupol Kherson 1BlnGrain Dnipro Avdiivka Moscow TruckersPOL Odesa RUinflation LT BEL UKTech Influencers RUGas A&P UKDef ISW Rosenberg Gic OCCRP Panyi IWPRoseberry Shagina BBCAdler YLE
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Me: I finally got to see “20 Day in Mariupol” last week. Please watch it. The video below is an interview with the reporter, Mstyslav Chernov, who brought the information out of Mariupol under seige.
Stories we’re following…
Air Force warns of continuing air strikes, drone activity in multiple oblasts. President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed out that the strikes coincided with the Holodomor Memorial Day, a commemoration of a man-made artificial famine from the years 1932-33 aimed against the Ukrainian people.
Shmyhal: Russia sold $1 billion of Ukrainian grain on world markets. Russia has stolen and exported $1 billion worth of Ukrainian grain on world commodities markets, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Nov. 24 at a grain market forum in Kyiv. "The occupiers have prepared technical means to steal and take away 12,000 tons of grain from the captured territories every day."
Artillery strikes in Kherson on Sunday at lunch. Power, water off in many districts. Extreme weather conditions.
Polish truckers to start round-the-clock blockade of border crossing on Nov 27. Polish truckers started blocking three border crossing points on Nov. 6 in protest of the liberalization of EU transport rules for Ukrainian trucks, causing huge lines on both sides of the border.
Combat Situation Update
Ukrainian forces defend positions on left bank of Dnipro river. Kyiv says the country’s armed forces are inflicting serious damage on Russian troops in the region and that Moscow has suffered “colossal losses.”
ISW: Russian forces advancing in Avdiivka. Russian troops continued operations near Avdiivka on Nov. 25 and have made confirmed advances, ISW reported. Geolocated videos posted on Nov. 24 indicate that Russian forces advanced north of Krasnohorivka, a settlement 7km northwest of Avdiivka.
The spokesman for Ukraine’s Ground Forces, Volodymyr Fitio, has told the United News telethon that Russian soldiers “seek to reoccupy” the town of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region.
Russia has brought down at least 24 drones over the Moscow region and three other provinces to the south and west, the Russian Defense Ministry and Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin has reported in a series of Telegram updates. One person was injured in Tula when an intercepted drone hit an apartment building, the region’s governor Alexei Dyumin said
Military: Russia 'dramatically' increasing assaults, airstrikes on southern front. In the southern front where the Tavria Group operates, Russian forces have carried out 29 airstrikes and almost 1,000 artillery barrages since Nov. 21.
Behind the Lines
The flow of traffic at Ukraine’s largest cargo crossing continues to be slowed by Polish truckers protesting the liberalisation of EU transport rules for Ukrainian trucks. According to an update by Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry reported by the Kyiv Independent, as of today round 2,100 vehicles are unable to get into Ukraine.
Fire at the Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant in Russia. It is the main producer of diesel engines for Russian armoured vehicles. Tanks T-72, T-90, T-14, Tank Support Combat Vehicles Terminator and various self-propelled artillery installations were equipped there.
Latvia offers to help negotiate end to Polish border blockade. Latvia offered to "provide assistance in seeking solutions" to unblock the Polish border with Ukraine, during a Nov. 25 phone call between Latvia's Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins and Poland's EU Affairs Secretary Szymon Szynkowski.
Snowstorm causes power outages in 10 regions across Ukraine. Emergency services in Odesa Oblast conducted 62 missions, as 145 cars, six buses and five ambulances were dug out from the snow. Also, traffic along the M15 highway is currently prohibited, according to the report. Blackouts in 131 towns, villages of Odesa Oblast. according to the regional branch of the private energy company DTEK.
Some EU members seek to weaken Russia sanctions enforcement plan. Some EU countries seek to weaken the bloc's plans aimed against Russia's ability to acquire restricted dual-use goods via third-party countries, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 25, citing undisclosed sources.
Ukraine's parliament supports draft law making English official language of international communication. The Verkhovna Rada supported the draft law on the status of the English language in Ukraine in its first reading, MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak reported on Telegram on Nov. 22. If passed, the law would establish English as an official language of international communication in Ukraine.
Study: Over 2,400 children have been deported from Ukraine to Belarus. At least 2,442 children from Ukraine between the ages of six and 17 have been transported to 13 facilities in Belarus following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to researchers from Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab (HRL).
Meanwhile in Russia
Two international airports in Moscow closed after drones target capital. The Domodedovo and Vnukovo international airports in Moscow oblast suspended operations after drones approached the Russian capital early on Nov. 26.
Russian official to line his account. The Federal Agency for Subsoil Use issued an order to regional subdivisions of the Federal Agency for Subsoil Use to "intensify work among subsoil users, civil servants and employees of Rosnedra to raise funds" for the war. The money is to be transferred to Igor Koryakin’s personal card, the executive director of the Association of Geological Organizations.
In October 2023, the average price for shoes in Russia increased by 25%, and for clothing by 21% compared to the same period the previous year. This was reported by Izvestia with reference to data from analysts of the MoySklad service, Compared to October 2021, shoes on average became one and a half times more expensive. Clothing prices also showed notable gains, rising 41% in two years.
Beef in Russia will rise in price by at least 7-10%. This is due to the traditional pre-holiday rush, rising costs and systemic problems, Roman Kostyuk, general director of the National Union of Beef Producers, told Parliamentary Newspaper. Among the reasons, Kostyuk named the “rapid extinction” of small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the fact that animals are raised in the country mainly for the production of dairy products.
Steve Rosenberg for the BBC: To understand where Russia is heading right now, look at who’s being put in prison..and who’s being released. My despatch from the trial of Sasha Skochilenko for 'From Our Own Correspondent'.
In the first 9 months of this year, more than 68,000 Russian citizens received residence permits or citizenship of other countries. As the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs told TASS, this figure has doubled compared to the same period of the previous year. A representative of the press center of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that the most popular countries for obtaining citizenship were Israel, Turkey, as well as 10 other states.
Russians who left Russia after the start of the war in Ukraine may not expect to be welcomed back home “with open arms.” State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin stated this in his Telegram channel , noting that “relocants” are returning because they often could not find work abroad.
Russian ministry proposes five-million-camera unified surveillance system. Russia’s Digital Development Ministry has proposed the creation of a “platform for processing and storing data from surveillance cameras” in Russian cities. According to Kommersant, the idea was laid out in a presentation by Maksut Shadaev, the head of the ministry.
Russian media: Russians consider Cyprus, Hungary top locations for foreign investment. Russians who plan to buy property abroad are most interested in investing in Cyprus and Hungary, Russian media outlet RBC reported on Nov. 22, citing research from real estate agency NF Group.
Jacopo Iacoboni- Russian bots impersonate VIPs: “Enough weapons and money for Ukraine”, “it's useless now, the West is more interested in Israel”: this is how a network of Russian bots spreads fake phrases by Beyoncé, Oprah, Ronaldo. Behind, the Russian services.
Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.5% in the third quarter compared to the same period last year, when it shrunk 3.5%, the state statistics service Rosstat estimated on Wednesday.
Russia’s economy is on course to recover this year from a 2.1% drop in GDP in 2022, as the west imposed sweeping sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. In the first quarter of this year, GDP decreased 1.8% and grew 4.9% in the second, Reuters reports.
Allied Support
Ukrainian Report on Western Tech in Russian weapons: Many of the countries that have sanctioned Russia over the war in Ukraine need to take urgent action to disrupt the supply of technology for its electronic warfare campaign, according to a new report.
It identified what it claims is technology made by British firms in some of the advanced electronic equipment engaged in the conflict, and says more effective action is required to block the use of foreign components.
The report states: “The effectiveness of Russian electronic systems largely depends on access to imported components that are widely used in the production of such systems ... Specific steps should be taken immediately to reduce the Russian military-industrial complex’s capability.”
Lithuania pledges 2 million euros for grain initiative. Lithuanian funding will contribute to the extension of the initiative, which has already accumulated over $100 million in support, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Latvian president: EU should prioritize ammunition procurement for Ukraine over other countries. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics said that the EU should hold off selling ammunition to third countries, prioritizing procurement for Ukraine.
Switzerland to make significant donation to Grain from Ukraine initiative. Switzerland president Alain Berset confirmed the news while at attending the international food security summit in Kyiv.
After Thanksgiving, the US House and Senate will return to the issue of additional funding for Ukraine and Israel. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he would support a package vote on funding for Ukraine along with border protection, while insisting on separate funding for Israel.
Five EU countries will get visa-free travel to China, while Russia will not Citizens of Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, France and Germany will be able to visit China without a visa. Visa-free travel is also introduced for Malaysia. At the same time, China has not provided such bonuses for Russia. Huge discounts on gas and oaths of eternal friendship between peoples did not help either.
PM Trudeau: "The real story is the rise of a right-wing, American MAGA-influenced thinking that has made Canadian Conservatives — who used to be among the strongest defenders of Ukraine, I'll admit it — turn their backs on something UA needs in its hour of need,"
All Canadians should be concerned when the Conservative Party of Canada & Poilievre turn their backs on history, turn their backs on our friends & allies, turn their backs on the intl rules-based order & our support for the UN charter on territorial integrity,"
Ariana Gic: “Ukrainian Canadians who support this Conservative Party need to ask themselves whether they care about Ukraine, and what sort of a country they want to live in here. Slavish support for a party is not healthy for anyone.”
Katya Adler for the BBC: Geert Wilders' victory in Netherlands election spooks Europe
The unexpectedly meaty win for controversial, hard-right politician Geert Wilders in Wednesday's general election in the Netherlands set international headlines on fire.
And what does all this mean for Europe?
Geert Wilders may be the leader of the Netherlands' largest parliamentary party, but he does not have nearly enough seats to form a government alone. Weeks of political horse-trading lie ahead.
Mr Wilders has admitted he will need to compromise on some of his policies to find political bed-fellows. And at this moment in time, it is not certain that Geert Wilders will be his country's next prime minister.
If he is, EU leaders' summits could become tenser and more fractious - for a number of reasons.
Mr Wilders has campaigned hard to take the Netherlands out of the EU. While he openly admits the idea is not popular amongst most Dutch voters, he may well push for a "Nexit" (the Netherlands' exit from the EU) referendum anyway.
The European Commission said on Thursday that it was not worried. It was "counting" on the Netherlands (a founding member of the EU) to continue to "strongly participate" in the bloc's affairs, said spokesperson Eric Mamer.
But Brussels is - and should be - concerned about EU unity to support Ukraine as the months grind on since Russia's full-scale invasion.
That support is costly.
Like the leaders of EU members Hungary and Slovakia, Mr Wilders is against sending more military aid to Kyiv.
Geert Wilders says he wants to put the Netherlands first; to "give the Netherlands back to the Dutch". A similar refrain to Donald Trump's Make America Great Again or Italian PM Giorgia Meloni's cry of "Italy and the Italians first!"
He would join a chorus of voices at the leaders table, including Ms Meloni, taking a hard line on EU migration and asylum policies. Mr Wilders talks of a "migration tsunami".
But it would be too simplistic, I believe, to conclude Geert Wilders' election success shows far-right, hard-right, nostalgic nationalist, populist parties - there are so many labels, and this is not a one-size-fits-all debate - are "taking over Europe", as some commentators suggest.
Poland's Law and Justice Party just lost a general election. Spain's Vox Party failed to perform nearly as well as predicted in Spain's summer election. In the Netherlands, a joint ticket between Labour and the Greens performed well.
But migration, migration, migration, plus cost of living - pretty much wherever you look across Europe - are top priorities for voters.
In France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally party performed powerfully in parliamentary elections. Germany's far-right AfD is consistently in second and sometimes in first place in opinion polls. Austria's Freedom Party is buoyant once more too.
These parties are making their anti-immigration stance heard loud and clear. Even if they do not make it into government, they create political pressure and are pushing those seen as more mainstream parties (like Germany's Social Democrats in government, or Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance Party) further to the right on immigration and security issues.
This is a pattern you see across Europe.
Programming notes…
Let’s start thinking ahead: IWP presents Robert Roseberry and what the world post-Putin would like.
Mr. Robert T. Roseberry holds a Bachelor of Science in Strategic Intelligence and a Bachelor of Science in Criminal Psychology, as well as a Master of Strategic Intelligence Studies from IWP. He has studied Eastern European history and its political workings since he was a teenager. As a native Ukrainian, he has followed the developments of the war between Ukraine and Russia and has formulated who might be the next successor after Vladimir Putin and the Russian power structure.