Nov 28: E-Stories
Day642- UaSnow ZNPP Adviivka Kherson StormCrimea RUdead UAkids POLTruckers RUdisinfo RUspies Lavrov Popov CNmunitions Orbàn FIN EU Turkey CZ US A&P- Davis Joshi NoelReports Finley NATO Gic
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Dante keeping warm in Kyiv.
Stories we’re following…
VP of Ukrainian Chess Federation killed in action. Artem Sachuk, 39, was a resident of Zhytomyr who volunteered for the army shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Snowstorm causes power outages in 10 regions across Ukraine. Emergency services in Odesa Oblast conducted 62 missions, as 145 cars, six buses and five ambulances were dug out from the snow. Also, traffic along the M15 highway is currently prohibited, according to the report.
IAEA: Shelling and power loss at ZNPP highlight nuclear risks. According to workers at the Russian-occupied plant, a short circuit 100 kilometers north of the site caused the plant to lose connection to its 750 kilovolt (kV) power line at around 10:30 a.m. local time.
Me: Russian disinformation will be disseminating the narrative that Ukraine is shelling the ZNPP. Remember that the Ukrainians have not done so because they don’t want to cause a nuclear event on their own territory.
AFP has the following dispatch from Avdiivka, a town in Ukraine‘s eastern region of Donetsk, which has become the focus of the fighting amid a Russian assault on the strategically important former coal hub.
The only signs of life are a few chirping birds and barking dogs. The crump of explosions, some far away, some closer to home, is constant. Avdiivka has faced incessant attacks from Russian forces looking to surround and seize it.
Only around 1,350 people still live there, compared to 30,000 before the war. Russian troops hold large parts of the town just outside Donetsk – the regional capital under Russian occupation. The Ukrainians still defend an area approximately eight kilometres wide, from the city to the northwest.
In Avdiivka, there remains a solitary humanitarian aid centre, open in the basement of an uninhabited building and equipped with a generator. Each day, residents come to get warm, have a chat, a cup of coffee and charge their phones.
Until this summer Oksana worked as an executive in Ukraine‘s largest coking and chemical plant – a 340-hectares (850 acres) on the north side of Avdiivka. Only a handful of employees remain out of a pre-conflict workforce of 4,000. The Russians have moved in closer and taken up positions within sight of the plant’s tall chimneys. Ukrainian soldiers are still dug in defending the site. Oksana does not want to leave.
“We’ve spent 30 years investing everything we have in our house,” she said. “I shall be 50 on January 1. Why should I start again from scratch somewhere else?”
Combat Situation Update
Up-date from Avdiivka—Noel Reports: Russian forces advanced south of Avdiivka in the industrial zone. This area hosts a high(er) ground and has a lot of fortifications which can now be utilized by the Russians. Since 2014, this was Ukrainian controlled.
ISW: Moscow’s forces had launched “more than 150” attacks on Ukrainian positions in villages around the town. Yesterday, Ukraine said it had “repelled” two dozen attacks around Avdiivka, AFP reports. Kyiv did not report gains or losses in the area.
Kherson-Krynky: Footage confirms Russians are battling Ukrainians more east to previously AFU controlled area's. This is in line with recent reports but we need further confirmation of AFU presence in the suggested area.
Ukraine hits aircraft factory in Russia’s Smolensk. Ukrainian forces struck an aircraft plant in the Russian city of Smolensk overnight, Hromadske reported on Nov. 27, citing its source in Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR).
The Weather is on UA’s Side: Russian media publish photos of a Russian Project 03160 Raaptor patrol boat that is said to have broken in half near Sevastopol during the storm that is ravaging areas around the Black Sea.
Storm Bettina: the worst storm in the Black Sea region in 100 years hit Crimea in full force. Costal trenches were washed away as well as defences. Several locations in Crimea were flooded. That’s all good news. Footage from Balaklava.
The Guardian: NATO chief, Jens Stoltenberg’s comments on the conditions at the front:
What we see is intense fighting. This extremely difficult situation along the front line, especially in the in the east. We see high casualty numbers and some of the most intense fightings that we have seen throughout the whole war has actually taken place over the last weeks and couple of months.
At the same time, the frontline has not shifted in any significant way, so I think we need to distinguish between the fact that the frontline is not moving so much and the fact that actually there is very heavy fighting going on.
Again we are impressed by the bravery, the competence of the Ukrainian forces, and also their ability to actually strike behind the Russian lines, deep into Russian controlled territory. And of course military achievements can partly be measured in square meters but also on the losses you are able to inflict on your adversary.
UK Defence Intelligence Up-date: the Russian casualty rate is staggering.
Behind the Lines
National Resistance Center: Russia preparing to kidnap more Ukrainian children.
"The occupation administrations in the temporarily occupied lands were instructed to prepare new lists of children who do not have guardianship for their further deportation."
The National Resistance Center emphasises that the Russians do not return children to Ukraine, even despite the presence of their relatives in the territory controlled by Ukraine, and simplify the process of adopting these children in Russia.
Ministry: 2,100 trucks stuck at Ukraine border due to Polish blockade. As a result of Polish haulers blocking Ukrainian border crossing points, around 2,100 vehicles are stuck, unable to get into Ukraine as of Nov. 26, Ukraine's Infrastructure Ministry said in an update.
Latvia offers to help negotiate end to Polish border blockade. Latvia offered to "provide assistance in seeking solutions" to unblock the Polish border with Ukraine, during a Nov. 25 phone call between Latvia's Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins and Poland's EU Affairs Secretary Szymon Szynkowski.
A car belonging to some Kadyrovites [pro-Russian Chechen forces led by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov – ed.] was blown up by partisans in the Melitopol district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the weekend, reports themayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov.
Ukrainian hackers have infiltrated the Department of Information and Mass Communications (DIMC) of the Russian Ministry of Defence, headed by Igor Konashenkov, and gained access to the Russian media monitoring and analytics system Katyusha, reports InformNapalm (IN) intelligence community with reference to Cyber Resistance hackers.
"Employees of the department and the press services of the military districts and fleets under its control are constantly analysing the Russian information field. Everything that is directly or indirectly related to news about the activities of the Russian Armed Forces is reflected in various reports. The publications of foreign media are analysed separately."
InformNapalm published examples of "daily media reviews" prepared by the department. The community reports that a weekly report on the number of materials produced and the pace of plan implementation is sent to its head, Konashenkov, for approval.
Later, this document is sent out along with the Russian Armed Forces’ planned information events for the next week and a weekly report on the print media outlets to all heads of press services of districts, branches of the armed forces, fleets, etc.
Russia has stepped up the activities of its spy network in Ukraine, whereas the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has been taking extensive action to combat it, Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, has said to The Times.
Danilov said the Russian agents’ aim is to "drive a wedge between the political and military leadership of Ukraine, as well as inflame anti-government sentiments among the population".
Danilov noted that Russia is trying to take advantage of the "so-called tension" between President Zelensky and Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.
He also emphasised that Russia makes attempts to "spread disinformation and propaganda to destabilise the situation in Ukraine".
Alex Finley: “Erdogan has been pushing to see where the limits are. So far, he’s gotten no pushback. Sanctioned goods flow thru Turkey to Russia. Sanctioned yachts float in Turkish ports. Sanctioned oligarchs come and go as they please. Turkey is a member of NATO!”
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said Moscow has been directly involved in the appearance of an increasing number of asylum seekers at the Finnish border, during the Defence Ministers meeting on Monday, as reported by European Pravda.
"In recent weeks, Moscow has been facilitating the arrival of migrants at Finland’s border with Russia, prompting the closure of border crossing points, using migration as a tool to put pressure... NATO stands in solidarity with our allied Finland, and I welcome that Frontex is helping to bolster Finland’s borders."
Meanwhile in Russia
Russian FM Lavrov has said that he would take part in an OSCE meeting in North Macedonia if Bulgaria opened its air space, and that some western countries had asked for meetings with him.
“Apparently Bulgaria has promised Macedonia it will open its air space - if that happens then we will be there. Let’s see,” Lavrov told a conference in Moscow. “There are already several requests for meetings - including from Western representatives.”
Me: great idea. Arrest him.
Russian State TV's Unfortunate Looking Map Sparks Avalanche of Jokes, Memes.
Russian TV drew the route from St. Petersburg, Russia, to the Finnish capital Helsinki after Finland closed all but one of its eastern border crossings has sparked mockery online, with social media users suggesting it looked like a middle finger or male…you know. The map was broadcast on the Russia-1 channel during a show presented by Evgeny Popov, also a member of Vladimir Putin's United Russia party in the country's parliament.
The Ukrainian military found a Chinese-made 60-mm Type 83 (M-83A) Mortar bomb on Russian positions in the Melitopol region. They were discovered earlier - (made in September 1975) - Defense Express wrote about this in September 2022, noting that: a) these could be both direct deliveries from China and through third countries; b) there are no 60-mm mortars in service in Russia.
Moscow authorities are preparing to sharply increase funding for a video surveillance system for citizens, which has been built since the early 2010s and which, according to the mayor’s office, already covers three-quarters of public places and 90% of the residential sector.
In 2024, Moscow’s expenses for “the introduction of digital technologies to ensure law and order and prevent crime” will amount to 1.97 billion rubles, according to materials from the capital’s budget, which was approved by the Moscow City Duma last week.
Compared to the current year, spending on the item through which the maintenance of video cameras with a facial recognition system is paid will increase by 146% more (0.8 billion rubles in 2023).
Russia has failed at the largest airshow in the Middle East. Russian arms exporter didn't report signing any deals at the event.
The largest aerospace exhibition in the Middle East, Dubai Airshow 2023, which brought together leading manufacturers of civil and military aircraft, seems to have ended in a fiasco for Rosoboronexport.
Following the November event, Russian state corporation, a member of the Rostec holding company and a monopolist in the supply of Russian arms for export, did not report the signing of a single contract.
At the previous Dubai 2021 Salon, Rosoboronexport reported deals worth $1.3 billion, and in 2017 it boasted contracts worth $10 billion. At Russia's last arms show ("ARMY-2023"), the company agreed on sales worth $600 million, while a year earlier at a similar event - $390 million.
Allied Support
The Prime Minister of Finland allowed the closure of the last checkpoint on the border with Russia. “If necessary, Finland will close the eastern border, all its checkpoints and concentrate the asylum center elsewhere,” he said ( quoted by Yle). According to Orpo, if such a decision is made, refugees will be able to apply for international protection at Helsinki-Vantaa airport or seaports.
Věra Jourová, vice-president for values and transparency at the EU Commission, is part of a delegation in Kiev this week to discuss the priorities for Ukraine in the path towards accession to the bloc: anti-corruption, de-oligarchisation, regulating lobbying and minority rights.
Me: scratch ‘minority rights’ and Italy would have to do the same. Believe me.
US to demand that Türkiye comply with sanctions against Russia and Hamas. Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson is expected to visit Ankara to discuss Türkiye’s compliance with sanctions against the Russian Federation and Hamas, reports Bloomberg.
Nelson will meet his Turkish counterparts and ask for Turkish compliance with US sanctions against a number of Russian entities and Hamas’s financial activities.
Sources told Bloomberg that the US has also warned a number of Turkish companies about possible sanctions that may disrupt their ties with the Western financial system.
Czechia turns to export licenses as arms for Ukraine run low. Defense Minister Jana Cernochova said her country would compensate for the low supply by providing commercial licenses to private companies.
US official says Ukraine aid bill unlikely to be passed before 2024. "I think it would be very difficult to get it done by the end of the year, and the impediment, currently, is the White House policy on the southern border," Turner said, as quoted by Bloomberg.
Me: the lag time between passing the bill and getting the kit and humanitarian aid to the Ukrainians is 6 months. Supplies are running low.
US Senate announces vote on Ukraine aid request. "I intend to bring the President’s national security supplemental package to the floor as soon as the week of December 4th," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said.
The Guardian: At a meeting on November 28-29, the heads of foreign affairs of NATO countries will give recommendations to Ukraine regarding joining the alliance. Ukraine will become a member of NATO under the condition of reforms. Stoltenberg also said that Sweden’s pending Nato membership “will make us all safer” and he called on Turkey and Hungary to complete its ratifications.
Bloomberg: Viktor Orbán threatens to disrupt the December summit of EU leaders, which will discuss aid to Kyiv and the issue of starting negotiations on Ukraine's EU accession. It wants a 'strategic discussion' on the financial support and sanctions against Russia.
Viktor Orbàn says that transgressing international law is unacceptable, but the EU handled it incorrectly. He says WE globalised it. WE. The ‘Donetsk’ war should have been limited to a localised event without an international response.
Ukraine War Cost Russia 'Military Superiority' in Baltics: Report—Newsweek
In the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), a research center and a forum for debate on major international political and economic issues, a report published on November 14 by Pavel Baev said that many Western policy planners have not grappled with the long-term implications of what the war in Ukraine means for security in the Baltics.
The Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were annexed by the Soviet Union during World War II. Since becoming independent in the 1990s, their forces have been far smaller and less developed than Russia's. For years, the Baltics have been a focal point for the American-led NATO alliance, which has strengthened its position in the region amid concerns that it was outgunned by Russia.
Baev, a longtime Russia expert whose work included a stint at a research institute inside the Soviet Union's defense ministry, wrote that Russia's war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, has taken an extreme toll on its military and challenges its ability to maintain a large force on its western flank with NATO.
"Whatever the scope of the outcome of the war, Russia will not be able to rebuild a position of military superiority in the Baltic theater or even to set an approximate balance of forces with NATO, which is implementing a new plan to strengthen its posture in this reconfigured direction," Baev wrote.
“Russia has effectively lost its position of power and the capacity to threaten its neighbors with projections of military power, and while for many Western policy planners these changes appear unnatural and transitional, in Moscow they are perceived as both unacceptable and irreversible," he added.
