Nov 27 The Sunday Edition
Day 277: UAEnergyGrid ZNPP UAgrain RUsoldiers US-Poland LublinTriangle Belgium FaroeIslands Makei HUN-Iran FreedomConvoy- A&Ps-Mariupol KyivIndie VDL Feng Wu Schindler Bilak Higgins
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
President’s Office: Electricity restored in liberated Kherson. President Volodymyr Zelensky's Deputy Chief of Staff Kyrylo Tymoshenko said on Nov. 26 that the power will be supplied to the city's critical infrastructure first and then to the residents' houses.
Associated Press: Fleeing shelling, civilians on Saturday streamed out of the southern Ukrainian city whose recapture they had celebrated just weeks earlier. The exodus from Kherson came as Ukraine solemnly remembered a Stalin-era famine and sought to ensure that Russia’s war in Ukraine doesn’t deprive others worldwide of its vital food exports.
Today, Kyiv may go to the scheduled electricity shutdown schedules, Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said on the air of the telethon. "Almost all the houses in Kyiv have heat supply, in the near future this number will be complete. “Currently, 25% of Kyiv residents are without electricity. I hope that tomorrow we will be able to go to the scheduled disconnection schedules. There is water in the whole city. The situation is already much better," — Klitschko said.
With persistent snowfall blanketing the capital, Kyiv on Sunday, analysts predicted that wintry weather — bringing with it frozen terrain and gruelling fighting conditions — could have an increasing impact on the direction of the conflict that has raged since Russian forces invaded Ukraine more than nine months ago.
But for the moment, both sides were bogged down by heavy rain and muddy battlefield conditions in some areas, experts said.
After a blistering barrage of Russian artillery strikes on at least two occasions over the past two weeks, infrastructure teams in Ukraine were fanning out in around-the-clock deployments to restore key basic services as many Ukrainians dealt with only a few hours of electricity per day — if any.
Ukrenergo, the state power grid operator, said on Sunday that electricity producers are now supplying about 80% of demand. That’s an improvement from Saturday’s 75%, the company says.
In the eastern Donetsk region, five people were killed in shelling over the past day, according to governor Pavlo Kyrylenko. Overnight shelling was reported by regional leaders in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk areas to the west.
Kharkiv governor Oleh Syniehubov said one person was killed and three wounded in the northeastern region.
The head of Ukraine’s state-run nuclear energy firm said on Sunday there were signs that Russian forces might be preparing to leave the vast Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant which they seized in March soon after their invasion, Reuters reports. “Firstly, there are a very large number of reports in Russian media that it would be worth vacating the (plant) and maybe worth handing control (of it) to the (International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA),” he said, referring to the United Nations nuclear watchdog. “One gets the impression they’re packing their bags and stealing everything they can.”
President Zelensky said Kyiv had raised around $150 million from more than 20 countries and the European Union to export grain to countries including Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Yemen. “We plan to send at least 60 vessels from Ukrainian ports to countries that most face the threat of famine and drought,” Zelenskiy told the gathering.
UK Defense Ministry: Russia unlikely to achieve operational breakthrough in Donetsk Oblast despite heavy losses. Both Russia and Ukraine have “significant forces” fighting in the central sector of Donetsk Oblast for the past two weeks but neither side has made much progress.
Leonid Slutsky, leader of the populist Liberal Democratic Party and chairman of the foreign relations committee in the lower house of parliament, was an unusually public admission of problems within the military as Russian forces suffer a series of battlefield setbacks. He said the Russian military does not have an adequate number of doctors among other problems, a message he delivered in a meeting Saturday with the mothers of soldiers mobilized for the fight in Ukraine.
The United States is setting up a repair center in Poland for artillery supplied by Western countries, since due to wear and tear, about a third is already in unusable condition.
The prime ministers of Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine, the Lublin Triangle, Ingrida Simonyte, Mateusz Morawiecki and Denys Shmyhal, respectively – met in Kyiv yesterday for talks to discuss and reiterate their commitment to work together “in countering Russia’s armed aggression”.
Belgium signs declaration supporting Ukraine’s move towards EU, NATO membership. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a joint declaration on Nov. 26 in support of Ukraine’s move toward EU and NATO membership.
Russian and Belarusian fencers will remain banned from global competitions for a further four months following a decision by the International Fencing Federation (FIE) Congress to delay a vote on their participation. As Nathalie Vogel has said, it’s a small victory but considering how the Fencing Federation has been compromised by uncomfortable relationships with Russian interests, it’s significant.
Denmark’s autonomous Faroe Islands have renewed a fishing quota deal with Russia for one year despite Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, a local minister said on Saturday. The autonomous territory is highly dependent on fishing for its income, and the fisheries ministry says the deal with Russia covers 5% of its GDP, AFP reports. Russia has become a key commercial partner of the Faroe Islands since they and neighbouring Iceland fell out with the EU – including Denmark – between 2010 and 2014 over mackerel and herring quotas.
Belarusian FM Makei death- Reuters
[Makei] had attended a conference of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) - a military alliance of several post soviet states - in Yerevan earlier this week and was due to meet Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Monday.
Before the presidential elections and mass anti-government protests in Belarus in 2020, Makei had been one of the initiators of efforts to improve Belarus’ relations with the West and had criticised Russia.
However, he abruptly changed his stance after the start of the protests, claiming they were inspired by agents of the West.
“We are shocked by the reports of the death of the Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus Vladimir Makei,” Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova posted in her Telegram channel. “Official condolences will be published soon.”
Hungary and Iran meeting on deepening economic ties…
On 17 November, a meeting took place between Ehsan Khandouzi, the economics minster of Iran, and Péter Szijjártó, foreign and trade minister of Hungary, as part of a meeting of the Hungarian-Iranian Joint Economic Committee.
Afterwards, the two ministers announced a desire to develop closer economic ties, “in line with the policy of common sense and pragmatism.” This meeting caught many observers in Brussels by surprise, given that it signalled the Orbán government’s willingness to cooperate with the internationally sanctioned Iranian regime even in areas such as nuclear policy.
Katalin Cseh remarks on Hungary’s announcement to deepen cooperation with Iran at the present time: "Little to no regard for European values and interests".
Freedom Convoy 2.0' being planned for February 2023- CTV News
An organizer of the 'Freedom Convoy' says he's planning a reunion in Ottawa in February. James Bauder, the founder of Canada Unity, a group that called for an end to all vaccine mandates, posted on Facebook calling for a 'Freedom Convoy 2.0' Feb. 17 to 21 in Ottawa. "Bookmark these dates," Bauder said in the post. "Freedom Convoy Reunion theme will be the 'Olive Branch Edition.'"
Bauder was arrested on Feb. 20 in Ottawa as police cleared the occupation, which gridlocked the city's downtown for three weeks.
Chris Rickleton, Russia's Unhappy Club: The CSTO- RFE/RL
The video ad is fascinating, and signals the efforts of certain producers in Kazakhstan to distance themselves from the traditional relationship with Moscow, and add an element to their own national identity- freedom. This is something new: at the beginning of 2022, Kazahk President Tokayev has asked for assistance to quell protests from the CSTO- Russia stepped in. For greater context, Chris Rickleton explains why “Less than a year later though, and against the background of Russia's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, the bloc [CSTO] once promoted as the Eurasian answer to NATO is facing one of its toughest moments.” He calls the CSTO, “Russia’s unhappy club”.
Besides the Kazakh chocolatier, there were other signs coming from the leaders of the six CSTO members: the only member to give Russia assistance in its war of aggression against Ukraine was Belarus.
Daniel Bilak, The West must urgently overcome its fear of provoking Putin- The Atlantic Council
Putin benefits from escalation dominance because the West has handed him this advantage. Many seek to justify this excessive caution by arguing that the West does not want to get drawn into the war.
If Western leaders want peace, they must overcome their fear of Russian escalation. This means setting aside concerns about provoking Putin and demonstrating the kind of resolve that will force the Russian dictator to listen.
We already have examples that this approach works. Like all bullies, Putin victimizes those he perceives as weak but retreats whenever he encounters strength. When his recent nuclear saber-rattling was met with global condemnation and promises of “catastrophic consequences,” he quickly abandoned the ploy. Likewise, when his threatened withdrawal from the grain export deal was met by Turkish resolve to continue shipments, he meekly backed down. Putin vowed to “go nuclear” in defense of annexed Kherson and even declared “I’m not bluffing,” but when his army’s position became untenable, he simply retreated.
Charlotte Higgins, ‘I can’t take up a weapon, so I create’: how Ukraine’s artists are taking on Putin’s Russia- The Guardian
Putin’s invasion was designed to eradicate Ukraine’s sense of identity and history. But the nation’s artists are weaponising their work to mount a powerful act of resistance.
When I meet him, artist Oleksiy Sai, along with his wife and son, have slept the night in their studio, a warren of rooms tucked behind an unassuming courtyard in central Kyiv. It’s on the ground floor, and with good walls, so they reckon it’s reasonably safe from Russian rockets. Safer, that is, than their apartment: the previous day they were woken by the juddering scream-boom of cruise missile strikes, one cratering a children’s playground a block from their flat. Somehow, their windows survived, though the glass was blown out of most of the nearby buildings. Now, the whole family is busy making work: his son Vasyl is at a screen editing videos; his wife, Svitlana Ratoshnyuk, is making folksy textiles embroidered with “Fuck Putin” in Ukrainian.