Nov 29: E-Stories
Day643 Kherson Budanova CombatSit NATO RUinside Europol Smolensk POL FIN Iran Vasev CoE EU Lavrov 75% RUbudget Mitsotakis USaid BlackSea RUoil A&P VogelOECD UKDef Razom ISW Zelensky Barrons LiveUAMap
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
Russia had carried out attacks on 10 of Ukraine’s regions over the past day, killing one person and injuring at least two people, local officials reported early on Monday, according to the Kyiv Independent. Russian shelling of Nikopol injures woman. Russian forces struck the Nikopol district in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast six times on Nov. 27, wounding a 51-year-old woman, Governor Serhii Lysak reported.
Russian air strike on Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast injures 4. A Russian air strike on Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast on Nov. 28 injured four female employees of a local workshop, the Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor's Office reported.
Evening up-date: loud explosions were heard near Kherson, reports Roman Mrochko on Telegram.
Babel: «Marianna Budanova, the wife of the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, was poisoned with heavy metals. The woman is in the hospital. "Babel" was informed about this by intelligence sources. After a prolonged deterioration of her health, she was hospitalized.
"The course of treatment is now being completed, and then there will be a check-up by the doctors," said the interlocutor at the HUR and added that the woman had been diagnosed with damage by heavy metals. "These substances are not used in any way in everyday life and military affairs. Their presence may indicate a purposeful attempt to poison a specific person," the intelligence agency said.»
DTEK: Russian attack on power plant in front-line Ukrainian region causes blackout. Russia’s overnight attack on a front-line Ukrainian region damaged a thermal power plant operated by the country’s energy giant DTEK, the company reported on Nov. 27.
On Tuesday morning, almost 100,000 people were still without power on the Crimean Peninsula and some still had no water supply, the Russia-installed governor said, announcing that several regions were still under a state of emergency.
Police finish mandatory evacuation of children from Kupiansk district. Mandatory evacuation of children from Kharkiv Oblast's Kupiansk district has finished after 296 children left the area constantly targeted by Russian attacks, the regional police said on Nov. 27.
Combat Situation Update
Preliminary information came out that Russian Major General Vladimir Vasilyevich Zavadsky, (former) Commander of the Taman Division and deputy of the 14th Army Corps has been killed, reportedly blown up by a mine today. Needs further confirmation.
There was also an important analysis of recent attacks against Ukraine - missiles, massive drone strikes. We analyzed the tactics of defense against our air defense.
There is a clear need to develop and strengthen our mobile fire groups, as well as all the most effective air defense systems.
We also analyzed the work of the Patriots and Nasams - everything is very effective, and I am grateful to our partners who help us with these systems.
The Air Force Commander and other relevant commanders, the Ministry of Defense have the necessary instructions.
ISW: Lavrov claimed on Nov. 27 that the West is currently trying to "freeze" the war to gain time and rearm Ukraine for future attacks on Russia. Several Russian milbloggers similarly claimed that any "truce" or pause in the war will only benefit Ukraine and allow Ukrainian forces to rest, refit, and relaunch offensive operations.
Clear Russian concern about Ukraine's ability to rearm and relaunch offensives in the case of the pause highlights Russia’s concern over continued NATO and Western support for Ukraine.
Russia is rapidly replacing losses and belatedly moving its economy to a war footing, and ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin would leverage any pause or ceasefire to prepare for renewed aggression against Ukraine.
Ukraine's partners have the capability to sustain and accelerate aid to Ukraine and enable Ukraine to restore maneuver to the battlefield.
Ukrainian marines fighting for the bridgehead in Krynyk on the left bank of the Kherson region.
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has urged members of the alliance to “stay the course” in supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia’s invasion, Reuters reports.
“It’s our obligation to ensure that we provide Ukraine with the weapons they need,” Stoltenberg told reporters as he arrived for a gathering of foreign ministers from Nato countries at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.
“We just have to stay the course. This is about also our security interests.”
Ukraine’s Commission for Coordination of Euro-Atlantic Integration has approved the draft adapted Annual National Programme (ANP) for 2024, which defines the criteria for Ukraine's eligibility for NATO membership, reports European Pravda with reference to the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers.
The draft programme contains five main sections: political and economic, defence and military, resource, security, and legal issues. The political component is consistent with Kyiv's commitments to join the EU, the Cabinet of Ministers said.
"The adapted ANP is as concise and practical as possible, focused on reforms in the security and defence sector. The democratic transformation field has a clear reference to the tasks that Ukraine is carrying out on its way to European integration," said Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration.
NATO's European members, Canada providing half of military support for Ukraine. NATO's European members and Canada provide almost 50% of the military support Ukraine receives to repel Russian aggression, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a meeting of the alliance’s foreign ministers on Nov. 28.
Canada’s foreign minister, Melanie Joly, has pushed back against suggestions that Ukraine needs to change its strategy as the war drags towards a third year, AFP reports. “We have a good strategy and Ukraine has a good strategy, but we need to implement it,” she said.
It is not for Nato, the EU or anyone else to decide Ukraine’s strategy to defeat Russia, Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s foreign minister, said on his way into the Nato meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels.
“We have to assist their strategy. Our strategy has to be Russia losing; for the last time losing in this neighbourhood,” he said, adding that Ukraine had shown how successful it was at “pushing back the Russians”.
Landsbergis said failure to supply Ukraine with enough ammunition was not an option as the consequences would be more wars in Europe.
“If Ukraine is forced to stop for one or the other reason, because it’s not … getting enough weapons, ammunition, technological breakthrough, then it’s our choice. This is our choice … And then we will just have to just start the clock for the next conflict,” he told reporters.
Behind the Lines
Ukraine hits aircraft factory in Russia’s Smolensk. Ukrainian forces struck an aircraft plant in the Russian city of Smolensk overnight, Hromadske reported on Nov. 27, citing its source in Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR).
Russian media: Russian company imports aircraft, helicopter parts from Ukrainian factories. Spare parts used to repair Russian military airplanes and helicopters appear to have been imported from several Ukrainian factories, according to an investigation published by the independent Russian news outlet Important Stories on Nov. 27.
Yle: Finland will completely close its land border with Russia for asylum seekers until December 13, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said. The reason is a sharp influx of asylum seekers from Africa and the Middle East from the territory of the Russian Federation. Until recently, eight out of nine checkpoints with Russia were closed, except for the northernmost one.
Polish border blockade may ramp up prices on imported goods. Even though some retail chains say they prioritize Ukrainian-made products, certain foodstuffs like cocoa, coffee, oranges, and salt are primarily imported, according to the Director General of the Ukrainian KOLO retail chain, Marina Serhienko.
VChK-OGPU—The Russian bicycle attack at the Finnish Border: The recent bicycle-powered 'migrant invasion' on the Finnish border was reportedly ordered by Russian Presidential Chief of Staff Sergei Kiriyenko and organised by Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, but has failed to achieve its apparent objectives.
“Bicycles were purchased through the state-owned VTB bank "for the future Tour de Helsinki, and outreach work was carried out among illegal immigrants, who, of course, wanted to get to Western Europe. They managed to scrape together several hundred migrants, who staged an “assault” on the Finnish border."
“The security forces in Finland quickly got their bearings and repelled most of the illegal crossings, and later promptly decided to completely close all checkpoints on the border with Russia. The migrants were later returned to Moscow and put to work as street sweepers.”
Meanwhile in Russia
Poll: 75% of Russians support war. An overwhelming majority of Russians continue to support the war either strongly or moderately (75%), with only around 20% being actively opposed, a Nov. 28 report by the Carnegie Moscow Center, citing polling information from the Russian independent polling organization The Levada Center.
Putin signed the law on the Federal Budget for 2024-26 and for the first time since the Soviet Union, Russia intends to allocate almost a third of all expenditures to maintaining the army and the military-industrial complex.
For the next year, spending for "national defense" will be 10.775 trillion rubles (121.5 billion USD) - 70% more than in 2023 (6.8 trillion), 2.3 times more than in 2022 (4.7 trillion), and three times higher than the pre-war 2021 indicators (3.5 trillion).
Another 3.338 trillion rubles (37.5 billion USD) will be spent on Siloviki - the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the RosGvardia, the special services and the Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN).
The combined expenditures on defense and security will be almost 40% of the budget, 36,66 trillion rubles (412 billion USD) for 2024.
Iran finalizes deal to buy Russian fighter jets, helicopters. Iran has finalized arrangements for the delivery of Russian Su-35 fighter jets and Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters, Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Mahdi Farahi told Tashim news agency on Nov. 28.
Putin’ Spokesman Dmitry Peskov issued a threat, saying Russia will impose a naval blockade against the entire European Union if the EU introduces any new sanctions against Russia.
Me: that would be an act of war. More threats.
Reuters: Russia's oil trade with India faces currency obstacle. Russia's oil trade with India, one of its most important buyers, faces a major obstacle due to payments in currency other than the U.S. dollar, Reuters reported on Nov. 27, citing undisclosed sources. A lack of a viable alternative to the dollar remains a serious problem for Russia, affecting its oil trade with buyers in Africa, China, and Turkey, Reuters said.
Moscow’s Lefortovo district court extended the pre-trial detention of the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich for two months until 30 January 2024, the court’s press service said.
A Russian army volunteer supplier went to a Russian church to ask for donations. While speaking, he accidentally disclosed the fact that the Russian forces had high casualty rates near Donetsk. The Russian state-controlled media does not mention the numbers of Russian soldiers that have been killed or wounded. According to Julia Davis’s latest analysis, Solovyev’s programme has dropped in viewership, which she feels is because Russians are losing interest in the war.
Ukraine and Baltic States --- Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia --- are boycotting next meeting of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe because of presence of Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The the Russian Foreign Minister's planned attendance "risks legitimizing aggressor Russia as a rightful member of our community of free nations."
Allied Support
US Secretary of State Blinken is going to Europe to rally forces in support of Ukraine. On November 27, Blinken went to Brussels for talks with the foreign ministers of NATO countries, and then he will head to North Macedonia for a meeting of the OSCE.
During his trip to gather additional support, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken raised the topic of immediate additional support for Ukraine during a bilateral meeting in Brussels with Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide.
The European Union mission will present proposals in Kyiv on the bloc's security commitments to Ukraine. The EU representative will visit Kyiv with the document next week, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said.
The address of the retired British general, ex-head of the Joint Command of the British Armed Forces, Sir Richard Barrons, at a forum in Lucerne, Switzerland, to European officials and opinion leaders:
The Council of Europe has agreed to more than quadruple its spending on training Ukrainian soldiers to battle Russia, AFP reported. The Council of the European Union approved on Nov. 28 an additional 194 million euros ($213 million) for its training mission for Ukrainian soldiers, bringing the total funding to around $280 million.
EU to likely ban trade of Russian diamonds. The European Union will likely ban the trade of Russian diamonds as part of its upcoming 12th sanctions package, France24 said on Nov. 28, citing internal documents seen by AFP.
Ukraine, Italy start talks on security guarantees. Ukraine and Italy began negotiations on a bilateral agreement on security guarantees under the Group of Seven (G7) Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine, the Presidential Office reported on Nov. 28.
Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has said military and financial support for Ukraine is of “existential importance” to Europe. In a speech to parliament, he was quoted by AFP as saying:
We will continue with this support as long as it is necessary. This support is of existential importance. For Ukraine … but also for us in Europe.
None of us want to imagine what even more serious consequences it would have for us if Putin won this war.
Germany provides $328 million for Ukraine's energy grid. Germany has provided Ukraine's state grid operator Ukrenergo with 300 million euros ($328.4 million) for the repair and modernization of the energy grid, German Ambassador to Ukraine Martin Jaeger said on Nov. 27.
German FM Annalena Baerbock said it was important that Germany and the rest of the western allies in Nato and the EU would continue to increase their support for Ukraine. She is at the NATO meeting in Brussels.
“We are making clear here also the Nato meeting in Brussels that security and peace in Ukraine is also insurance for peace in Europe and this is why, we, Germany as all our other partners, keeping up increasing our support for Ukraine, because Ukraine is not only defending the peace for its own people are defending us in Europe.”
Japan intends to join the multinational project on demining Ukraine. Tokyo will provide Kyiv with equipment and also assist in personnel training.
President Zelensky addressed the International Maritime Organization, emphasizing that it is in the Black Sea that Ukraine has demonstrated not only that it will continue to contribute to global security, particularly food security, but also that it is capable of protecting security.
Me: This is an important speech as it deals with the freedom of navigation.
According to AFP, the caretaker Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, is the clear frontrunner to become the next head of Nato. Multiple diplomats put the veteran well ahead of other hopefuls – including the Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, and Latvia’s top diplomat, Krišjānis Kariņš – to take over next year from the alliance’s current secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg.
Nato allies have put pressure on Turkey to finally approve Sweden’s stalled bid to join the military alliance, AFP reports.
US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, told his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, at a meeting of alliance foreign ministers that Sweden’s application should be ratified “as soon as possible”, his spokesperson said.
“The strength and credibility of our alliance are at stake. We must not lose another day,” France’s foreign minister, Catherine Colonna, said.
Two London-based Russian journalists, Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, say they interviewed the businessman, Alexey Kozlov, for their 2019 book The Compatriots because of his family’s historical connections to Soviet intelligence. He has now won a court injunction against the book’s publisher.
Kozlov claims the book defames him and he says allegations that he owes his career in finance to help from the KGB are untrue. Soldatov and Borogan say the disputed passages in the book come from Kozlov himself when they met him in Moscow in 2018 and spoke to him on the record over three and a half hours.
Last month, Hamburg’s district court agreed to Kozlov’s petition and imposed a temporary ban on sales of the English-language ebook of The Compatriots in Germany. The ruling excludes already printed copies “for reasons of proportionality”. Kozlov’s lawyers have written to the book’s US publisher, Hachette, and demanded that all books worldwide are withdrawn from circulation.
Zelensky's office sends delegation to meet with Republican leaders. President Zelensky's office dispatched a delegation to the United States to meet and build relationships with Republican Party leaders, New Voice reported on Nov. 27.
US Speaker Johnson says he’s confident Ukraine, Israel aid will pass House. U.S. Speaker Mike Johnson expressed confidence and optimism in Congress' ability to secure additional funding for both Israel and Ukraine, he said in Florida on Nov. 27.
The UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, cancelled a meeting with the Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The Greek PM did end up meeting with Keir Starmer, the head of the Labour Party. Sunak’s slight has been noted, and is currently making the rounds in the media.
[photo: Keir Starmer’s official X account]
Crest Security Review on Disinformation: defining terms.
For those who have started getting into information operations, which are used for political and psychological warfare, the following terms can be useful. They are often misused by practitionners and operators in the field.
Programming notes…
OECD Conference—Session 7: How can information-sharing and regulation help unmask foreign interference?
This session will address how information-sharing and regulation must evolve to identify and prevent foreign information manipulation and interference, and to better understand the behaviours and actions of foreign malign actors in offline and online information spaces.
Listen in to Nathalie Vogel, Research Fellow at the Institute of World Politics, as she talks about dealing with and preventing FIMI operations.
