Nov 4 : E-Stories
Day618 RUAttacks Kherson Vuledar Sevastopol Gazprom RUrecruitsn Zaluzhny NorKor USsanctions EU GER DTek Israel A&P Biden UKDef ISW Habeck Ash GaslitNation Panyi Lautman
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
General Staff: Ukraine downs 24 Russian drones, 1 missile. Russian forces attacked Ukraine the night of Nov. 3 with 38 Shahed drones and one X-59 missile. Air defense units intercepted 24 of the drones and shot down the missile.
The Russian forces are striking Ukrainian infrastructure and towns and villages relentlessly in this period—air defence is active in 10 regions. Russia's biggest drone strike in weeks hits Ukrainian infrastructure. Russia launched its largest drone attack on Ukraine for weeks early on Friday, hitting critical infrastructure in the west and south of Ukraine and destroying private houses and commercial buildings in Kharkiv.
The Ukrainian air force said it shot down 24 “Shahed” drones out of 40 launched by Russia, with Kharkiv, Odesa, Kherson, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv among the targets.
Russian shelling in Kherson has interrupted water and electricity supply in parts of the city, Suspilne reports. It cites the head of the city administration saying “Repair crews are working, electricity is planned to be restored during the day.”
Ukraine announces evacuation of 275 children from Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian authorities have mandated the evacuation of 275 children and their families from 66 settlements of Kharkiv Oblast due to a "difficult security situation," the Reintegration Ministry announced on Nov. 2. Russian forces attacked Kherson Oblast with artillery and airstrikes over the past day, killing two men and injuring another.
Russian attacks damaged at least 3428 educational institutions in Ukraine. 365 educational institutions were completely destroyed, reports Save Schools.
Combat Situation Update
Nov 2: The UK’s Ministry of Defence (MOD) has issued its latest defence intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine as of today, that Russian air defence has suffered significant loses.
ISW: Russian troops preparing for new wave of attacks on Avdiivka. Russian forces may be preparing to transition to infantry-led frontal assaults following heavy artillery preparation to compensate for heavy materiel losses in Avdiivka over the course of October.
“The enemy continues to try to encircle Avdiivka, but now not so actively – the enemy is trying to regroup and recover losses in order to attack further,” said Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for Ukraine’s Tavria military command.
Nov 2: Ukrainian forces repelled a new Russian assault near the town of Vuhledar in eastern Donetsk region and continued its attempt to press forward in the south, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday.
Noel Reports: In occupied Sevastopol, there was an explosion close to the thermal power plant. There is a lot of smoke.
Gen Zaluzhny interview by the Economist
Ukraine’s top commander has acknowledged that his forces are locked in a “stalemate” with Russia along a front line that has barely shifted, despite months of fierce fighting, and that no significant breakthrough was imminent. It was the most candid assessment so far by a leading Ukrainian official of the military’s stalled counteroffensive.
“Just like in the First World War, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” the commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, told The Economist. The general said that modern technology and precision weapons on both sides were preventing troops from breaching enemy lines, and called for advances in electronic warfare as a way to break the deadlock.
Behind the Lines
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy is considering the “pros and cons” of holding presidential elections next spring, his foreign minister said. “We are not closing this page. The president of Ukraine is considering and weighing the different pros and cons,” Dmytro Kuleba told a briefing, adding that holding elections during the war with Russia would entail “unprecedented” challenges.
The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights has found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Russia’s armed forces fired the missile that killed 59 civilians attending a funeral reception in the small village of Hroza on October 5, despite the absence of “military personnel or any other legitimate military targets.” Russian forces “either failed to do everything feasible to verify that the target was a military objective, or the deliberately targeted civilians” — a violation of international humanitarian law in either case.
State Bureau of Investigation says it uncovered 'unprecedented' scheme to evade mobilization. An investigation by Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigation (SBR) revealed a widespread scheme in which regional military enlistment offices received bribes in exchange for helping people evade mobilization, the SBR wrote on Nov. 1.
Foreign components were found in the remains of a Russian 40N6 missile, found in the Zaporizhzia region, head of the presidential office Andriy Yermak reports. "The data is shared with our partners to take measures and prevent the supply of these components to Russia," he added.
Polish truckers will block several border crossings with Ukraine starting next week in protest at what they say is Ukrainian hauliers’ free rein in Poland that is hurting their business, a co-organiser of the protest told Reuters.
Ukraine designates Nestle as 'international sponsor of war.' Ukraine's National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NACP) added Nestle to its list of "international sponsors of war," for its continued business in Russia, the agency's press service announced on Nov. 2.
The Japanese company Japan Tobacco International has decided to continue its business in Russia. TASS reports that Sergei Glushkov, director of corporate relations and communications at JTI Russia, spoke about this.
Meanwhile in Russia
Nov 2: Putin signed off on a law revoking Russia's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, a move he says is designed to bring Moscow into line with the US. Russia says that it will not resume testing unless Washington does and that its de-ratification does not change its nuclear posture.
EU condemns Russia's refusal to participate in nuclear test ban treaty. Russia's decision today to revoke its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) jeopardizes the entire international architecture of nuclear non-proliferation and arms control and poses threats to global stability.
Raiffeisen Bank International has said the timing of a sale or spin-off of its extensive operations in Russia is largely out of his control. Russia made up 45% of RBI’s profit in the first nine months of the year, though it reported a 30% decline in the volume of its loans in Russia in the third quarter from a year earlier.
Military intelligence: Car belonging to CEO of Russian weapons manufacturer torched in Russia. A car belonging to the general-director of the Russian arms manufacturer GosNIImash was set aflame in the Russian city of Nizhny Novgorod, allegedly by "representatives of the resistance movement," Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said on Nov. 3.
Media: Russian drone manufacturer to open factory in Uzbekistan. A Russian drone manufacturer plans to open a factory in Uzbekistan's Navoi free economic zone, AFP reported on Nov. 2. The company, Flyseeagro, claims to only produce drones for agricultural purposes.
Russian presidential envoy orders regional officials to provide weekly updates on recruitment efforts, with emphasis on criminals, unemployed people, and migrants.
North Korea is supplying Russia with armaments and ammunition. This explainer by the Ministry of Defence of the UK.
North Korea could transfer short-range ballistic missiles and rockets for man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems to Russia, in addition to artillery shells for the war against Ukraine.
The EU is "deeply concerned" by reports that North Korea has supplied Russia with weapons "for their further use as part of Russia's illegal, unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine", stated EU spokesman for foreign affairs and security policy Peter Stano.
“The EU strongly condemns any such arms transfers. The EU calls on the DPRK and Russia to refrain from any exchanges of military equipment and ammunition and to comply with a number of UN Security Council resolutions... Russia's violation of UN Security Council resolutions, which it itself co-sponsored, and the deepening of ties with the DPRK indicate Russia's growing isolation, desperation and the effectiveness of restrictive measures The EU in relation to Russia,” said Peter Stano.
Allied Support
The Biden administration today added 12 Russian companies to a trade blacklist for supporting Russia’s military with drones that could be used to aid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the commerce department said in a statement.
Official Readout: Today, in coordination with the Department of the Treasury, the Department of State is imposing sanctions to further target individuals and entities associated with Russia’s war effort and other malign activities. The Department is designating multiple defense-related entities and procurement companies in the UAE and Russia working to acquire various components in support of Russia’s war effort.
The Department of State is designating a major entity involved in the development, operation, and ownership of Russia’s key Arctic LNG 2 liquified natural gas (LNG) project. The Department is designating the following entity pursuant to section 1(a)(i) for operating or having operated in the metals and mining sector of the Russian Federation economy.
Official Readout: The United States is sanctioning Ekaterina Zhdanova, a Russian national, for her role in laundering hundreds of millions of dollars using virtual currency on behalf of sanctioned Russian elites. Zhdanova has also provided a range of virtual, cash-based, tax residency and other services to Russian clients seeking to launder funds or obscure the sources of their wealth. Among others, she has provided such services to individuals connected with a ransomware group that U.S. law enforcement identified as a cybercrime threat to healthcare providers in the United States.
Olga and I were guests on Gaslit Nation. In this clip, I’m talking about the recycled tropes and narratives that the Russians have been using since the Soviet period in the 1950s and 1960s—the heyday of the disarmament movement. I sound better after a few drinks…
White House to reveal new $425 million Ukraine aid package. The U.S. plans to unveil a $425 million aid package for Ukraine which will include counter-drone capabilities and other munitions, officials told Reuters on Nov. 2.
Top Republicans push for longer-range weapons for Ukraine. Four senior Republicans in the U.S. House and Senate signed a letter urging President Joe Biden to send longer-range weapons to Ukraine, Reuters reported on Nov. 2. "Ukraine's requirement for deep-strike capability remains urgent, particularly to range targets throughout Crimea," the letter read.
Ukrinform: APCs, drones, radars: Germany sends another military aid package to Ukraine. Germany has handed over another military aid package to Ukraine, including two air surveillance radars TRML-4D for the IRIS-T system. In the photo, Kuleba meets with top Reinmetall directors about ammunition and armaments.
Netherlands to provide Ukraine with 500 million euros in ammunition. The Netherlands will supply Ukraine with "significant amounts" of ammunition worth 500 million euros ($532 million), Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said during her visit to Kyiv, as reported by Het Parool media outlet.
Ukraine can probably expect a positive signal during the EU summit in December. "The heart of Europe beats in Kyiv. We want to see Ukraine as a member of our Union. And I am convinced that the European Council will send this signal this December," Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany, Annalena Baerbock said.
The International Court of Arbitration in The Hague has fully satisfied DTEK's claim against Russia for the seized assets in the illegally annexed Crimea. The tribunal ordered Russia to pay $267 million in damages, interest and legal costs
Speaker Mike Johnson told Republican Senators that his members a will hold vote on a funding package that pairs US border security with new Ukraine aid. The package will come up for a vote as soon as lawmakers pass the $14.5 billion Israel aid package.
"We have not recorded any cases of theft of military aid in Ukraine," - US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. According to her, Vоlоdуmуr Zelenskуy, the government and parliament are taking many steps, including investigating the affairs of high-ranking officials and members of parliament, to combat corruption. She stressed that a third of the embassy staff is focused on monitoring aid.
Around the World
NYT: Israeli soldiers have encircled Gaza City, the Israeli military said yesterday, waging “face-to-face battles” with Hamas as they push forward with what officials have predicted will be a long and bloody ground invasion.
As the ground invasion has escalated and airstrikes have continued, Israel has come under increasing international pressure to cease the campaign, or at least temporarily pause the fighting with Hamas, to allow humanitarian aid into the enclave.
White House officials said that when the secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, arrives in Israel today he will urge the Israeli government to agree to a series of brief cessations of military operations in Gaza. The “humanitarian pauses,” as American officials are calling them, are meant to allow for hostages to be released safely and for aid to be distributed. The request is different from an overall cease-fire, which the Biden administration believes would benefit Hamas.
NYT: Secretary of State Antony Blinken will urge Israel to periodically pause its attacks on Gaza to allow hostages to be released and humanitarian aid to be distributed, White House officials said. The officials said the pauses would be far different from an overall cease-fire, which the Biden administration believes would benefit Hamas by allowing it to recover from Israel’s bombardment.
WSJ: Wagner Group may supply air defense systems to Hezbollah. Wagner Group may be providing Pantsir anti-aircraft systems to the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, U.S. sources told the Wall Street Journal on Nov. 2. According to one unnamed U.S. official, the transfer is still unconfirmed, and the situation is still being monitored.
It's almost four weeks since the horrific terrorist attack on Israel. A lot has happened, the public debate has become heated and confused. Find thoughts from Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck in the video, putting the events in context.
Timothy Ash, The Sky-High Costs of Abandoning Ukraine
What if Western support evaporates so that Ukraine either loses the war or the peace?
Ukrainian defeat in the war against Russian aggression would be a catastrophic failure for the West on numerous fronts, but particularly from an economic perspective.
First, if Russian troops were able to drive through Ukraine and reach the border with Poland, it is likely that tens of millions of Ukrainians would flee westward. As we have already seen with prior migrant flows, this would impose huge economic, social, and political risks on Europe.
Second, it would be profoundly reckless for the West to assume that having captured Ukraine, Putin would stop there.
The risk would be of further moves west, against the Baltic states, and elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe. (This effective surrender of former communist satellite states is essentially what Putin demanded in December 2021, just before launching the all-out war.)
Remember this would be an emboldened, and economically strengthened Russia fresh from a colonial land grab into Ukraine. The West likely would need to counter this threat by boosting defense spending, well beyond the 2% of GDP current target for NATO and likely back to the 3% level maintained for much of the Cold War period — if that sounds small, consider also that it’s a 50% rise on current levels for debt-burdened NATO states.
