Nov 5- The Saturday Edition
Day 255: ISW, Kharkiv, Kherson, Donetsk, EU energy, Russian looters, Iran, Chorna, Sullivan, Turkey, NK, Wintershall-A&Ps-Zelensky, Liubakova, Tokariuk, Amanpour, FrontlineAP, Davis, Ben-Ghiat
Catching up…
EA Worldview’s Ukraine Up-date- hop over to Scott’s amazing hourly Ukraine up-date page. I’ll fill in with some bits and bobs.
Stories we’re following…
ISW- Key Takeaways
The Russian military is likely trying to use mobilized personnel to restart its Donetsk offensive but will likely fail to achieve operationally significant gains.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.
Russian forces continued to prepare existing and new defensive lines in Kherson Oblast, and offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
Russian forces continued forced evacuation measures in Kherson Oblast, and to set measures for the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.
The Ukrainian foreign ministry has claimed its forces have killed another 600 Russian soldiers in the last 24 hours. Over the past 10 days, the Russian forces have been decimated on the battlefield in large numbers, but they will continue to recruit forces in view of the winter campaign. This will likely weigh on the Russian economy and generate social tensions, according to ISW.
Reznikov: Russia may withdraw forces from parts of Kherson. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Nov. 4. that he believes Russia may withdraw its forces from parts of Kherson Oblast. However, he warned that Russia’s so-called “gestures of goodwill” must be taken with a grain of salt, referring back to Russian forces’ withdrawals from Kyiv Oblast and Snake Island.
Russian troops are allegedly searching for residents in Kherson who are refusing to evacuate the Russian-controlled territory, ahead of its forces potentially withdrawing from the west bank of the Dnieper river.
Scheduled power cuts will take place today in seven Ukrainian oblasts, and major cities. The consumption limits are necessary to “avoid repeated accidents after the power grids were damaged by Russian rocket and drone attacks,” state-owned grid operator Ukrenergo said in a Facebook post.
CNN: 1,300 Starlinks in Ukraine go offline due to funding issues. Ukraine’s fears that its military will lose access to the Starlink internet service deepened after 1,300 satellite units went offline, CNN reported, citing two anonymous sources familiar with the issue.
The US has accused the Russia of wanting to “freeze” Ukraine into submission since it has failed to win on the battlefield. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said on Friday after G7 foreign ministers met in Germany: “President Putin seems to have decided that if he can’t seize Ukraine by force, he will try to freeze it into submission.” Yesterday, G7 top diplomats agreed on a structure to funnel aid to Ukraine to replace infrastructure targeted by Russia.
Luke Harding: “Things are disappearing in the Ukrainian city of Kherson at a rapid rate. Some are physical objects. Russian troops are taking away ambulances, tractors and stolen private cars. Cultural things are going too: archives, and paintings and sculptures from the art and local lore museums. Even the bones of Catherine the Great’s friend and lover, Grigory Potemkin, have been grubbed up from a crypt in St Catherine’s cathedral and spirited away.”
Financial Times: Collaborators publicly hang woman for speaking out against Russia. Pro-Russian collaborators allegedly hanged local nurse Tetiana Mudrenko, 56, in what was a public execution on the streets of occupied Skadovsk in Kherson Oblast, Financial Times wrote, citing the sister of the deceased and several witnesses. Mudrenko was executed after she denounced police officers for collaborating with Russia and cried out, "Skadovsk is Ukraine!"
Iran admits sending drones to Russia for first time: Reuters, reports comments by Iran’s foreign minister who says that the country did supply drones to Russia, but has claimed that it happened before the invasion of Ukraine. The Iranian foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, said a “small number” of drones were supplied to Russia a few months before Moscow’s forces invaded Ukraine on 24 February. He denied Tehran that was continuing to supply drones to Moscow.
Iran announced Saturday the successful test flight of a rocket capable of propelling satellites into space, three months after launching a satellite with the help of Russia.
Russian occupying forces loot Kherson art museum. Under the guise of "evacuation," armed men dressed in civilian clothing looted the Oleksiy Shovkunenko Kherson Art Museum over the course of four days, the museum's administration said in a Facebook post.
US National Security Advisor arrives in Kyiv on unannounced visit. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan arrived in Kyiv on Nov. 4 to meet with President’s Office Head Andriy Yermak, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement.
President Zelensky has thanked the Netherlands, Czech Republic and US for the 90 T-72 tanks it will receive. They have been described as “the most advanced on the battlefield”, and come alongside a US aid package that includes funding to upgrade American Hawk air defence missiles.
Turkey will not formally approve Finland and Sweden’s membership of Nato until the two countries take the necessary “steps”, President Erdogan has told the head of the alliance, Jens Stoltenberg. Ankara has accused the two Nordic nations of providing a safe haven for outlawed Kurdish militants it deems “terrorists” and held back on ratifying their Nato membership despite an agreement in June. Sweden’s new prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, is to visit Ankara on Tuesday to meet with Erdogan in a trip Stockholm hopes will lead to Turkey’s approval.
Via AFP, North Korea continues to raise tensions: it has launched 4 short-range ballistic missiles towards sea, reports South Korean military. The South Korean military detected the launches "from Tongrim, North Pyongan Province, to the West Sea at around 11:32 a.m. to 11:59 a.m. today", the country's Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.
Spiegel and ZDF discover that a joint venture of German energy giant Wintershall sells gas condensate to the the biggest fuel supplier of the Russian air force. Wintershall was also one of the companies behind the Nord Stream project. According to research by SPIEGEL and ZDF, Wintershall Dea joint ventures have flushed the equivalent of hundreds of millions of euros in taxes into Vladimir Putin's war chest since the attack on Ukraine.
The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is conducting joint maritime exercises with the Russian naval forces in Durban this week amid international and national criticism.
Sullivan & Locke, What happened in the Russia-Ukraine war this week? Catch up with the must-read news and analysis- The Guardian
A comprehensive article reviewing all the articles and news from this week in Russia’s war in Ukraine: Pjotr Sauer, Peter Beaumont, Andrew Roth, Dan Sabbagh, Luke Harding, Isobel Koshiw, Patrick Wintour, Daniel Boffey
How the Russians ran a ‘cleansing’ operation in Bucha, AP-PBS-Frontline-SITU Research
The Associated Press and FrontlinePBS obtained hundreds of hours of CCTV footage and intercepts of audio calls by Russian soldiers that show what a Russian "cleansing" operation looked like.
Daniel Treisman, What Could Bring Putin Down? Foreign Affairs
Meltdown is certainly not inevitable. But if it happens, how would it play out? As problems intensify, they would likely exacerbate each other. Further battlefield losses would heighten conflict among the Kremlin factions, both in Moscow offices and on the Internet. Protests over mobilization would likely mushroom as conscripts die at the front, potentially merging with demonstrations over wage arrears or layoffs.
As local hotspots flare up, governors might improvise, trying to solve problems—their own and those of their regions. Businesses and criminal groups would try to exploit the distraction of law enforcement. All this would drive down Putin’s approval rating, which stood at 79 percent in late October. The Kremlin might ban publication of such ratings, but if so, people would assume that Putin’s support had fallen even further. Narrow and localized protests are not too difficult to manage. But as they spread, the task gets trickier. Violent repression prompts two contradictory reactions: fear and outrage.
Doug Heye, I helped run the ‘Fire Pelosi’ effort. Our toxic politics goes too far- WaPo
As communications director for the Republican National Committee in the 2010 election cycle, I was part of the “Fire Pelosi” campaign, launched on the day the House of Representatives passed the Affordable Care Act. Obamacare squeaked through thanks to the efforts of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).
We set up a fundraising website with a picture of Pelosi engulfed in flames (fire, get it?) to unseat her as speaker with a GOP takeover of the House. After we pulled in $1 million more than our initial goal of $400,000, we launched a Fire Pelosi bus tour that visited each of the Lower 48 states. Our success felt like a political gift.
