Nov 30: E-Stories
Day645 RUstrikes Kherson Donetsk Mariupol KerchBridge Poland Slovakia RUtorture Assad NK EU US Abramov RUmigrants Putin Budanova Kadyrov Allies NATO A&P UAArt Buziashvili UkDef ISW EUvsDisinfo Gabuev
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Ukrainian Art: Olga Rapai-Markish works. This one is "Girls with flowers and ears of corn in a sheaf" from a ceramic panel on the facade of the House of National Chois and Dance groups. You can see it from the street. It was also inspired by Maria Prymachenko.
Stories we’re following…
Russian shelling and air strikes continue, killing 4 and injuring 9 Ukrainian citizens in 5 oblasts: Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Kherson and Nikopol, as confirmed by local prosecutor’s offices. In Sumy, two women and a 7-year-old child was killed.
Crippling Black Sea storm reportedly destroys Kerch bridge barriers. Deadly weather that pounded the Black Sea region on Nov. 27 in what some have dubbed ‘storm of the century’ has washed away Russia-installed barriers intended to protect the Kerch Bridge and Sevastopol bay, OSINT researchers said on X.
Satellite image of burial grounds outside Mariupol: when Mariupol is liberated, the Ukrainians authorities can begin to investigate and identify all the people who have been killed in Mariupol. The seige started in March 2022. This is one site: in all likelihood, there are people buried under buildings that the Russians are now tearing down, added to the victims of the mobile crematoria.
Combat Situation Update
General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces SitRep—Dnipro & Avdiivka
Ukrainian footholds on the left bank of the Kherson region.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms that "sabotage, raiding and reconnaissance activities are being conducted on this section of the southern front, the Defense Forces are tracking the logistics routes for the supply of ammunition and food to the Russians, as well as searching for and destroying their personnel and equipment." The enemy, according to the Ukrainian side, is suffering heavy losses.
Russia is ramping up its attacks in the eastern Donetsk region, the Ukrainian military has said. Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun has “doubled its artillery fire and airstrikes” and had also “intensified ground infantry attacks”.
Russian forces claimed to have taken control of the village of Khromove in the same region. The village is on the western edge of Bakhmut, a city that fell to Russia over summer after a months-long battle and which remains the scene of heavy fighting.
Russian submarines lurk in Black Sea despite inclement weather. Two Russian submarines capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles remain in combat mode in the Black Sea, defense officials reported on Nov. 28. Poor weather conditions have forced Russia to withdraw some naval assets in recent days. Ukraine Southern Defense says the missile threat level remains “high.”
Crippling Black Sea storm reportedly destroys Kerch Bridge barriers. Deadly weather that pounded the Black Sea region on Nov. 27 in what some have dubbed ‘storm of the century’ has washed away Russia-installed barriers intended to protect the Kerch Bridge and Sevastopol bay, OSINT researchers said on X. Ukrainian intelligence believes the barriers were created to guard against drone attacks.
Five “high-ranking” Russian officials have been killed in a Ukrainian strike on a building in an occupied part of the Kherson region, according to Ukraine. The National Resistance Center of Ukraine, a branch of the Ukrainian armed forces, said on Telegram that the strike had targeted a meeting in the village of Yuvileyne following “information provided by the underground and concerned local residents”. “As a result of successful actions, five high-ranking officials are known to have died,” it said.
Russian general Vladimir Zavadsky, deputy commander of the 14th Army Corps of the Russian Federation, has died in Ukraine, he is the seventh soldier of this rank whose death has been confirmed by Russia (out of 12 dead generals).
NATO’s Stoltenberg, has warned that the bloc must not underestimate Russia and its ability to continue fighting the war in Ukraine. “Russia’s economy is on a war footing, Putin has a high tolerance for casualties, and Russian aims in Ukraine have not changed,” he said.
Behind the Lines
Invaders cannot provide insulin to diabetic residents of TOT - National Resistance Center: The occupation authorities are unable to provide diabetic residents of the temporarily occupied territories with medicines, even the 'new citizens' of the Russian Federation.
"In the temporarily occupied territories, there are interruptions in the supply of glucose monitoring medicines and insulin to patients with diabetes. The reason is the inability of the Russian industry to produce such systems and medicines, and the country itself is isolated from the civilized world," the statement said.
As a result, diabetic residents do not receive proper care and treatment. Earlier, the Russians started distributing insulin in the temporarily occupied territories only if a person has a Russian passport.
Ariana Gic reminds us that the Russians have been branding Ukrainians and carving swastikas into their flesh since invading in 2014. “Nearly a DECADE. Russian occupation forces carved a swastika into the man's back while holding him captive for 10 hours in Russia occupied Ukraine in 2014.” Russian branding of Ukrainian POWs continues today.
Olenivka POW camp, where Ukrainians were tortured, was likely supervised by a high-ranking official from Moscow. Kirill Popov, the first deputy head of the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service's Moscow branch, is likely to have overseen the work of the Olenivka POW camp, located in the occupied parts of Donetsk Oblast.
Reuters: Russia likely driving revitalization of North Korean special economic zone. Increasing economic and military ties between Russia and North Korea are likely behind a revitalization of North Korea's Rason Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Reuters reported on Nov. 29.
Ukrainian truckers stage counterprotest at Polish border. Polish police told RMF that Ukrainian truckers were blocking the Przemsyl- Medyka crossing from the Polish side of the border, creating traffic jams that made it difficult for local residents to get home.
Tusk accuses Polish government of 'inaction' on Ukraine border blockade. Donald Tusk, the leader of the Polish Civic Coalition (KO), accused Poland's government of "inaction" regarding the ongoing blockade of the border with Ukraine by Polish protesters, the Polish Press Agency reported on Nov. 28.
Slovakia’s Union of Slovak carriers (UNAS) on Nov. 27 announced its plans to block the Vyšné Nemecké crossing on the border with Uzhhorod in western Ukraine, the organization said on Facebook. Tensions between Slovakia, Poland, and Ukraine have risen after Polish truckers and farmers started a blockade of some of the busiest border checkpoints with Ukraine. Some of that traffic has been diverted through Slovakia, causing major traffic hiccups.
Multi-year synchronization project between Ukrenergo, European power operators completed. The project to synchronize the state grid operator Ukrenergo to its counterparts in continental Europe has been completed, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) reported on Nov. 28.
Russia claims Ukrainian drone downed near Moscow. Russian air defenses downed an attack drone on approach toward Russia's capital on Nov. 29, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin claimed. Russia's defense ministry reported that a Ukrainian drone was shot down at 7:30 a.m. local time above the Podolsk area, some 20 kilometers south of Moscow.
Meanwhile in Russia
Russia has failed in its bid to be re-elected to the executive council of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Following a vote of the member states, Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland were elected to fill the three seats from the Eastern Europe bloc that were set to come free for the 2024-2026 term.
The leading supercomputer expert in Russia, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergei Abramov, may be sent to a psychiatric hospital. In May, he was accused of financing extremism (Part 1 of Article 282.3 of the Criminal Code) for transferring money to one of the organizations banned in Russia. Which one was not officially announced, but, according to Kommersant, it was the Anti-Corruption Foundation of Alexei Navalny.
ISW—New Russian draft bill on migrants in Russia: Russian officials appear to be attempting to further disenfranchise migrants living in Russia, likely to support ongoing efforts to coerce migrants into military service while also appeasing increasingly xenophobic Russian ultranationalists.
Russian Interior Ministry prepares draft law requiring foreign visitors to sign 'loyalty agreement.' The proposed law, which was seen by correspondents of the Russian state news agency TASS, would prohibit “hindering the activities of Russian public authorities” as well as “discrediting the external and internal state policies of Russia, public bodies, and their officials in any form.” In addition, foreigners may not: "misuse the right to free speech", "distort historical truth"or "disrespecting Russian traditional spiritual values"
There’s a lot of talk in Russia about the demographic decline of the Russian population. Most analysts agree it is caused by the fact that Russia is sending its males to the front. During his speech yesterday, Putin reiterated his vision for a "new world order" in which Russia has the right to conquer all countries previously ruled by the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union.
The campaign to increase the population is centred around the demand that Russian women not go to university and stay home to have babies instead—8 of them. The lack of manpower is being felt in industries around the Federation. "Having many children and a large family should become a norm, a way of life for all peoples of Russia", Putin said.
Putin signed a law extending a moratorium on paying compensation to depositors of the USSR Savings Bank, whose savings were “frozen” by the Soviet government in 1991 and then burned in the hyperinflation of the 1990s. The compensation process was suspended in 2003, and since then the moratorium has been extended annually. The law signed by Putin - the 20th in a row - postpones the decision until 2027. The explanatory note to the document states that the state does not have “sources of financial support” in order to pay off Soviet deposits.
Supplies of computer processors to Russia have dropped sharply this year. From January to October, imports of chips from Intel fell by 64% year-on-year, and from AMD by 70%. In total, 178 thousand Intel products worth 3.2 billion rubles were delivered to Russia. and 35 thousand AMD products worth 372 million rubles, follows from data from the IT holding Fplus, published by Kommersant.
Julia Davis: “Russian state TV couldn't think of a better person than Andrey Lugovoy (best known for the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko) to weigh in on the poisoning of Kyrylo Budanov's wife, Marianna Budanova. Putin's mouthpieces smirked throughout the segment.”
Irene Kenyon: the Russian general prosecutor is bribing Algiers, asking him not to arrest Putin on the International Criminal Court warrant issued in the spring and sign an agreement to that effect in exchange for "stronger partnership" between the two countries. The parties signed a protocol of cooperation, within the framework of which employees of the Algerian Ministry of Justice were allowed to attend training events at the University of the Russian Prosecutor's Office for free.
The Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project, which should be extended to China to replace Gazprom’s lost European market, continues to hang in the air. China is unwilling to invest a single yuan in the new pipeline, offering Russia to pay the full multibillion-dollar construction bill and also demanding discounts on Russian gas, The South China Morning Post reports, citing a source familiar with the situation in Moscow. “Beijing understands very well that it can dictate its terms and that it is in a much stronger position (than Russia),” explains the publication’s interlocutor.
The sixteen-year-old son of the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, Adam has been appointed curator of the Chechen battalion named after Sheikh Mansur as part of the Russian Ministry of Defense, said the speaker of the Chechen parliament Magomed Daudov.
“Adam Kadyrov has been entrusted with an important direction: from now on he will oversee one of the most combat-ready units within the Russian Ministry of Defense,” Daudov wrote in his Telegram channel.
Russia is ready for an armed conflict with NATO countries, but whether it starts or not depends on NATO, said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
“The choice is entirely on NATO’s side. We are ready, as has already been demonstrated, to defend our national interests with all the means at our disposal,” Ryabkov said in an interview with Izvestia.
At the same time, he warned NATO countries that they had chosen a “dangerous path.” “The people who continue to test our strength apparently believe that there are no limits to their own “gambling,” the game of raising bets. But they may be among the losers,” Ryabkov noted.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó raised the question to rethink NATO’s 'failed' strategy towards Ukraine, because the current one, which provides for support to Ukraine in countering Russia's invasion, is allegedly not working.
Allied Support
European Commission approves a draft proposal to ban on Russian diamonds - AFP. The European Commission has approved a draft on trade in diamonds originating in Russia, transited or exported from Russia, as well as diamonds cut in third countries and diamond jewelry.
The European Union has delivered about 300,000 of the 1m shells it has promised to Ukraine, the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has said. Kuleba said the demands of Ukraine’s war effort meant there was a need for greater alignment of Ukrainian and Nato arms production and to create “a Euro-Atlantic common area” of defence industries.
Parliament chairman: Ukraine to open office in European Parliament. The proposed move would help increase the compatibility of Ukraine's parliament with European institutions, Chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk said, and would allow Ukrainian lawmakers to observe the operations and functions of the European Parliament.
EU sanctions envoy: Kazakhstan reducing export of dual-use goods to Russia. Kazakhstan has significantly reduced the amount of exports of dual-use goods to Russia, but the exports of other goods to Russia have simultaneously increased, EU Sanctions Envoy David O'Sullivan said during a press conference in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Nov. 28.
Reuters: US Ukraine aid brought major investments to Texas, Arizona, Pennsylvania. The White House has been highlighting the financial benefits of arming Ukraine to individual U.S. states to muster Republican support for further aid, Reuters reported on Nov. 28. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration reportedly circulated documents showcasing $27 billion worth of investments and spending on arms production in each state
Ukraine can count on both military and civilian support from Denmark. The Ambassador of Denmark to Ukraine Ole Egberg Mikkelsen assured. According to him, in the political context there are no signs that support for Ukraine will decrease.
Alexander Gabuev: New polling from Russia
Alexander Gabuev: “Support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine has averaged about 75% since the start of the war. The vast majority of Russians are in a state of learned indifference. They “mostly support” what the regime is doing while waiting for it all to end.”
The number of those who don’t support the war has also remained steady, at 19-20%. Only 13% of these people, however, blame Russia for the conflict.
Russians who oppose the war are still very unlikely to protest against it publicly: the risks of doing so remain prohibitively high, and following years of failed protests, it appears Russian society has concluded that protests are both dangerous and futile.
Ordinary Russians adapted to the new economic conditions caused by the war in under a year. In fact, from summer 2022, when increases in the minimum wage, pensions, & payments for those fighting in Ukraine came into effect, many people’s economic outlook actually improved.
Most Russians understand that the war will not be over any time soon, and prefer to focus on their own lives, while the authorities sedate people with propaganda and buy their support with financial assistance.
Respondents’ assessments of their own mood have been consistently positive for the past 18 months—with the exception of the mobilization period. Even the start of the war, while a shock, didn’t really impact on the public mood.
Last fall’s chaotic mobilization, however, prompted the swiftest and most dramatic decline in public mood in thirty years of polls. People are happy not to think about the war in Ukraine—until there is a chance of it directly impacting them.
Accordingly, once the mobilization was over, the public mood bounced back. The old social contract has been restored: the war may be dragging on, but the government has assured the public it will be dealt with by professionals—in exchange for public support.
How reliable is the polling data? It is incorrect to suggest that Russians are reluctant to take part in polls. The refusal rate is similar to that of the U.S. polls considered the gold standard for survey research, and has changed little since the start of the war.
As for whether people are afraid to give a “wrong” answer, respondents are always subject to outside influences. The very ability to detect a “right” answer demonstrates the existence of public opinion that forces an individual to conform.
Ultimately, the problem is that many Russians equate their country with the political regime, and therefore back government initiatives even while recognizing the harm they have done: 41% believe the war has done more harm than good.
A good example is Russians' reluctance to accept any meaningful compromise with Ukraine when it comes to a settlement, although 50% technically support peace talks.
